My guide to betting 2 year old maiden races

[letswastemoney]

As for what qualifies me to write such a guide ... well I've written for the now defunct ThoroBid and ThoroFan if that counts.

http://thoughtsonracinglifeandmore.com/post/103427612614/guide-to-betting-two-year-old-maiden-races

I'll try to summarize it though, as I don't want to spam a blog link and not try to make it more part of the forum.

-Form is still most important, but a lot of 2 year old maidens don't have form.

-When no running lines are available that match the conditions of the race, look at breeding.

- Breeding, surface and distance all relate to each other. Exceptions happen, but in most instances the maiden will like what their family likes, EVEN if their talent does not match their other family members.

Ex. Eblouissante is a synthetic route horse, even if her talent does not match Zenyatta

- Trainer stats are useful to an extent. I consider them secondary to the form and breeding.

- Auction prices give some clues too. Again, this only goes so far, as I'm not going to be sold on a $16 million dollar horse. But I consider it a bad sign when the breeding is excellent and the auction price is poor, and vice versa, the breeding could look subpar and the auction price is unusually high (Bayern).

- First time lasix is always something I've looked at, ever since my dad taught me when I was 5. It's still a good angle for maiden races.

- I find dirt maiden races to run more true to what I see on paper, but that could just be me. I may have more familiarity with dirt sires and dirt breeding.

I guess the one factor I forgot to include are workouts. But, workouts are difficult to handicap. I wouldn't give any Bob Baffert horses extra points for fast workouts. Not every Todd Pletcher baby works fast and some of them fire big anyway.

I don't like handicapping by workouts because I'm not there. I don't see which horses they are working out with and I don't know every trainer's preference on how fast or slow they like to work their horses. That probably has to be one of the factors though.

Maybe I'll quickly add something about workouts in.

Also, if I'm wrong about something I'm open to learn.

[Stillriledup]

Adding a few things from my perspective.

Most first timers who win, are specifically trained to win and to be ready to run a winning race first time out. Some horses who aren't necessarily trained to win first time out can still win if they're either really special or everything falls their way. You know the Wesley Wards and some of the Pletchers are usually ready to run their best race out of the box, a lot of trainers aren't going to crank em up to win as firsters.

Where you can get a firster to win as a longshot is if the horse itself has breeding that would suggest he or she is a very win early type of horse yet, the trainer isn't known for cranking on firsters, those horses can essentially overcome the situation and win despite the trainer not necessarily being a win early type of trainer.

Another good angle is to try and sniff out which horses were really fast at the sales, sometimes you'll see a horse that has average or non descript breeding who will have brought a LOT of money for that sire, so you know that "something is up" and its usually that the horse showed some good speed in the training sale.

Post parade is very key for me, i'm usually looking for a horse without blinkers or a shadow roll and i'm looking for a horse to be acting very professional in the warmups, need to see him calm and acting like a pro, firsters who are all over the place and acting razzled might have their mind on other things, so i downgrade them...of course, a big price can get me to forgive stuff like this.

Some owners are amazingly great with firsters, like in California, Tommy Town owned horses are all ready to fire their best and what's interesting about some of these horses is that they have PAINFULLY slow works. You know, stuff like 6F in 117. and they have a long series of slow drills, and they still run big races, so you have to really know your connections.

[letswastemoney]

Where you can get a firster to win as a longshot is if the horse itself has breeding that would suggest he or she is a very win early type of horse yet, the trainer isn't known for cranking on firsters, those horses can essentially overcome the situation and win despite the trainer not necessarily being a win early type of trainer.

One of my greatest regrets this year was not at least putting a few dollars on Social Inclusion's little sister, sired by win early Scat Daddy, in her career debut.

Because Matz trains her, she went off at 15/1. He doesn't use lasix on his babies either.

Equibase Link (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=DEL&dt=10/04/2014&ctry=USA&race=5)

[Stillriledup]

You can get great prices on trainers who have reputations as great horsemen because what kind of goes hand in hand with a great reputation is that great trainers slowly bring horses along and "do the right thing" and winning as a firster isnt necessarily viewed as the right thing for the long term health of the horse, you want to put a foundation under that horse before you let that horse run its best race....but like i said, some horses overcome the conservative stereotype of their trainer to win at a big price.

Sorry you missed this one, but you'll get the next one!