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View Full Version : Did Anyone Predict This?


badcompany
11-27-2014, 08:51 AM
I sure didn't and I don't recall anyone making this call a year ago:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/5215CD8F-529A-41A9-A29E-7BF70464E80A_zps3ipixqdp.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/5215CD8F-529A-41A9-A29E-7BF70464E80A_zps3ipixqdp.png.html)

badcompany
11-27-2014, 02:51 PM
Wow!

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E788BE2A-E9C7-49FF-AE6D-760571B32359_zpsyxm0wjqm.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/E788BE2A-E9C7-49FF-AE6D-760571B32359_zpsyxm0wjqm.png.html)

_______
11-27-2014, 03:04 PM
No cut in production from OPEC.

badcompany
11-27-2014, 03:21 PM
I shorted OIL a week ago. Was early to the dance and got stopped out. I fired a second bullet on Tuesday. Looks like it's gonna pay off.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/d64f185bf1f153bc17320c3afe115c8a_zps2ab7da46.jpg

_______
11-27-2014, 03:23 PM
You are probably looking forward to the open Friday as much as I am dreading it, lol.

Greyfox
11-27-2014, 03:33 PM
No cut in production from OPEC.

With allies like Saudis, who needs enemies?

lamboguy
11-27-2014, 03:42 PM
i didn't predict that or the 10 year bond below 3% for 6 years already. i didn't think the dollar would be above 70, i didn't think the housing market was ever going to come back, the unemployment rate below 7% and the price of gold below $2000 for so long.

badcompany
12-15-2014, 04:00 PM
This is turning out to be the best short term trade I've ever made.

I've been thinking, for the past week, that it's gotta bounce, but it just keeps going down. I guess there were a lot of suckers trying to catch the falling knife.

I would love to see how much the Saudis, themselves, have intervened in the market:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/BBED1E5A-1960-4381-BDED-70188D348307_zpsj0v5i9vm.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/BBED1E5A-1960-4381-BDED-70188D348307_zpsj0v5i9vm.png.html)

ReplayRandall
12-15-2014, 04:47 PM
i didn't predict that or the 10 year bond below 3% for 6 years already. i didn't think the dollar would be above 70, i didn't think the housing market was ever going to come back, the unemployment rate below 7% and the price of gold below $2000 for so long.


That's what $4 Trillion of printed monopoly money being pumped into Wall Street will do......BTW, not a true representation of the unemployment rate given by the Govt. versus reality......

reckless
12-15-2014, 07:01 PM
With allies like Saudis, who needs enemies?

Why are you insinuating that the Saudis are our enemies. They do consider the US shale oil industry an enemy, yes, but in my opinion, their willingness to blow apart the world oil markets is to battle against their real enemies such as Iran.

When those smaller world oil producers like Venezuela, Iran, Libya and the oil producers in Africa go belly up, the price should then stabilize and the Saudis will be the lone big producer again.

In the USA, some shale and smaller e&p companies will suffer, and when the bargain oil price is right, mid sized companies buy the baby ones, and the majors buy the mid sized companies. Marathon, Philips, Imperial, Anadarko, EOG and Apache will be gone in all probability in a few years.

(As a side note, the lower world price of oil, thanks to the Saudis overproducing and a lack of demand as I see it, plus the production prowess of US oil companies here will make it a lot tougher for the real world's enemies to continue to fund their terrorism and mayhem.)

tanner12oz
12-15-2014, 08:56 PM
I really want to buy rig but it just keeps dropping

badcompany
12-17-2014, 01:01 PM
That's it for the oil trade. It was fun while it lasted.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/2cd91fe7b50c4540ca2700102554db06_zps228f6c31.jpg

_______
12-17-2014, 05:17 PM
You weren't out with the move yesterday afternoon? I thought about your position when it retrenched after opening lower and wondered if you had been stopped out at that point.

badcompany
12-17-2014, 05:49 PM
You weren't out with the move yesterday afternoon? I thought about your position when it retrenched after opening lower and wondered if you had been stopped out at that point.

I had a wider stop. Yesterday it was 14. Today, it was down to 13.8. That 5% upward spike took me out. I'm sure I wasn't the only as that trade had to be crowded. Volatility usually signals the end of that kind of trade. After yesterday, I figured the end was near.

As an aside, I'm not a big fan of these one day fed driven rallies. They tend to be given back in short order.

plainolebill
12-18-2014, 01:29 AM
I'm not a trader but yesterday when Repsol made an offer for Talisman at 175% of market price I went long E&Ps. It may not be the bottom but the bottom seems a lot closer than the top. CLR, WLL, OXY, COP.

badcompany
12-22-2014, 10:55 AM
Looks like it's Nat Gas' turn to tank.

Unfortunately, I got caught napping on this one and didn't get when I should've last Fri. Such is life.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/EDBD5C31-66B1-4F04-BD16-DE62F7D84358_zpsygujuc75.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/EDBD5C31-66B1-4F04-BD16-DE62F7D84358_zpsygujuc75.png.html)

plainolebill
12-27-2014, 02:35 AM
Sold COP last week and got stopped out of CLR this morning. The surge in E&Ps has flattened out for now. I have a tight trailing stop on WLL but I think I'll hang on to OXY.

Gas is screwed for now, warmer winter than expected so far. Market is oversupplied with natural gas liquids. With oil cheap, European chemical companies can compete - they use naphtha rather than ethane to make plastics. Not looking bullish.

badcompany
12-27-2014, 09:03 AM
I wouldn't be going long on anything oil or gas related until the downward trend clearly reverses.

IMO, the move is to wait for bounces then look for right time to go short, and be ready to fire the second bullet if your timing is initially off.

barn32
12-27-2014, 10:00 AM
As a side note, the lower world price of oil, thanks to the Saudis overproducing...This is something I don't understand. If the Saudis are overproducing
how does that change anything vis--vis oil and gas prices?

I've never had a problem getting gas. There are no long lines
at the pumps. It has always seemed readily available whether
prices are high or low. There seems to be enough oil and gas
in the world. We are always going to buy what we need to buy
whether there is just enough gas and oil or it's piled sky high.

How does overproducing reduce prices?

reckless
12-27-2014, 11:28 AM
This is something I don't understand. If the Saudis are overproducing
how does that change anything vis--vis oil and gas prices?

I've never had a problem getting gas. There are no long lines
at the pumps. It has always seemed readily available whether
prices are high or low. There seems to be enough oil and gas
in the world. We are always going to buy what we need to buy
whether there is just enough gas and oil or it's piled sky high.

How does overproducing reduce prices?

Barn, if you have no problem filling up, with no long lines and prices dropping, that means there is an abundance of oil available. So, when even more oil becomes available, to sell that oil in the marketplace the price will have to drop. The world is currently awash with an abundance of oil, world production seems to be at record levels. Also, demand is currently anemic and will continue to depress big time in 2015.

badcompany
12-27-2014, 05:20 PM
Barn, if you have no problem filling up, with no long lines and prices dropping, that means there is an abundance of oil available. So, when even more oil becomes available, to sell that oil in the marketplace the price will have to drop. The world is currently awash with an abundance of oil, world production seems to be at record levels. Also, demand is currently anemic and will continue to depress big time in 2015.

This was not what the "experts" were saying just a short while ago:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/iea-raises-2014-oil-demand-estimate-as-world-economy-recovers.html


IEA Raises 2014 Oil Demand Estimate as World Economy Recovers

By Grant Smith Mar 14, 2014 5:00 AM ET
Oil demand will be higher in 2014 than previously estimated as global economic growth recovers, the International Energy Agency said. Pressure on supplies will ease in coming months as seasonal consumption dips.

World consumption will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent, this year to a record 92.7 million a day, or about 95,000 a day more than forecast last month, according to the IEA, a Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations. While freezing U.S. weather has eroded oil inventories to their lowest level in more than a decade, fading demand for winter fuels coupled with a 35-year peak in supplies from Iraq will help replenish stockpiles, the agency said.

reckless
12-27-2014, 06:50 PM
This was not what the "experts" were saying just a short while ago:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/iea-raises-2014-oil-demand-estimate-as-world-economy-recovers.html


IEA Raises 2014 Oil Demand Estimate as World Economy Recovers ....

Who are you gonna believe, 'experts' or me ?? :) :)

badcompany
12-27-2014, 08:16 PM
Who are you gonna believe, 'experts' or me ?? :) :)

The oil market seems super rigged. How else do you explain these price movements?

My guess is that oil was temporarily inflated, price-wise, and is now coming back to earth.

http://www.fedprimerate.com/nymex-crude-oil-future-chart.gif

_______
12-27-2014, 10:10 PM
I would argue that we are seeing the transition from cartel pricing to market pricing. North American crude is making a difference.

reckless
12-27-2014, 11:57 PM
I have a feeling when the oil market will hit bottom and make its return upward. I can't predict a date, of course, but it just might happen sooner rather than later.

This reversal in oil will come about not by market forces, not by economic forces, but by geopolitical events.

The price of oil will make its reversal beginning the day Vlad Putin says the following to Europe:

'Russia will no longer supply oil and natural gas to any country that belongs to NATO.'

Since Europe truly cannot survive without Russia's oil and gas this action alone will end the decline in oil. It will also stop the manipulations in the oil futures markets, real or imagined, obviously.

And, then, solely to flex his muscles, Putin will also demand that payment for his oil and gas must be paid in gold, and that, boys and girls, will end all the manipulation in the gold markets and put the coup de gras to the US dollar as a meaningful currency. Gold will go thru the roof since Europe doesn't really have much physical gold on hand. Germany's gold reserve was in the USA and we screwed them over big time. Fort Knox is a sham, but I guess the good people on PA know this already.

But that story will need to be told at a later date. Stay tuned.

_______
12-28-2014, 01:45 AM
Russia needs its European customers at least as much as they need her. The really heavy dependence is in Eastern Europe but overall Europe gets around 35% of it's gas from Russia. It has storage and transit pipelines.

Russia gets 60% of it's national income from gas and oil exports which are mainly to Europe.

Europe would be hurt by a complete cutoff of Russian supply. Russia would be eviserated.

I know people seem to admire the optics Putin projects but he's playing a very weak hand.

plainolebill
12-28-2014, 04:51 AM
I wouldn't be going long on anything oil or gas related until the downward trend clearly reverses.

IMO, the move is to wait for bounces then look for right time to go short, and be ready to fire the second bullet if your timing is initially off.

I've done pretty well on the stocks I bought but I wouldn't buy them again today. Tight stops to preserve gains.

badcompany
12-28-2014, 08:27 AM
I've done pretty well on the stocks I bought but I wouldn't buy them again today. Tight stops to preserve gains.

This company is headquartered in Houston and gets much its revenue from the oil industry. I had owned the stock and did very well until it tanked in October when the market corrected. I held on because it was still showing a profit but when it didn't recover with rest of the market, I smelled a rat and bailed @70. Haven't regretted it for a day.

As Kenny Rogers says, "You gotta know when to hold..."

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/78060B4A-C19D-446B-A242-920D1597092A_zpsxx8p10im.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/78060B4A-C19D-446B-A242-920D1597092A_zpsxx8p10im.png.html)

reckless
12-28-2014, 08:34 AM
Russia needs its European customers at least as much as they need her. The really heavy dependence is in Eastern Europe but overall Europe gets around 35% of it's gas from Russia. It has storage and transit pipelines.

Russia gets 60% of it's national income from gas and oil exports which are mainly to Europe.

Europe would be hurt by a complete cutoff of Russian supply. Russia would be eviserated.

I know people seem to admire the optics Putin projects but he's playing a very weak hand.

Don, the financial story of 2015, imo, will be how the oil-Putin-currency-gold wars play out. I believe these issues will come to the fore this coming year and will be somewhat resolved.

I agree with what you've said, but I also believe that one could never, ever underestimate not only Putin, but mother Russia herself.

Napoleon and Hitler, with 100,000s of hardened soldiers and the best military hardware of the times, made a run at Russia and were both annihilated.

How do think the cowards running NATO -- mostly the USA and UK -- will fare when they push Putin to the brink?

Cameron and Obama are nothing more than sissy boys in a man's world.

_______
12-28-2014, 08:57 PM
The Russian people have certainly demonstrated an inordinate ability to endure suffering. That is likely to be a great benefit to their government in 2015 as a recession looms. Inflation, interest rates, and capital flight are all up. Absent a substantial recovery in the price of oil, the Russian economy in 2015 is going to look a lot like the stagflation we endured in the mid 70's.

They are a mid sized petro state and will endure the boom and bust cycles of the oil economy until they develop a more diversified economy, a better business climate based on rule of law, and better political relations with their natural trading partners.

I will credit the Russian government with managing the negative consequences of sanctions and falling oil prices about as well as possible. But the long term outlook for them isn't positive.

badcompany
12-30-2014, 09:26 AM
The Russian people have certainly demonstrated an inordinate ability to endure suffering. That is likely to be a great benefit to their government in 2015 as a recession looms. Inflation, interest rates, and capital flight are all up. Absent a substantial recovery in the price of oil, the Russian economy in 2015 is going to look a lot like the stagflation we endured in the mid 70's.

They are a mid sized petro state and will endure the boom and bust cycles of the oil economy until they develop a more diversified economy, a better business climate based on rule of law, and better political relations with their natural trading partners.

I will credit the Russian government with managing the negative consequences of sanctions and falling oil prices about as well as possible. But the long term outlook for them isn't positive.

They can always console themselves with this:

http://crow.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Stolichnaya-vodka.jpg

badcompany
01-06-2015, 12:41 PM
I had a wider stop. Yesterday it was 14. Today, it was down to 13.8. That 5% upward spike took me out. I'm sure I wasn't the only as that trade had to be crowded. Volatility usually signals the end of that kind of trade. After yesterday, I figured the end was near.

As an aside, I'm not a big fan of these one day fed driven rallies. They tend to be given back in short order.


The short order was about 3 weeks.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/fd8f36dfb3dd3cf422c4b1718b5c10bd_zpsb215cd64.jpg

lamboguy
01-06-2015, 06:43 PM
still no sign of a pause never mind bottom on oil.

my play for the year is wheat, i am looking for 6.80

with the cold weather throughout the country, nat gas was only able to move 6 cents today.

ReplayRandall
01-27-2015, 07:31 PM
Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today.... :eek:

badcompany
01-27-2015, 07:48 PM
Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today.... :eek:


Cat - Feeling the effects of commodity price drops.

Msft - No one is buying pcs anymore.

_______
01-27-2015, 08:40 PM
Cat - Feeling the effects of commodity price drops.

Msft - No one is buying pcs anymore.

CAT: Commodity price drops x a strong dollar. I know every CEO with a weak quarter will be citing $ strength but in CAT's case I think it's legitimate. I don't know the % but a huge portion of their sales are overseas.

reckless
01-27-2015, 09:03 PM
CAT: Commodity price drops x a strong dollar. I know every CEO with a weak quarter will be citing $ strength but in CAT's case I think it's legitimate. I don't know the % but a huge portion of their sales are overseas.

You need to add the recession in China to the list of CAT's problems. Other manufacturing companies also face currency issues, such as Honeywell, but they seem to be doing OK.

badcompany
01-27-2015, 09:10 PM
You need to add the recession in China to the list of CAT's problems. Other manufacturing companies also face currency issues, such as Honeywell, but they seem to be doing OK.

I was gonna bring that up. Cat did very well selling construction equipment to China during their real estate and infrastructure boom.

Never bought into the weak dollar argument. It's a two sided variable. While you might sell less, the dollars you're getting are worth more.

The Swiss just showed there is a tipping point where the positives of a weak currency are outweighed by the negatives.

ReplayRandall
01-28-2015, 08:51 PM
Caterpillar -7.18% and Microsoft -9.25% absolutely hammered today.... :eek:

Microsoft still bleeding, down another -3.45% today.......