More EXCELLENT JOB NEWS (not posted by LJB)

[PaceAdvantage]

From your friendly neighborhood AP release:


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=&e=2&u=/ap/20040507/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_43

[ljb]

PA,
I didn't post the link because I thought it would be unfair to post data stating the job loss since Bush took office is "only" 1.5 million.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thanks PA, I'll take 1 of those! Ca fairs start in June, so there slould be less unemployment here soon.

[Secretariat]

Pa,

This is good news, and I hope it continues. Bush does need this right now and can use some of this as fodder for his campaign.

But there is some troubling news in your link as well.

"Hiring was widespread last month, with the service sector leading the way. .... In that category, gains were in employment services, including temporary help firms, services to buildings and dwellings, management and technical consulting services and architectural and engineering services....Other gains in April occurred in retail at building and garden supply stores, general merchandise stores and motor vehicle and parts dealers. The leisure and hospitality sector also added jobs, especially in the category of food services. Hiring also continued to be strong in health care and social assistance for the month."

While this is good news for the Bush campaign, I am saddened that the bulk of these jobs are "service" jobs which often do not provide health insurance or good benefits and a lower scale wage, (temporary help, retail stores, food services as mentioned above). I recently saw on the news that this is one of the worst years for teenage employment because adults are being forced to take these lower paying service jobs and teens are having difficult getting hired because adults are now working for less.

I've been trying to get more info on the median wage of these jobs being created, but the statistics are unavailable, but I'll grant you it is an improvement from last quarter (minimum wage is better than nothing).

I am also concerned with LBJ's post as well on the rising gas prices. If people are making less, paying more in transportation costs, and inflation rises due to rising fuel costs and the fed raises the interest rate this summer, what are the ramifications, especially in lieu of the ballooning record deficits of this administration?

I hope I'm wrong. Have been so before, but personally I think this economy is still quite fragile with the deficits, with inflation, with the rising interest rates, and with the threat of a terror attack, we have seen the markets retreating as late.

But for now I'm pleased to see this report with the above reservations. Congrats. Let's hope it is sustainable to the election. If it does your man has a chance, depite a horrendous foreign policy.

[Secretariat]

This is the info from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that has me troubled.

"For the first three months of 2004, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.1 percent. This compares with an increase of 1.9 percent for all of 2003. The index for energy, which rose 6.9 percent in 2003, accelerated in the first quarter of 2004, advancing at a 38.6 percent SAAR and accounting for about half of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at an 82.5 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 4.2 percent annual rate."

In the core calculation of the CPI which effects inflation, the energy component is excluded thereby not including this huge increase in costs. Energy 38.6% increase, and oil based 82.5% increase. That's no chump change.

[Tom]

Some people are never satisfied.:(

[schweitz]

Breakdown of April employment data:

Manufacturing: 21,000 new jobs (11th consecutive month of gain)

Builders: 18,000 new jobs

Professional and business services: 123,000 new jobs

Retailers: 26,000 new jobs

Leisure and hospitality: 36,000 new jobs

Education and health: 31,000 new jobs

Government: 8,000 new jobs

[Secretariat]

Thanks schweitz. Exactly my point.

I wish that your professional and business services would be broken down into temporary help versus permanent help, and that median wage from these jobs as well as benefits woudl be listed, because I'd think you'd find that on average these jobs involve considerably less paying jobs than the previous jobs these people had as well as containing a much poorer benefit package.

btw..after losing millions of manufacturing jobs 21,000 is a drop in a bucket of lost jobs. That said, I hope there is an increase in jobs each month. But what is missing in this report is the concept of a "good job". There are plenty of McJobs and people will take those when desperate enough, but the ideas of engineers and programmers with degrees flipping burgers is not my idea of an expanding economy.

Additionally the core calcuation of the CPI which indexes inflation does account for the gigantic hidden tax we are paying on oil and energy at present because it is considered too fluctating. In March it was up enormously as I posted earlier. The April figure hasn't yet been posted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it is going to be the biggest hidden tax increase on the American Public in decades.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Additionally the core calcuation of the CPI which indexes inflation does account for the gigantic hidden tax we are paying on oil and energy at present because it is considered too fluctating. In March it was up enormously as I posted earlier. The April figure hasn't yet been posted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it is going to be the biggest hidden tax increase on the American Public in decades.

Correction to above, it should say the "core calculation of the cPI whic indexes inflation does NOT account for the gigantic hidden tax we are paying on oil and energy at present"

[schweitz]

Sec,

Spin it any way you want---I'm out calling on manufacturers and the feedback I get is that business is definitely improving and my companies sales prove it.

My previous post is good news to everyone except to those who need to look for bad things for their political agenda.

[Tom]

Hey, why do just flatly accept the raw numbers for your case and want a breakdown on the new numbers?
Apples and oranges.

[Secretariat]

Why is it whenever I post info from government agencies that are part of this administration it is always called spin, but if the info comes from Rush or Hannity then it is accurate?

[Tom]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Why is it whenever I post info from government agencies that are part of this administration it is always called spin, but if the info comes from Rush or Hannity then it is accurate?
I'm just asking for the same info for your data that you wqant from ours. Let the numbers speak for themselves.

[Secretariat]

My point Tom is that all is not as rosy as Bush would claim it is.

I am using statistics provided by the government itself, not Michael Moore, and not Al Franken. See below just on the hidden taxes being foisted upon us with these increases:

The last 3 months shows the following according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics:

Transportation – up 14.9%
Medical Care – up 5.8%
Energy – up 38.6%

In fact here is the overall inflation on just Energy from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics over the last 8 years:

1997 - <-3.4>
1998 – <-8.8>
1999 – 13.4
2000 – 14.2
2001 - <-13.0>
2002 – 10.7
2003 – 6.9
2004 – 38.6

Friday May 14th the April figures come out, but Energy is going through the roof despite our victory in Iraq. We can see this last “quarter” energy prices outpacing anything “annually” over a decade with the summer months still to come. Why is there no investigations on this?

It’s simple. We have an oil President in office.

In fact Exxon will be the largest company in the world with record profits very shortly according to this. Not sure when people are going to wake up to this and realize the country is going backward despite the President's claim to the contrary. The oil companies are making out like bandits as are the defnse contractors. Housing will be hurting as soon as Greenspan raises those interest rates which is predicted by Wall Street to be this summer, although with an election coming up my prediction is December. The rich just keep getting richer the refrain goes, and the dumb just keep getting dumber.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040508/bs_nm/stocks_marketcap_exxon_dc

[schweitz]

Originally posted by Secretariat


It’s simple. We have an oil President in office.



It's never that simple.

[JustRalph]

I love oil...............

[Tom]

Good thing for global warming, eh?
We won't need to spend all that money on energy next year!

[ljb]

From schweitz
quote:Originally posted by Secretariat


It?s simple. We have an oil President in office.



It's never that simple.

How about this ?
It's simple. We have an oil President in office and an oil Vice President in office ?

[Tom]

Why are oil prices going up?
Two words.....Chinnese Demand.
Remember economics, the part about demand?
Now, I have no idea if their leader is an oilman or not.

[Secretariat]

LJB,

Can you imagine the posts on this board if oil prices went up like this in the Clinton administration?

[Tom]

I wouldn't blame him-he did a lot of crap, but how could he be responsible for high oil prices? Or Bush?
Look at the LIBERAL legislationthat put California in the mess it is in....they have restrictions on what types of oil/gas they can sell in CA-and it topo shelf pricey stuff-who got the kick backs on that sweetheart deal?
Perhaps, as I 've posted before , our moron senators should be out investigating that instead of focusing on spinning history or running around trying to elect a GI-loser president.

[Secretariat]

It's not just the oil in CA Tom, or haven't you noticed when you've filled up lately.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Secretariat
It's not just the oil in CA Tom, or haven't you noticed when you've filled up lately.

Duh!
I paid over $2.05 yesterday, and over $1.00 a liter in Toronto yesterday, too. I know it is eveywhere. California was an example of how it was not Bush's fault. Show me a link between Bush and higher prices and I will listen.

Now look at the real problem with this-all that money we are spending on gas is oney we are not spending and other things, so when does this start to haunt us?
Gee, it is so nice to know that the automotive companies have failed so miserably to provide us wtih fuel effiect cars, alternate energy sources for car fuel, and all in the name of spending literally millions of dollars a year to develope new shade of beige for the dashboards.

[Hammerhead]

I believe I said once a while ago that Bush will make sure we are in a war. I also seem to have mentioned that ALL politicans gov workers right down to towns are mostly corrupt in one form or the other. Most apply for these jobs because they are unable to work for themselves or a employer where they must get the job done. They take there freedoms that are left as a God given right. I would like nothing less then to take them offshore for a week or so on a commercial fishing trip to bring them closer to God and there inaliable rights to have everything given to them on a silver platter particular dates Dec through March. A 50 - 80 ft vessel and no survival suits transponders manditory life saving devices. or any other claptrap devices required prior to 1980, when our do gooding naysayers decided we know better.
It's a dam shame when a first grader can not point his finger and go bang because he has never read a Roy Rogers comic book and only knows that motion and word is now condemed. Reason for expolsion from school.
Thanks naysayers and make sure you take GOD out of every aspect of living. But make sure you don't ask for his help when are on your way out. If not Him who in Hell do you ask for?

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Tom
Duh!
I paid over $2.05 yesterday, and over $1.00 a liter in Toronto yesterday, too. I know it is eveywhere. California was an example of how it was not Bush's fault. Show me a link between Bush and higher prices and I will listen.


Here you go:

http://www.citizen.org/pressroom/release.cfm?ID=1660

Additionally, a New York Newsday article notes that profits have been more than healthy for oil companies. For instance, "In its 2003 earnings statement, ChevronTexaco Corp. reported that profits doubled from the previous year, driven by the price increases in oil and gas. The company made more in the fourth quarter of 2003 than in all of 2002."

Many find it unsettling that all of this occurring in a climate where the oil and gas industry is giving millions and millions of dollars primarily to the Republican Party and the Bush Administration has secret meetings with them to hammer out its energy policy. It makes the perception that Bush is being bought by oil and gas industry hard to shake. It also begs the question: why can't an administration filled with Texas oil men work with oil companies, OPEC, and other players to reduce prices in a way that helps businesses too? Reportedly Bush claimed that he would be able to do just that in 2000.

[Tom]

Endorsements by Jesse Jackson, Ted Kennedy, founded by Ralph Nader????/ C'mon, sec...that is not information-that is liberish, and the site/organiztion has no credibility.
I am no tsaying that there might be things worth investigating about our closed door energy policy and the conflict of interest with Chenny and the SC justice....but if you libs want to really do a service and get people to listen to you you have to wash up
before you go out on the street. Drop these proven idiots, extortionists, liars, drunks, and other assorted scumbags that can't drive over a bridge without killing somebody and then acting like a coward and worrying more about your political-hacking carrer than the girl still underwater.
Maybe peole would take you seriously if you didn't hang out with people who are obviously slime-balls.
You alledge Bush is this and that..I KNOW what Kennedy is.

[JustRalph]

What Tom Said.............Twice!!!!

I still go back to my previous point.........the lesser of two evils. I sure as hell know who Usama Bin Laden wants me to vote for. I also know who would take more money out of my wallet.
No Brainer.............


Sec......... tell us you are not being paid by the DNC? I bet you are. You come in and parrot the DNC's national line every chance you get. You are one of their internet moles aren't you........

[Tom]

Originally posted by JustRalph
..... You are one of their internet moles aren't you........

Josh Lyman.

[Secretariat]

No JR, I'm not affiliated with the DNC or any of those type of organizations. But I beleive you are a mole for the RNC.

[Secretariat]

PA, trying to get back on your thread, I guess it is difficult to know the truth about anything anymore. Here's an article from the NY Post which is owned by Rupert Mordoch and is a pretty far right paper.

http://www.nypost.com/business/23936.htm

[Tom]

Don't know about the others, but BM is closing selected assembly plants for 1-2 weeks because their cars are not selling. The outlook for the rest of the year after they come back is bleak. The auto supply chain is being crushed by this. More jobs will be lost very soon. May will be a black month. All those McJobs that we filled in April are not available for us now! :rolleyes:

Oil prices are forcing the cost of platic resin sky high, the big customers-GM, Ford, - will not pay more for parts, so the suppliers will have to pay more, make less, and that means jobs will be eliminated. Worse yey, many suppliers will cut corners, use substandard material that will not be detectable up front but will
not last and you new cars this year will be having more and more failures sooner than ever. And you will pay more for your car this year than ever before, even though every single auto supplier gave sizeable kickbacks and price cuts to GM and Ford. It costs less to manufacture a new car today than in the last three years, but the consumers get not one penny of the savings. Meanwhile, GM is now forcing suppliers to buy new tooling (molds, dies, etc.) from China - as part of the contract to get the new business.
These are major expenditures that would have once fueled our economy, but GM executives put thier own financial gains ahead of jobs for this country. Now needles to say, the mold and tooling from China are clearly cheap crap that need thousand of dollars in upgrading to make them even barely useable. GM is an enemy of this country and a natianl boycott of all GM products is warrented. Same for Ford. When they wheel out the new cars and tell us to "Buy American" it makes me sick.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tom
When they wheel out the new cars and tell us to "Buy American" it makes me sick.

Anybody who pays 25G plus for a new car today (and that is low for a nice car or truck) is nuts. I used to buy new cars.......haven't for 10 years now.........

Honda's are made in Marysville Ohio.............

[schweitz]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Anybody who pays 25G plus for a new car today (and that is low for a nice car or truck) is nuts. I used to buy new cars.......haven't for 10 years now.........

Honda's are made in Marysville Ohio.............

Ditto--and Toyotas in Tennessee.

[doophus]

Originally posted by schweitz
Ditto--and Toyotas in Tennessee.
Nissan's in Mississippi -

[Tom]

I drove a Nissan Sentra f r 500 miles the other day-to Oshawa CA and back. I am really amazed I am able to stand and walk again!
What a horrible POS car that thing is. If you are over three feet tall, there is no room for you in it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by Secretariat
PA, trying to get back on your thread, I guess it is difficult to know the truth about anything anymore. Here's an article from the NY Post which is owned by Rupert Mordoch and is a pretty far right paper.

http://www.nypost.com/business/23936.htm

I guess you're right.

[doophus]

Originally posted by Tom
I drove a Nissan Sentra f r 500 miles the other day-to Oshawa CA and back. I am really amazed I am able to stand and walk again!
What a horrible POS car that thing is. If you are over three feet tall, there is no room for you in it.
I physically outgrew a Sentra many, many years ago; long before Nissan was the name. Late news indicates the Rednecks don't know how to assemble a car, but if you happen to find a jug of homebrew in your new Quest, Titan, or other mdls made at the new Mississippi plant, I'm sure you'll find the juice to be gliche-free.

BTW, worst trip ever.....(7) college students and dirty clothes in VW Bug driving from Lexington, KY area to Chillicothe, OH area and then return. I still ache from that sucker.

[ljb]

You fellows talking about the hondas and nissans that are being made in America may want to check out the tax structure they have devised. Last time I checked the profits were all being made in some off shore island process and the corps. had little or no tax obligation in America.

[doophus]

Originally posted by ljb
You fellows talking about the hondas and nissans that are being made in America may want to check out the tax structure they have devised. Last time I checked the profits were all being made in some off shore island process and the corps. had little or no tax obligation in America.
As one who believes that ALL corporate profits, after an adequate reserve is created, should be forcibly passed thru to the stockholders, I'm not concerned with the corporate income taxes. The creation of J-O-B-S is the REAL DEAL.

Didn't the Lone Star state get a new "foreign" auto assembly plant after Mississippi told the corp that they couldn't guarantee the manpower?

[Tom]

My simple rule is, you make it here, sell it here. Period.
GM wnat so exploit Mexican workers and avoid US pollution laws by building cars in Mexico-great. But sell every one of them in Mexico.
No exceptions.
We need to take control of AMerican businesses and force them to operte in the US if they want to remain US companies.
And tax the crap out them for every sinlge job they outsource. Make it impossible to afford to to sell jobs.

[Secretariat]

I now no longer beleive any information coming out of our government agencies.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported the CPI figures and the report shows only a 0.1 increase in the price of energy for April. Anyone who has been filling up at the tank knows this is ridiculous. They were caught late last month actually adding over 100,000 jobs to their statistics when in fact those jobs were not created and they admitted as much that they could not actually count the jobs.

This statistic stuff should be non-partisan, but I'm afraid politcs has now creeped into even this.

[eclecticapper]

The issue with the price indexes produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is that they try to incorporate changes in spending habits as part of the equation. If you want the long-winded explanation, go to bls.gov and do a search for either "substitution" or "replacement". The shorter explanation is that, for example, when gasoline prices increase the BLS assumes more people will start buying regular unleaded because superduper premium is too expensive. Even though the price of all grades has increased, the index will reflect a change in buyer preference toward the cheaper grade of gas. As a result, the index will indicate that inflation is tame when common sense says otherwise.
I used gas as an example because I think it's one everyone can relate to, but the BLS does this for things like groceries and clothing as well. It's done this way regardless of which party holds the White House, so don't try to blame it on the current administration. The fact is everyone likes to see low inflation numbers, even if it takes some mathe-MAGIC to get there.

[Secretariat]

How about raw statistics...math-MAGIC we can do without....Even if everyone droped from Premium and swtiched to lower grade gas, -- to say that Energy costs only increased 0.1 in April flies in the face of everyone's experience. I don't remember ever seeing this kind of blatant lying before in terms of inflation reporting.

All one has to do is talk to every person pulling up to the pumps and ask them if their energy costs have only risen 0.1 in April. I would be amazed if you could find one person across the country who would say that including Lefty.

[eclecticapper]

I agree the creativity used in calculating the CPI renders the number almost meaningless, but this is not a new invention. Here's a link to testimony given by former Commissioner of Labor Statistics Katharine G. Abraham in April 1997 that discusses the use of "substitution" in the calculation of CPI (WARNING: this testimony has been found to induce extreme boredom in laboratory animals):

http://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.br043097.brief.htm

Here's a quick example of how 10% inflation can be made to look like 0%--

Name brand cola cost 99 cents in March 2004 & store brand cola cost 89 cents. Everyone likes name brands better than store brands (theoretically), so all 100 shoppers in a sample buy the name brand and no one buys the store brand. In April '04, the price of both increases by 10 cents. Through substitution, the BLS determines that everyone is now buying the store brand (and thus still paying 99 cents for cola). In spite of the price increase, the Cola Price Index (CPI) shows no inflation at all.

And for my next trick, I will cut taxes and balance the budget with one economist tied behind my back...

[Secretariat]

Eclectic,

An excellent breakdown. I am now convinced Washington is completely looney.

[Tom]

Premium unleaded tonight - $2.17 ! :eek:

[Tom]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Eclectic,

An excellent breakdown. I am now convinced Washington is completely looney.

Anthrax not looking so bad anymore, is it?;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by Secretariat
I don't remember ever seeing this kind of blatant lying before in terms of inflation reporting.


When was the last time you were monitoring these reports so damn closely? 1991?

I think you might be losing it a bit. Not everything in this world is a conspiracy you know....

[Secretariat]

PA,

Can you explain how energy inflation figures went up only 0.1 in April while the price of gasoline nationwide skyrocketed in April?

[PaceAdvantage]

That's a lie. The price of gasoline did NOT skyrocket in the month of April.

The price of regular went up less than 4c a gallon during the month of April. All grades and all formulations as a whole went up only 3.1c per gallon during the month.

Contrast this with the week of May 3 to May 10 when the price of regular went up OVER NINE CENTS!! In MAY it has skyrocketed...NOT APRIL.

Unlike you, I will list my sources:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_history.html

[Secretariat]

Pa,

My sources are my fill ups at the local Sam's Club. 03/31/04 I paid 1.62 a galloon. On 04/29/04 I padi 1.75 a gallon. An increase of 13 cents in one month. And you are right, since then it has gone threw the roof.

Now you link from the oil industry I am sure is quite reliable. all I know is 8 percent in April which if that increases every month I will have to be giving up driving. I filled up today for 2.05. An increase of 30 cents this motnh so far.

Maybe you are not feeling these gas increases in your area and beleive the oil industries reassurances. That's your perogative. I choose to beleive my invoices from Sam's Clubs after filling up.

[PaceAdvantage]

No, I believe COLD HARD STATS. They tend not to lie as much as some people I know without a shread of evidence.

And that link was NOT from the oil industry. Read it again. It's from the Department Of Energy website. If you have a better source of COMPARABLE STATISTICS, please point them out.

But again, you are SPINNING AND DEFLECTING. Your initial premise a few posts back is that the recent CPI data is FALSE, and has been MODIFIED to make Bush and Co. look good heading into the election. To support this outrageous claim, you say that gasoline prices SKYROCKETED in April, thus the CPI numbers couldn't possibly be as low as they are.

I just PROVED you wrong. The SKYROCKETING took place only a week or two ago, not in April. You are wrong. End of story.

Next.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
No, I believe COLD HARD STATS. They tend not to lie as much as some people I know without a shread of evidence.

And that link was NOT from the oil industry. Read it again. It's from the Department Of Energy website.

....I just PROVED you wrong. The SKYROCKETING took place only a week or two ago, not in April. You are wrong. End of story.

Next.

Well, I also beleive cold hard stats, ...those coming out of my pcoket book.

If you choose to beleive the Department of Energy prices of gas rather than your own invoices so be it.

I think if you look at the biography of the Secretary of Energy and his oil connections it is no wondering he is trying to put a good face on a horrible situation

http://www.opensecrets.org/bush/cabinet/cabinet.abraham.asp

But I do agree with you that the SKYROCKETING of oil in the last two weeks is bad..My invoices are now well over 2.00 from the big increase in my Sam's Clubs receipts for April.

PA, I suggest you look at your gas receipts and do the comparision yourself.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Well, I also beleive cold hard stats, ...those coming out of my pcoket book.

If you choose to beleive the Department of Energy prices of gas rather than your own invoices so be it.

I think if you look at the biography of the Secretary of Energy and his oil connections it is no wondering he is trying to put a good face on a horrible situation

http://www.opensecrets.org/bush/cabinet/cabinet.abraham.asp

But I do agree with you that the SKYROCKETING of oil in the last two weeks is bad..My invoices are now well over 2.00 from the big increase in my Sam's Clubs receipts for April.

PA, I suggest you look at your gas receipts and do the comparision yourself.

those stats are for the whole country.........not your pocket book

[Tom]

Originally posted by Secretariat
..My invoices are now well over 2.00 from the big increase in my Sam's Clubs receipts for April.......


So if it is "Sam" who is behind this skyrocketing, why do you keep blaming Bush?

[Secretariat]

Not blaming Sam's Club , Tom, just listing the prices charged on my invoices....

I can either blame Sam's for gouging me, or believe that Spencer Abraham's Dept. of Energy is not entirely telling us the truth. If you look at his bio I posted I think you'll guess why I beleive the latter as Spencer's a big oil beneficiary.

I undertand why Schweitz takes issue with things as he's a Texas boy and is quite happy with profits going Exxon and Texas way, but a New Yorker like you Tom must be getting a little tired of paying for those Texas boys to be driving around in caddies.

[Tom]

Sec,
I live in Western NY....more like texas here than NYC.
But being a New Yorker, I don't have time to be mad at Texans...we got our own brain-dead govenor and state legislature to deal with...theses guys are pros as being stupid. lazy, counter-productive and all-around slimeballs.
You want real rage, move to NY and live under this regime...hmmmm, maybe Bush would be willing to invade NY and install democracy HERE!

[schweitz]

1. Our use of reformulated gas

2. The weaker dollar

3. Lack of refinery space in US

4. China's economic growth

5. Market speculators driving up prices

6. Fear of terrorism in the oil fields

Reasons to be optimistic that this won't continue

1. Chinese economy is starting to cool

2. OPEC is currently pumping more than 3 million barrels a day than the world needs

3. Iran is going to vote at next OPEC meeting to increase procuction even more

4. Iran's Oil Minister wants US and Iran to work out problems so that US can help develop Iran's oil fields.

5. US oil companies are now back in Libya doing business.

6. The Saudi's have suggested that pumping another 1.5 million barrels a day is possible.

[Secretariat]

That actually is a good analysis of the reasons for gas rising, but you missed two. Exxon--Mobil reported record profits this quarter, and the cost of gas to run our armed forces abroad. Tanks don't get a lot of mpg.

[schweitz]

Last quarter profits were before rising gas prices.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Secretariat
That actually is a good analysis of the reasons for gas rising, but you missed two. Exxon--Mobil reported record profits this quarter, and the cost of gas to run our armed forces abroad. Tanks don't get a lot of mpg.

Just how many Iraqi's per gallon do they get? :D

[schweitz]

John Deere quarterly earnings jumped 86% due to a recovery in agriculture and construction.

Hewlett-Packard on tuesday became the third (Dell and Intel) major technology hardware maker to report record quarterly revenue---a 12% increase from a year ago.

Home Depot sales rose 17% from a year ago

J.C. Penny sales up 9.5% from a year ago

TJX parent company of T.J.Maxx and Marshalls posted a quarterly sales increase of 21%

Staples quarterly sales increase of 13%

Barnes and Noble quarterly sales increased 9.4% from a year ago

[Tom]

Geez, this rotten economy is killing us! :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

Recovery in agriculture and construction? Now wait a minute. These two have nothing to do with the so called "McJobs" certain folks like to banter about....or are they growing Big Macs out in the fields these days?

Hmmm, and none of those companies you just mentioned have anything to do with Haliburton or Exxon!!! How DARE you post that!!! LOL ;)

[Secretariat]

lol..yeah it's booming. Does anybody here read Investor's Business Daily?

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=21223948&brk=1

[PaceAdvantage]

Weren't people COMPLAINING about a falling dollar just a couple of months ago? DAMN people are fickle! Now this guy is complainig that the dollar has risen to multi-month highs?

This guy also predicts that the DOW would do well to end the year at 10,500. It's right under the 10,000 mark as we speak, and there is still 7.5 months to go....

Look at the number of companies that have beaten earnings estimates this quarter to date, compared to those that have missed.

How's this for an article (it's a little stale, but contains this interesting stat)

Over half of the companies in the S&P 500 index have now reported their quarterly results, and to date 78 percent of them have beaten earnings estimates — an outstanding number that is 20 percent above the long-term average, according to Perkins. Eleven percent of companies matchedg estimates, while another 11 percent missed them.

Another positive, notes Perkins, is that companies the S&P 500 index are reporting sturdy revenue growth, which is important because companies need to see revenue grow in order to expand their businesses and hire new workers, an important ingredient in an economic recovery. With results from about 300 companies already reported, revenue is up 12.5 percent from the same quarter a year ago — a figure not seen since early 2000, he said.

“That’s a pretty solid revenue growth number,” said Perkins. “And when you factor in the earnings estimates for those companies that have yet to report, revenue growth for the quarter is likely to be 9.7 percent. But as many companies will likely beat expectations, it will probably be closer to 11 percent.”

So much for your Dr. Kellner's "Now the stock market is worried that the economy will soon slow down and that corporate profits won't live up to expectations." Post some more good stuff like this!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4818032/


Ps. Check out Hewlett-Packard's comments today...MORE upbeat commentary from a company that does not deal in burgers or oil!! Who woulda THUNK IT?

[Secretariat]

Using your own article:

“One cloud on the earnings horizon, Perkins adds, is an expected deceleration in corporate profit growth in the second half of 2004. “Later this year earnings comparisons will become difficult and we’ll likely be in a rising rate environment, which tends to dampen earnings,” he said, adding that interest rates are not expected to rise in a way that would threaten the economic recovery.”

And regarding HP,

“Hewlett-Packard Co. posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings Tuesday, spurred by cost savings from its merger with Compaq Computer Corp. Thanks to aggressive price cuts to clea inventory, outsourcing and promotions, worldwide personal computer sales jumped 4.9 per cent to 38.8 million units in the fourth calendar quarter, according to the research firm IDC.”

btw..how are those manufacturing jobs doing? Again, low paying retail sales andd service jobs. The tech jobs you are quoting are going down in the US, except in no benefir temporary help jobs. Because HP makes more money via outsourcing and the merger consoldation with Compaq cutting jobs may rise their market price, but doesn't transfer into more high paying jobs for Americans.

[schweitz]

U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the 12th consecutive month and construction spending rose to its HIGHEST level ever.
The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that its manufacturing index advanced to 62.8 in May from 62.4 in April. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting. The guage has been ABOVE 50 SINCE LAST JUNE.

The Commerce Dept. said construction spending registered its best month on record in April. This beats the all-time record set in March.
The reports show that the economy, which grew at a healthy 4.4% rate in the Jan.-March quarter, is in solid shape.

The employment index showed growth for the seventh consecutive month with a 61.9 reading in May, the HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 1973.

[schweitz]

Thought I would bring this up to the top again so the "Doom and Gloom" crowd could comment on it.:p

[schweitz]

Other good economic news---

Historically low interest rates and mortgage rates

Record high home ownership

Booming home values and low inflation

Unemployment rate is below last 30 year average

[chickenhead]

long term, US working class is screwed.

[schweitz]

Originally posted by chickenhead
long term, US working class is screwed. How do you figure?

[chickenhead]

I think the fall of the soviet union, and the increasing democracy around the world (slowly increasing), are good things overall, but I do think they diminish our comparative competetive advantage.

Likewise, technology, and our increasing consumption of products made with very little human touch time, while a good thing in some ways, can not help but bring down median wages over time.

Now, I'm no economist, but I fail to see how they can say we have very low inflation, when as you point out, home prices are soaring, food prices are up, health care is up, we all know gas is up. Now technically, these aren't counted as inflationary, but considering like you say, all time low interest rates, and massive government borrowing......well, all I know is my income hasn't risen with housing prices....I'm not complaining, and I'm certainly not blaming Bush or anyone else...but to me, long term, average joe's US income is going down. Free trade will make us poorer. I'm not saying it's not a good thing anyway, but I do think it will make us here poorer overall.

[schweitz]

If your in a house right now you are benefiting from its increasing value---if you are not in a house right now you may never see a better opportunity to afford one than exists right now.

[chickenhead]

I'm not unfort., I think you're right, but my job is so shaky I just can't do it. $300K against a shaky $50K salary makes me, well, shaky. Job market is just not what it was 4 or 5 years ago in this area, if i bought I house and hit a bad stretch, I would be screwed boy.

[JustRalph]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040604/D830BAKO1.html

A snippet:

New Jobs Help U.S. Extend Hiring Spree


Jun 4, 1:45 PM (ET)

By LEIGH STROPE

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. employers added almost a quarter million workers in May, extending a nine-month hiring spree and accommodating enough new jobseekers to hold the unemployment rate steady at 5.6 percent.

Payrolls swelled by almost 1 million in the last three months alone, the Labor Department said Friday. Employment figures for March and April were revised up to reflect the addition of 353,000 and 346,000 jobs respectively.

Tens of thousands of jobseekers are renewing their searches in an improving labor market, so the overall, seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate did not improve from April's 5.6 percent figure.

Nevertheless, the snapshot of America's employment situation in May met the expectations of most private analysts and fueled anticipation of an increase in interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets at the end of this month. The Fed's main interest rate has been at a 46-year low of 1 percent, but analysts expect that to end with the jobs market steadily gaining steam.


(AP) The increase in productivity, the amount an employee produces for every hour on the job, was up...
Full Image


On Wall Street, the report sent stocks sharply higher, giving investors confidence that continued job growth is sustainable.

Hiring last month was widespread, with businesses adding an overall 248,000 new jobs across the economy. Industries that posted the biggest gains included construction, health care, professional and business services and hotels and restaurants.

"What is really key is that every major sector had improvements," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia Securities. "That suggests these gains are sustainable."

The struggling manufacturing sector also is reawakening, adding 32,000 new jobs last month. Based on revised figures, it was the fourth straight month of payroll increases after almost three years of continuous losses.

Friday's report was good news for President Bush, who has been counting on continued employment growth to boost his re-election prospects. The economy was expected to be a major drag on his campaign, but that may prove otherwise.


(AP) Construction spending registered its best month on record in April, according to the Commerce Dept....
Full Image


Bush, in Rome on a three-day European visit, told reporters the jobs report "shows that our economy is vital and growing."

"The policies in place are working, the entrepreneurial spirit is strong and the small business sector of the economy is vibrant," Bush said.

"What a difference a year makes," said Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, noting the big payroll gains in the past three months. "A wakeup call has been sent that the United States economy is back."

Bush still is on track to be the first president since the Great Depression to have lost jobs during his watch - but those losses are shrinking. His administration was widely criticized for an overly optimistic forecast that 2.6 million new jobs would be created this year. But economists now say the chugging economy could approach that mark.
More at the link:

[PaceAdvantage]

Good post JR. I was going to see how long they went before acknowledging this brand new GOOD NEWS, but alas and alak, they can not deal with any good news, only bad news.

You won't see much reply to this post. They don't want it to get too much attention. Good news for America is not good news for 'them'

[Tom]

Strong economy...getting stronger.
Hey libs..."Bing it on!"

LOL

[chickenhead]

I'm pretty liberal, I think it's good news....I don't give Bush much credit for it, just like I don't think Clinton had much to do with the 90's good economy. It was Gore, inventing the internet and all, that had the real effect..:)

[Tom]

Originally posted by chickenhead
I'm pretty liberal, I think it's good news....I don't give Bush much credit for it, just like I don't think Clinton had much to do with the 90's good economy. It was Gore, inventing the internet and all, that had the real effect..:)

So....GORE is responsible for all these worms and viruses, eh!:mad:

[Secretariat]

Chickenhead,

You make a very good point. Members of the far right on this baord have continually said Clinton was not reponsible for the booming economy of the 90's, and I sure as heck agree on that. The internet and the expansion of the computer in home and personal business did that and he was the beneficiary. Now however, these same people who asserted Clinton had nothing to do with it, and were saying Bush had nothing to do with the bad economy under GW are now proclaiming he is responsible for it beginning to bounce back. A bit of a flip flop, but typical.

My only disagreement with you Chickenhead is I don't think this economy is in very good shape. We're still on track under this admin to lose more jobs than any President since Hoover. As one advisor states in the link below it is a bit of a Goldilocks econony, and in the link under it one can get a view of the kind of corps that are really profiting,..in case you're looking for a profitable investment.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040605/bs_nm/column_stocks_week_dc

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/fo/20040603/bs_fo/8f589b311b241a36728a6f2a85165e12&e=3

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Chickenhead,

Now however, these same people who asserted Clinton had nothing to do with it, and were saying Bush had nothing to do with the bad economy under GW are now proclaiming he is responsible for it beginning to bounce back. A bit of a flip flop, but typical.

Clinton didn't push through tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Bush can take some credit because he did. Just like Reagan did.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Clinton didn't push through tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Bush can take some credit because he did. Just like Reagan did.


lol...man, you are the biggest flip flop I've ever seen...You've posted over and over again that a Pres doesn't have any real effect on the growth of the economy, and now because a Repub shows a decent quarter, he can take credit...


Now they're trying to hide just how far Bush has got us in debt.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=512&e=4&u=/ap/20040604/ap_on_go_co/debt_limit_3

And here's a personal story of our job creation:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040605/ap_on_bi_ge/help_wanted_outsourcing_taxes_1

[hcap]

By Party

Let's see the preznit has got 6-7 months to recover a WHOLE bunch of jobs, or he stays in Hoover territory.

He coluld always redefine the guys who clean your windshields at stop signs as doing manufacturing. After all they manufacture a clean view of the road.

[Tom]

Million new jobs last month.
Before you know it, W will have recovered all the jobs lost due to the Clintonization of our economy, which, BTW, went into recession before W took office.
And the only reason tings went south for 41 was that he gave in to the demos demands to RAISE taxes.
Is history lost on you guys?
Tax cuts = a good thing.

But to be fair to Billly, the economy probably woudl not have been damaged so badly had he been on the job and watching over the country instead of on his knees watching the top of Monica's head. I am sure, being the good guy he is, he would have taken some kind of action had he ever had a clue. He though teh economy was....humming!:rolleyes:

[ljb]

Tom,
Use caution here. This administration has been caught cooking the books in most other areas. You may eventually find that the lad who just took over delivering your daily paper is listed as one of the million. ;)

[hcap]

Ok you stepford lemmings
Da deficit according to...

1-The Congressional Budget Office" recently said this year's budget deficit is expected to be less than the $477 billion shortfall the office projected in March.

2-The White House has forecast a $521 billion deficit for this year and will release updated estimates this summer.

So da chart needs updating.

[Secretariat]

Hcap,

That graphic says it all. And they try to buffalo the public that the conservative party is "fiscally responsible".

My God that graphic is worse than I thought.

[hcap]

Sec,

If you factor in the NEW figs, the chart has to be extended DOWN at least 75%!!!
Maybe my math is off a bit-----but it looks like from

-$305 BILLION
to ta dah!
-$521 BILLION--- according to the white house

The next time the chart is updated it will take up 2 seperate posts.

So the preznit is not only the "war preznit", but also the "son of Herbert Hoover preznit"
The long term job numbers will only improve if the deficit is controlled.
They cannot claim growth if we are paying billions more in increased interest on a runaway deficit.

And a one or two month increase in low paying jobs does not a recovery make.

And as I said the guys who clean your windshields are the new professionals.
Maybe soon Abu and the quickie mart will be hiring. Mr Burns is soon to lay off Homer, so at least he will be serving slushies to all of Springfield.

Fooled again

:rolleyes:
:rolleyes:

[Tom]

I'll make a deal with you libs....if you only talk about number of jobs lost, I will do the same when I talk about jobs created.
Apples and apples, thing ya know?

And as far as the deficit, ok, it's big. Gonne get bigger. Gonna be hard to pay off. Yup. Crying shame, ducky.
Get over it. It's not like we're spending it on beer and lottery tickets and crank and crack.....like a lot of the poor oppresed entitlement barons you libs are always crying about.
We will get past it.
It is part of the cost of being the greatest nation in the history of the world-we invest in big things....freedom, justice, safety, you know, all the stuff you want us to ignore and trust to the kindness of muslems, Scarlette.
:eek:

[hcap]

http://rtorgerson.blogspot.com/

Thursday, June 10, 2004

Most of Those New Jobs Reported Are Imaginary
John Crudele's jobs commentary in the New York Post caght my eye last month. He reported that a huge number of the new jobs being reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were actually the imaginary invention of a statistical method known as "birth/death modeling". This model attempts to correct the notion that the employment figures don't account for jobs created by new businesses that haven't reported in to state Unemployment Insurance agencies yet. So long term studies showed that the rate of dying business was very similar to the rate of new businesses formed - on average, over the business cycle. So, the birth/death model imputes a number for new businesses based upon the number of old businesses that died that month. (If population rates were calculated this way, we would 'discover ' that, among other things, fatal traffic accidents cause babies.)

"What I found suggests that Crudele may have been understating the problem. When you actually reproduce the BLS methodology described in the BLS Handbook of Methods (Chapter 2), you arrive at the conclusion that fully 88% of the new jobs claimed to have been created since March 2003 are imaginary."

Read the rest of the article for sources
like:

U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS Handbook of Methods
http://stats.bls.gov/opub/hom/home.htm


Also

"Sunday, June 06, 2004
If You Want to Live Like A Republican, Vote Democratic (part II)
In a recent blog I laid out the fact that economic growth under Democratic Party controlled administrations is significantly higher than under Republican administrations, at least for the last 52 years. Further, the highest average growth rates have occurred under Federal governments with a Democratic President and a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats


http://members.aol.com/rtorgerson/gdpparty.gif

[Tom]

Cool. Susbstitute colors for facts.
Nice plan.
:D

[doophus]

hcap,

Would also like to see the above chart showing raw % increase/decrease in inflation rate.

BTW, I know the above chart is "inflation adjusted."

[hcap]

The chart is color blind friendly.
We wouldn't want color blind folks missing out. It is also fact-friendly. Notice the NUMBERS on the colors? They are meant to be read, or at least mouthed.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

doophus:

"Would also like to see the above chart showing raw % increase/decrease in inflation rate."

Why?

[doophus]

Originally posted by hcap
The chart is color blind friendly.
We wouldn't want color blind folks missing out. It is also fact-friendly. Notice the NUMBERS on the colors? They are meant to be read, or at least mouthed.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

doophus:

"Would also like to see the above chart showing raw % increase/decrease in inflation rate."

Why? 1. Why half-a**present the data? Doesn't the Senate play any role? Show us the same chart w/Senate in lieu of House or, better yet, Pres w/Senate & House.

2. Concerning the inflation chart; I don't think you're that dense. Also, I may need some additional chart-reading practice; hard to read those suckers when you must trash-can pertinent data.

3. I'm sure the omission of the missing data was an oversight. You'll not make that mistake often.

Until later, I remain


Doophus, The Inciteful

[Tom]

Doophus,
I just wanna see some more colors!;)

[doophus]

Originally posted by Tom
Doophus,
I just wanna see some more colors!;) Da**, Tom, I assure you that I had a #4 that would have read: "Tom wants to see more colors." ;)

Too many slick spots in the ol' cranium. :o

[Tom]

LOL

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm particularly impressed with the source of the latest cool looking chart.

Things are looking better for America translates into "cooked books" for the doom and gloom crowd.

Nothing is what it seems. Life and the US Government is all a "Magical Illusion" to quote the late Doug Henning.

Yup, everything GOOD is a lie, and everything BAD is the truth.

And people react with shock when I say a lot of the Bush haters welcome all the bad stuff with open arms??? That they're getting annoyed there hasn't been a single terrorist attack in the US for almost three years???

I'm the crazy one, right? Ya'll can dance around claiming every good number that comes out of Washington is fake, but I'm the crazy one.....whatever....

[Tom]

You are a color tease. Sure, you give us some blues and reds, but where are the spring colors-yellows, greens, the soft pastels, the burgundy's? You post to primary colors and then when it comes time to put up some real stuff, you don't do it. I think that all you ever found were those too ordinary colors and that the REAL CMDs (colros of mass delight) never existed at all. I think you lied to us all. I think you should run for office so we can impeach you!
Be advised-I have called Michael Moore, whose favorite color is fushia, and he is looking into your decite right now. He has friends at Technocolor, you know!

:rolleyes:

[JustRalph]

Economy Set for Best Growth in 20 Years

Economy Growing Faster than last twenty years, Huh? Wonder why we aren't hearing about this? Maybe Better than Clinton years? Wow!........ I can't believe the DNC boys missed this one?


Economy Set for Best Growth in 20 Years

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040706/D83LFTV00.html

Jul 6, 3:35 PM (ET)

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

(AP) The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a...

WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.

In fact, many analysts are forecasting that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow by 4.6 percent or better this year, the fastest in two decades.

There were strong 4.5 percent growth rates in 1997 and 1999, when Bill Clinton was president and the country was in the midst of a record 10-year expansion.

But if this year's growth ends up a bit faster than that, it will be the best since the economy roared ahead at a 7.2 percent rate in 1984, a year when another Republican president - Ronald Reagan - was running for re-election.

"We are moving into a sweet spot for the economy with interest rates not too high, jobs coming back and business investment providing strength," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One in Chicago, who is predicting GDP growth of 4.8 percent this year.

President Bush is highlighting the improving economy at every opportunity while Democratic challenger John Kerry has focused on what he calls a middle class squeeze of rising health and tuition costs and laid-off workers forced to take lower-paying jobs.

Who will win on the all-important pocketbook issues? Economists aren't sure.

"It is unclear whether voters will remember the past year and the better jobs created during that period or the past four years," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. "It will be a close call and that is one of the reasons the election could be so close."

Assessing the economy at midyear, most private economists are sticking with the optimistic forecasts they had six months ago, even though inflation, driven by surging energy prices, rose higher than expected and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last month.

"We are looking for a darn good year despite the fact that we had a big jump in oil prices and interest rates are going up faster than people thought would occur," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Offsetting those drags on the economy has been stronger growth in Japan and China, which helps U.S. exports, better-than-expected consumer spending and much better job growth than analysts were expecting as the year began.

The economy has now created 1.5 million new jobs since last August, compared with a loss of 2.7 million jobs in the previous 29 months, when the country was struggling with a string of blows from a collapsing stock market to a recession and terrorist attacks.

Even with the 10 months of consecutive job gains, Bush is still facing a 1.2 million jobs deficit, from the last peak for employment in March 2001.

However, many analysts anticipate the economy will generate around 200,000 jobs per month over the next six months, a pace that would be enough to erase his deficit figure by the end of the year. That would enable him to escape being the only president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to have lost jobs while in office.

Although the economy created only 112,000 jobs in June, after averaging 304,000 jobs for the previous three months, analysts expect strong job growth the rest of this year.

They predict the unemployment rate - stuck at 5.6 percent for most of this year - will improve gradually, to 5.3 percent by December, as a strengthening job market draws people back into the labor force.

Analysts also are optimistic about inflation in the months ahead, noting that oil prices recently retreated from peaks above $42 per barrel in June, and regular gasoline have declined from highs over $2 a gallon in late May. If the trend continues, inflation pressures will be eased.

The Bond Market Association's economic advisory committee, made up of economists from large financial institutions, is predicting that consumer prices will rise 3.1 percent for all of this year, a significant moderation from the 5.1 percent rate of increase through May.

The group projects overall GDP growth will be at a 20-year high of 4.7 percent, based in part on a belief that the Fed will keep to its pledge of moderation in future rate hikes because of the absence of inflation pressures.