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View Full Version : Honor Code returns on Saturday at Aqueduct


letswastemoney
11-19-2014, 06:04 PM
It's a 6.5 F sprint. I think it's too short for him, although I haven't looked at the competition yet (I will today).

What do you think?

letswastemoney
11-19-2014, 07:01 PM
After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=6&param1=1782&param2=5346&param3=785460)

Cratos
11-19-2014, 08:50 PM
After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=6&param1=1782&param2=5346&param3=785460)
This is a "throwback" race of the 60s and 70s; Snug's horse will get the job done because he is the class of this bunch.

the little guy
11-19-2014, 09:16 PM
After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=6&param1=1782&param2=5346&param3=785460)

It looks like a good race to bet, as Honor Code will likely be dramatically overbet, and even if he somehow wins, he rates to be poor value. Shug has bad numbers off layoffs on dirt and this is clearly a prep, plus there are good horses in here.

The problem with Maleeh, and Kiaran has exceptional numbers off layoffs in dirt sprints, is that this is just his second race in over 19 months.

I picked Pure Sensation, though I am a little worried about the pace.

DeltaLover
11-19-2014, 09:35 PM
Green Gratto looks good to me...

Robert Fischer
11-19-2014, 10:18 PM
Crafty Dreamer looks like an overlay, but this is a race where you probably should go fairly deep.

arw629
11-19-2014, 11:53 PM
Green Gratto will be at least 60-1 against this field....

arw629
11-20-2014, 12:09 AM
I think 5-2 3-1 on Honor Code would be excellent value in this spot...this horse should be at his best one turn sprinting and there should be a good amount of pace to run into....I don't think Shug will have him all the way cranked up but I don't think he has to be his best to win in this spot

EMD4ME
11-20-2014, 12:47 AM
It will be a Monster Mash in this race... :)

Stillriledup
11-20-2014, 12:52 AM
Andy's right, HC will be overbet, especially if it doesn't appear to be a speed bias. Very hard race, first time vs salty older horses for HC and he will be in the back in a large field. 2-1 or 5-2 might be an ok price, but my gut tells me he will be closer to 1-1.

Someone mentioned Green Gratto, that's an amazingly interesting horse, started off his career with Beyers of: 34, 22, 20, 0 and 46. Than, starting in his 6th lifetime start, he reeled off Beyers of: 73, 77, 90, 95, 83, 92 and 93.

Now he's back to the 40s and 50s. You rarely see that kind of jump, from a horse who can't run at all, to a serious horse running 90+.

I might take a shot with Crafty Dreamer, he likes the track, has a nice work over it on Nov 13th, he's going to need racing luck in this wide open affair.

Robert Fischer
11-20-2014, 09:58 AM
I might take a shot with Crafty Dreamer, he likes the track, has a nice work over it on Nov 13th, he's going to need racing luck in this wide open affair.
Yea, I had CD in the mix rated as a decent value on July 13 (that was a race with a bad morning line & I thought he had run well enough from post 13, in Zivo's Commentator previously to be a value key). However, on July 13th the pace was arguably pretty fast.
He then Drops to Alw1x and scores next out Sept 7th (I haven't reviewed that race yet he was still nearly 4-1, so either he was an overlay that I missed, or there were decent foes).
Then, he comes back in the Hudson and is 23-1, and finishes 4.75 back from post 11.

I like Honor Code. I took a shot against him in Florida because that sharp sprinter drew inside, and he was underlaid, but he's a quality horse. I'll root for him here.

However, if Honor Code is 4/5, it may be prudent to spread around, do a key with Crafty Dreamer, do a key with the Clement horse. I'm not even against using Maleeh(230days/race/245days) as a B or 'C' horse as part of the spread-around, if Honor Code is a massive underlay.

DeltaLover
11-20-2014, 10:31 AM
Good betting race..

Honor Code has already started as the favorite three times, managing to loose two of them.

This ridgling's career high light so far, was his last year's victory in Remsen..

His injury kept him out for nine months, falling behind in his evolution as a promising three years old. Pedigree-wise looks more like a turf router.

Tries older for first time.

Why he is entered in such a soft spot ? I would expect to see him next year in Florida against classier company..

I believe he will certainly be over-bet and will be a perfect favourite to bet against. Pace scenario and track bias are the key factors for this race... Under the right conditions, I can see the potential for a huge surprise here...

classhandicapper
11-20-2014, 10:51 AM
I'm going to guess that Honor Code will only be a lukewarm favorite and possibly not the favorite at all.

You've got the injury, layoff, distance, and Shug almost certainly using this as a prep all being obvious concerns. IMO he won't get bet heavily.

Robert Fischer
11-20-2014, 11:04 AM
I'm going to guess that Honor Code will only be a lukewarm favorite and possibly not the favorite at all.

If he's not the favorite, would be a good day to go to the zoo.

Supposed to be sunny.

letswastemoney
11-20-2014, 06:45 PM
I think 5-2 3-1 on Honor Code would be excellent value in this spot...this horse should be at his best one turn sprinting and there should be a good amount of pace to run into....I don't think Shug will have him all the way cranked up but I don't think he has to be his best to win in this spotIt's pretty rare that an A.P. Indy prefers sprinting, and I was about to write on the route features of Honor Code's dam side. Then I found his dam was a sprinter.

His third dam is Serena's Song though, one of the greatest female dirt routers of the past 20 years.

In addition, Honor Code's immediate sibling is Noble Tune, a good turf horse that competed in turf routes.

DeltaLover
11-20-2014, 07:52 PM
His third dam is Serena's Song though, one of the greatest female dirt routers of the past 20 years.

How about his sedond dam? Was she any good?

DeltaLover
11-20-2014, 08:14 PM
It's pretty rare that an A.P. Indy prefers sprinting, and I was about to write on the route features of Honor Code's dam side. Then I found his dam was a sprinter.

Absolutely correct :ThmbUp:

I can verify that when it comes to AP INDY favorites only:

The winning % for routes (>1600) is 45% with a roi of 1.04 while for sprints it is only 25% with a ROI of 0.81

http://themindofagambler.com/api_indy.jpg

letswastemoney
11-20-2014, 10:01 PM
How about his second dam? Was she any good?Serena's Tune was a multiple stakes winner that failed in her route attempts...which is surprising considering that her dam is Serena's Song.

Serena's Tune's sire is Mr. Prospector, if that makes a difference.

Despite that, even when sprinters are bred to A.P. Indy, they usually result in, at the very least, middle distance types such as Dreaming of Julia, and I realize Dreaming of Julia won her sprint debut but she also won two route races. I still think Honor Code is a route horse.

Prytanis
11-20-2014, 10:25 PM
I like the ridgling in here!
Sam Sparkle

davew
11-22-2014, 12:20 PM
this will be a good race to watch the show pools

if some bridgejumpers like Honor Code, I will bet against - just too many firsts for this class horse. I would be surprised if get 2/1 in win pool and the competition is not that shabby.

woodtoo
11-22-2014, 12:22 PM
:3: :9: scratched

With the 9 out I like :11: Great Attack,been a long time since he's seen a fast
track, with :2: Maleeh.

Redboard
11-22-2014, 01:42 PM
Green Gratto will be at least 60-1 against this field....
For good reason too. This is the horses 12th race this year. Looks like hes burnt out and needs a rest, not a new trainer. If he hits the board, im a pumpkin.Note that he's up for a tag, what a shocker.

cj
11-22-2014, 01:45 PM
If Honor Code runs well, I'd love to see him try the Malibu next, but I doubt that would ever cross Shug's mind.

the little guy
11-22-2014, 01:57 PM
If Honor Code runs well, I'd love to see him try the Malibu next, but I doubt that would ever cross Shug's mind.

That's a little unfair. Shug ships to CA.

It's a good idea. I will ask him. I wonder if he might be hesitant to ship a horse coming off a serious injury across the country.

cj
11-22-2014, 02:05 PM
That's a little unfair. Shug ships to CA.

It's a good idea. I will ask him. I wonder if he might be hesitant to ship a horse coming off a serious injury across the country.

I know he does, I just don't know if another sprint is in the cards, that is what I meant. Obviously a lot depends on how he runs today, but it could be a great spot.

Robert Fischer
11-22-2014, 02:38 PM
Bets total = $295.60
$40Win on :1: ,:2:, and :7:

$2 Exacta box 125711 =$40
$5 exacta box 127 =$30


Dime supers:

1
257811
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
1
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
257811
1
25781011 =$8

2
157811
157811
15781011 =$8


157811
2
157811
15781011 =$8

157811
157811
2
15781011 =$8

7
257811
257811
25781011 =$8

257811
7
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
257811
7
25781011 =$8

127
1257811
1257811
125781011 =$24

127
127
1257811
125781011 =$9.60

Robert Fischer
11-22-2014, 02:50 PM
Good to see Honor Code run like a graded stakes horse.

arw629
11-22-2014, 02:50 PM
like I said earlier in the week....honor code at his best going one turn sprinting....

Stillriledup
11-22-2014, 02:55 PM
If Honor Code runs well, I'd love to see him try the Malibu next, but I doubt that would ever cross Shug's mind.

I think what you have to weigh is the speed favoring nature of the track and they might soup it up on opening day to create fast times, but this race seems to historically be ok for closers, the pace will be very fast, what would sway me to go there if i owned this horse is how much speed is going to be in the race, if there figures to be a hot pace, its something to definitely consider.

Robert Fischer
11-22-2014, 02:57 PM
Honor Code is being positioned to be a future stud as an AP Indy line stud.

They will stretch him out and try to win some major grade I route races.

Stillriledup
11-22-2014, 03:06 PM
Honor Code is being positioned to be a future stud as an AP Indy line stud.

They will stretch him out and try to win some major grade I route races.

It wouldn't hurt his value at all to win a race in California, they might want to gradually work their way to two turns, he's an exciting horse and he's certainly in a stable that will do right by him going forward.

Robert Fischer
11-22-2014, 03:13 PM
He looked classy today beating up on allowance foes, behind a great pace setup.

Looked like he got a race under his belt, and should have moved forward a little.

No need to ship to California, and butt-heads @ 7f and risk losing that momentum.

Stillriledup
11-22-2014, 03:23 PM
He looked classy today beating up on allowance foes, behind a great pace setup.

Looked like he got a race under his belt, and should have moved forward a little.

No need to ship to California, and butt-heads @ 7f and risk losing that momentum.

No doubt. If he was mine, i would stay on the east coast. But i wouldn't criticize a west coast ship for the Malibu if that's what they decided.

cj
11-22-2014, 03:29 PM
He looked classy today beating up on allowance foes, behind a great pace setup.

Looked like he got a race under his belt, and should have moved forward a little.

No need to ship to California, and butt-heads @ 7f and risk losing that momentum.

What? Sorry, I don't get this kind of thinking. It is a G1. Winning one at 7f would enhance his value, not hurt it. And momentum just sounds silly to me. He's a horse.

arw629
11-22-2014, 03:30 PM
I would stretch him out for a start or two to keep him tight and aim towards a big stake 6f-8f in the spring

classhandicapper
11-22-2014, 03:35 PM
He got a pretty good pace setup, but that was about as impressive as Shug could have hoped. I'm glad the rest of the field was so flawed or I would have played against him. Now we have to see if he can go forward.

I'm not sure I'm buying into the idea that he's a better sprinter. We knew he had a tremendous turn of foot from his first start, but I saw nothing in the Champagne or Remsen to suggest he doesn't want to go longer too. I thought he was excellent in the Champagne. The Remsen was clouded by the extreme pace, but at least he won. The only disappointing race was the ALW race against Social Inclusion, but that was GP, it was a slow pace, he was having issues at the time and was not 100%, and it may have said more about Social Inclusion than Honor Code. SI was a disappointment later with suspect handling, but IMO he was very good that day and in the Wood.

classhandicapper
11-22-2014, 03:45 PM
I'd only consider shipping to CA for the Malibu if that race looks a little soft. He was very impressive, but it's not like he beat a really good field today. Most people I know that were looking to play against him were struggling to come up with someone not flawed enough to be worth taking a stab with.

Does anyone have an idea which horses are looking at the Malibu?

Valuist
11-22-2014, 03:55 PM
I'd only consider shipping to CA for the Malibu if that race looks a little soft. He was very impressive, but it's not like he beat a really good field today. Most people I know that were looking to play against him were struggling to come up with someone not flawed enough to be worth taking a stab with.

Does anyone have an idea which horses are looking at the Malibu?

It maybe wasn't the best field, but could he have done it any easier?

classhandicapper
11-22-2014, 03:58 PM
It maybe wasn't the best field, but could he have done it any easier?

No. Late in the stretch run I got a flashback of watching Forego win a sprint prep years ago.....but then I came to my senses. ;)

ILovetheInner
11-22-2014, 04:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69mBgbkuIfk

There you go....turning back from ten!

Doubt Shug could be any happier from this comeback. Acts like a racehorse. I'd expect them to have fun with him down in FL versus shipping west to go seven.

Stillriledup
11-22-2014, 04:51 PM
I'd only consider shipping to CA for the Malibu if that race looks a little soft. He was very impressive, but it's not like he beat a really good field today. Most people I know that were looking to play against him were struggling to come up with someone not flawed enough to be worth taking a stab with.

Does anyone have an idea which horses are looking at the Malibu?

It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?

Track Phantom
11-22-2014, 05:16 PM
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?

Yes

DeltaLover
11-22-2014, 05:19 PM
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?

Absolutely!

(What are the chances this contenst will materialize any time soon?)

biggestal99
11-22-2014, 05:21 PM
I would stretch him out for a start or two to keep him tight and aim towards a big stake 6f-8f in the spring

He,s a natural for the met mile

Allan

biggestal99
11-22-2014, 05:25 PM
No. Late in the stretch run I got a flashback of watching Forego win a sprint prep years ago.....but then I came to my senses. ;)

Lol sprint prep, you know forego won sprinter of the year

He took the vosbough. :-)

Allan

classhandicapper
11-22-2014, 06:26 PM
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?

I understand your point and agree with it.

Here's my point.

Michael Jordan would crush me. Then again, so would thousands of other basketball players below the NBA level. So if some basketball player crushes me, is he MJ or just one of many people than can crush me.

A lot of horses would have looked great and won easily against that field.

I've been a huge fan of HC since I was at Saratoga and saw his electrifying debut. But I don't think we know yet how good he is (at least I don't). We'll find out when he faces MJ. ;)

cj
11-22-2014, 06:32 PM
I understand your point and agree with it.

Here's my point.

Michael Jordan would crush me. Then again, so would thousands of other basketball players below the NBA level. So if some basketball player crushes me, is he MJ or just one of many people than can crush me.

A lot of horses would have looked great and won easily against that field.

I've been a huge fan of HC since I was at Saratoga and saw his electrifying debut. But I don't think we know yet how good he is (at least I don't). We'll find out when he faces MJ. ;)

Much easier to judge horses by losses which is what makes undefeated horses very tough to assess.

Thebigguy
11-22-2014, 06:39 PM
Bets total = $295.60
$40Win on :1: ,:2:, and :7:

$2 Exacta box 125711 =$40
$5 exacta box 127 =$30


Dime supers:

1
257811
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
1
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
257811
1
25781011 =$8

2
157811
157811
15781011 =$8


157811
2
157811
15781011 =$8

157811
157811
2
15781011 =$8

7
257811
257811
25781011 =$8

257811
7
257811
25781011 =$8


257811
257811
7
25781011 =$8

127
1257811
1257811
125781011 =$24

127
127
1257811
125781011 =$9.60

This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.

Stillriledup
11-22-2014, 08:09 PM
This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.

He didnt bet 3 HORSES to win, he made 3 separate bets on BETS. much like an exacta box is 6 separate bets, 3 win bets is 3 separate bets. If you make 3 win bets in a 10 horse field, you are betting 30% of all possible winning combos. Its similar to making a 5 horse exacta box in a 10 horse field.

Robert Fischer
11-22-2014, 08:44 PM
This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.
Please accept my apology.

I must concede that my exactas and superfectas were crude and innefient.

In addition to being too spread out for a race in which the target underlay(Honor Code) was a relatively high 1.85-1, I also failed to designate :5: Monster Mash as being preferred to the :11:, and I made a typo on the Pure Sensation superfecta key.

As for the win wager, I never have a problem betting 3 horses to win in this type of scenario, and should they be ranked from greatest to least for my opinion of value (as the :1: :7: :2: were for this race), I have no problem betting equal amounts on each. I am however sorry that the :1: did not narrowly defeat the :7: in a ding-dong stretch duel.

I hope these concessions will provide you with a sense of obligation to reciprocate, and perhaps one day in the future allow me to rebuild my credibility in your book.

Cratos
11-22-2014, 09:01 PM
I believe Shug got what he wanted; "a workout in company*

I don't know how far away the running of the Clark or if he was nominated for that race, but it might be a good race for him.

If Honor Code stays healthy, we might see some very good performances from him in 2015.

horses4courses
11-22-2014, 09:21 PM
I don't know how far away the running of the Clark or if he was nominated for that race, but it might be a good race for him.

The Clark is next Friday.

Shug is old school, which is to his credit.
Honor Code, imo, is likely to head to Gulfstream,
have another prep in January, and aim for the Donn.

burnsy
11-22-2014, 11:07 PM
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?

Of course, that was not a great field. You won't know about this horse until he runs in stakes. This is where horse racing is akin to boxing. It's easy to beat the "set up" heals to bolster a record. This is something people get burned by all the time and they never learn from it. They see a name horse win impressively and he's the "talent" of the universe.....goes into a race with equals or better, gets overbet because prior efforts look so good and gets buried. Just like that local boxer with a 12-0 record, he goes out of town, fights someone decent and its lights out, living on easy street is over. Many times in boxing its the beginning of the end for a career when it happens. In horse racing, they get exposed for how good they really are and tear up those tickets at short odds. People go gaga over these horses way before they earn it. It took this horse practically a year to win. Maybe he's not an example of that but beating lesser really is not a good way to evaluate talent. Hell, I can't beat MJ either but I can beat Grandpa Joe seven freakin days a week. In any sport you don't prove your mettle until you face your equals. One of my favorite "bet against" deals is a horse at short odds moving up because everyone thinks they are great. Does it work every time? No....but it works good enough. Still plenty to prove IMO. I read one jack ass that had this horse winning the Triple Crown, the Travers and the BC Classic if he didn't get hurt. I am so happy that people like that bet this game. I think they actually believe themselves when they say it too. :) It does matter who you beat, once you meet someone better than that.

RacingFan1992
11-22-2014, 11:12 PM
"I read one jack ass that had this horse winning the Triple Crown, the Travers and the BC Classic if he didn't get hurt."

Hee Haw. That was me. Meah. Oh well.

classhandicapper
11-23-2014, 08:51 AM
Much easier to judge horses by losses which is what makes undefeated horses very tough to assess.

Agreed.

It's an interesting handicapping dilemma. Some people will say horse "x' is being overbet simply because he's undefeated. They may be right relative to the horse's past figures, except that more of those horses are capable of and do jump up. It can make for embarrassing opinions when you are wrong.

classhandicapper
11-23-2014, 09:05 AM
106 Preliminary Beyer

Wow, good setup or not that's pretty fast.

cj
11-23-2014, 10:33 AM
106 Preliminary Beyer

Wow, good setup or not that's pretty fast.

That was an average allowance horse in the 80s.

Tom
11-23-2014, 11:16 AM
Now its a grade one. :rolleyes:

classhandicapper
11-23-2014, 11:23 AM
That was an average allowance horse in the 80s.

Tom is right. Now it's getting pretty close to the Grade 1 par for older males.

It annoys me that various figures makers have horses either getting faster, slower, or remaining flat long term. Not that it matters in my handicapping now or that I have a solution. I don't. It's that prominent people then use these figures to make historical comparisons that are clearly highly suspect.

the little guy
11-23-2014, 11:41 AM
Tom is right. Now it's getting pretty close to the Grade 1 par for older males.

It annoys me that various figures makers have horses either getting faster, slower, or remaining flat long term. Not that it matters in my handicapping now or that I have a solution. I don't. It's that prominent people then use these figures to make historical comparisons that are clearly highly suspect.

So, the DRF opinion on speed figures, including Beyers, is that the numbers are "clearly highly suspect."

Gotcha.

ILovetheInner
11-23-2014, 11:45 AM
Now its a grade one. :rolleyes:

True, that.

098poi
11-23-2014, 11:48 AM
Much easier to judge horses by losses which is what makes undefeated horses very tough to assess.

Excellent point! Worth remembering.

foregoforever
11-23-2014, 11:53 AM
So, the DRF opinion on speed figures, including Beyers, is that the numbers are "clearly highly suspect."

I think he meant that some prominent people are "clearly highly suspect".
:)

Tall One
11-23-2014, 12:05 PM
The Clark is next Friday.

Shug is old school, which is to his credit.
Honor Code, imo, is likely to head to Gulfstream,
have another prep in January, and aim for the Donn.






HC will probably head to S Florida like the majority of Shug's horses do every year. Thought HC made a nice move down the lane, and definitely got some seasoning with his return effort. This horse could do some big things next year.

Robert Fischer
11-23-2014, 12:11 PM
Shug is old school, which is to his credit.
Honor Code, imo, is likely to head to Gulfstream,
have another prep in January, and aim for the Donn.

Logical. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
February 7th 2015.

Once this horse gets into peak condition, it will actually be easier at 2 turns.

He'll be closer to the pace. Less dependent on the setup in most cases.

I think it gets lost in the hype here, that he got a very good trip in his allowance comeback race.

-The field was very spread out initially and the Scuderi horse got pressured up front by the long-shot. They all kind of bunched up into the turn trying to get into position to tackle the leaders. At That point, Castellano had wisely yet to commit, and continued to patiently guide Honor Code in the 3path. The field entered the stretch and leaders had flattened out, and Maleeh tried to slip through while Monster Mash was being asked outside, and all Honor Code had to do, was be Honor Code.

This is Lanes Ends 'Last Great A.P. INDY'.

The goal is to get that 2-turn grade I, and promote his value as a sire as much as possible.

He's certainly a beautiful animal, he's got good fundamentals. Will be fun to watch him as 4yo.

classhandicapper
11-23-2014, 12:47 PM
So, the DRF opinion on speed figures, including Beyers, is that the numbers are "clearly highly suspect."

Gotcha.

First off, let's get one thing straight. When I speak here or anywhere else I am speaking as a horse player the way I have for a long time on this and other forums. The DRF speaks for itself. So cut the BS. You know better.

Now let's look at the facts.

It's a fact that Jerry Brown has had horses getting faster over the years. He defends that position.

It's a fact that over the same period Ragozin has had horses generally flat with a little spike during what Friedman calls the "steroid" era.

It's a fact that Beyer figures have been shrinking at the highest levels in recent years (perhaps due to steroids becoming illegal)

There are theories about the use of steroids, illegal drug use, better nutrition and training methods, tying figures to PARs, breeding etc.. that various people have used to account for figure drift over and above the difficulty in keeping them flat as a matter of process.

But none of that accounts for why all the leading figure makers disagree. Without question that means that controlling for long term figure drift is an issue. Since I (and no one else I know) can prove who has it right (if anyone) it seems preposterous to make comparisons between horses that ran 10, 20, or more years ago and today based on any set of figures. The horses, the conditions, the drugs (legal an illegal) have changed and it's tough for every figure maker to cope with drift. But smart people make such comparisons all the time. I find it annoying.

I also find it annoying when smart people compare baseball players from different eras on batting average. Wait a minute, they know better in baseball and stopped doing that. Only in racing do people still do that.

cj
11-23-2014, 11:13 PM
Beyer Speed Chart:

Honor Code 6.5f 1:17.33 93
Readthebyline 7f 1:23.85 92

Beyer Speed Figure

Honor Code 106
Readthebyline 98

I split variants plenty of times myself, but I don't see it here.

Tom
11-24-2014, 03:50 PM
Funny how he got that number.....here's the whole day.
Looks like a pretty straight-forward day. I would love to the the explanation of this one.

Getting the DRF Winner's Books and charting the Beyers like this is well worth it - I find more than a few like this. I just am not impressed with Honor Code at all yet. Two wins of slow paced and now a very ordinary allowance race. When he does something to talk about, let me know.

Stillriledup
11-24-2014, 04:02 PM
Of course, that was not a great field. You won't know about this horse until he runs in stakes. This is where horse racing is akin to boxing. It's easy to beat the "set up" heals to bolster a record. This is something people get burned by all the time and they never learn from it. They see a name horse win impressively and he's the "talent" of the universe.....goes into a race with equals or better, gets overbet because prior efforts look so good and gets buried. Just like that local boxer with a 12-0 record, he goes out of town, fights someone decent and its lights out, living on easy street is over. Many times in boxing its the beginning of the end for a career when it happens. In horse racing, they get exposed for how good they really are and tear up those tickets at short odds. People go gaga over these horses way before they earn it. It took this horse practically a year to win. Maybe he's not an example of that but beating lesser really is not a good way to evaluate talent. Hell, I can't beat MJ either but I can beat Grandpa Joe seven freakin days a week. In any sport you don't prove your mettle until you face your equals. One of my favorite "bet against" deals is a horse at short odds moving up because everyone thinks they are great. Does it work every time? No....but it works good enough. Still plenty to prove IMO. I read one jack ass that had this horse winning the Triple Crown, the Travers and the BC Classic if he didn't get hurt. I am so happy that people like that bet this game. I think they actually believe themselves when they say it too. :) It does matter who you beat, once you meet someone better than that.

First of all, "Grandpa Joe" is really Kyrie Irving in a disguise, so you wouldn't be able to beat him. :D

Secondly, i agree that you don't prove your meddle until you actually face someone who's good, my philosophy is to not downgrade a horse because he beat nothing, i would only downgrade based on visually inspecting the horse and trying to determine that horse's talent, even some of the best horses of all time have raced in suspect fields on occasion, and it wasn't their fault, so i wasn't going to downgrade a special horse because of that. There are other ways to downgrade for me, and looking at who a horse beat isn't one of them most of the time.

The one time i would downgrade a horse at least slightly is if that horse seemed to have to work very hard to beat a horse i know stinks. That's when i'll use competition lines a little bit, but most times, i'm just going on the video of the individual and not worrying about what's behind him.