Top Horse Analytics: 12/01/2014 Weekly Statistics

[Augenj]

Welcome to a subset of the weekly statistics produced by Top Horse Analytics. Updated win stats will be posted here weekly for Favorites, Morning Line Favorites, Top Horse, and Conditional Top Horse* for all of the active and paused tracks we analyze.

THA Active Tracks: AQU, CD, DMR, GPW,TAM
THA Paused Tracks: SA
THA Inactive Tracks: BEL, GP, KEE, OP, SAR

Active - currently active tracks.
Paused - between meets in a logical year.
Inactive - between logical years.

* What is a Conditional Top Horse?
It is the calculated Top Horse (100.0000) joined with conditional factors (filters) such as Race Age 2, Horse Is 3YO in 3UP Race, 2nd Race After 45 Days Off, and many more. Each conditional factor is also paired with its opposite "Not" condition, such as Race Not Age 2, etc. The selected conditional factors for the Top Horse have shown the best persistent (year-to-year) ROI and have occured at least 30 times during the previous logical year.

The following statistics simulate betting $2.00 to win from the start of the current logical year to the present for all active and paused tracks.

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At AQU
Start Of Logical Year: 10/29/2014
Updated Through: 11/30/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 234
Number Of Wins: 81
Win Per Cent: 34.62
Dollars In: 468.00
Dollars Out: 368.50
Profit: -99.50
ROI: 0.7874

M/L Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 97.44
Number Of Races: 228 *
Number Of Wins: 72
Win Per Cent: 31.58
Dollars In: 456.00
Dollars Out: 354.00
Profit: -102.00
ROI: 0.7763
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 234
Number Of Wins: 70
Win Per Cent: 29.91
Dollars In: 468.00
Dollars Out: 391.80
Profit: -76.20
ROI: 0.8372

Top Horse When Favorite At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 57.26
Number Of Races: 134
Number Of Wins: 52
Win Per Cent: 38.81
Dollars In: 268.00
Dollars Out: 213.20
Profit: -54.80
ROI: 0.7955

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 64.10
Number Of Races: 150
Number Of Wins: 52
Win Per Cent: 34.67
Dollars In: 300.00
Dollars Out: 229.90
Profit: -70.10
ROI: 0.7663

Conditional Top Horse At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 27.35
Number Of Races: 64
Number Of Wins: 25
Win Per Cent: 39.06
Dollars In: 128.00
Dollars Out: 174.30
Profit: 46.30
ROI: 1.3617

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At CD
Start Of Logical Year: 04/26/2014
Updated Through: 11/30/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 742
Number Of Wins: 284
Win Per Cent: 38.27
Dollars In: 1484.00
Dollars Out: 1321.40
Profit: -162.60
ROI: 0.8904

M/L Favorites At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 97.57
Number Of Races: 724 *
Number Of Wins: 240
Win Per Cent: 33.15
Dollars In: 1448.00
Dollars Out: 1152.00
Profit: -296.00
ROI: 0.7956
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 742
Number Of Wins: 204
Win Per Cent: 27.49
Dollars In: 1484.00
Dollars Out: 1162.00
Profit: -322.00
ROI: 0.7830

Top Horse When Favorite At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 53.50
Number Of Races: 397
Number Of Wins: 149
Win Per Cent: 37.53
Dollars In: 794.00
Dollars Out: 645.20
Profit: -148.80
ROI: 0.8126

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 57.01
Number Of Races: 423
Number Of Wins: 146
Win Per Cent: 34.52
Dollars In: 846.00
Dollars Out: 651.60
Profit: -194.40
ROI: 0.7702

Conditional Top Horse At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 9.70
Number Of Races: 72
Number Of Wins: 28
Win Per Cent: 38.89
Dollars In: 144.00
Dollars Out: 155.40
Profit: 11.40
ROI: 1.0792

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At DMR
Start Of Logical Year: 07/17/2014
Updated Through: 11/30/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 454
Number Of Wins: 140
Win Per Cent: 30.84
Dollars In: 908.00
Dollars Out: 739.00
Profit: -169.00
ROI: 0.8139

M/L Favorites At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 454 *
Number Of Wins: 125
Win Per Cent: 27.53
Dollars In: 908.00
Dollars Out: 708.00
Profit: -200.00
ROI: 0.7797
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 454
Number Of Wins: 110
Win Per Cent: 24.23
Dollars In: 908.00
Dollars Out: 687.60
Profit: -220.40
ROI: 0.7573

Top Horse When Favorite At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 47.58
Number Of Races: 216
Number Of Wins: 72
Win Per Cent: 33.33
Dollars In: 432.00
Dollars Out: 352.20
Profit: -79.80
ROI: 0.8153

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 47.14
Number Of Races: 214
Number Of Wins: 66
Win Per Cent: 30.84
Dollars In: 428.00
Dollars Out: 332.00
Profit: -96.00
ROI: 0.7757

Conditional Top Horse At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 22.91
Number Of Races: 104
Number Of Wins: 41
Win Per Cent: 39.42
Dollars In: 208.00
Dollars Out: 249.00
Profit: 41.00
ROI: 1.1971

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At GPW
Start Of Logical Year: 10/08/2014
Updated Through: 11/30/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 440
Number Of Wins: 144
Win Per Cent: 32.73
Dollars In: 880.00
Dollars Out: 686.50
Profit: -193.50
ROI: 0.7801

M/L Favorites At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 99.55
Number Of Races: 438 *
Number Of Wins: 110
Win Per Cent: 25.11
Dollars In: 876.00
Dollars Out: 567.30
Profit: -308.70
ROI: 0.6476
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 440
Number Of Wins: 108
Win Per Cent: 24.55
Dollars In: 880.00
Dollars Out: 694.30
Profit: -185.70
ROI: 0.7890

Top Horse When Favorite At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 49.77
Number Of Races: 219
Number Of Wins: 70
Win Per Cent: 31.96
Dollars In: 438.00
Dollars Out: 304.30
Profit: -133.70
ROI: 0.6947

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 48.86
Number Of Races: 215
Number Of Wins: 62
Win Per Cent: 28.84
Dollars In: 430.00
Dollars Out: 292.30
Profit: -137.70
ROI: 0.6798

Conditional Top Horse At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 29.09
Number Of Races: 128
Number Of Wins: 50
Win Per Cent: 39.06
Dollars In: 256.00
Dollars Out: 369.60
Profit: 113.60
ROI: 1.4438

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At SA
Start Of Logical Year: 09/26/2014
Updated Through: 11/02/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 228
Number Of Wins: 74
Win Per Cent: 32.46
Dollars In: 456.00
Dollars Out: 363.40
Profit: -92.60
ROI: 0.7969

M/L Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 98.25
Number Of Races: 224 *
Number Of Wins: 70
Win Per Cent: 31.25
Dollars In: 448.00
Dollars Out: 371.40
Profit: -76.60
ROI: 0.8290
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 228
Number Of Wins: 58
Win Per Cent: 25.44
Dollars In: 456.00
Dollars Out: 341.20
Profit: -114.80
ROI: 0.7482

Top Horse When Favorite At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 59.21
Number Of Races: 135
Number Of Wins: 46
Win Per Cent: 34.07
Dollars In: 270.00
Dollars Out: 216.60
Profit: -53.40
ROI: 0.8022

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 56.58
Number Of Races: 129
Number Of Wins: 45
Win Per Cent: 34.88
Dollars In: 258.00
Dollars Out: 212.40
Profit: -45.60
ROI: 0.8233

Conditional Top Horse At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 14.04
Number Of Races: 32
Number Of Wins: 11
Win Per Cent: 34.38
Dollars In: 64.00
Dollars Out: 80.80
Profit: 16.80
ROI: 1.2625

[Augenj]

Weekly Stats For Current Year At TAM
Start Of Logical Year: 11/29/2014
Updated Through: 11/29/2014
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 10
Number Of Wins: 2
Win Per Cent: 20.00
Dollars In: 20.00
Dollars Out: 10.60
Profit: -9.40
ROI: 0.5300

M/L Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 10 *
Number Of Wins: 3
Win Per Cent: 30.00
Dollars In: 20.00
Dollars Out: 19.80
Profit: -0.20
ROI: 0.9900
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 10
Number Of Wins: 1
Win Per Cent: 10.00
Dollars In: 20.00
Dollars Out: 5.60
Profit: -14.40
ROI: 0.2800

Top Horse When Favorite At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 60.00
Number Of Races: 6
Number Of Wins: 0
Win Per Cent: 0.00
Dollars In: 12.00
Dollars Out: 0.00
Profit: -12.00
ROI: 0.0000

Top Horse When M/L Favorite At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 60.00
Number Of Races: 6
Number Of Wins: 0
Win Per Cent: 0.00
Dollars In: 12.00
Dollars Out: 0.00
Profit: -12.00
ROI: 0.0000

Conditional Top Horse At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 0.00
Number Of Races: 0
Number Of Wins: 0
Win Per Cent: 0.00
Dollars In: 0.00
Dollars Out: 0.00
Profit: 0.00
ROI: 0.0000

[saddle sore]

You had 562 views in your poll and suggestion thing. Can you explain why the low turnout of votes (18). :confused:...If these people vote in the general election no wonder why this country is messed up. :lol:

[saddle sore]

You had 562 views in your poll and suggestion thing. Can you explain why the low turnout of votes (18). :confused:...If these people vote in the general election no wonder why this country is messed up. :lol:.......I mean the 562 views. :)

[Augenj]

You had 562 views in your poll and suggestion thing. Can you explain why the low turnout of votes (18). :confused:...If these people vote in the general election no wonder why this country is messed up. :lol:
I think people participate in polls when they have at least some feeling about the subject. In this case, THA doesn't mean squat to the vast majority on PA. :D

[saddle sore]

I've never seen so much information. You are the hardest working man in show business. :)

[Augenj]

I've never seen so much information. You are the hardest working man in show business. :)
Except for a few manual entries in Results, it's all done by computer using Equibase data through a third party. Of course, the computer has been programmed by me over the last 3 years and is still evolving. ;)

[saddle sore]

How much actual time do you spend on doing 4 or 5 racetracks that day? From your reply it doesn't sound like much...All the information is in your computer so you just push a button and it spits out the top numbers?

[Augenj]

How much actual time do you spend on doing 4 or 5 racetracks that day? From your reply it doesn't sound like much...All the information is in your computer so you just push a button and it spits out the top numbers?
It goes something like this: (boring and more than you wanted to know)
* Download yesterday's results for all tracks in CSV format.
* Download today's past performances for all tracks in CSV format.
* Make an initial pre-scratch run on all tracks with the THA forecast program.
* Copy generated private and public forecast files to my board in private and public forums.
* When scratches become available at Equibase, apply changes to races using the THA forecast program.
* Again copy generated private and public forecast files to my board in private and public forums.
* Copy generated public forecast files to Pace Advantage Selections forum.
* Bet a million dollars on my picks. :D
* When the results are in at Equibase, manually update pre-generated results files for each track.
* Copy results files to my board and the topic at Pace Advantage.

Running the THA forecast program is easy and quick. It's all the other stuff that takes the time, usually about 3 hours total for both the picks and the results. Of course, the THA forecast program is a small part of the THA system. Others build data bases, analyze them, and optimize parameters for the forecast program and a "brutally honest" totals program.

[saddle sore]

3 hours is not long....You ever watch Shark Tank with Mark Cuban and all the other billionaires....Well people come on the show with ideas and there looking for investors so usually there looking for money and a stake in there company.....I'll tell ya what...I will give you 50.000 thousand dollars plus you give me 51% ownership of the THA company....With the 50 grand you can build a greater THA computer plus you can use to advertise better then what you have now....So what do ya say...PARTNER. :)

[Augenj]

The three hours is just the beginning. I have weekly and yearly procedures that I run also. In addition, I'm brainstorming (fried brain) to improve the results (profit). I spend the rest of the time coding and testing my fried brain ideas. This thing is nowhere near done so I'm not quite in the market for a partner, partner. :D