November Survivor Pool Contest

[Redboard]

Use this thread to submit your picks for the November survivor pool contest. The following 13 have entered:

AlanBaze, biggestal99, davew, horses4courses, MrChubby, Quesmark, Redboard, ReplayRandall, Sru, tanner12oz, thaskalos, Tom, TorEkman.

We’ll try using this one thread for the entire contest and see how that works.

Here are the rules:

-You select one horse per day for ten days (spread over the rest of the month of November, which is 13 days, so you’ll need to take three days off)
-You can only select one horse per day(you may select more than one in one post, if you know your selections for the next few days). If you submit more than one for a racing day, I’ll only use the first one.
-If your horse scratches, the pick doesn’t count. If there are more races that day, and you have time, you can enter another pick for that day. If not, you’ll just have to use that day as one of you three “bye” days.
-Any North American thoroughbred track is OK, flat racing only, purse must be $10k or over, and the tracks results must be listed on www.equibase.com.
-Horse must be 10-1 or lower on the morning line
-If your horse wins you are out, period.
-You “survive” if your horse doesn’t win.
-Your score is cumulated by the summation of the odds of your losing horse (either morning line or final odds, whichever is lower.)
-If you picked the ML or betting favorite you get zero points for that race, which is good.
-The winner is the survivor with the lowest points and will be announced on December 1st.

List your picks in this format:

Date:
Track:
Race #:
Horse #:
Horse Name:
Morning Line Odds:

If you could do a copy and paste of this format, that would make it easier for me to read. Thanks for playing!

[Redboard]

Date: 11/18
Track: PRX
Race #: 3
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: Philly Freedom
Morning Line Odds: 8-1

[LAP_520]

Date: 11/18/2014
Track: PARX
Race #: 7
Horse #: 2
Horse Name: THE MORNING GUYS
Morning Line Odds: 6-1

.

[Enigma]

Date:11/18
Track: PRX
Race: #8
Horse:#6
Horse Name: Cat's Holiday
Morning Line Odds: 5/2

[Tom]

Date:11/18
Track: MNR
Race: #7
Horse:#6
Horse Name: Rumble
Morning Line Odds: 4/1

[oneg12]

Turf Paradise
Race 9
#2
Smokin` Cat
2-1

[Redboard]

Turf Paradise
Race 9
#2
Smokin` Cat
2-1

oneg12, the purse on the 8th race(there is no 9th race tonight) at Turf Paradise is only $6.5k. The purse must be at least $10k(see rules). Sorry.

[davew]

Date: 11/19
Track: GPW (CRC)
Race #:3
Horse #:4
Horse Name:Miss Visconti
Morning Line Odds:2/1

[Quesmark]

Date:11/19
Track:Gulfstream Park West
Race #:10
Horse #:1
Horse Name:Stay Determined
Morning Line Odds:4/1

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/19/2014
Track: Delta Downs
Race #: 9
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: Miss Dealbreaker
Morning Line Odds: 8-1

[oneg12]

Date: 11-19
Track: HAW
Race: 4
Horse: 11
Name: It`s A Great Life
ML: 3-1

[Redboard]

Date: 11/19
Track: LRL
Race #: 1
Horse #: 5
Horse Name: Showing
Morning Line Odds: 5-1

[horses4courses]

Date: 11/19
Track: AQU
Race #: 7
Horse #: 5
Horse Name: Freudie Anne
Morning Line Odds: 3-1

[Tor Ekman]

Date: 11/19
Track: AQ
Race #: 2
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Full of Sugar
Morning Line Odds: 5-1

[Mr. Chubby]

Date: 11/19
Track: Aqu
Race #: 5
Horse #: :7:
Horse Name: Saint Finian
Morning Line Odds: 4/1

[ReplayRandall]

Date:11/19
Track:Gulfstream Park West
Race #:10
Horse #:2
Horse Name:Borinqueneer
Morning Line Odds:3/1-Favorite

[Enigma]

Date: 11/19
Track: HAW
Race: #2
Horse:#4
Horse Name: Smoke Daddy
Morning Line Odds: 5/2

[LAP_520]

Date: 11/19/2014
Track: AQU
Race #: 9
Horse #: 2
Horse Name: HIGH NOON RIDER
Morning Line Odds: 4-1

[Tom]

Date:11/19
Track: GPW
Race: #8
Horse:#6
Horse Name: Kitten in May
Morning Line Odds: 3/1

[LAP_520]

Date: 11/19/2014
Track: AQU
Race #: 9
Horse #: 2
Horse Name: HIGH NOON RIDER
Morning Line Odds: 4-1



My picks have been losing all day.... and this one has to win..... :bang:

[Redboard]

Date:11/19
Track: GPW
Race: #8
Horse:#6
Horse Name: Kitten in May
Morning Line Odds: 3/1

Tom,

I believe this horse has scratched. The mountain, I believe, will run em tonight though, if you want to try another.

[Redboard]

Date: 11/19
Track: HAW
Race: #2
Horse:#4
Horse Name: Smoke Daddy
Morning Line Odds: 5/2

Sorry Enigma, another purse too low $8k. Must be at least $10k
:(

[Tom]

Two down and none in the books.
Track cancelled and a scratch.
I'll never make it to the end.

[Tom]

Date:11/19
Track: RP
Race: 7
Horse:#4
Horse Name: Ranahan Oakie
Morning Line Odds: 3/1

[davew]

Date: 11/20
Track: FL
Race #: 7
Horse #: 4
Horse Name: Ideal Place
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 fav

[thaskalos]

Date: 11/20
Track: Pen
Race #: 8
Horse #: 7
Horse Name: Swing Fa the Stars
Morning Line Odds: 3-1

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/20/2014
Track: Aqueduct
Race #:8
Horse #: 6
Horse Name: Canal Six
Morning Line Odds: 7-2

[oneg12]

11-20
Track: Haw
Race: 7
Horse #: 3
Name: Friendly`s Rap
ML: 7-2

[Tor Ekman]

Date: 11/20
Track: AQ
Race #: 1
Horse #: :1:
Horse Name: Hollywood Idol
Morning Line Odds: 4-1

[Quesmark]

Date:11/20
Track:Gulfstream Park West
Race #:1
Horse #:9
Horse Name:Royal Spaces
Morning Line Odds:3/1

[Redboard]

Date: 11/20
Track: AQU
Race #: 3
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Pura Vida Zen
Morning Line Odds: 5-2 (favorite)

[Mr. Chubby]

Date: 11/20
Track: AQU
Race #: 9
Horse #: :1a:
Horse Name: Zabaione
Morning Line Odds: 2/1

[Enigma]

Date: 11/20
Track: Del Mar
Race: #3
Horse: #2
Horse Name: Looking For Money
Morning Line Odds:3/1

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/21/2014
Track: Fairgrounds
Race #: 9
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Easy From The Gate
Morning Line Odds: 6-1

[davew]

Date: 11/21
Track: CD
Race #: 5
Horse #: 2
Horse Name: Victory Colors
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 ML fav

[Mr. Chubby]

Date: 11/21
Track: Aqu
Race #: 7
Horse #: :7:
Horse Name: Masons Dream
Morning Line Odds: 2/1 favorite

[ReplayRandall]

Date: 11/21
Track: Del Mar
Race #: 7
Horse #: 9
Horse Name: Stars Above Me
Morning Line Odds: 3/1- M/L-Favorite

[Enigma]

Date:11/21
Track: Del Mar
Race: #3
Horse:#3
Horse Name: Luckbox Sam
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 Favorite.

[Tor Ekman]

Date: 11/21
Track: AQ
Race #: 5
Horse #: :4:
Horse Name: Brass Pear
Morning Line Odds: 3-1

[Tor Ekman]

Date: 11/21
Track: AQ
Race #: 5
Horse #: :4:
Horse Name: Brass Pear
Morning Line Odds: 3-1

I'm out.

[Quesmark]

Date:11/21
Track:Churchill Downs
Race #:8
Horse #:5
Horse Name:Call To Action
Morning Line Odds:5/1

[Tom]

Date:11/21
Track:Ded
Race #:10
Horse #:6
Horse Name:Roy's Fast Ford
Morning Line Odds:2/1

[Redboard]

Date:11/21
Track:Ded
Race #:10
Horse #:6
Horse Name:Roy's Fast Ford
Morning Line Odds:2/1

Down to 3/5 at 10 minutes to post.
:eek:

Already two more casualties today.

[Quesmark]

Date:11/22 [Saturday 1 of 2]
Track:Aqueduct
Race #:5
Horse #:6
Horse Name:Sunny Desert
Morning Line Odds:3/1

Date:11/22[Saturday 2 of 2]
Track:Aqueduct
Race #:6
Horse #:8
Horse Name:Honor Code
Morning Line Odds:7/5

[Tom]

Down to 3/5 at 10 minutes to post.
:eek:

Already two more casualties today.
At that time of the night, I was, uh limited on plays! :D

[Redboard]

At that time of the night, I was, uh limited on plays! :D

Nice pick. Roy's never had a chance.
:ThmbUp:

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/22/2014
Track: Aqueduct
Race #: 8
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: West Hills Giant
Morning Line Odds: 8-5

[davew]

Date: 11/22
Track: LRL
Race #: 3
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Our RJ
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 ML fav

[Enigma]

Date: 11/22
Track: Laurel
Race: #4
Horse: #2
Horse Name: Northern Champ
Morning Line Odds 3/1 Favorite

[ReplayRandall]

Date: 11/22
Track: Delta Downs
Race #: 5
Horse #: 6
Horse Name: Yahilwa
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 ML fav

[Tom]

This just came up - three times!

What if there is an entry?
Say I pick 1 to lose and 1A wins?

I'll stay off entries for now.

[Tom]

Date: 11/22
Track: Penn National
Race #: 8
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: Mia's Mystic
Morning Line Odds: 6-1

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/23/2014
Track: Aqueduct
Race #: 1
Horse #: 2
Horse Name: Pisgah Pike
Morning Line Odds: 7-2

[davew]

Date: 11/23
Track: CD
Race #: 11
Horse #: 8
Horse Name: Sharp Harbour
Morning Line Odds: 7/2 ML fav

[Enigma]

11/23
Track: Del Mar
Race: #3
Horse: #8
Horse Name: Litigation Road
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 Favorite

[Tom]

Date: 11/23
Track: FG
Race #: 9
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Independant Girl
Morning Line Odds: 4/1

[Tom]

Date: 11/24
Track: FL
Race #: 9
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: The Black Cloud
Morning Line Odds: 6/1

[Tom]

I originally listed this as Race 7, but it should be 9.
The 3 in R7 was 12-1, so not eligible.
Your call.....

[Redboard]

I originally listed this as Race 7, but it should be 9.
The 3 in R7 was 12-1, so not eligible.
Your call.....

Everything looks OK to me, the horses name overrides everything else. Not a problem. Your score will have 6 more when the days results come out.

You weren't the only one who didn't like The Black Cloud, his odds ballooned up to almost 20-1.

[Enigma]

Date: 11/25
Track: Parx
Race: #6
Horse: #7
Horse Name: England
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 Favorite

[davew]

Date: 11/26
Track: FL
Race #: 6
Horse #: 8
Horse Name: Uncommon Grounds
Morning Line Odds: 7/2 ML fav

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/26/2014
Track: Zia Park
Race #: 9
Horse #: 8
Horse Name: Lady Contender
Morning Line Odds: 5-1

[Enigma]

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.

[Tom]

Date: 11/26
Track: Haw
Race #: 8
Horse #: 9
Horse Name: Gentlemen's Code
Morning Line Odds: 7/2

[Tom]

Buh-bye!

[biggestal99]

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.

I think everyone knows that the zero score needs tweaked. It is the first contest like this so you always need tweaking of the rules. Zero has to fixed.

Allan

[ReplayRandall]

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.


Got to give Davew credit, he thought of it from the get-go.........

[davew]

Date: 11/27
Track: GPW (CRC)
Race #: 9
Horse #: 7
Horse Name: Street Icon
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 ML fav

[Redboard]

Don’t let the trash-talking get to you Dave. You’re having an incredible run. Keep doing what you’re doing. To say that bad ML favs don’t win is not true - I’ve been beaten many, many, many times by them. :mad:

Looking forward to the stretch run here and an exciting finish.

Get your popcorn ready. :p

[davew]

Yes, i realize bad ML always have a chance of winning (and just because I think they are bad might mean I am wrong). I am not focusing on bad tracks with big fields, but races where I feel there are 3-4 just as good or better horses bringing the ML fav down below 20% probability of winning (by my estimate).

[ReplayRandall]

Yes, i realize bad ML always have a chance of winning (and just because I think they are bad might mean I am wrong). I am not focusing on bad tracks with big fields, but races where I feel there are 3-4 just as good or better horses bringing the ML fav down below 20% probability of winning (by my estimate).

Dave, if you can identify 10 M/L false favorites in a row, you belong among the top 2% in the game........very difficult to do, and I'm rooting for you as I admire great handicapping feats of this nature.....:ThmbUp:

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/27/2014
Track: Del Mar
Race #: 7
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Finnegans Wake
Morning Line Odds: 9-2

[Enigma]

Please let me explain, my comments were not trash talking or aimed at davew it was meant to pin point the weakness of the contest which is why there was a low number of contestants. The rules are not tight enough to make it a real contest. I would have finished in 2nd place....big deal.
I believe davew will agree with my comments. To make it a true handicapping test anyone who picks a M/L favorite and the horse does not go off as favorite it is a no selection. To make it true test of handicapping to score zero if you should pick a favorite it should go off as favorite to score zero.

[davew]

Date: 11/28
Track: CD
Race #: 1
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: Sugar Pie
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 ML fav

[Enigma]

11/29.
Track: Fairgrounds.
Race: #8
Horse: #5
Horse Name: Sweet Baby Gaines
Morning Line Odds:9/2 Favorite

Track: Fairgrounds.
Race: #10
Horse: #10
Horse Name: Porto Pottee
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 Favorite

[davew]

Date: 11/29
Track: TUP
Race #: 3
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Memo to Reese
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 ML fav

[davew]

Date: 11/30
Track: GPW
Race #: 5
Horse #: 5
Horse Name: Skyblueandblack
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 ML fav

[ReplayRandall]

Date: 11/30
Track: GPW
Race #: 5
Horse #: 5
Horse Name: Skyblueandblack
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 ML fav

Dave, if you can identify 10 M/L false favorites in a row, you belong among the top 2% in the game........very difficult to do, and I'm rooting for you as I admire great handicapping feats of this nature.....:ThmbUp:


Big tip of the cap to you DAVE!! 10 for 10 is of the highest caliber of handicapping.......looking forward to playing against you and others in future contests.

[davew]

Big tip of the cap to you DAVE!! 10 for 10 is of the highest caliber of handicapping.......looking forward to playing against you and others in future contests.

thx, but it could have just been luck or variance.

by my calculations, if favorites lose 2/3rds of the time - getting 10 losers in a row would happen roughly 2% of the time anyway