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ReplayRandall
11-25-2014, 10:16 PM
I've been out of the market since Oct. 21st and will continue to stay out as my suspicions won't go away. Here's just another small problem that may be the harbinger of something huge just ahead:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mini-flash-crashes-rock-stock-market-2014-11-25?siteid=yhoof2

Robert Goren
11-25-2014, 11:08 PM
There is always a chance that something the big banks are pulling will fall apart, but the US economy is sound. But economy of the rest of world, not so much. The thing that worries me is the price of oil. I just don't believe there is that much more on the market to cause this much of a drop. Some of it has be demand related. I heard one guy today say we are in the 6th year of a bull market. I can't believe we could go 20 years without the banks screwing up.
When you understand what causes these flash crashes, you will wonder why there ain't more of them. HFT and Dark Pools is just asking for them. It is the world we live in now.

whodoyoulike
11-25-2014, 11:47 PM
I had read that article earlier today. I wondered at the time if someone was testing something to see how much they could move the market in those or similar types of stocks. Their explanation just didn't seem right. I don't think anyone with a lot of money would intentionally make a move which would be detrimental to their interests.

_______
11-26-2014, 12:00 AM
There is always a chance that something the big banks are pulling will fall apart, but the US economy is sound. But economy of the rest of world, not so much. The thing that worries me is the price of oil. I just don't believe there is that much more on the market to cause this much of a drop. Some of it has be demand related. I heard one guy today say we are in the 6th year of a bull market. I can't believe we could go 20 years without the banks screwing up.
When you understand what causes these flash crashes, you will wonder why there ain't more of them. HFT and Dark Pools is just asking for them. It is the world we live in now.

Robert-

Oil demand continues to rise. The last numbers I saw for September showed the rate of rise is slowing from what it was earlier in the summer but it continues upward month over month.

The attached chart reflects seasonal changes but if you look at year over year numbers for the same quarter you'll see no one is projecting a decline in 2015.

It's all supply.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

badcompany
11-26-2014, 09:18 AM
Historically, the biggest Stock Market profits have been made when the market was making new highs and many investors were expecting a top.

badcompany
11-26-2014, 09:49 AM
Robert-

Oil demand continues to rise. The last numbers I saw for September showed the rate of rise is slowing from what it was earlier in the summer but it continues upward month over month.

The attached chart reflects seasonal changes but if you look at year over year numbers for the same quarter you'll see no one is projecting a decline in 2015.

It's all supply.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

What did you think about the comments from the Saudis, that production should not be cut? Seems like they're jawboning the price DOWN.

_______
11-26-2014, 11:24 AM
What did you think about the comments from the Saudis, that production should not be cut? Seems like they're jawboning the price DOWN.

They have been consistent in what they are saying. I have looked at the 11/27 meeting as a possible inflection point for oil. I saw non-opec members Mexico and Russia have sent their oil ministers to attend. The interview with the Russian minister I saw defined the phrase "tight jawed". The Venezualean minister was pushed on whether he would like production cuts and just smiled without answering.

I think its more likely than not that the Saudis keep the tap open after the meeting and low prices continue into the spring but this isn't a transparent organization so it's all just a guess.

On a side note, I see one of my favorite beat down stocks ESV is down fairly big again today on news that one of their competitors SDRL has suspended its dividend. SDRL is the bath water. ESV is the baby. This isn't a traders stock but if you believe like I do that we will continue to drill offshore and that demand will continue upward for oil, they are best in class of the offshore platform companies.

whodoyoulike
12-03-2014, 05:52 PM
I've been out of the market since Oct. 21st and will continue to stay out as my suspicions won't go away. Here's just another small problem that may be the harbinger of something huge just ahead:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mini-flash-crashes-rock-stock-market-2014-11-25?siteid=yhoof2

Since you originally posted this, there has been a couple more mini-flash-crashes. One recently involved Apple. Now again today.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102237078?trknav=homestack:topnews:3

I realize it may sound paranoid but, I think someone is gaming the market. See my post #3.

... As part of this "mis-executed"theory, it is also possible that a hedge fund accidentally started liquidating their portfolio, and then noticed it and reversed. How do you know? Because your profit and loss statement suddenly goes haywire.

Either that, or someone is trying to execute a series of pair trades and have no idea what they are doing. Seems unlikely.

Personally, I think somebody messed up. Professionals do not execute such sloppy trading deliberately.

What does anyone else think?

badcompany
12-03-2014, 08:09 PM
I remember hearing Poker player Phil Hellmuth once say that some people only want to bet when they have the nuts (an unbeatable hand).

I see this in the market, as well. Some people only want to make the plunge when there is no risk. Unfortunately, this is never the case.

ReplayRandall
12-03-2014, 08:40 PM
I remember hearing Poker player Phil Hellmuth once say that some people only want to bet when they have the nuts (an unbeatable hand).

I see this in the market, as well. Some people only want to make the plunge when there is no risk. Unfortunately, this is never the case.

BC, I respect your opinions, but you need to pull back just a little, as I think you're too "deep in the forest". Proceed with caution, my friend......:)

barn32
12-03-2014, 11:15 PM
BC, I respect your opinions, but you need to pull back just a little, as I think you're too "deep in the forest". Proceed with caution, my friend......:)Shades of Joseph Granville.

ReplayRandall
12-03-2014, 11:22 PM
Shades of Joseph Granville.


The person who wrote the Granville Market Letter for 50 years until he died at age 90 in 2013........

badcompany
12-04-2014, 08:31 AM
BC, I respect your opinions, but you need to pull back just a little, as I think you're too "deep in the forest". Proceed with caution, my friend......:)

A guy with more stock market bonafides than either of us said this:

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Warren Buffett

---------------------

When markets are making new highs people are fearful. They think the market has come too far too fast, but, historically, that's when the best returns are to be had

How exactly did Apple go from 100 billion market cap to 700 billion without making numerous new highs?

Robert Goren
12-04-2014, 08:45 AM
A guy with more stock market bonafides than either of us said this:

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Warren Buffett

---------------------

When markets are making new highs people are fearful. They think the market has come too far too fast, but, historically, that's when the best returns are to be had

How exactly did Apple go from 100 billion market cap to 700 billion without making numerous new highs?As I am watching CNBC this morning, 12/4/2014, there does seem to be a awful lot of people preaching greed this morning.

ReplayRandall
12-04-2014, 10:19 AM
When markets are making new highs people are fearful. They think the market has come too far too fast, but, historically, that's when the best returns are to be had.


BC, what the heck are you talking about? In 1929, people had no fear and were consumed with greed thinking the stock market was always going higher. Everything you just posted was back-asswards.....Go ahead, DON'T take my advice, what do I know......

badcompany
12-04-2014, 10:30 AM
BC, what the heck are you talking about? In 1929, people had no fear and were consumed with greed thinking the stock market was always going higher. Everything you just posted was back-asswards.....Go ahead, DON'T take my advice, what do I know......

I take the advice of the guy who made the money to invest in the first place. That would be me.

I wrote a post about how to protect yourself from a crash, by using an arbitrary sell point. This strategy would've saved investors from devastation in every serious market downturn including 1929.

But, what do I know.

Btw, you still haven't explained how a stock can increase 7x without making numerous new highs.

ReplayRandall
12-04-2014, 10:36 AM
I take the advice of the guy who made the money to invest in the first place. That would be me.

I wrote a post about how to protect yourself from a crash, by using an arbitrary sell point. This strategy would've saved investors from devastation in every serious market downturn including 1929.

But, what do I know.

Btw, you still haven't explained how a stock can increase 7x without making numerous new highs.


We are two of a kind, but with different opinions, currently. I don't know the answer to your last question, as I've never followed Apple......guess I missed that one.

Saratoga_Mike
12-04-2014, 06:29 PM
BC, what the heck are you talking about? In 1929, people had no fear and were consumed with greed thinking the stock market was always going higher. Everything you just posted was back-asswards.....Go ahead, DON'T take my advice, what do I know......

He was saying the market "climbs a wall of worry." Nothing ass-backwards about such a statement.

ReplayRandall
12-04-2014, 06:39 PM
He was saying the market "climbs a wall of worry." Nothing ass-backwards about such a statement.


If you're trying to enlighten me, you just don't see it, do you?

lamboguy
12-04-2014, 06:45 PM
the s+p has been going up on air for the last 5 years. with the fundamental's that i have been seeing lately which include the over abundance of oil, the punishment of the Russians for their invasion of the Ukrane. to me it looks like deflation is right around the corner. i only hope that there is no major disease or catastrophe around the corner that represent's the unknown.

Saratoga_Mike
12-04-2014, 07:11 PM
If you're trying to enlighten me, you just don't see it, do you?

I'm blinded by your erudition - best of luck.

thaskalos
12-05-2014, 03:13 AM
A guy with more stock market bonafides than either of us said this:

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Warren Buffett

---------------------

When markets are making new highs people are fearful. They think the market has come too far too fast, but, historically, that's when the best returns are to be had

How exactly did Apple go from 100 billion market cap to 700 billion without making numerous new highs?

Easier said than done. That's what separates the Buffets of the world from the rest of us; they manage to keep their heads when the mob is losing theirs.

Bad Company...if people are fearful when the markets are making new highs, then when are they courageous...when the markets are sinking to new lows?

badcompany
12-05-2014, 08:07 PM
Easier said than done. That's what separates the Buffets of the world from the rest of us; they manage to keep their heads when the mob is losing theirs.

Bad Company...if people are fearful when the markets are making new highs, then when are they courageous...when the markets are sinking to new lows?

Market participants aren't a monolith. They are a broad spectrum from billionaire Hedge Fund managers to grandmas living on a fixed income.

The latter is more likely to get brave at a top; the former looks to buy on a dip.

Each strategy has flaws. The top could be the end of a rally and the start of a bear market. The dip could more than just a dip. Back in 2008, some pretty investor bought financial stocks which were down 40% only to watch them go almost to zero.

IMO, your best bet long term is to get in when a trend is forming and have an exit strategy in case the market crashes.

badcompany
12-05-2014, 08:18 PM
I'm blinded by your erudition - best of luck.

It's just a different mindset. Some people believe they can prophesy the market. I'm not one of them. To me, price is everything and all else is just talk.

This is all I need to see to know I should be long stocks:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/BF52AF74-DDD6-4D9C-95D8-2562534A12A3_zpsdnrxwich.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/BF52AF74-DDD6-4D9C-95D8-2562534A12A3_zpsdnrxwich.png.html)

thaskalos
12-05-2014, 08:54 PM
It's just a different mindset. Some people believe they can prophesy the market. I'm not one of them. To me, price is everything and all else is just talk.

This is all I need to see to know I should be long stocks:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/BF52AF74-DDD6-4D9C-95D8-2562534A12A3_zpsdnrxwich.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/BF52AF74-DDD6-4D9C-95D8-2562534A12A3_zpsdnrxwich.png.html)

Makes you wonder how anybody loses money. :)

Tape Reader
12-05-2014, 09:40 PM
Makes you wonder how anybody loses money. :)

Try it on a 1-minute chart and you will see why. My hat is off to badcompany for his fortitude.