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highnote
11-19-2014, 03:41 PM
10 to 25 years ago there was a mini revolution in handicapping books -- Quinn, Quirin, Ziemba, Beyer, Fotias, Meadow, Cramer, Sartin, Brohammer, Bradshaw, Mordin, Carroll, Litfin, et al.

I can only think of one good book on racing in the past 5 years -- CX Wong's "Precision" book.

What are the other good books that have been published in the last five years on racing?

thaskalos
11-19-2014, 03:43 PM
The readers have gotten wise...

Overlay
11-19-2014, 09:25 PM
10 to 25 years ago there was a mini revolution in handicapping books -- Quinn, Quirin, Ziemba, Beyer, Fotias, Meadow, Cramer, Sartin, Brohammer, Bradshaw, Mordin, Carroll, Litfin, et al.

I can only think of one good book on racing in the past 5 years -- CX Wong's "Precision" book.

What are the other good books that have been published in the last five years on racing?
Dave Schwartz's Percentages and Probabilities 2012 comes to mind. Is that type of statistical study within the scope of your question, or do you mean texts with more narrative? And when you say "published", are you referring only to mass-market titles that would be available in a bookstore?

banacek
11-19-2014, 09:52 PM
Handicapping the Wall Street Way? :lol: :lol:

Actually, I can't think of a good book in the last 5-8 years (leaving out statistical studies like Dave's book). But hope springs eternal...Thaskalos book is in the works!

ReplayRandall
11-19-2014, 09:59 PM
10 to 25 years ago there was a mini revolution in handicapping books -- Quinn, Quirin, Ziemba, Beyer, Fotias, Meadow, Cramer, Sartin, Brohammer, Bradshaw, Mordin, Carroll, Litfin, et al.

I can only think of one good book on racing in the past 5 years -- CX Wong's "Precision" book.

What are the other good books that have been published in the last five years on racing?


When I went to Vegas last April, the wife always lets me visit my favorite place, the Gambler's Book Club on S. Eastern. However, when we got there, they had moved in with the Gambler's General Store, to S. Main between Charleston & Fremont. The manager, Peter Ruchman is the most knowledgeable and resourceful guy you'll ever meet. Peter, and Howard Schwartz, if he's around, are from the same old school philosophy as the original owner John Luckman, who passed in '87. Great place to visit! Here is the latest on the Horse Racing front:

http://gamblersbookclub.com/Horse-Dog-Racing/Thoroughbred/All-Thoroughbred-Books/#.VG1E6s8o45s

highnote
11-19-2014, 11:49 PM
Dave Schwartz's Percentages and Probabilities 2012 comes to mind. Is that type of statistical study within the scope of your question, or do you mean texts with more narrative? And when you say "published", are you referring only to mass-market titles that would be available in a bookstore?

No qualifications -- any book that is for sale.

highnote
11-19-2014, 11:50 PM
Thanks for the link. Looks like some interesting books there!


http://gamblersbookclub.com/Horse-Dog-Racing/Thoroughbred/All-Thoroughbred-Books/#.VG1E6s8o45s

DRIVEWAY
11-20-2014, 12:19 AM
If you handicap with software, the challenge is to evaluate the reason for eliminating a horse from consideration.

Track these elimination reasons for a week and see if a pattern or two develops. As your handicapping ability improves and your win percentage evolves, your are also agreeing more and more with the general public.

That means you are eliminating horses for similar reasons. Identify weakness and flaws in these reasons and you will uncover hidden opportunities.

When you read a lot of handicapping books look to identify similarities in the elimination process. The elimination rules will define reason types that can be tracked.

It's not always easy to separate yourself from the competition. Handicapping for mediocrity while tracking elimination reasons maybe that path.

banacek
11-20-2014, 12:31 AM
It is unfortunate because the game has changed quite a bit from 20-30 years ago..time for some updating. I guess there isn't much incentive anymore, because they realize they not going to sell the number of copies like Picking Winners did (as an example).

Robert Goren
11-20-2014, 12:51 AM
The Randy Giles book is a little over the 5 year limit. It is very good. You should read it if you haven't already. Pandy has put out a couple of books that I haven't read, but have gotten high praise here.
C X Wong's book is a How to stats text book for using "R" with horse race data. There is no new ideas about handicapping in it. Not even any old ideas in it.

DeltaLover
11-20-2014, 11:03 AM
There is no new ideas about handicapping in it. Not even any old ideas in it.

How do you define handicapping ?

Robert Goren
11-20-2014, 12:18 PM
How do you define handicapping ?Picking a winning ticket or trying to so. A book on data processing is not book on handicapping. While C X Wong's book might have shown a new method of Data Processing to some bettors, the method(s) used in the book is hardly new and has been used in other fields for quite some time.

DeltaLover
11-20-2014, 01:14 PM
Picking a winning ticket or trying to so. A book on data processing is not book on handicapping. While C X Wong's book might have shown a new method of Data Processing to some bettors, the method(s) used in the book is hardly new and has been used in other fields for quite some time.

Not sure I like your definition of : Picking a winning ticket

I would say something like this:

Handicapping is the process of identifying patterns with predictable performance

For example having a three year old running against older in the beginning of the year, is pattern with handicapping value, since we can prove that this type of matches are in disadvantage as far as their winning share is going.

Another example, can be found on a horse dropping from Maiden special Weights to Maiden Claimers, and angle that clearly favours its winning chances...

If we agree in this definition, I do not really think there is anything new when it comes to handicapping. Of course, the angles might change as time goes by, but the concept remains exactly the same...

RaceBookJoe
11-20-2014, 02:54 PM
About 10yrs ago, Greg Wry wrote a book, "How to Turn Any Track Into Your Own Money Machine " , that I felt might be a decent read for someone brand new to horseracing. Its basically how he goes through his handicapping process. Its not technical like Brohamer etc, but it gives an outline to a basic start-to-finish handicapping process. From there, the newbie can go into learning pace,trips etc. Most readers here most likely wouldn't find it helpful though.

Gapfire
11-20-2014, 07:51 PM
My father's book "Logical Longshots" is a great book. As is our site, no one does better for the price bar none! Sorry to resort to bragging, but our service gives out better info than anyone.

Gapfire
11-20-2014, 07:53 PM
I say all this after about 12 trifectas today.. Overly jubilant maybe? LOL

Gapfire
11-20-2014, 08:10 PM
Seriously folks. This game come down to:

A) Is my horse fit today?

B) Does my horse have the figures to run with these animals today?

C) Does my trainer have the knack to find a race where the above critera fits?

D) Does my jockey know how to put a horse in the proper place in the pace of the race.

If you get those four, you have a good shot to cash your bet.

Overlay
11-20-2014, 08:52 PM
Seriously folks. This game come down to:

A) Is my horse fit today?

B) Does my horse have the figures to run with these animals today?

C) Does my trainer have the knack to find a race where the above critera fits?

D) Does my jockey know how to put a horse in the proper place in the pace of the race.

If you get those four, you have a good shot to cash your bet.
The factors that you mention are undoubtedly sound fundamentals. But I would also add a fifth criterion: will the odds on the horse compensate for those times when the unexpected occurs and the horse doesn't win? (It would seem to me that horses qualifying on all four of the standards that you mentioned would be more likely to go off at odds that would not be high enough to do so.)

Gapfire
11-20-2014, 08:59 PM
The factors that you mention are undoubtedly sound fundamentals. But I would also add a fifth criterion: will the odds on the horse compensate for those times when the unexpected occurs and the horse doesn't win? (It would seem to me that horses qualifying on all four of the standards that you mentioned would be more likely to go off at odds that would not be high enough to do so.)


I am a big fan of your work Overlay, but I want to cash now. I believe I can do do that better than anyone else...period

GatetoWire
11-20-2014, 09:11 PM
Both The Complete Handicapper by James Quinn and the Winner Contest Player by Pete Fornatale are good books.

Gapfire
11-20-2014, 09:21 PM
Both The Complete Handicapper by James Quinn and the Winner Contest Player by Pete Fornatale are good books.

Good books, but you aren't going to make money with those.

Robert Goren
11-21-2014, 07:43 AM
Seriously folks. This game come down to:

A) Is my horse fit today?

B) Does my horse have the figures to run with these animals today?

C) Does my trainer have the knack to find a race where the above critera fits?

D) Does my jockey know how to put a horse in the proper place in the pace of the race.

If you get those four, you have a good shot to cash your bet.That horse would be 4/5 tops!

Greyfox
11-21-2014, 10:10 AM
That horse would be 4/5 tops!

That type of horse can be found every day at various tracks at far higher odds than 4/5.

GatetoWire
11-21-2014, 11:03 AM
Good books, but you aren't going to make money with those.

Why not?

Greyfox
11-21-2014, 11:10 AM
Why not?

Probably because a large percentage of the "wise guy bettors" in the crowd have read them.

acorn54
11-21-2014, 02:09 PM
Why not?
my two cents. i have been betting horses since 1978 and take my wisdom (hopefully not fool's wisdom)- this game has people of all types trying to make money off a crowd of bettors who are looking for someone(s) to show them how to make money from the comfort of their home. there are book writers, now with the internet fewer, and there are people who make a name for themselves and tout themselves as experts.
from my experience it is a case of the blind leading the blind off a cliff.
the parimutuel pools used in horse racing to determine the odds, AFTER the 15% minimum tax imposed, is an efficient market, where the price on a horse's head has all the information available to the public factored into its odds.

Robert Goren
11-21-2014, 03:22 PM
my two cents. i have been betting horses since 1978 and take my wisdom (hopefully not fool's wisdom)- this game has people of all types trying to make money off a crowd of bettors who are looking for someone(s) to show them how to make money from the comfort of their home. there are book writers, now with the internet fewer, and there are people who make a name for themselves and tout themselves as experts.
from my experience it is a case of the blind leading the blind off a cliff.
the parimutuel pools used in horse racing to determine the odds, AFTER the 15% minimum tax imposed, is an efficient market, where the price on a horse's head has all the information available to the public factored into its odds.You pretty much hit the nail on the head.

Tom
11-21-2014, 04:10 PM
I don't see why you can't get ideas from books.
I never look at doing anything step by step like an author might discuss it.
But I will get an idea to look into something, or do something a bit differently.
Does anyone have a step by step book on how to be a surgeon? Or do they read trade literature and adapt it to their practice?

Greyfox
11-21-2014, 06:22 PM
Does anyone have a step by step book on how to be a surgeon? Or do they read trade literature and adapt it to their practice?

http://d1w7fb2mkkr3kw.cloudfront.net/assets/images/book/large/9781/9067/9781906714697.jpg

Sinner369
11-21-2014, 06:59 PM
I don't see why you can't get ideas from books.
I never look at doing anything step by step like an author might discuss it.
But I will get an idea to look into something, or do something a bit differently.
Does anyone have a step by step book on how to be a surgeon? Or do they read trade literature and adapt it to their practice?

Tom...............I have to agree......most of us veterans (handicappers) are looking for one factor or one new approach to put us over the top..........to being consistent money making machines..........we might never get there but it's fun trying!!!

Robert Goren
11-22-2014, 01:51 AM
Even today a book can effect a part of your handicapping process. Giles book did that for me. It was a big deal since it is only the fourth racing book that did that out probably over a hundred that I read. A fifth book written a long time ago has sent me chasing an idea from it with my never ending Prime Power research. It is far to early to tell if it will pan out. Giles's book did not start pace handicapping by a long shot, but he came up a unique way classifying a horse's running style. It is a big improvement over anything else I have read. Nothing in the book is much of a stand alone method for pickings winners in my opinion. Using his ideas with your own does make it a bit easier.
There are a lot of beginner handicapping books out there. They all pretty much tout the same ideas but with different emphases. If you were to ask me about any one specific book, I would most likely say it was crap because it is.
Some day somebody with a huge data base is going to write a book that answers question similar to this. What happens when the very likely front runner gets the easy lead and then quits in the stretch? Does the horse chasing 2nd place win? What about the trackers in 3rd or 4th? Does some closer come from no where to win. One of these types wins more often than others, but which one?
or this question What happens when the 1/5 favorite front runner loses all chance coming out the gate? I have got a million questions like this. Like I said some day somebody will write that book and I will tout it every chance I get.

thaskalos
11-22-2014, 03:42 AM
Even today a book can effect a part of your handicapping process. Giles book did that for me. It was a big deal since it is only the fourth racing book that did that out probably over a hundred that I read. A fifth book written a long time ago has sent me chasing an idea from it with my never ending Prime Power research. It is far to early to tell if it will pan out. Giles's book did not start pace handicapping by a long shot, but he came up a unique way classifying a horse's running style. It is a big improvement over anything else I have read. Nothing in the book is much of a stand alone method for pickings winners in my opinion. Using his ideas with your own does make it a bit easier.
There are a lot of beginner handicapping books out there. They all pretty much tout the same ideas but with different emphases. If you were to ask me about any one specific book, I would most likely say it was crap because it is.
Some day somebody with a huge data base is going to write a book that answers question similar to this. What happens when the very likely front runner gets the easy lead and then quits in the stretch? Does the horse chasing 2nd place win? What about the trackers in 3rd or 4th? Does some closer come from no where to win. One of these types wins more often than others, but which one?
or this question What happens when the 1/5 favorite front runner loses all chance coming out the gate? I have got a million questions like this. Like I said some day somebody will write that book and I will tout it every chance I get.
IMO...database research such as the one you are suggesting is the equivalent of a dog chasing its own tail; it is an enterprise destined for failure from the very start. It makes no difference at all if a horse is running in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or last in a given race. The horses find themselves where they are during a race because of the unique "dynamics" which present themselves during that particular race. You can't lump all those 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and last-place runners together...and hope to draw any meaningful conclusions about upcoming races...because the dynamics which will dictate the outcomes of those races are guaranteed to be DIFFERENT.

If the solution was as simple as you make it sound...then it would have been discovered by now. Huge databases already exist.

Robert Goren
11-22-2014, 09:21 AM
IMO...database research such as the one you are suggesting is the equivalent of a dog chasing its own tail; it is an enterprise destined for failure from the very start. It makes no difference at all if a horse is running in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or last in a given race. The horses find themselves where they are during a race because of the unique "dynamics" which present themselves during that particular race. You can't lump all those 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and last-place runners together...and hope to draw any meaningful conclusions about upcoming races...because the dynamics which will dictate the outcomes of those races are guaranteed to be DIFFERENT.

If the solution was as simple as you make it sound...then it would have been discovered by now. Huge databases already exist.I understand that, but still the Chaser has got to win more than the Deep Closer. I call this stuff plan B options. I would like to see the numbers sometime. I always assumed that the Trackers had the edge, but I am not sure. Is this any different than asking whether the rail is dead or not? I don't think it is.