Why I Won't Be Betting On American Pharoah To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

[Bob S.]

Because he won't get the distance.

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/why-i-wont-be-betting-on-american-pharoah-to-win-the-2015-kentucky-derby/

[OTM Al]

Because he won't get the distance.

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/why-i-wont-be-betting-on-american-pharoah-to-win-the-2015-kentucky-derby/

That and a fair chance he doesn't make the starting gate

[horses4courses]

He doesn't run like a sprinter, he runs like a strong 2yo miler.
Not many thought that Bayern, or Bodemeister,
would stick around for 10 furlongs.

I won't be betting the horse for the Derby, either.
For different reasons than in the article, though.
Namely - lack of betting value.

[jballscalls]

I always say really good two year olds are often like the kids who hit puberty before everyone else and dominate the little league world series. Many of them get caught up to.

[OTM Al]

I always say really good two year olds are often like the kids who hit puberty before everyone else and dominate the little league world series. Many of them get caught up to.

That and it's asking a lot for one that has already had an injury, no matter how minor, to come back strong. Think the distance would not have been a problem had he not already gotten hurt.

[Some_One]

This is what I posted back in May ahead of the Derby in terms on a quick look at past Bris Derby PP's.

"Thanks to Brisnet to putting up PP's all the way back to 2000, I was looking at the pedigrees of the winners, it's interesting to note that of the last 14 winners, only once did the Sire AWD was longer than the Dam AWD (Barbaro). The average difference of the other 13 was +.73 (Animal Kingdom's +3.5 does bring the average up, there were 6 winners with differences of only +.1-+.3).

So bringing this back to this year, Samraat (-.2), Tapiture (-0.9), Candy Boy (-0.7) and Ride on Curlin (-0.4) are well regarded horses running against this."

[Sugar Dust]

I want to see more races out of a colt before making any decision on the Derby. Betting the early book is like picking #'s in a lottery. As far as breeding, nature runs a lottery and horses out run their pedigree everyday. I like known performers. I tend to go more for running styles than anything, horses that just lay off the pace are my favorite. They seem to get in less trouble, after all a lot of the ky derbies are closer to a rodeo than a horse race. jmo

[biggestal99]

When and if jersey gets exchange wagering, i will be laying AP, just not convinced he'sa derby horse.

Allan

[ArlJim78]

I have no derby opinion on this horse at this time, but isn't November a little early for final derby declarations? Is there nothing the horse could do between now and the derby to sway your mind? From my perspective what I see them do in the flesh on the track trumps anything that breeding analysis might indicate. That's not to say that I don't look at breeding for the derby, just that it's not primary.

[letswastemoney]

His grandsire is a Belmont Stakes winner.

On the dam side, there isn't enough evidence since his dam failed to break her maiden, and second dam was a claimer, and I don't think their form should be taken seriously when evaluating a top horse like this.

Way too early to declare him not eligible for a 10 furlong win.

[BettinBilly]

He doesn't run like a sprinter, he runs like a strong 2yo miler.
Not many thought that Bayern, or Bodemeister,
would stick around for 10 furlongs.

I won't be betting the horse for the Derby, either.
For different reasons than in the article, though.
Namely - lack of betting value.

Took the words right out of my mouth. Doubt there will be any value there, IF he even makes the gate. We'll see.

[Bob S.]

This is what I posted back in May ahead of the Derby in terms on a quick look at past Bris Derby PP's.

Sire: Pioneerof the Nile 7.1 AWD
Dam Sire: Yankee Gentleman 6.31 AWD

[Bob S.]

I have no derby opinion on this horse at this time, but isn't November a little early for final derby declarations? Is there nothing the horse could do between now and the derby to sway your mind? From my perspective what I see them do in the flesh on the track trumps anything that breeding analysis might indicate. That's not to say that I don't look at breeding for the derby, just that it's not primary.

For a 3 year old horse going a mile and a quarter for the first time breeding is of primary concern IMO.

[horses4courses]

AP may not win the KY Derby.
His work at SA today, will have some salivating.
Looks like he is ready to prep soon.
Stay tuned.

[Cratos]

Because he won't get the distance.

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/why-i-wont-be-betting-on-american-pharoah-to-win-the-2015-kentucky-derby/
Bob,
Thus far do you see any resemblance between Baffert's handling of American Pharoah and Dortmund; and his handling of Point Given and Congaree as 3yos?

[MJC922]

Take nothing away from AP he's been brilliant, Calculator is impressive to me in his own right. No derby-type stamina in Calculator's pedigree as far as I know, I'd rather let the pedigree experts tell me that though. Definitely a horse I'll be following through his career even if he only turns out to be more of a sprinter, looks like a talented runner. Maybe the next Lit de Justice?

[letswastemoney]

My only worry is whether American Pharoah only fires on the lead. He should be okay for the distance.

[sandpit]

Calculator is off the Derby trail:

http://www.petermillerracing.com/articles/injury-knocks-calculator-off-derby-trail.html

[Robert Fischer]

I'll have to see how he does in some prep races, but from what I've seen so far, the distance is fine.

With Baffert, the pedigree is less important. It's more about whether his star horses are healthy and peaking at the right time.

[MJC922]

Calculator is off the Derby trail:

http://www.petermillerracing.com/articles/injury-knocks-calculator-off-derby-trail.html

Thanks for letting me know. Here's to a swift recovery. It did look like he took a bit of a stutter-step to jump the tracks in the Sham, it would be a shame if that had anything to do with the beginnings of it. Does the gate crew still use bow rakes to tidy that stuff up? Still seems to catch the eyes of a lot of perceptive young horses.

[Bob S.]

This horse may need the lead. This would be a problem with his shaky pedigree.

[Secondbest]

I just read this on Bloodhorse
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90165/baffert-impressed-by-american-pharoah-work