D Jacobson winning @ 55% on wet Surface @AQU !!

[TheOracle]

I can't believe I missed this !!!

While I was looking at his Claimers on the Dirt at Aqueduct I missed that he is killing them on the wet surface!!!

D Jacobson has a 55% win percentage on the wet Surface at Aqueduct for the month of November.

It seems as though, if you stayed away from his horses that had Morning Line Odds greater than 3/1, you would have made more than a 66% return on your money playing those horses to win.

It would have cost you $40 if you played all of his horses to win for $2 and you would have won $66.60 giving you a profit of $26.60 which is a 66% return on your money!!

You would have won even more with a higher return percentage if you stayed away from his horses that were greater than 3/1 in the Morning Line.

Now, if you were ultra conservative and played all of his horses to win, place and show for $2 on the wet Surface it would have cost you $120 and you would have won $177.80 giving you a profit of $57.80 which is a 48% return on your money.

I hate when I miss stuff !!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/d jacobson wetsrf.jpg

I will be watching D Jacobson's horses on the wet Surface at Aqueduct for the rest of the season and going into tomorrow as the Surface will still be wet tomorrow!!!

*ML Odds indicates Morning Line Odds

[TheOracle]

Since this post D Jacobson has only had a 21% win percentage in races on the wet Surface at Aqueduct.

Even if you had wagered all of his horses across the board you would have lost 8% on your money.

However, it is interesting to note that if you had wagered $2 to show on his horses since November 27th it would have cost you $28 and you would have won $36.10 which is a 28.9% return on your money just for show wagering which is much more than you would have made had you wagered his horses to win.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/d jacobwetnovdec.jpghttp://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/d jacob wetnovdec.jpg


Not too shabby for show wagering if you had the patience to wait for a wet surface at Aqueduct.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/d jacob wetsprint.jpg


You are getting very slight profit with his horses in races less than 1 Mile on the wet Surface but show wagering here is still better as it would have cost you $12 to wager all of his horses to show in sprint races and you would have won $18.50 which is a 54.1% return on your money.

[castaway01]

I am more sympathetic to weird stats like these than most because I play trainer stats often. However, what are you recommending people use these stats for? Are you seriously saying to wait until it rains and then bet Jacobson's horses to show, or are you just pointing out this weird coincidence that he was on a hot streak during a time when it rained a lot? Because the former suggestion sounds crazy, and the second part is cute but useless for future wagering.

[hracingplyr]

Is like the Geico commercial, everybody knows that.


Bob

[jk3521]

Where do you stop when gathering "stats" like these ? Wet track, wet-fast,muddy track,dry track, frozen track ? In this part of the country,this time of year a trainer would have a hard time trying to point his horses to races that might experience different track conditions. So I would consider these "stats' to be just"coincidence".

[Steve 'StatMan']

Could be a volatile statistic, depending on how many of the better mudders get claimed away, vs. get replaced. It may last short term, but longer term it may change, up or down (hard to get much more up, though.)

[TheOracle]

D Jacobson technically has a streak going at Aqueduct on a Sloppy surface.

Since November 1st his horses have hit the board 14 straight times in the Slop.

However, on December 10th, only half of his coupled entry hit the board in the slop so in terms of betting interests his streak is still alive even though the other half of the entry was off the board.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net//images/commentsd jacob slopstrk.jpghttp://www.insidethenumbers.net//images/commentsd jacob slopstrk.jpghttp://www.insidethenumbers.net//images/comments/d jacob slopstrk.jpg


The show parlay is up to $933.40


http://www.insidethenumbers.net//images/comments/d jacob slopprly.jpg

It has been raining non stop in New York since yesterday so the track should be Sloppy and he has 2 betting interests entered today although they look like they will be heavily bet:

Race 4
2 Midnight Taboo / 2B Moonluck

Race 7
2 Rock N Cozy


Let's see what happens today !!

[TheOracle]

Well #2 Rock N Cozy hung on to finish 3rd in the 7th race today but didn't pay much to show as she was the favorite but it extends the streak to 15 straight times across the board on a Sloppy track.

The show parlay is now at $980.05

http://www.insidethenumbers.net//images/comments/d jacob slopprlyftn.jpg

[TheOracle]

D Jacobson has these 3 horses entered today at Aqueduct and the track is Sloppy today:

Race 3
#2 Subcontractor

Race 8
#1 Geaux Mets
#6 Big Business

Let's see what happens!!!

[DeltaLover]

D Jacobson has these 3 horses entered today at Aqueduct and the track is Sloppy today:

Race 3
#2 Subcontractor

Race 8
#1 Geaux Mets
#6 Big Business

Let's see what happens!!!

So, what happened with these 3 Jacobson horses?

[TheOracle]

Hey Delta

D J really let me down yesterday.

I was sure one of his horses would have won a race or at the very least hit the board but it was not to be I had the situation I wanted but they all ran off the board!!!

Back to the drawing board but I will be digging for more trends!!!

It's a real shame too since this snaps a streak he had of hitting the board 16 times in a row in terms of betting interests in the Slop!!

That's the way it goes!!!

Holler

[castaway01]

I just wish guys like you actually bet...sigh.

[TheOracle]

Since this post D Jacobson's horses have hit the board only 3 times in their last 8 attempts on the Sloppy surface at Aqueduct since January 4th.

His horses will have to turn it around and show more for a further look in this situation.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/djacobwetover.jpg


I will keep an eye on this situation should it start to return a profit!!