Poindexter
11-22-2014, 04:58 PM
Since the same horses essentially run every week, I will keep my focus on the last race. Not a bad idea to check out my write-ups for the last couple of weeks(that is what I do) for further info about prior races.
As usual free past performances at ustrotting.com. Good luck tonight.
10th)
Must use 4(so obviously my top choice)
Time to Roll-Obviously a huge class edge on this field. Has been racing strongly at the NW15000 level. You can draw a line through h is last race in the Invite, as he sat a 4 hole trip, but the horse sitting the 2 hole(Kanaris) gapped and shuffled this guy right out of the race. Did not clear until late and driver did not even bother at that point. Will be heavy chalk and I certainly could not argue with singling this guy if that is your choice.
Should use 2-3
2) Tink and Tiger-Was in very good form at Balmoral before shipping to Hoosier. Strong effort at Hooiser 10/25, poor effort on 10/31-switched back to his original barn and an improved effort on 11/14. Has the ability to race well 1st over if need be, but if driven properly he should protect the rail and try to sit the 2 hole behind Time to Roll.
3) Old Man River-Showed the ability to go 1st over in last and raced quite well. He has a nice little brush, so if he sits in (especially if he can sit a 2 hole trip) can be quite dangerous.
Could use 1-5-6
1 Extravagant Art-Continues to be very sharp. That being said, I think he will end up tucking 4 hole in here ahead of his entry mate. He usually sits which means he has to outclose some quick horses. Will need to catch a break or for the race to go differently than I forsee.
5 King of the Jungle-Has raced against some top notch 3 yo’s all year, but for whatever reason, he doesn’t seem to do that well at Balmoral. His last effort was very disappointing. He was used early to the top, before relinquishing the lead around the ¼ pole. Sat a 3 hole trip, but caught a break when 2nd over gapped and was able to come out 2nd over far turn, loomed prominently, but just could not kick it into another gear. Maybe he will be a little sharper(missed a week and shipped prior to last), but he will have to be a lot sharper to win here.
6 Real Winner-A hoosier shipper with no early speed but has some ability. Will likely need the pace to be quite lively, don’t think he will see that here. Finished behind Tink and Tiger 10/25 and ahead of him on 10/31.
11th)
Must Use 2-3-4(top choice 4)
2) Wildcat Bobby-Followed up Major Bombay in last and was unable to close nearly as well. That being said, he needs to be more forwardly placed to be effective. Has the ability to go first over if need be. 2 back actually went to the lead and raced very well. His prior 2 efforts put him right there.
3) Headsup Yankee-missed a week. Last effort was 1st over into a 54.3 last ½(and 27 second 3rd quarter) and did the best he could under the circumstance. Obviously can do better with a more reasonable pace situation.
4) Major Bombay-came up a live item on the tote board in last off of the 1 year layoff and big class drop. Was caught 3rd over into an evenly paced race and closed well, just not well enough to win. Should be a lot sharper tonight with a race under his belt.
Should use(1-5)
1-Life is good today-Never did get clearance in his last race, so we do not know what he would have done if clear. Had no chance in prior(8th into a 54.3 last ½). Prior efforts nothing to write home about. May be overbet because of the trouble in last.
5) Holy Chip-Mentioned my skepticism of the 11/8 race last week and this guy went to the top set very reasonable fractions and was unable to keep going . That being said, I do not think the lead is where he races best from. From the 5 post, could get a nice 2nd over trip.
Of the rest 7-10 look the best. Do not think either is good enough to win on this big class jump.
12th
Must use (3-4-5-6)-no top choice
3) Nancys Skyskape-been going 1st over a lot in recent weeks. Last week sat in, cleared, angled and closed nicely to get the job done.
4) Aces Again-was clearly better than these up to last week(where he was beaten 3/5 favorite). Last week, left, sat the 2 hole, got shuffled a bit, but did not muster up much of a close when clear midstretch-no excuse. Think he will be favored again and I think he is vulnerable again.
5) Svaya Knows-Had a perfect 2nd over trip and got nailed late. Still ran well enough to have a big look in here.
6) Sunset Dreamer-missed a week. In prior, rail rode in back of the pack and flew home. Prior race was a solid win vs cheaper(and also showed a new dimension by going wire to wire). Has tactical speed and has figures in last 2 that give him a big look in here.
Should use(8)
8) Always Jimmy Ray-Had a similar trip to Nancys Skyscape in last only he was further behind and cleared later and finished full of pace. Was a nice effort and a big improve. Switches to leading driver and if he wasn’t stuck out in the 8 hole I would consider him must use, but out there he will need some pace help. This guy does have a nice late brush however.
Could use(9)
9) Nitrogen fuse-Improved effort in last. Stuck out in the 9 post again which means he will likely be hard used to the top. Should hold better this time out as he is on the improve, but think beating these from the 9 hole is a tall order.
13th) Man this is a TOUGH race.
Must use(1-2-6-7-8-10)-no top choice
1-Bell Valley Bill-Has shown ability on occasion and is now freshened 6 weeks. Would normally want to see a race, but 56.3 last ½ in a qualifier is pretty impressive. I have to use him in a race with a lot of form clouds.
2-Western Slammer-Have no idea what to do with him. Put in his best performance yet 2 back, then ships to Maywood and gapped to another planet.
6-Crime of Passion-Boy I regret my poor handicapping the last time this guy ran. Completely underestimated his chances which cost me a very nice pick 4 score. Would be horse to beat off of that effort, except he scratched sick a week later. So what do I do with him today?
7-CD’s Ideal-I give him a very nice figure in his last race(parked a ¼ in 28.2 and motoring home in 27.2) only I am extremely skeptical of the figure(because basically an entire field of 4 claimers came home in 27 and change. Find that very hard to believe. This guy at least had a reason to improve (switch to Delong in last) and with so many form clouds has to be respected on the class jump.
8) Monopoy Man-my comment for the last was “3rd start in cycle. Nice improve last out from prior. Was 3rd over into that 56 second last half and closed best he could. Give him a good figure for the race and prior form(june 7th and 2013 form is much better than these). Has a big look” He went on to get looped and parked the mile through torrid fraction and amazingly stuck around. Still must deal with the 8 hole and as we found out in last, not really capable of leaving that well.
10) Ricky Bobby-The obvious favorite, but is a closer from the 10 hole. Could not have had an easier trip lagging off an overpaced race and blew by to be an easy winner.. Prior was impressive. Closers from the 10 holes are not my favorite gamble in harness racing but cleary must be used.
As usual free past performances at ustrotting.com. Good luck tonight.
10th)
Must use 4(so obviously my top choice)
Time to Roll-Obviously a huge class edge on this field. Has been racing strongly at the NW15000 level. You can draw a line through h is last race in the Invite, as he sat a 4 hole trip, but the horse sitting the 2 hole(Kanaris) gapped and shuffled this guy right out of the race. Did not clear until late and driver did not even bother at that point. Will be heavy chalk and I certainly could not argue with singling this guy if that is your choice.
Should use 2-3
2) Tink and Tiger-Was in very good form at Balmoral before shipping to Hoosier. Strong effort at Hooiser 10/25, poor effort on 10/31-switched back to his original barn and an improved effort on 11/14. Has the ability to race well 1st over if need be, but if driven properly he should protect the rail and try to sit the 2 hole behind Time to Roll.
3) Old Man River-Showed the ability to go 1st over in last and raced quite well. He has a nice little brush, so if he sits in (especially if he can sit a 2 hole trip) can be quite dangerous.
Could use 1-5-6
1 Extravagant Art-Continues to be very sharp. That being said, I think he will end up tucking 4 hole in here ahead of his entry mate. He usually sits which means he has to outclose some quick horses. Will need to catch a break or for the race to go differently than I forsee.
5 King of the Jungle-Has raced against some top notch 3 yo’s all year, but for whatever reason, he doesn’t seem to do that well at Balmoral. His last effort was very disappointing. He was used early to the top, before relinquishing the lead around the ¼ pole. Sat a 3 hole trip, but caught a break when 2nd over gapped and was able to come out 2nd over far turn, loomed prominently, but just could not kick it into another gear. Maybe he will be a little sharper(missed a week and shipped prior to last), but he will have to be a lot sharper to win here.
6 Real Winner-A hoosier shipper with no early speed but has some ability. Will likely need the pace to be quite lively, don’t think he will see that here. Finished behind Tink and Tiger 10/25 and ahead of him on 10/31.
11th)
Must Use 2-3-4(top choice 4)
2) Wildcat Bobby-Followed up Major Bombay in last and was unable to close nearly as well. That being said, he needs to be more forwardly placed to be effective. Has the ability to go first over if need be. 2 back actually went to the lead and raced very well. His prior 2 efforts put him right there.
3) Headsup Yankee-missed a week. Last effort was 1st over into a 54.3 last ½(and 27 second 3rd quarter) and did the best he could under the circumstance. Obviously can do better with a more reasonable pace situation.
4) Major Bombay-came up a live item on the tote board in last off of the 1 year layoff and big class drop. Was caught 3rd over into an evenly paced race and closed well, just not well enough to win. Should be a lot sharper tonight with a race under his belt.
Should use(1-5)
1-Life is good today-Never did get clearance in his last race, so we do not know what he would have done if clear. Had no chance in prior(8th into a 54.3 last ½). Prior efforts nothing to write home about. May be overbet because of the trouble in last.
5) Holy Chip-Mentioned my skepticism of the 11/8 race last week and this guy went to the top set very reasonable fractions and was unable to keep going . That being said, I do not think the lead is where he races best from. From the 5 post, could get a nice 2nd over trip.
Of the rest 7-10 look the best. Do not think either is good enough to win on this big class jump.
12th
Must use (3-4-5-6)-no top choice
3) Nancys Skyskape-been going 1st over a lot in recent weeks. Last week sat in, cleared, angled and closed nicely to get the job done.
4) Aces Again-was clearly better than these up to last week(where he was beaten 3/5 favorite). Last week, left, sat the 2 hole, got shuffled a bit, but did not muster up much of a close when clear midstretch-no excuse. Think he will be favored again and I think he is vulnerable again.
5) Svaya Knows-Had a perfect 2nd over trip and got nailed late. Still ran well enough to have a big look in here.
6) Sunset Dreamer-missed a week. In prior, rail rode in back of the pack and flew home. Prior race was a solid win vs cheaper(and also showed a new dimension by going wire to wire). Has tactical speed and has figures in last 2 that give him a big look in here.
Should use(8)
8) Always Jimmy Ray-Had a similar trip to Nancys Skyscape in last only he was further behind and cleared later and finished full of pace. Was a nice effort and a big improve. Switches to leading driver and if he wasn’t stuck out in the 8 hole I would consider him must use, but out there he will need some pace help. This guy does have a nice late brush however.
Could use(9)
9) Nitrogen fuse-Improved effort in last. Stuck out in the 9 post again which means he will likely be hard used to the top. Should hold better this time out as he is on the improve, but think beating these from the 9 hole is a tall order.
13th) Man this is a TOUGH race.
Must use(1-2-6-7-8-10)-no top choice
1-Bell Valley Bill-Has shown ability on occasion and is now freshened 6 weeks. Would normally want to see a race, but 56.3 last ½ in a qualifier is pretty impressive. I have to use him in a race with a lot of form clouds.
2-Western Slammer-Have no idea what to do with him. Put in his best performance yet 2 back, then ships to Maywood and gapped to another planet.
6-Crime of Passion-Boy I regret my poor handicapping the last time this guy ran. Completely underestimated his chances which cost me a very nice pick 4 score. Would be horse to beat off of that effort, except he scratched sick a week later. So what do I do with him today?
7-CD’s Ideal-I give him a very nice figure in his last race(parked a ¼ in 28.2 and motoring home in 27.2) only I am extremely skeptical of the figure(because basically an entire field of 4 claimers came home in 27 and change. Find that very hard to believe. This guy at least had a reason to improve (switch to Delong in last) and with so many form clouds has to be respected on the class jump.
8) Monopoy Man-my comment for the last was “3rd start in cycle. Nice improve last out from prior. Was 3rd over into that 56 second last half and closed best he could. Give him a good figure for the race and prior form(june 7th and 2013 form is much better than these). Has a big look” He went on to get looped and parked the mile through torrid fraction and amazingly stuck around. Still must deal with the 8 hole and as we found out in last, not really capable of leaving that well.
10) Ricky Bobby-The obvious favorite, but is a closer from the 10 hole. Could not have had an easier trip lagging off an overpaced race and blew by to be an easy winner.. Prior was impressive. Closers from the 10 holes are not my favorite gamble in harness racing but cleary must be used.