Liam's Map

[cutchemist42]

This horse ever discussed before? 3yo 800,000 horse who only just debuted in Sar this Summer, big maiden win and just had a dominant n1x win.

[DeltaLover]

This horse ever discussed before? 3yo 800,000 horse who only just debuted in Sar this Summer, big maiden win and just had a dominant n1x win.

MONSTER

[letswastemoney]

Miss Macy Sue is going to be one of those dams that produces nothing but winners.

Little sister Taylor S hasn't shown it yet, but I think she has a nice future as well.

[nijinski]

Dam and broodmare sire Trippi better in sprints . Be interesting to see
how far Liams Map goes .

[RXB]

He can definitely run some, although an uncontested lead on a speed-favouring track as per yesterday's race has made many horses seem better than they really are.

His three races so far have been 7f-8f and based on his pedigree & running style that's probably the best range for him.

[EMD4ME]

He can definitely run some, although an uncontested lead on a speed-favouring track as per yesterday's race has made many horses seem better than they really are.

His three races so far have been 7f-8f and based on his pedigree & running style that's probably the best range for him.

Monster visually. In my opinion the only horse to beat him, Three Alarm Fire, is a beast. He lost 2 weeks ago on a sloppy track and partly due to a poor start. TAF will be a graded winning machine. So, Liam's Map could be really good.

It was the only dirt route at Aqu Sunday (nothing to match up against it) and the 4 non pig races (1 was race was for donkeys and pigs lol) were won wire to wire, so there is cause to hesitate a bit....

He was given a 100B. Think it's legit.

We'll see.

[Valuist]

Miss Macy Sue is going to be one of those dams that produces nothing but winners.

Little sister Taylor S hasn't shown it yet, but I think she has a nice future as well.

Wasn't Miss Macy Sue strictly a sprinter?

[letswastemoney]

Wasn't Miss Macy Sue strictly a sprinter?Yes. I tried to look for some route efforts from her.

The only one I could find was a race where Miss Macy Sue set an extremely fast pace for one mile and opened up by 15 lengths, then faded sharply.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=PRM&dt=06/09/2006&ctry=USA&race=9

I don't think a dam's preferred distance always indicates if her foals can get the distance. It depends on the sire too.

Dream Rush was one of the speediest sprinters of recent times. Her daughter Dreaming of Julia, sired by A.P. Indy, won two different route races, one of them the nine furlong Gulfstream Oaks.

Although the potential for Liam's Map to stretch out doesn't look as strong with Unbridled's Song as the sire, he deserves a chance to go longer than one mile. I'll be curious to see what happens. Sometimes horses overcome their pedigree.

[cj]

Horse is tough to gauge right now, but one thing I've learned is that he will NEVER offer value at the window. Depending on where he shows up next, might be worth betting against off that slow pace (and possibly biased track) win.

[Robert Fischer]

Dam and broodmare sire Trippi better in sprints . Be interesting to see
how far Liams Map goes .

hmmm...

I wonder if we will see Liam's Map take on Honor Code in the Donn Handicap (2/7/2015 @ Gulfstream Park)?

[nijinski]

hmmm...

I wonder if we will see Liam's Map take on Honor Code in the Donn Handicap (2/7/2015 @ Gulfstream Park)?

Would be interesting . Lea is back on the work tab too .

[letswastemoney]

Liams Map is running tomorrow in an 8.5 furlong race at Gulfstream.

What do you guys think?

*I think it may be too far, or the limit for him at least.

[zico20]

hmmm...

I wonder if we will see Liam's Map take on Honor Code in the Donn Handicap (2/7/2015 @ Gulfstream Park)?

Seriously doubt it. Pletcher would have 3 horses in there. Constitution and Danza are already pointed there.

[zico20]

Liams Map is running tomorrow in an 8.5 furlong race at Gulfstream.

What do you guys think?

*I think it may be too far, or the limit for him at least.

It looks like a 4 horse race. Pants on Fire, Schivarelli, Valid, and Liam's Map. The others look over matched. And what is up with putting a filly who hasn't raced since April. They should scratch her and find an easier spot.

I like Pants on Fire to win. My play as of now would be:

:4: with :6: :7: with :6: :7: with :8: and then
:8: with :4: with :6: :7: with :6: :7:

[Stillriledup]

Good luck trying to get that 7-2 ML they're quoting. :bang:

[cutchemist42]

Good luck trying to get that 7-2 ML they're quoting. :bang:

Damn, has turned into a huge fave. At that price, I'd play against if I was playing this race.

[Stillriledup]

Damn, has turned into a huge fave. At that price, I'd play against if I was playing this race.

Im against him. Didn't love his "professionalism" last time. He ran off with the jock a bit, can't do that in a 2 turn race,esp at those odds.

[letswastemoney]

Miss Macy Sue and Taylor S both have run off and faded in the three route efforts between them.

I wouldn't completely discount Liam's Map, but considering the family history 1/2 seems way too low.

[Robert Fischer]

opens @ 2-5

whales want to discourage betting on LM
(and it's working with me)

i'm thinking he'll actually pay between 3.60-$4 for the win.

Field has some lively contenders, and post 7 can be tricky here, (assuming the other jocks ride this like LM is 2-5 and make him wide into turn-1).

Go Liam's Map!

[Robert Fischer]

was a little bit 'wild' in his previous win vs. Street Gent and co.

he crushed them, but it was on his tremendous talent edge.

I think that is a slight negative sign when taking a short price in a solid field. Will be interesting to see how professional he is today.

[cutchemist42]

It is a bad PP for him.

[cutchemist42]

Damn, I actually liked the fight he showed. I like him.

[letswastemoney]

Impressive win for Liam's Map.

Valid had dead aim and couldn't get by.

[Robert Fischer]

Donn Handicap vs. Honor Code and others next?

[cj]

I'll be very against him once he leaves Gulfstream, as I am most Pletcher runners. I refuse to bet against him while at GP.

[ArlJim78]

a gutty way to win. usually a horse collared from behind like that will succumb, especially after having run solid fractions.

[Stillriledup]

Impressive win for Liam's Map.

Valid had dead aim and couldn't get by.

didnt see head on, seemed like there was bumping?

Game win, you dont know if these types are going to show that kind of fight. I didnt love his chances on the far turn after being used hard with an experienced horse like the 7 coming at him, but he passed that test. Reminds me a bit of that crossed traffic (or something like that).

[tanner12oz]

Looked awesome...some serious grit

[Cholly]

didnt see head on, seemed like there was bumping?

Game win, you dont know if these types are going to show that kind of fight. I didnt love his chances on the far turn after being used hard with an experienced horse like the 7 coming at him, but he passed that test. Reminds me a bit of that crossed traffic (or something like that).
That was a very head's-up ride by Bocachica. As soon as Csaba started fading, he put Valid right up along St. Liam to make sure that one didn't get comfortable. Bocachica tried to pin St. Liam to the rail, and had Valid bump him a couple of times...probably hoped the lightly raced one might fade in a fight. Didn't work out for the win, but Bocachica played it perfectly.

[cj]

That was a very head's-up ride by Bocachica. As soon as Csaba started fading, he put Valid right up along St. Liam to make sure that one didn't get comfortable. Bocachica tried to pin St. Liam to the rail, and had Valid bump him a couple of times...probably hoped the lightly raced one might fade in a fight. Didn't work out for the win, but Bocachica played it perfectly.

Valid didn't change leads, could have made a difference.

[Secondbest]

LM looked beat but toughed it out and was drawing away at the end.This might be one tough cookie

[lamboguy]

i bet on VALID to the race and can't believe he got beat. Pletcher is tough everywhere, double tough in Florida.

[MJC922]

i bet on VALID to the race and can't believe he got beat. Pletcher is tough everywhere, double tough in Florida.

This is a tough beat, but a very deserving winner.

[Valuist]

7-2 on the morning line...really? I understand there's some races loaded with firsters that are very tough to make a ml on. This wasn't one of them. Any line over even $$ on Liam's Map yesterday was a joke.

[lamboguy]

I'll be very against him once he leaves Gulfstream, as I am most Pletcher runners. I refuse to bet against him while at GP.you are smart, i am stupid, i loved VALID yesterday

[classhandicapper]

you are smart, i am stupid, i loved VALID yesterday

That was kind of a tough beat. It was very predictable that Liam's Map had a gear that he hadn't shown yet (I discussed that on anther thread). But it took 2 1/2 gears to beat Valid who also ran quite well.

The Donn could be a very interesting race.

[cutchemist42]

Here's the Brisnet figure; 108.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=207

[Stillriledup]

In the 6th at Belmont June 19th

[classhandicapper]

Wow, that's a pretty strong ALW race. Reminds me of the old days.

[Robert Fischer]

No bet for me @ short odds in a short field.

I'm of the opinion that a healthy effort wins here.

Go Liam's Map.

[Robert Fischer]

He looks like he's building up to a big bet-against.

Very head-strong, and stiff. It's going to catch up to him when he faces closer matched rivals. The public is all over Liam's Map.

[cutchemist42]

Missed the notification for my own thread and randomly just thought of Liam's Map and equibase'd him today.

[cutchemist42]

Whitney next for Liams Map.

[cutchemist42]

So Classic next?

[EMD4ME]

So Classic next?

Better be, I hope he makes it there healthy. I can't WAIT till he hits the lead, sets solid fractions, puts AP away and we can all see how over rated AP is.

Not saying Liam's Map will win but he is the entire KEY to getting AP beat.

[sammy the sage]

He's going in the mile...little birdie told me... ;)

makes sense...that extra 1/4...not in his wheelhouse...he is a bleeder by the way...so every race...somewhat of a gamble as to what he'll do...

[Tom]

He's going in the mile...little birdie told me... ;)

makes sense...that extra 1/4...not in his wheelhouse...he is a bleeder by the way...so every race...somewhat of a gamble as to what he'll do...

He made me bleed in the Whitney. :(

[Fager Fan]

He's going in the mile...little birdie told me... ;)

makes sense...that extra 1/4...not in his wheelhouse...he is a bleeder by the way...so every race...somewhat of a gamble as to what he'll do...

Apparently it's manageable with Lasix so I wouldn't let that stop me from betting on him. The real bleeders are those who bleed through.

[letswastemoney]

I wouldn't consider Liam's Map a 10 furlong horse. He will fit in the Dirt Mile much better.

As a Pletcher horse, he could also mysteriously lose form for no clear reason.

[cj]

I wouldn't consider Liam's Map a 10 furlong horse. He will fit in the Dirt Mile much better.

As a Pletcher horse, he could also mysteriously lose form for no clear reason.

But nobody cares about the Dirt Mile, do they? It is a second tier Breeder's Cup race. I'd consider the Woodward a more prestigious race than the Dirt Mile. He'd also have problems making the front in the dirt mile most likely.

[Fager Fan]

But nobody cares about the Dirt Mile, do they? It is a second tier Breeder's Cup race. I'd consider the Woodward a more prestigious race than the Dirt Mile. He'd also have problems making the front in the dirt mile most likely.

I agree. I think he gets more cred if he dispatches AP and then hangs on for a good loss than he gets for winning the dirt mile.

[Tom]

The Dirt Mile isn't even a dirt mile every year.
How can it have any prestige when it can't even run what it is named? :lol:

[classhandicapper]

A win in the Classic would obviously be massively more prestigious and financially rewarding than a win in the Mile. But if you assume there will be Grade 1 pressure in the Classic, his Whitney makes him suspect to be able to beat off the the likes of AP, Beholder, etc.. and then still hold off the cavalry charge going 10F unless the track is playing to speed. He's going so well right now he may take the other speeds out with him, but imo the correct economic choice is at least debatable.

[Stillriledup]

But nobody cares about the Dirt Mile, do they? It is a second tier Breeder's Cup race. I'd consider the Woodward a more prestigious race than the Dirt Mile. He'd also have problems making the front in the dirt mile most likely.

Exactly, and the genius Navarro horse might be in the mile, APs not getting the lead from him.

[thespaah]

The Dirt Mile isn't even a dirt mile every year.
How can it have any prestige when it can't even run what it is named? :lol:
This is one of the reasons why I think the Breeders Cup should not be run at tracks that cannot accommodate a either a two turn or one turn mile...

[thespaah]

IMO Liam's Map had things his own way in the Woodward.
In no way does this transfer to a successful day vs the best of the older horse division at 10 furlongs.....
In fact, I hope Liam's Map is in the Classic field. He will draw money away from other horses offering better value on those.

[MJC922]

Seems to me Liam's Map will be destined to always have his own way. He's one of those horses you never really beat, rather you let him go (if you know what's good for you) and then hope he beats himself. This is not a 'pop and stop' horse, he sets an above average pace for a prolonged period, just because he takes hold of the bit and likes to air it out. The game for him is to stay a few in front, widen, bottom out the field and gradually weaken, similar to a Skip Away type but I think less handy and still green. IMO a shadow roll might be a good addition here but it's hard to argue with success.

[Tom]

I don't see him having his own way all the time - he has won 2 of three on the lead and 2 of 3 pressing the pace.

[MJC922]

I don't see him having his own way all the time - he has won 2 of three on the lead and 2 of 3 pressing the pace.

Yeah I've seen it too at shorter distances but at longer distances I can't see anybody that will be foolish enough to go with him. In the Harlan's Holiday I saw enough to know he can get hooked and not cave in. I personally have no recollection in 30 years of race-watching of a horse 4/5w on the first turn of a dirt route, getting hooked that hard on the far turn and not throwing in the towel. Don't get me wrong I do like Tonalist for the price in the Classic but this horse has me scared.

[ILovetheInner]

I can't see anyone loving racing and not being keen on this horse. Hard to keep on the track, but he loves this game, is very fast, and has a gameness you need to be blind not to recognize. I know back when AP won the Haskell and there was some pointless debate about if he would have won the Whitney, the concept that *anyone* just blows by Liam's Map seemed preposterous to me. He has a lot of ability and will give everything he has. Pretty sure we won't get the privilege of seeing him for long. I have been enjoying him, every step. I've loved Honor Code from the first, but down the lane wanted this colt to win the Whitney. He had earned it, against more experienced runners. Impossible not to like.

[Speed Figure]

Hoping he runs in the BCC!

[ronsmac]

It looks like Liam's Map is running in the dirt mile. Am I the only one surprised by this decision? 5 million dollar race vs a 1 million dollar race , I thought he was a slam dunk to run in the classic.

[Robert Fischer]

It looks like Liam's Map is running in the dirt mile. Am I the only one surprised by this decision? 5 million dollar race vs a 1 million dollar race , I thought he was a slam dunk to run in the classic.
I'm surprised.

A little bit disappointing from a betting standpoint, as I think he added to the Classic on several fronts.

If I was managing the horse based on my opinions in a cold, calculated manner, the mile would be a no-brainer.
However, it's still possible that this could be a negative sign. - I wouldn't have been shocked before now to find out that Pletcher and the connections felt more confident about LM's chances in the Classic than I did.

[Redboard]

I am shocked. This is a major scratch. I just dont get it. The BCC, at this point, has zero speed. It's very possible to win it gate to wire.....see Ghostzapper, Bayern. LM had a huge shot. If he were a gelding, maybe it would make $$$$ sense. But the breeding payoff between wining the mile and bcc is astronomical! This is like kissing your sister.

[classhandicapper]

I think the issue is the 10F.

There's almost no way he was going to get away with soft trip in the Classic with American Pharoah and Beholder in the race. One or both was going to take a serious pot shot at him. He ran a huge race in the Whitney, but if that race was 10F he was going to stop. Was he going to get 10F after having to deal with AP and having all that quality behind him? So the question becomes would you rather have a smaller chance at a huge purse or huge chance at a smaller purse?

I doubt it was an easy call unless they can tell he's not a 10F horse at this stage, but it's hard to argue this is a bad move. He could have finished off the board in the Classic if 10F was outside he range or it got really hot.

[horses4courses]

The two contenders it adversely affects the most, imo,
are Tonalist and Honor Code. Especially the latter.
They could really have used a strong pace.

[SuperPickle]

The two contenders it adversely affects the most, imo,
are Tonalist and Honor Code. Especially the latter.
They could really have used a strong pace.

Tonsil's Classic chances revolve entirely around an off track. On a fast track he's kind of on the outside looking in. But when you consider how much it rains in Kentucky in the fall and that the first three days of the meet were off tracks rain is probably about a 4-1, 3-1 shot.

He probably moves up more than anyone in the field if the track is off.

Also Tonalist shows a LOT more speed on a sloppy track so if it rains pace should not be an issue for him.

[menifee]

I think the issue is the 10F.

There's almost no way he was going to get away with soft trip in the Classic with American Pharoah and Beholder in the race. One or both was going to take a serious pot shot at him. He ran a huge race in the Whitney, but if that race was 10F he was going to stop. Was he going to get 10F after having to deal with AP and having all that quality behind him? So the question becomes would you rather have a smaller chance at a huge purse or huge chance at a smaller purse?

I doubt it was an easy call unless they can tell he's not a 10F horse at this stage, but it's hard to argue this is a bad move. He could have finished off the board in the Classic if 10F was outside he range or it got really hot.

You are right - there was no way this horse was getting 10f. 9f is very different from 10f. Even if he got a slow pace, I'm not sure he hits the board.

[NorCalGreg]

Tonsil's Classic chances revolve entirely around an off track. On a fast track he's kind of on the outside looking in. But when you consider how much it rains in Kentucky in the fall and that the first three days of the meet were off tracks rain is probably about a 4-1, 3-1 shot.

He probably moves up more than anyone in the field if the track is off.

Also Tonalist shows a LOT more speed on a sloppy track so if it rains pace should not be an issue for him.

I'm far too mature to make a childish joke about that typo--so carry on.

[iceknight]

The two contenders it adversely affects the most, imo,
are Tonalist and Honor Code. Especially the latter.
They could really have used a strong pace.No, it doesn't affect any real contender's chances. Run a real race like Skipaway or Ghostzapper, or even like Game on Dude, Bertrando who led almost till the end and didn't collapse to last.... I'm so tired of excuse horses looking for a pace collapse due to some random duel. honor code can find his way still. If anyone else wants to win they better have their horse stalking up close by breaking properly, and that means breaking straight-not like last years chaos. Can't a fan get a perfect race around here once a year :lol:

[cutchemist42]

I wanted the Classic.