What am I missing? (odds)

[Dark Horse]

The odds are Turf Paradise are crazy compared to the big tracks.
Today they added up to about an absurd 142% when the race went off. That was lowered to 127% in the final odds, still way above the 119-120% of a place like Del Mar. This is normal for Turf Paradise, but it seems much too high. So I'm missing something. Where on the Turf Paradise line does it say they can take this much out: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore2013.html

[Stillriledup]

I bet the 3 horse in the 5th race at 4-1 and got 8-5. Not sure when the odds changed, but this horse was 4-1 at 0 MTP.

Seemed like everyone else stayed the same, except the winner, who paid 5 and not 10.

[Some_One]

For the OP - answer is higher takeout, pure and simple (15.43 vs 20.75)
For SRU, unlike Woodbine where the race is ready to be off when its 0 MTP, the 0 MTP at TuP can easily be as much as 5 mins. At the 1 MTP flash, there was 8K in the pool in R5, finished at 37K

[Dark Horse]

I bet the 3 horse in the 5th race at 4-1 and got 8-5. Not sure when the odds changed, but this horse was 4-1 at 0 MTP.

Seemed like everyone else stayed the same, except the winner, who paid 5 and not 10.

There's plenty of past posting going on there, or past post cancellation.

Reminds me of the Arizona bill earlier in the year that would finally allow telephone and internet wagering on the races. At the very last moment late money came in, and the internet part was scratched.

I'm thinking the Turf Paradise ownership is corrupt, but prefer to be shown wrong.

[Dark Horse]

picked this up from the past:

The head of Arizona's Racing Department was fired Friday amid an investigation into the new owner of Turf Paradise racetrack. Higginbottom had recommended approval of a racing license to Simms, the new owner of Turf, despite questions about Simms' involvement in a California political-corruption scandal 10 years ago and his financial ties to a former casino owner who was a front for organized crime.
The Arizona Republic September 9, 2000

[acorn54]

well if bettors just refrained from betting at these tracks that have alot of monkey business going on, things would change, but as long as enough horseplayers have to get their "fix" for the day it will be business as usual.
personally i have started investing in investment grade stamps to fill the void that the lack of action due to small fields has had on my style of wagering.
i know i see the nyra talking heads on the daily handicapping show push the pik 3,4,5,6 wagers, i just see that as trying to make lemonade with lemons.

[Quesmark]

For the OP - answer is higher takeout, pure and simple (15.43 vs 20.75)
For SRU, unlike Woodbine where the race is ready to be off when its 0 MTP, the 0 MTP at TuP can easily be as much as 5 mins. At the 1 MTP flash, there was 8K in the pool in R5, finished at 37K
Experienced players need to take into account the takeout rate they're betting into,and avoid the worst of it.
Post Time isn't an accurate measure at some tracks[like Woodbine,NYRA,Remington Park,] 0 means 0 and wagering closes,at other places 0 could mean ?[like Tampa Bay Downs,and Charles Town].
Woodbine and Mohawk harness tracks both use countdown clocks 1 minute before betting closes,this is a system tracks should seriously consider implementing,unless an incident happens to cause a re-set.

[Dark Horse]

For the OP - answer is higher takeout, pure and simple (15.43 vs 20.75)
For SRU, unlike Woodbine where the race is ready to be off when its 0 MTP, the 0 MTP at TuP can easily be as much as 5 mins. At the 1 MTP flash, there was 8K in the pool in R5, finished at 37K

On my interface it shows exactly what the total percentages for the odds add up to. After breakage for the race in question: 127+%. Before the race a crazy - never seen it that high - 142%. When I see 142% I know that something is wrong, because even if you'd change every 250 (5/2) to 290 (just under 3/1) and every 5/1 to 6/1 you couldn't produce such a high number (for the field size in question). That could mean that the odds on this tote board are, in fact, imaginary!

[castaway01]

On my interface it shows exactly what the total percentages for the odds add up to. After breakage for the race in question: 127+%. Before the race a crazy - never seen it that high - 142%. When I see 142% I know that something is wrong, because even if you'd change every 250 (5/2) to 290 (just under 3/1) and every 5/1 to 6/1 you couldn't produce such a high number (for the field size in question). That could mean that the odds on this tote board are, in fact, imaginary!

At least you've learned one thing in this thread---Turf Paradise has a very high win takeout---and you've already said you think there's past posting going on there. So, you'll never bet that track again, right?

Right?

[DeltaLover]

The odds are Turf Paradise are crazy compared to the big tracks.
Today they added up to about an absurd 142% when the race went off. That was lowered to 127% in the final odds, still way above the 119-120% of a place like Del Mar. This is normal for Turf Paradise, but it seems much too high. So I'm missing something. Where on the Turf Paradise line does it say they can take this much out: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore2013.html

I would just stay clear from TP

[Dark Horse]

Staying away is an option. As is working with twice the overlay. It took a bit of work to chart the jockey colony that moves between Canterbury and Turf Paradise. It includes Scott Stevens, the elder brother of Gary. I think I bet three races since the meet started in October, winning two, so it's a little thing on the side. The cons are obvious, the pros are racing on Mondays and Tuesdays (dark days are Thursdays and Fridays), the length of the meet, and less sharp action than at the big tracks.

[johnhannibalsmith]

picked this up from the past:

Give it more context:

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2001/mar/22/with-friends-these/?page=1&

[Dark Horse]

Give it more context:

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2001/mar/22/with-friends-these/?page=1&

Thanks. Quite the background. Money to buy political favors. The way America is run, right?

More on Jerry Simms:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55767/five-questions-jerry-simms

I'm starting to get a better idea of what it was that I was missing. lol

[Stillriledup]

Thanks. Quite the background. Money to buy political favors. The way America is run, right?

More on Jerry Simms:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55767/five-questions-jerry-simms

I'm starting to get a better idea of what it was that I was missing. lol

No, not quite. In America, everyone has honor, especially politicians. They not only never lie, but campaign donations mean nothing, its all about morals and if they can do the right thing for the masses. So, if you donate to a LOT to a campaign, don't expect any favors, politicians are too above board to operate like that. :rolleyes:

[Appy]

"...politicians. They not only never lie, but campaign donations mean nothing, its all about morals and if they can do the right thing for the masses. So, if you donate a LOT to a campaign, don't expect any favors, politicians are too above board to operate like that."

Riiiight (sarcasm noted)! Exactly why, since Brownback was elected gov, there is no longer horse racing in Kansas.

[HUSKER55]

I bet the 3 horse in the 5th race at 4-1 and got 8-5. Not sure when the odds changed, but this horse was 4-1 at 0 MTP.

Seemed like everyone else stayed the same, except the winner, who paid 5 and not 10.

that is the reason I quit playing turf paradise.

[Dark Horse]

No, not quite. In America, everyone has honor, especially politicians. They not only never lie, but campaign donations mean nothing, its all about morals and if they can do the right thing for the masses. So, if you donate to a LOT to a campaign, don't expect any favors, politicians are too above board to operate like that. :rolleyes:


Here's a little more on the way America is run. Corporate fascism, disguised as democracy. This one about anti-internet gambling. As if they (the Republicans, in this case) haven't destroyed it enough already. One wealthy donor goes a long way:

http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/november/16/internet-gambling-ban-a-winner-for-sheldon-adelson-a-losing-bet-for-the-rest-of-us/

[raybo]

that is the reason I quit playing turf paradise.

The only time I have been able to play Tup profitably was early in the meet. After that it's either very low priced winners, or very high priced winners, at least that is the way I remember it (haven't played that track in well over a year). Delta is another track where things seem to be moving, rapidly, in that direction, after the early part of the meet, you either can't make a profit on the logical horses (odds too low), or you can't imagine how the winners won (hit rate too low on the high odds horses), and the ones in the middle often get bet down after post time. :bang:

[thaskalos]

Here's a little more on the way America is run. Corporate fascism, disguised as democracy. This one about anti-internet gambling. As if they (the Republicans, in this case) haven't destroyed it enough already. One wealthy donor goes a long way:

http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/november/16/internet-gambling-ban-a-winner-for-sheldon-adelson-a-losing-bet-for-the-rest-of-us/

American "logic" at work. Gambling is an "immoral and destructive activity"...so let's keep it off the internet...but allow land-based casinos in every city, and slot machines in every restaurant/bar. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/november/16/internet-gambling-ban-a-winner-for-sheldon-adelson-a-losing-bet-for-the-rest-of-us/

Well said! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: