'Never's' in Handicapping??

[sq764]

Since handicapping is so subjective and situational, I know its tough for anyone to say "I would NEVER bet this type of race or this type of horse" or would eliminate a horse because of some criteria 100% of the time. With that being said, I was curious what everyone "I will never" handicapping list consists of..

For me:

1) I will never bet a race with 6 or less horses
2) I will never bet a race where 2 or more horses are coming off of maiden wins
3) I will never bet a race where I love the horse, but the trainer and jockey are awful


Scott

[ceejay]

I never bet an MSW after 12 losses or more. This rule doesn't apply to MCL.

[anotherdave]

I never say never. I pass a lot of races, but I just can't make rules so firmly. I try to never bet on an underlay(but I still end up doing it!) Other than that, I don't know.

One of the nevers that was mentioned was betting on races with 6 horses or less. Off the top of my head I can remember some nice wins in that situation. About a year ago, there was a 4 horse race. My horse was the long shot at 4-1 (hey it was a 4 horse race!). I was almost certain he would win, probably as certain as I have been on a horse in the last 5 years. He did (I guess or my story would have a vital flaw) easily - 4 or 5 lengths. I can remember some beautiful exactas on 5 horse races too. One in particular paid $180 and I had $20 on it. (Now that was a couple years ago - if you see my last post you might notice I have given up on exotics!)

Regardless, I think everyone has their own styles and approaches. You have to. If your nevers work for you - great. For me it doesn't work. Everyone handicaps and bets in different ways and while many of us win, we often don't bet the same horses!

[andicap]

I'll never bet a 9 yr old maiden, a horse who's older than his speed figures or a filly who goes into heat in the post parade -- when she's racing against colts. I'm also not crazy about 2nd time gelded or any more named Karakorum.
I'm also prejudiced against a horse who is first time in the U.S. from Afghanistan (or any -stan for that matter) or a 6 yr old who is made favorite today by virtue of having raced in the Kentucky Derby.
I'm will also avoid any horse who has been touted by at least 10 racing writers as the next coming of Secretariat or Ruffian, especially if those writers spend their entire day in the press box eating donuts and ripping other writers.
Finally, I will absolutely positively bet against ANY horse touted by Jerry Bossert.

[kingmambo]

i use to never bet maidens after they were 0-8 but
after i read the SEABISCUIT book and found out that
he broke his maiden in his sevententh start, i now
believe that greatness is just around the corner--
at 5-1 or better.....

[superfecta]

I never bet to win,I always play exotics!I couldn't believe it until I looked back at my bets this past year.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by superfecta
I never bet to win,I always play exotics!I couldn't believe it until I looked back at my bets this past year.

Hence the name superfecta.

[NoDayJob]

I ONLY BET ON WALKOVERS. -NDJ

[Tom]

I NEVER win!
(It's only a coincidence that my tax forms came today!)
~G~

Tom