Belmont bias

[Valuist]

I definitely thought the outside was the place to be opening day. Most of the winners were well off the rail on the main track and 4 out of the 6 dirt races were won by the outside post horse.

[cj]

Thanks for the heads up! Loved the 2d at Belmont!

[Valuist]

Not a bad double using the 2 outer posts in the opening 2 races. Looks like more of the same. There will be some good betbacks who had rail trips; Formal Attire is one that comes to mind.

[kenwoodallpromos]

To me it looked like leaders changed on the turn. Normal speed track, best hprse wins.

[cj]

Not in the 2d, the winner came from the clouds to get up late...not sure what race you were watching?

[Valuist]

Here's the Equibase comments:

1st Illusionary Magic close up outside 4 wide. Tomorrow's Idol, the 2-1 chalk from the 2 hole showed speed inside and finished last

2nd Cupids Arrow 5 wide throughout (at least that wide in stretch). Curly's Pride was inside speed at 7-2 finishing 3rd, behind the 17-1 winner and 33-1 runnerup

3rd- Western Expression- speed outside drew away (probably closer to the 2 path than real outside). Defy the Odds 9-2 speed from the rail ran dead last

5th- Bank Audit wins from 1 hole but the rider managed to get 3 wide on the turn.

Still think the outside is the place to be, although Western Exp was only in the 2 path.

[OTM Al]

Looks like this is the trend there through the second day as well with horses coming from well back in the pack to win. The rail out to about the 3 path have been proclaimed dead by the local press already. This and Aqueduct are definitely tracks where the amount of moisture in the surface radically changes everthing.

[cj]

For as nice a track as Belmont is and the high quality of racing that is run there, it is a shame they can't seem to fix the "dead rail" syndrome. It is usually outside speed winning there though, not deep closers.

[OTM Al]

Thing is, why should they have to fix it? The jockeys and trainers should know the tendencies of the track as well as the gamblers. Thus, it should be a non-issue. Jockey rides against the bias of the track, discount his mounts. Jockey rides with the bias, give him some credit. Plenty of room off the rail on that track that no horse seriously vying for the race shouldn't have a lane available.

[cj]

Sounds good, but how about a true frontrunner, or presser drawing down inside? They are doomed. The frontrunner is totally screwed, the presser has to give up ground to maneuver outside.

[OTM Al]

Tactical positioning is the nature of the race no matter the bias. With a bias, the front runner would do well not to hug the rail, but stay out a bit. He'll lose a little ground, though will be able to maintain a slight bit more of his speed coming out of the turn, but others will have to lose more to get him by going further out, or have to catch him running inside against the bias. They catch him either way, then they would have caught him on a "fair" track too. There is nothing that makes me cringe more than a front runner that I have coming around the final turn with a fair lead in the 2 or 3 path and angling in to a well known dead rail. Especially if the jock has already been out on the track that day. There's no forgiving a move like that.

I just say it's up to the trainer and the jockey to know their horse and the track well enough to put together some sort of plan to use if the chance presents itself and we as handicappers had better be able to recognize it as well. The biased tracks give us the best opportunities, I believe, as long as we can match the horse, jockey, trainer combination with the bias.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Today 5-7-04 the Bel bias was a slow stretch. I study the results charts.