Clark Handicap Analysis and wager

[zico20]

An interesting race since there will be no big favorite in here.

Hoppertunity-Had his prep and is ready for a break out race. The talent is there and this is a weak grade 1. My top selection

Departing-Looks to be a cinch for the tri or super. Beats Pick of the Litter this time.

Pick of the Litter-cheaper horse who is 5-5 at CD for the super

Easter Gift- Ran 3rd last year. Have to think whatever went wrong over the summer has been corrected.

Knights Nation- The long shot special for the ass end of the super. Loves CD and probably never should have been on the turf that long.

Constitution- Will try to beat him for the first three spots. Not convinced of his talent. This race will decide where he belongs further down the line.

Prayer for Relief-Hates CD 0-4 in the money. Departing beat him at CD easily when this one was in top form.

Protonico- Believe slop aided this one last time out. Must prove he can run decently against good horses on a fast track.

Looking Cool- Should stay in claiming races. Avoid

The bet:

:1: :4: with :1: :4: :9: with :1: :3: :4: :5: :9: with :1: :3: :4: :5: :7: :9:

72 dollars for a 2 dollar bet. If it comes in the best way it would pay over a grand. Worst way probably 200.

[Robert Fischer]

Clark Handicap Analysis and wager

I love Hoppertunity here. He's razor sharp, and should enjoy the added distance.
I also feel that Departure is vulnerable here in the win slot, as well as the place slot. He hasn't run with as much authority in the stretch lately.
I do like Constitution to bounce back here. He doesn't offer a ton of value but the pace scenario should be kind to his style, and he should be in shape after the embarrassing come-back effort.
Finally, Easter Gift is a potential value contender on the improve.
:1: :7: :5: :4: :6:

WPS
$15win $45plc $100shw on 1 Hoppertunity =$160

Exacta
$10ex 1 w/57 = $20
$8ex 57 w/1 = $16
$1ex 157 w/157 = $6
(total = $42)

Trifecta (key Departing)
(.50)157 with 157 with 4 = $3
($1) 1 with 57 with 4 =$2
(total = $5)

Superfecta (key Departing)
20cent 157 157 1567 4 = $2.40
20cent 157 157 4 1567 = $2.40
(total = $4.80)

Multi-race
race10 Daily Doubles:
$3 dbl 1,2,10 w/ 1(hop) = $9
$1 dbl 1,2,10 w/ 5,7 = $6
(total double = $15)

Grand Total = $226.80

[Tom]

I don't think Hoppertunity is the horse I want going 9 furlongs. HTR rates low in the filed on pedigree and his one try at is he, lost ground int he stretch.
I look at 9 furlongs today like I used to look at 10 furlongs. I thing 8.5 is the limit for most horses.

Prayer for Relief - 0 for 10, and according to the stewards, the crowding at the break in the Classic did not affect the outcome of the race, so I can't forgive that race. :rolleyes:

Knight's Nation - not with your money.

Departing - exacta finished 5 for 9 at 9 furlongs, sharp race last out, looks to have circled back - hoping today is not the funeral.

Easter Gift - taking the same Sar-Bel route to this race as he did last year, where he showed good improvement. My Long shot in here, good turn time, could keep on going after having first run at the speed.

Protonico - last race in the slop was his best closing effort - take that one and I can't get him close at the end. I spent a lot of time on this guy but I can't take his race seriously. Should lead the first two calls, but can't see him going all the way unless the track is carrying speed. Dangerous velocity pattern and I may regret not using him. Wont be the first time, nor the last.

Looking Cool - good joke putting this claimer in here. Hope it's not on me! :D

Pick of the Litter - 4 for 7 at 9 furlongs, good form, 4 exacta finished from 5 on CD dirt.

My plays - :9: Pick of the Litter and :5: Easter Gift, :4: Departing my third pick.

[arw629]

I don't have a strong opinion on this race....I didn't like Constitution in his last race because I thought the track and race flow would be against him....That being said he was supposed to win that race when the backers bet him down to 2-5......I would like Hopportunity more if he was stabled on the east coast....I just hate taking shippers across the country at short odds.....it's comparable to taking the Broncos favored in Foxboro....it doesn't work out on the field like it does on paper.....I'll be taking a small shot with the other Pletcher horse Protonico as well as Chad Brown's Easter Gift....

[raybo]

Here are my top 4 ranked contenders for today's Clark Handicap (G1 1 1/8m Dirt) at Churchill Downs. These are based on running styles and total velocity for the 3 fractional segments:

# - Name -- (RS,Q#) - (Ttl Vel) -- (last race perf, cycle/imp or dec, days off)

5 Easter Gift ---(P0) --(169.89)--- ( - , 4+, 47 )
6 Protonico ---- (P2) --(169.70)--- ( best, 3+, 27 )
4 Departing ---- (P0) --(169.34)-- ( - , 2+, 34 )
1 Hoppertunity (S0) --(167.82)-- ( poor, 1=, 30 )

Good luck!!

[classhandicapper]

Constitution and Hoppertunity are pretty likely to be better than these if they remain healthy and keep developing. The question is how close to 100% they are after only one prep against much weaker.

I haven't see all the races today, but the few I saw looked like outside moves were doing well.

[DeltaLover]

What do you think about the :2: Prayer of Relief?

Why Dale Romans have him in the race? Is really the :9: his best shot in the race?

[raybo]

What do you think about the :2: Prayer of Relief?

Why Dale Romans have him in the race? Is really the :9: his best shot in the race?

Prayer For Relief is almost 7 years old, and based on their recent races, yes, Pick Of The Litter is his best shot.

[cj]

Constitution projects to have a pretty easy lead, and Pletcher doesn't really believe in using many races as preps.

[cj]

Constitution projects to have a pretty easy lead, and Pletcher doesn't really believe in using many races as preps.

That said, 2-1 is silly, don't want any part of that.

[Tom]

PFR could win, but he has shown a lack of ability for along time now - he can't get the job done.

Now, having said that, run to the windows and bet the farm! :D

[Tom]

Prayer For Relief is almost 7 years old, and based on their recent races, yes, Pick Of The Litter is his best shot.

And at :14: - :1: :eek:

[Tom]

Hey anytime you guys want some handicapping advice, feel free to ask me! :blush: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I don't think Hoppertunity is the horse I want going 9 furlongs. HTR rates low in the filed on pedigree and his one try at is he, lost ground int he stretch.
I look at 9 furlongs today like I used to look at 10 furlongs. I thing 8.5 is the limit for most horses.

Protonico - last race in the slop was his best closing effort - take that one and I can't get him close at the end. I spent a lot of time on this guy but I can't take his race seriously. Should lead the first two calls, but can't see him going all the way unless the track is carrying speed. Dangerous velocity pattern and I may regret not using him. Wont be the first time, nor the last.

[Robert Fischer]

Grand Total = $226.80

Returned = $321.50

[arw629]

That might have been the most generous paying tri-fecta of all time....essentially 4 throw outs leaving a field of 5 and it comes baffert, pletcher, pletcher in a grade 1 race and pays $150 for a buck

[arw629]

Maybe churchill downs lowered their takeout rate? lmao

[menifee]

Man, that was a weak G1. Given that the BC Classic was comparatively weak to years past, I guess it is not surprising. I wouldn't touch any of those horses coming back.

[Some_One]

The BC Classic was pretty good (121 rating on TimeformUS, BC Sprint was 119, Woodward 117, Whitney 120, Met Mile 121), the Hollywood Derby is a very weak G1

[raybo]

Man, that was a weak G1. Given that the BC Classic was comparatively weak to years past, I guess it is not surprising. I wouldn't touch any of those horses coming back.

It was weak, regarding pace. There was only one horse who could be considered an "E" horse with a "4" Quirin number, but his early speed wasn't close to being the fastest in the race. All the rest were "P" and "S" horses, and the next highest Q number was a 2. The pace of this race was indeed very slow and the field stayed bunched most of the way. My wife watched the replay and remarked that "it looks like it's in slow motion" - LOL. The makeup of the race produced a very boring, uninspiring, and slow race.

[cj]

The BC Classic was pretty good (121 rating on TimeformUS, BC Sprint was 119, Woodward 117, Whitney 120, Met Mile 121), the Hollywood Derby is a very weak G1

Top 3 yesterday rated 114, 113, 113 by TimeformUS.