Poindexter
11-15-2014, 09:26 AM
Pretty much the same horses running this week as last week, so if interested you can check last week’s write up for more information on the horses running tonight. (sort of did a cliff notes version for tonight). Good luck tonight, this is another tough one.
Before getting started-I want to discuss 1 race from last week. That was the 12th (nw 2000 l5) race won by Holy Chip. It is important because it earned a very good figure(went 2 length faster than the n8000 l5 race won by Lennox Blue Chip with very similar fractions). The reason it is of significance is that there was a first ¼ duel(as B Carpenter driving a zillion-1 shot Pansaflying decided to fly out from the rail and in doing so really took a lot out of Washington Hanover who eventually cleared the ¼ in 27 flat after going 4/3 wide around the first turn. What ended up happening is Holy Chip who had tucked the 5 hole came 1st over and wore down a dead tired Washington Hanover-Panaflying was gapping from the 2 hole and basically the race went 1st over 1st, 2nd over 2nd, 3rd over 3rd, 4th over 4th and 5th over 5th as the inner flow stopped. Now obviously the winner Holy Chip raced well, coming the last ½ in 55.1 1st over, but that was even aided by the fact he had a dead tired leader inside of him. The point is that we have a bunch of horses in that race that earned very nice figures, but only did exactly what they were supposed to do. I am not sold any of them raced as well as the figure would indicate. We also have another horse name Special Joe who was part of the early speed duel took a seat, got shuffled badly and cleared late. I bring this up because all but one of these horses are racing tonight and as handicappers you have to decide whether or not to use them.
10th) 1-2-3-5-8(strong top choice 1)
1-Kingofthejungle-Has been facing the top class horses in most of his races. Raced in conditioned races at Balmoral twice earlier in the year and ran well, but not so well that I would trust singling him. Does make a very solid top choice however.
2-Old Man River-continues to race well rail riding and motoring home. Solid efforts last 2. I think he will have a tougher trip in this spot however.
3-Kansas Wildcat-Has been off a month, but switches to a very high percentage barn and seems a fit on class and has good early speed.
5-Extravagant Art-Shot out to the lead last time(which is not something he usually can do) but that was because nobody left but him and Wildcat Bobby from the inside(who retook). In here has Kansas Wildcat inside of him and Major Monet outside of him, so whether he can leave and sit his ideal pocket trip remains to be seen(I would guess not). Very sharp right now(last half in 54.1 last race) however, so I will use him.
8) Major Monet, was used pretty good last out. Left hard in 27.2, then had to retake and then got pushed hard by a very impressive 1st over winner Lennox Blue Chip. That being said, I do not think he is on top of his game and still must deal with the 8 post. Have to use him however.
11th) 3-6-7-9-10
This race is tricky. On class it appears that #6 Major Bombay is a complete standout. However he has not raced in over a year so it is just a complete guess what we will see tonight. What makes it worse is you have no glimpse of the straight betting pools(since the pick 4 starts the race before) to see how live he is. Obviously has to be used. The 2 best known horses are drawn in the 9 and 10 hole. Holy Chip, who I talked about above, left and tucked last time and with similar tactics tonight has a very big chance. Wildcat Bobby continues to race well and ran very nicely last out. IF he can leave from the 10 hole(there does not appear to be much speed in here, just haven’t seen him show the ability to do so) he has a big chance, if he ducks to last, lots of luck. #7 Lucky Crusader ran huge 2 back and had no chance in last trying to close from last into a 54.3 last half. Unfortunately he is in the 7 hole and doubt he gets much pace to run at. LifeisGoodtoday actually is interesting here. Finally gets an inside draw and has tactical speed to get a good trip. Not crazy about his recent races but with the right trip this could be his best shot in a while.
12th) 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10(#10 weak top choice).
Another very tricky race. Off figures the key contenders are the 3-9-10. Of the 3 I like Special Joe the most as he was the victim not the beneficiary in the race I discussed above. If he was drawn inside I would probably take a shot and single him, but from the 10 hole outside of Fox Valley Cupid, that is dangerous. Also his prior form in previous races isn’t so hot. Sage Ruck-had the dream trip and earned a figure far better than any race prior. Did he suddenly get that much better? I severely doubt it, but we will find out. Stamped by Design actually showed improvement 2 back and then of course earned that nice figure last out in that common race. Doesn’t normally leave and he is stuck out in the 9 hole. What makes things worse is if you do not trust these three and I surely do not you have to go 8 deep as everybody except the 6-7 have a shot(also the 7 who I am tossing is first time Casey Leonard(does he know something-because I surely do not see anything in this horse).
13th) 1-2-4-6-10
1-Ashes to Dust shipped in from CNL(wherever that is) for his last start and came up dead on the board and did not get the feeling there was a lot of motivation to compete. While most CNL horses have not competed however on Wednesday, a pair came up big running 1-2 from the outside 2 posts(the winner at 22-1). TM ratings for prior 2 races solid and switches to a local driver and has a big upset look at what I assume will be a hefty price.
2-Major Male-has had trouble in last 2. Last cleared midstretch(outside horses had already gone by him) and wasn’t able to make up the ground. He is nothing special, but with the right trip has a look.
4) Monopoly Man-3rd start in cycle. Nice improve last out from prior. Was 3rd over into that 56 second last half and closed best he could. Give him a good figure for the race and prior form(june 7th and 2013 form is much better than these). Has a big look.
6) Ready-Not sure what driver was doing with him last week. It isn’t rocket science with him. You leave hard and put everyone behind you or you quarter move. There is only one way this horse can win, go to the front and hope nobody passes him. To go 1st over was just plain stupid. October 26th race would give him a big look. Can he duplicate it now is anybody’s guess. Went off at 11-1 last time so should be good value again.
10) Ricky Bobbie-Actually closed really nicely in last, last ½ in 54.2 loaded with pace at the wire. Was facing much better not too long ago and certainly seems to be in top form again. Must contend with the 10 hole however. Would be my clear top choice if he did not have the 10 post.
Before getting started-I want to discuss 1 race from last week. That was the 12th (nw 2000 l5) race won by Holy Chip. It is important because it earned a very good figure(went 2 length faster than the n8000 l5 race won by Lennox Blue Chip with very similar fractions). The reason it is of significance is that there was a first ¼ duel(as B Carpenter driving a zillion-1 shot Pansaflying decided to fly out from the rail and in doing so really took a lot out of Washington Hanover who eventually cleared the ¼ in 27 flat after going 4/3 wide around the first turn. What ended up happening is Holy Chip who had tucked the 5 hole came 1st over and wore down a dead tired Washington Hanover-Panaflying was gapping from the 2 hole and basically the race went 1st over 1st, 2nd over 2nd, 3rd over 3rd, 4th over 4th and 5th over 5th as the inner flow stopped. Now obviously the winner Holy Chip raced well, coming the last ½ in 55.1 1st over, but that was even aided by the fact he had a dead tired leader inside of him. The point is that we have a bunch of horses in that race that earned very nice figures, but only did exactly what they were supposed to do. I am not sold any of them raced as well as the figure would indicate. We also have another horse name Special Joe who was part of the early speed duel took a seat, got shuffled badly and cleared late. I bring this up because all but one of these horses are racing tonight and as handicappers you have to decide whether or not to use them.
10th) 1-2-3-5-8(strong top choice 1)
1-Kingofthejungle-Has been facing the top class horses in most of his races. Raced in conditioned races at Balmoral twice earlier in the year and ran well, but not so well that I would trust singling him. Does make a very solid top choice however.
2-Old Man River-continues to race well rail riding and motoring home. Solid efforts last 2. I think he will have a tougher trip in this spot however.
3-Kansas Wildcat-Has been off a month, but switches to a very high percentage barn and seems a fit on class and has good early speed.
5-Extravagant Art-Shot out to the lead last time(which is not something he usually can do) but that was because nobody left but him and Wildcat Bobby from the inside(who retook). In here has Kansas Wildcat inside of him and Major Monet outside of him, so whether he can leave and sit his ideal pocket trip remains to be seen(I would guess not). Very sharp right now(last half in 54.1 last race) however, so I will use him.
8) Major Monet, was used pretty good last out. Left hard in 27.2, then had to retake and then got pushed hard by a very impressive 1st over winner Lennox Blue Chip. That being said, I do not think he is on top of his game and still must deal with the 8 post. Have to use him however.
11th) 3-6-7-9-10
This race is tricky. On class it appears that #6 Major Bombay is a complete standout. However he has not raced in over a year so it is just a complete guess what we will see tonight. What makes it worse is you have no glimpse of the straight betting pools(since the pick 4 starts the race before) to see how live he is. Obviously has to be used. The 2 best known horses are drawn in the 9 and 10 hole. Holy Chip, who I talked about above, left and tucked last time and with similar tactics tonight has a very big chance. Wildcat Bobby continues to race well and ran very nicely last out. IF he can leave from the 10 hole(there does not appear to be much speed in here, just haven’t seen him show the ability to do so) he has a big chance, if he ducks to last, lots of luck. #7 Lucky Crusader ran huge 2 back and had no chance in last trying to close from last into a 54.3 last half. Unfortunately he is in the 7 hole and doubt he gets much pace to run at. LifeisGoodtoday actually is interesting here. Finally gets an inside draw and has tactical speed to get a good trip. Not crazy about his recent races but with the right trip this could be his best shot in a while.
12th) 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10(#10 weak top choice).
Another very tricky race. Off figures the key contenders are the 3-9-10. Of the 3 I like Special Joe the most as he was the victim not the beneficiary in the race I discussed above. If he was drawn inside I would probably take a shot and single him, but from the 10 hole outside of Fox Valley Cupid, that is dangerous. Also his prior form in previous races isn’t so hot. Sage Ruck-had the dream trip and earned a figure far better than any race prior. Did he suddenly get that much better? I severely doubt it, but we will find out. Stamped by Design actually showed improvement 2 back and then of course earned that nice figure last out in that common race. Doesn’t normally leave and he is stuck out in the 9 hole. What makes things worse is if you do not trust these three and I surely do not you have to go 8 deep as everybody except the 6-7 have a shot(also the 7 who I am tossing is first time Casey Leonard(does he know something-because I surely do not see anything in this horse).
13th) 1-2-4-6-10
1-Ashes to Dust shipped in from CNL(wherever that is) for his last start and came up dead on the board and did not get the feeling there was a lot of motivation to compete. While most CNL horses have not competed however on Wednesday, a pair came up big running 1-2 from the outside 2 posts(the winner at 22-1). TM ratings for prior 2 races solid and switches to a local driver and has a big upset look at what I assume will be a hefty price.
2-Major Male-has had trouble in last 2. Last cleared midstretch(outside horses had already gone by him) and wasn’t able to make up the ground. He is nothing special, but with the right trip has a look.
4) Monopoly Man-3rd start in cycle. Nice improve last out from prior. Was 3rd over into that 56 second last half and closed best he could. Give him a good figure for the race and prior form(june 7th and 2013 form is much better than these). Has a big look.
6) Ready-Not sure what driver was doing with him last week. It isn’t rocket science with him. You leave hard and put everyone behind you or you quarter move. There is only one way this horse can win, go to the front and hope nobody passes him. To go 1st over was just plain stupid. October 26th race would give him a big look. Can he duplicate it now is anybody’s guess. Went off at 11-1 last time so should be good value again.
10) Ricky Bobbie-Actually closed really nicely in last, last ½ in 54.2 loaded with pace at the wire. Was facing much better not too long ago and certainly seems to be in top form again. Must contend with the 10 hole however. Would be my clear top choice if he did not have the 10 post.