PDA

View Full Version : Supertrainers and lack of Grade 1s


Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 03:28 PM
I've been following the game for a while now and some of the greatest horsemen and trainers i've seen in my lifetime, who have THOUSANDS of wins, have very few graded stakes wins and almost no Grade 1 wins and i'm going to ask you all, how can this be.

The trainers i'm thinking about are: Scott Lake, Kirk Ziadie, Jorge Navarro and Jamie Ness.

These 4 men are some of the greatest horsemen in the sport and have been for some time, they are all hall of famers or hall of famers to be based on production and wins, and yet, owners don't give them horses that compete in the grade 1s.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that the best trainers in the game are essentially toiling in obscurity as far as "big days" go. You don't see these superior horsemen in the Derby or the Triple Crown or other big events, didn't see them in the Travers or Haskell or Breeders Cup.

Anyone have a theory as to why these all time great horsemen dont run horses in the big races and don't win Grade 1s?

RunForTheRoses
11-09-2014, 03:52 PM
I've been following the game for a while now and some of the greatest horsemen and trainers i've seen in my lifetime, who have THOUSANDS of wins, have very few graded stakes wins and almost no Grade 1 wins and i'm going to ask you all, how can this be.

The trainers i'm thinking about are: Scott Lake, Kirk Ziadie, Jorge Navarro and Jamie Ness.

These 4 men are some of the greatest horsemen in the sport and have been for some time, they are all hall of famers or hall of famers to be based on production and wins, and yet, owners don't give them horses that compete in the grade 1s.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that the best trainers in the game are essentially toiling in obscurity as far as "big days" go. You don't see these superior horsemen in the Derby or the Triple Crown or other big events, didn't see them in the Travers or Haskell or Breeders Cup.

Anyone have a theory as to why these all time great horsemen dont run horses in the big races and don't win Grade 1s?

Yeah but to a certain extent it has always been that way, that is claiming trainers vs stakes trainers. Did the great Frank Martin ever win a graded stakes (I'm not even going to google, I'm pretty sure he had some minor success over a long career, Sham must be one, but for all the years he had he didn't have many).
Finally, the answer to your last question is owners. I bet Lake has way way way more Maiden Claimer wins than Mack Miller did.

Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 04:42 PM
Yeah but to a certain extent it has always been that way, that is claiming trainers vs stakes trainers. Did the great Frank Martin ever win a graded stakes (I'm not even going to google, I'm pretty sure he had some minor success over a long career, Sham must be one, but for all the years he had he didn't have many).
Finally, the answer to your last question is owners. I bet Lake has way way way more Maiden Claimer wins than Mack Miller did.

Its amazing to me how owners don't just open up the newspaper, look at the trainer standings, see which trainers win the most and entrust these people with expensive young horseflesh. Would any of the 4 trainers i've mentioned not accept a million dollar yearling to train?

Is there some reason that the perception is that these trainers i've mentioned can't do as good a job with a young horse as anyone in the game? These guys are essentially horse whisperers, makes you wonder why they're not getting a shot.

Hambletonian
11-09-2014, 04:47 PM
come on dude, be honest, we are adults here. you know exactly why this situation exists.

it is one thing to play games with horse worth 20k, quite another with horses worth 200k.

Saratoga_Mike
11-09-2014, 04:50 PM
Lake's stats haven't been anything out of the ordinary in a number of years, in my opinion. He has trained a number of Grade II and III winners, and he finished on the board in the Grade I BC Sprint a couple of times.

jk3521
11-09-2014, 04:52 PM
Wouldn't you think that some of these trainers[Ness, Navarro] would rather stay out of the glare of the spotlight races, being that they have been accused of "dubious" practices. Talking about those "High Security" events. They might say thank you , but no thank you!

Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 04:52 PM
come on dude, be honest, we are adults here. you know exactly why this situation exists.

it is one thing to play games with horse worth 20k, quite another with horses worth 200k.

Owners want to win, these trainers are better than almost any other trainer at winning and yet, they don't get shots. Must be more to it than meets the eye.

Saratoga_Mike
11-09-2014, 04:54 PM
Owners want to win, these trainers are better than almost any other trainer at winning and yet, they don't get shots. Must be more to it than meets the eye.

Rudy Rod and David Jacobson have done well in big-time NYRA stakes events.

Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 04:56 PM
Wouldn't you think that some of these trainers[Ness, Navarro] would rather stay out of the glare of the spotlight races, being that they have been accused of "dubious" practices. Talking about those "High Security" events. They might say thank you , but no thank you!

In order to consciously stay out of the spotlight, they would have to turn down horses that are capable of being in those races. So, they're either not getting offered those horses for some reason or they're saying no thanks. Interesting points you make, but i can't imagine these "Dubious" practices are anything more than rumors, these guys are still training so tracks don't think they're doing anything wrong. ONeill is a grade 1 trainer and he's sitting out 60 days or something like that and Navarro and Ziadie are humming along.

magwell
11-09-2014, 05:14 PM
Owners want to win, these trainers are better than almost any other trainer at winning and yet, they don't get shots. Must be more to it than meets the eye.The big money owners want to be with the big name trainers but when guys like Rudy or Marty W. get their hands on a good horse they get the best out of them, would be the same with Kirt Z. and Jorge N. or Ness, they just dont get the expensive baby's or the best bred hombreds. They are considered not fashionable enough and because they win a lot of races they must be cheating , when your dealing with cheap bad legged horses all the time your going to get some bad test along the way if your winning a lot of races..........

jk3521
11-09-2014, 06:39 PM
It is intersesting that Richard Dutrow and Doug O 'Neil weaseled in and out of trouble over the years until they both trained a Triple Crown possibility which brought them into a very bright spotlight. Even people who didn't know or care about horse racing knew who they were. Everything they did from that point was put under a microscope and led [hopefully ] to their ruin.Be careful what you wish for because you might get it!

Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 06:41 PM
It is intersesting that Richard Dutrow and Doug O 'Neil weaseled in and out of trouble over the years until they both trained a Triple Crown possibility which brought them into a very bright spotlight. Even people who didn't know or care about horse racing knew who they were. Everything they did from that point was put under a microscope and led [hopefully ] to their ruin.Be careful what you wish for because you might get it!

This is a good point.

dilanesp
11-09-2014, 06:48 PM
I think this is half-chicanery, half-completely legitimate reasons.

It's obviously true that if doping in the claiming ranks is lower risk and higher reward than doping a stakes horse (though the latter happens, e.g., Dancer's Image; I tend to think Lava Man was doped, to point to a fairly recent example).

But even if we totally eliminated doping, we'd still see this gap, which has existed forever. The claiming trainer has a different business model from Wayne Lukas or Shug McGaughey.

jk3521
11-09-2014, 06:49 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/kentucky-derby/derby-winner-exile-trainer-rick-dutrow-fights-his-racing-life-n95636

Yeah, Right! :lol:

davew
11-09-2014, 07:16 PM
quite a different niche don't you think?

someone who starts with quite a few half million dollar yearling purchases or bloodstock from the best farms in the world

vs

someone who gets animals via claim or lower valued private treaty?


although it does happen, the percentage of GR 1 winners that have been previously claimed is rather low.

jk3521
11-09-2014, 07:25 PM
quite a different niche don't you think?

someone who starts with quite a few half million dollar yearling purchases or bloodstock from the best farms in the world

vs

someone who gets animals via claim or lower valued private treaty?


although it does happen, the percentage of GR 1 winners that have been previously claimed is rather low.
Ya mean like Lava Man ! [O'Neil]

dilanesp
11-09-2014, 07:25 PM
quite a different niche don't you think?

someone who starts with quite a few half million dollar yearling purchases or bloodstock from the best farms in the world

vs

someone who gets animals via claim or lower valued private treaty?


although it does happen, the percentage of GR 1 winners that have been previously claimed is rather low.

Also, sometimes trainers graduate from one to the other.

When I was a little kid, Jack Van Berg was a claiming trainer (and a great one). Ten years later, he had a bunch of stakes horses at major tracks.

Stillriledup
11-09-2014, 07:31 PM
Also, sometimes trainers graduate from one to the other.

When I was a little kid, Jack Van Berg was a claiming trainer (and a great one). Ten years later, he had a bunch of stakes horses at major tracks.

Senor Frankel also was a claiming guy back in the day and graduated to a high level trainer of Grade 1 runners.

magwell
11-09-2014, 08:12 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/kentucky-derby/derby-winner-exile-trainer-rick-dutrow-fights-his-racing-life-n95636

Yeah, Right! :lol:If the truth be told he was railroaded because he was too blunt (didn't know when to dummy up) and most people inside the game know and admit that 10 years was way out of line. A lot of big named trainers would rather get rid of a horse than take the chance Rick would claim and move the horse up on them......

chadk66
11-09-2014, 08:33 PM
the horse business can be an extremely bizarre business. you'll drive yourself nuts trying to figure it out.

thespaah
11-09-2014, 10:36 PM
every racing circuit has it's stables which win at a high percentage.
Yet, Few of these conditioners are known for saddling stakes caliber horses.
John Forbes in NJ along with Jan Nerud were high percentage trainers for years.
In Maryland there was E E Weymouth, John Tamarro and King T Leatherbury.
And in New York there was Pete Ferriola and Richard Dutrow..
Most if not all of these trainers were quantity over quality.
They had large public stables filled with low to mid level claimers and allowance stock.

iceknight
01-01-2016, 12:00 PM
every racing circuit has it's stables which win at a high percentage.
Yet, Few of these conditioners are known for saddling stakes caliber horses.
John Forbes in NJ along with Jan Nerud were high percentage trainers for years.
In Maryland there was E E Weymouth, John Tamarro and King T Leatherbury.
And in New York there was Pete Ferriola and Richard Dutrow..
Most if not all of these trainers were quantity over quality.
They had large public stables filled with low to mid level claimers and allowance stock.Happy New Year guys and gals!
I searched for Leatherbury as I didn't want to create a new thread... But looks like T Leatherbury got a Maryland Hall of Fame induction last year (2015).

https://www.racingmuseum.org/hall-of-fame/king-t-leatherbury

I got to that page while I was searching for Maryland professional engineer licensure..talk about distractions :lol:

chadk66
01-01-2016, 01:17 PM
Owners want to win, these trainers are better than almost any other trainer at winning and yet, they don't get shots. Must be more to it than meets the eye.I think it boils down to the fact that the owner wants a horse left after a year or so of being at the track.

chadk66
01-01-2016, 01:19 PM
In order to consciously stay out of the spotlight, they would have to turn down horses that are capable of being in those races. So, they're either not getting offered those horses for some reason or they're saying no thanks. Interesting points you make, but i can't imagine these "Dubious" practices are anything more than rumors, these guys are still training so tracks don't think they're doing anything wrong. ONeill is a grade 1 trainer and he's sitting out 60 days or something like that and Navarro and Ziadie are humming along.This is a very small business in reality. Word travels fast regarding anyone and anything. So it really isn't very hard to figure out why those individuals and others don't have those types of horses aside from stumbling onto one occasionally.

Stillriledup
01-01-2016, 01:31 PM
This is a very small business in reality. Word travels fast regarding anyone and anything. So it really isn't very hard to figure out why those individuals and others don't have those types of horses aside from stumbling onto one occasionally.

But wouldn't the word that travels be the super trainers win percentage?

chadk66
01-01-2016, 02:17 PM
But wouldn't the word that travels be the super trainers win percentage?nope. good owners know how those percentages are derived at. Most want no part of it. The owners of graded stakes mares want those mares to be able to retire when they're done racing and raise babies.

Stillriledup
01-01-2016, 02:27 PM
nope. good owners know how those percentages are derived at. Most want no part of it. The owners of graded stakes mares want those mares to be able to retire when they're done racing and raise babies.

I've found that other than a select few sharp owners, most owners aren't racing experts. Owning a horse doesn't automatically turn you into someone who knows what's going on.

chadk66
01-01-2016, 03:47 PM
I've found that other than a select few sharp owners, most owners aren't racing experts. Owning a horse doesn't automatically turn you into someone who knows what's going on.you don't have to be smart to know who's doing what and who isn't. believe me there's plenty of talk going around all the time.

castaway01
01-01-2016, 04:33 PM
Posting 50 times a day doesn't mean you know what's going on either, but that hasn't stopped you. ;)

CryingForTheHorses
01-01-2016, 07:31 PM
:Posting 50 times a day doesn't mean you know what's going on either, but that hasn't stopped you. ;)


:lol: :lol: :lol: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

SuperPickle
01-01-2016, 07:55 PM
One of the points SRU is missing is super trainers rarely have horses hold form for extended periods of times. Most of the time it's a couple races maybe 3-6 months.

You can't train a $500K yearling like that.

Also the skills are vastly different. Bill Mott tried claiming a couple horses this summer. None of the claims were especially successful. This doesn't mean he can't win Grade Ones. Just as the opposite is true. Just because you can make a $10K claimer into a $40k claimer doesn't mean you have any idea how to make a $500K yearling a Grade one winner.

Stillriledup
01-01-2016, 07:59 PM
One of the points SRU is missing is super trainers rarely have horses hold form for extended periods of times. Most of the time it's a couple races maybe 3-6 months.

You can't train a $500K yearling like that.

Also the skills are vastly different. Bill Mott tried claiming a couple horses this summer. None of the claims were especially successful. This doesn't mean he can't win Grade Ones. Just as the opposite is true. Just because you can make a $10K claimer into a $40k claimer doesn't mean you have any idea how to make a $500K yearling a Grade one winner.

But this assumes owners know this. Many of them don't, they're flavor of the month owners opening up the paper to see which trainer has the most wins.

chadk66
01-01-2016, 11:28 PM
But this assumes owners know this. Many of them don't, they're flavor of the month owners opening up the paper to see which trainer has the most wins.the owners that don't know this don't own graded stakes horses as a general rule. they play around with $5000 claimers because they just want to be in the game.

Fager Fan
01-02-2016, 02:43 AM
Owners want to win, these trainers are better than almost any other trainer at winning and yet, they don't get shots. Must be more to it than meets the eye.

Come on. You know the answer you your own question.

rastajenk
01-02-2016, 08:05 AM
I've found that other than a select few sharp owners, most owners aren't racing experts. Owning a horse doesn't automatically turn you into someone who knows what's going on.While not entirely disagreeing with your conclusion, I'm wondering how it is you "found out." Do you know a few owners (which would be a pretty tiny sample size), or have you interviewed a lot of them from different places and different backgrounds, is it sublimely apparent from the past performances, or are you just making crap up out of thin air?

Stillriledup
01-02-2016, 08:14 AM
While not entirely disagreeing with your conclusion, I'm wondering how it is you "found out." Do you know a few owners (which would be a pretty tiny sample size), or have you interviewed a lot of them from different places and different backgrounds, is it sublimely apparent from the past performances, or are you just making crap up out of thin air?

Why would it be 'crap'?do you think purchasing a horse makes you an expert? I'm not following the crap part.

CryingForTheHorses
01-02-2016, 08:45 AM
One of the points SRU is missing is super trainers rarely have horses hold form for extended periods of times. Most of the time it's a couple races maybe 3-6 months.

You can't train a $500K yearling like that.

Also the skills are vastly different. Bill Mott tried claiming a couple horses this summer. None of the claims were especially successful. This doesn't mean he can't win Grade Ones. Just as the opposite is true. Just because you can make a $10K claimer into a $40k claimer doesn't mean you have any idea how to make a $500K yearling a Grade one winner.


A good horse can/will run for anybody!..How many of these super trainers have been suspended for positive tests..Need I say more!!

rastajenk
01-02-2016, 08:46 AM
No, I certainly don't think ownership equals expertise. But since being an expert is hard to define, I'm just wondering how you reached your conclusion that a few are sharp and most aren't. Or, if it's so patently obvious, did it take a while to reach the "found out" part?

ultracapper
01-02-2016, 10:03 AM
Why would it be 'crap'?do you think purchasing a horse makes you an expert? I'm not following the crap part.

Do you thing anybody would be idiot enough to buy a $500k, potential G1 horse, after, or before, just "opening the paper and looking at stats" to determine who their trainer would be? The breeders and trainers and pinhookers and all those guys know one another. A seller that has gotten a good price from certain connections in the past will go back to those connections when they think a young horse may be showing something. Obviously a lot of those high percentage trainers you listed aren't plugged into that loop as well as others. The Bafferts and Pletchers and those guys have their network in place. They have their money in place. The farms are letting them know shit joe blow is never gonna hear.

ultracapper
01-02-2016, 10:08 AM
Come on. You know the answer you your own question.

The trolling must have been slow over the holiday season so he decided to create his own thread for that purpose. Had to get his fix.

GatetoWire
01-02-2016, 11:39 AM
There have been a lot of dumb threads over the years on PA but this has to be the single dumbest thread in the last 10 yrs.

Congrats SRU you have set the bar for future generations!!!

ultracapper
01-02-2016, 12:06 PM
There have been a lot of dumb threads over the years on PA but this has to be the single dumbest thread in the last 10 yrs.

Congrats SRU you have set the bar for future generations!!!

And check this out. This thread has been given a 5 star rating. There are 6 votes, and all 6 were 5 stars. My God, the conclusions you can come to about some of the folks in this community!!! Comical.

Stillriledup
01-02-2016, 12:37 PM
And check this out. This thread has been given a 5 star rating. There are 6 votes, and all 6 were 5 stars. My God, the conclusions you can come to about some of the folks in this community!!! Comical.

The conclusion is that it's just another 50/3000 thread in the making. #hof

Stillriledup
01-02-2016, 12:39 PM
Do you thing anybody would be idiot enough to buy a $500k, potential G1 horse, after, or before, just "opening the paper and looking at stats" to determine who their trainer would be? The breeders and trainers and pinhookers and all those guys know one another. A seller that has gotten a good price from certain connections in the past will go back to those connections when they think a young horse may be showing something. Obviously a lot of those high percentage trainers you listed aren't plugged into that loop as well as others. The Bafferts and Pletchers and those guys have their network in place. They have their money in place. The farms are letting them know shit joe blow is never gonna hear.

I'm still not following, are you saying all owners become racing experts once they buy a horse?

chadk66
01-02-2016, 12:46 PM
I'm still not following, are you saying all owners become racing experts once they buy a horse?if you ask them they are. but most owners that have graded stakes caliber horses don't have them because they are stupid. some are just lucky but most know what the hell they're doing and have the cash to back up their instincts.

Robert Fischer
01-02-2016, 03:16 PM
Do you thing anybody would be idiot enough to buy a $500k, potential G1 horse, after, or before, just "opening the paper and looking at stats" to determine who their trainer would be? The breeders and trainers and pinhookers and all those guys know one another. A seller that has gotten a good price from certain connections in the past will go back to those connections when they think a young horse may be showing something. Obviously a lot of those high percentage trainers you listed aren't plugged into that loop as well as others. The Bafferts and Pletchers and those guys have their network in place. They have their money in place. The farms are letting them know shit joe blow is never gonna hear.

Yea.

It's a network thing.

A lot of these big owners have their people in place.
Many aren't even actively searching out hot trainers in order to make a slick move or maximize a potential stud-deal for a talented 2yo.
If they are, there are already several very high-percentage options available from high-class trainers already in place.

That isn't to say a Navarro or Ness or Ziadie can't build rapport and close a deal with a top owner or farm, but it's going to take more than working miracles with claimers.

ultracapper
01-02-2016, 05:21 PM
I'm still not following, are you saying all owners become racing experts once they buy a horse?

No, what I'm saying is the owner already has himself surrounded by experts when he finds a good horse. He's not looking for horses, and then deciding to start looking for a trainer. Matter of fact, many times it's the trainer alerting the owner to the horse. These guys that blow millions at auction already have the machine in place. The trainer may be sitting right next to him as he's making his bids.

Like somebody just posted, it's by no means a closed shop. Money is the only requirement to get you in the door. But trainers that aren't already in the highest end of the game either need to find new money, or prove themselves with the few really good horses they do get, and make those few really, really good. Some owners I'm sure think they know a hell of a lot more than they do, but the long term successful owners at the very top of the game already have the "experts" in place, and let them do their jobs. I'm sure the Whitneys aren't hanging out on the backstretch every morning at 4:35 AM.

Stillriledup
01-02-2016, 05:57 PM
No, what I'm saying is the owner already has himself surrounded by experts when he finds a good horse. He's not looking for horses, and then deciding to start looking for a trainer. Matter of fact, many times it's the trainer alerting the owner to the horse. These guys that blow millions at auction already have the machine in place. The trainer may be sitting right next to him as he's making his bids.

Like somebody just posted, it's by no means a closed shop. Money is the only requirement to get you in the door. But trainers that aren't already in the highest end of the game either need to find new money, or prove themselves with the few really good horses they do get, and make those few really, really good. Some owners I'm sure think they know a hell of a lot more than they do, but the long term successful owners at the very top of the game already have the "experts" in place, and let them do their jobs. I'm sure the Whitneys aren't hanging out on the backstretch every morning at 4:35 AM.

Ok, gotcha.

thespaah
01-03-2016, 05:29 PM
Its amazing to me how owners don't just open up the newspaper, look at the trainer standings, see which trainers win the most and entrust these people with expensive young horseflesh. Would any of the 4 trainers i've mentioned not accept a million dollar yearling to train?

Is there some reason that the perception is that these trainers i've mentioned can't do as good a job with a young horse as anyone in the game? These guys are essentially horse whisperers, makes you wonder why they're not getting a shot.
Are you being sarcastic?

Stillriledup
01-03-2016, 05:36 PM
Are you being sarcastic?

I've been known to use sarcasm on occasion. ;)

v j stauffer
01-04-2016, 12:03 AM
The trolling must have been slow over the holiday season so he decided to create his own thread for that purpose. Had to get his fix.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Donttellmeshowme
01-04-2016, 07:32 AM
if you ask them they are. but most owners that have graded stakes caliber horses don't have them because they are stupid. some are just lucky but most know what the hell they're doing and have the cash to back up their instincts.




True dat...........