Ultracapper covers Bing

[ultracapper]

No, I'm not recording my version of White Christmas, but I will make a Road movie. It'll either be Road to the Bank or Road to the Poor House.

I'll post my picks for the day, each day, and see what I can do. I'll grade the picks as such:

A+) A horse I won't goof off with. 9/2 or higher, I'll be betting to win to make some money.

A-) The only reason this isn't an A+ is because of price. 4/1 or shorter, I'd single this in any and all horizontal exotics.

B) There is just something here that shakes my confidence and I can't back it whole heartedly, but it would be on every horizontal I'd bet and in all vertical slots.

C) My guess is as good as yours (Maybe better). There are those races that I just can't square up, but I'll post who I think is the most likely winner, but these choices wouldn't get my money in any way shape, or form.

I'll put a pretend 2 and 2 on each and see where it pencils out at the end of the meet.

[ultracapper]

1st

Have something good and negative to say about #2 Diamond Flush, #3 Ann's Gold, #5 Wild Caroline, #6 Mango Reward and #8 Splendid Outcast. It would be fun to discuss this race if we had an hour or so, but I think it would still come up a solid "C" race.

#3 Ann's Gold ran a very good race 30Jul14, only to scratch 8/28/14 and then run a flop 3Oct14. She didn't workout for 3 weeks after that, which is a concern, but if Carava has something up his sleeve or got whatever worked out, this $60k Keeneland purchase has as good a chance as any. She can run relatively forward in a race that doesn't have any real burners in it, and has had some respectable finishes in her life. Blinks off, Trujillo gives it another go, so, why not? Everything in here has issues.

#3 Ann's Gold (C)

[ultracapper]

3rd

This race is such a pass. Pender, Morrow, Maldonado, Antongeorgi, and Pedroza may be sending us some kind of coded messages here. Or maybe Pender just doesn't know what the hell he has in here. Capestro's ownership partner in #1 Clearly Anointed must be an east coast guy and wanted to watch his horse run, so off to PID she goes for the summer. Looking at her past performance lines she would have qualified to start at Del Mar this summer, so why ship to PID? Anybody's guess. #4 Warren's Gussie showed some promise when she started her career as a 4yo in winter 2013, but she was out of the loop for a long time. She is kind of coming around though, so I think that's where I'll go here. 3 solid works since last race, a race that she was going best of all in the stretch. She gets a little more ground here and I'd be surprised if she didn't at minimum fill out the superfecta in this 6 horse field. She could get all the way over the top if it all breaks right.

#4 Warren's Gussie (B)

[ultracapper]

6th

Another mess of a race, and another pass, but there is something to discuss, because 5/2 morning line favorites that look like a toss can lead to prices. #4 Up the Alley is said MLF. Here's a horse that runs the best race of her life 30Jul14 at Del Mar to break her maiden, and then is taken out of the races for 10 weeks. Hot horses don't go to the sidelines in this game that often, particularly cheap ones. Ellis then put at least 6 works into her before her 17Oct14 race, in which she ran quite flat, and now he brings her back 20 days later with ZERO published works. Now many will say that just because they aren't published, that doesn't mean there weren't any works, but really, there is no reason to sneak around the back stretch with a cheap claimer if your Ron Ellis. This whole thing screams problems, problems, problems. I'd stay away from this horse like the plague. #8 Tiz Zoe Cee looked decent in her last, and she's worked well since. She's a plodder that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, but none of these fillies and mares are that interesting, and MJones is known for bringing in horses with ugly form. Her last couple races weren't awful, but she's reliant on a field being full of slow pokes and problems. She seems as healthy as any of them, and she has as good a chance as any of them.

#8 Tiz Zoe Cee (C)

[ultracapper]

1st race (C) place $4.80
3rd race (B) win $10.00 $5.00
6th race (C) OTM

A+ selections 0-0-0-0

A- selections 0-0-0-0

B selections 1-1-0-0 $4 bet $15 return

C selections 2-0-1-0 $8 bet $4.80 return




For the day 3-1-1-0 $12 bet $19.80 return

For the meet 3-1-1-0 $12 bet $19.80 return

[ultracapper]

3rd

I bet Red Man Run both times at Del Mar. He had real trouble at the start last time, weaved his way through the field until he got to the stretch where the front runners were just starting there run to the finish. He ran pretty well through the stretch considering he spent himself getting into the race down the backstretch.

#7 Red Man Run (B)

[ultracapper]

9th

Tried to get all clever yesterday and throw out a favorite that parked. So back for more. #4 Intaxication 5/2 MLF ran a pretty good debut race on paper against much better. However, he debuted with fronts, and Pereira had to stand on him before they got to the finish line. His run-out was awful. His action 50 yards from the line until he stopped cold when he barely made it to the turn looked uncomfortable. Pereira is on the grounds, but doesn't take the call back on this dropper. Just some negatives that would scare me away from him, and I'd toss him again, at least in the horizontals. #11 Bigley and #6 Warren's Sunny Boy look like a couple horses that may appreciate this field. Bigley showed some nice speed in the backstretch in his debut. Would have liked to see him finish a little better, but it was his debut, he's had couple works since that race, he's getting a questionable favorite and a habitual wall crasher (#3 Takeit To the Limit) to aim at, and the class drop can't hurt. Not a big fan of a 4yo that debuts in October however. Warren's Sunny Boy raced a lot closer to the pace in last. It was a slow pace in a 5 horse field, but he kept them in range and ran on well in a race shape that would have been unreasonable to expect him to real them in. Flip a coin. Nah, I did a little more than that.

#11 Bigley (B)

[ultracapper]

3rd (B) OTM
9th (B) OTM


For the Day

(B) 2-0-0-0


For the Meet

(A+) 0-0-0-0

(A-) 0-0-0-0

(B) 3-1-0-0 $12 bet $15 return

(C) 2-0-1-0 $8 bet $4.80 return


Total Action 5-1-1-0 $20 bet $19.80 return

[ultracapper]

5th

Not much to talk about here. Found the #2, #4 and #6 to be the interesting horses. Turn on Calracing.com only to find the #2 scratched, and the other 2 at rock bottom prices for this race. Going horizontally, I'd stick to the #4 and #6. Picking one over the other, I'll give the edge to #4 Home Maid Brownie. I thing #4 Siena Grace will try to get to the engine, which will force HMB to rate off her, which is a question mark. But she has the conditioning on her side and if Pedroza can get her to relax rather than chase, she should wear her down at 7f.

#4 Home Maid Brownie (B)

[ultracapper]

6th

Really, any way Rosa Divina wants to run this race, it should be good enough to win. Her last race really stands out. She made a solid move around the far turn while sitting 4th. She separated and disposed of the field and then chased after the front runners. The winner of that race, Full of Spice, has been a front running battler all year, and it was only a matter of time before she put a field away. Though Rosa Divina was nearly caught at the wire by a late running closer, at the top of the lane there was little question she would fill out the exacta. She runs back to that, she should win.

#1 Rosa Divina (A-)

[ultracapper]

9th

8th race I've handicapped this week, and I was half way sure that I'd finally have something to put a bet on. #7 The Custodian is 7/2 at 8 minutes to post, and I can't take that price on him. If he slips away a little, I'll have my bet for the week, if not, well, I'm not worse off than I was Friday morning, and I'll get back at it Thursday. The Custodian had trouble at 2 different key points in his last. At the 1/4 pole when he was looking for room to position himself for the stretch run, and again around the 3/16th pole as he was getting in a spot to set down. He started his finish, which was a solid stretch run, much too late to influence the race. A clean trip and he will be around the wire.

#7 The Custodian (A-)