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View Full Version : Balmoral late pick 4 for Saturday 11/8/14


Poindexter
11-08-2014, 07:02 PM
Just a heads up I am in sunny southern California, so I have no idea what the weather conditions are going to be. I am handicapping for a fair track, take under advisement if a storm or heavy wind conditions come into play, tonight or any other night I post. This is a challenging pick 4(the fun kind). I think there could be a lot of somewhat vulnerable chalk and I think if you can nail the pick 4 you should be rewarded.Notice that in 4 races I was only able to come up with one top choice and I doubt he will be favored. Good luck.

10th) Must Use 4-5-8(no top choice)
4-Firstclassalltheway-been competing at this class level at Hoosier. Most horses from Hoosier do really well at Balmoral. Has very competive trackmaster ratings and has raced very well at Balmoral on 8/16 and 9/13 vs better.
5-Headsupyankee-Don’t know the driver-obviously some relation to Pat Curtin, I will assume he is capable. Made him my top choice last week and he got nailed at the wire Earned a solid figure for te race also was used early leaving and had to come 1st over late far turn. Has tactical speed for a good trip.
8-Extravagant Art-He is in pretty sharp form right now. Parked a ¼ to top in last, had traffic trouble and still closed pretty solidly against better. Even nailed Big Brad his last 2 races. 2 back he was unable to clear, parked a ¼ tucked 4 h, shuffled and closed nicely at the nw 9500 level. Solid figures for last 3, the problem is the 8 hole. He is best leaving, then sitting a 2 or 3 hole trip, but although he leaves he does not have the quickest gate speed. That is the reason 2 back he had to take back to the 4 hole. Very capable right now but has to be able to salvage a trip from the 8 hole.
Should use-2-10
2-Wildcat Bobbie-Doesn’t have the figures the top 3 do. That being said, if they get rough trips and fail, I think this is the horse to pick up the pieces. Had no chance in last as he came out 2nd over lost cover and was essentially 1st over in a fast 27.3 3rd quarter in the back of the field. He was working while everyone else was sitting. Still kept to task and closed for 4th. Is previous races were strong at the nw2000 levels(and strong fields for that level). From the 2 post may find himself going 1st over, but he is capable of doing so and doing so well.
10-Lucky Crusader-Earned a nice figure in last. This was a nice step up. Showed signs of life 2 back coming home in 27.1 then put it all together. It is not in his past performances, but if I recall correctly he was competing strongly at the nw 9500 level when he was good, so not concerned about the class hike. I am concerned about the post. Looks like there is too much speed in here for him to leave or even leave and tuck which means he has to go overland, probably about 4th over. If he was drawn inside I would have him a must use. From the 10 hole, borderline should use/could use.
Could use 3-7
3-Smoke Rings-could get a 2nd over trip behind Wildcat Bobbie who should provide good cover. Not sure he is good enough anyhow, but given a nice pace scenario, could prove a danger.
7-Lifeis good today-earned a nice figure in last(a couple lengths shy of the top horses in here), but that was with the benefit of a sweet trip,-parked ¼ to top and then sat behind Washington Hanover who goes an insane 54.4 middle half. Outside again, this guy has had plenty of chances and always fails to get the job done.
11th)
This race is TOUGH.
Must use 2-4-5-9(no top choice)
2)Ready-A pure need the lead type that can dish out some serious fractions. Due to poor posts has chosen to duck in 2 of his last 3 races which for him means he has no chance. His race 10/26 I give him a nice figure for (from the 10 hole). My concern is that both the 5-6 can leave pretty good. I hope this guy can put them in holes behind him, in which case he has a good look at what should be a fairly nice price.
4)Major Male-Won at this level 2 back and with a rail ride in last was completely blocked and appeared loaded with pace. Do not want to get carried away though, as he is just rail riding and closing well. I have to use him, but think he might be over bet.
5) Ashes n Dust-Would like him a lot more if Ready was not in this race. Have to love his last race. Left out in 26.3 and then managed to close for the win earning a TM figure that makes him clearly as good as these. A major factor in here.
9)-Boiler Bob the Qb-Was running big against better at Hoosier back in June. Came back in September at Hoosier and could not get anyting going. Then was freshened for another month, came to Balmoral 10/26 and he rail rode and closed decently(not great and he was hard driven). Obviously needed that race as he came up with a huge effort 11/1. Came 1st over to Gallactic Star, blew by him to clear and came home the last ½ in 56.1. Solid, not special. That being said, he is stuck in the 9 hole. He can leave, but there is a lot of speed in here so he may be ducking in here. Have to use him but the 9 post no bargain.
Should use
1-Galactic Star-been stuck with outside post positions in 4 straight and now draws the rail. Has been hard used every week and I think that has taken its toll on this guy who had been very sharp for a LONG TIME. Should receive a lot of tote support, but I am not sold he is sharp enough to get the job done currently, but if he is able to sit the 2 hole behind Ready, could be dangerous.
3-Western Slammer-Best when he can sit get a clear run an motor home 9/27&10/18. Last race inherited 1st over into s 27.1 3rd quarter and did the best he could under those circumstances.

Could Use(6-8)
6) Crimes of Passion-Tough to gauge. Was struggling at Balmoral back in June/July, then went to Maywood and put in a couple of nice efforts. Scratched Lame 8/22, failed as favorite 8/29, then came back two months later at Maywood in the Slop where he showed speed and died. Have a hard time buying the Trackmaster variant for that race, so I wont.
8) Monopoly Man-Tough to gauge. Was a nice 3 yo last year who obviously had some big physical problems. Came back 6/7 vs tougher and ran fairly well(figure in there is better than these). Then layed off another 5 months, drew the 8 hole, rail rode in the back and closed okay. Figure in there was weak.
Stuck in 8 hole, I guess he could get there but not likely.


12th
Must Use (4-5) Top choice
5- Washington Hanover-This is my top choice here. Does his best work on the lead. That does not mean that he should be take the middle half in 54.1. Obviously that killed any chance he had to compete in his last race. Still, because of the fast fractions, I give the horse a big figure for the race. Now drops in class. Does not appear to be any speed outside of him, so he should get to the lead and control the pace. Last effort makes him the horse to beat.
4-Special Joe-Was a fairly good horse at one time, before falling on hard times. Was coming back around in late August before being laid off for a couple months. First race back was okay, left parked a turn to top, then sat a 2 hole trip after that no match finishing on even terms with Washington Hanover. Should sit a 2 hole trip in here and if Washington Hanover gets tired late, this is likely the one to win the race.

Should Use(6-9)

6-Stamped by Design-used hard in a 26.4 1st quarter from the rail before ending up in the 3 hole, was shuffled some and closed as well as he could. Becoming a fixture at this lower condition level, but do give him a nice figure for his last.
9-Holy Chip-Not the horse he was earlier this year.. Still a couple of solid efforts of late 10/4 and 10/18. The two other races he was stuck in outside post positions as he is tonight. Possibly can leave a take a seat, in which case his chances will go up tremendously. A big chance at this level, post a big concern.
Could use (2-3-7-8)-don’t care for any of these, but I guess stranger things have happened.
13th
Must Use(3-8-9) no top choice

Lifetime Mattjic-Gets a big post break on his main competition. Change of tactics in last and a pretty solid effort off of a month layoff. Used to top, pressured 3rd quarter, just got nailed late for the place. Give im a Good figure for the race as I did on October 4th. Can likely improve off of that and has a huge chance in here.
8-Aces Again-Took advantage of a perfect trip in last and won decisively. Now however, he is back in the 8 hole and is main competition is on the improve. I imagine he will once again be heavily bet, but I think perhaps a little vulnerable tonight-have to use him though.
9-Odds on Serpens-Just keeps getting better. 2 back he came come the last ½ in .56 flat to hold off Aces Again(who was too far back early). Last out he left to tuck 4 hole, came with a strong 1st over brush(54.4 middle half) and earned a pretty solid figure for that effort. Wish he was drawn inside, I would make him horse to beat, but still give him a big shot in here as there does not appear to be a lot of early speed in here.

Should Use-

4) Nancys Skysckape-From the 8 hole, was forced to rail ride and close the best he could. Was a decent effort not great. Had a could of strong efforts in early October that gives him a good look vs these.
10) Sunset Dreamer-Steps up in class after two strong wins at the next lower class level. Competed with this class on 10/12. The bad news is he has the 10 hole and his recent figures, though good are not as good as the top 3. Still think he is a pretty nice horse and should be used vs these. With further improve can be right there. As just mentioned does not appear to be a lot of early speed in here so he should be able to make the top.

Not really worried about anyone else winning in here.