Big A Today

[pandy]

Some interesting races at Aqueduct today. When I looked at the NYRA picks, I was surprised to see that all three NYRA handicappers are firmly against two horses that I thought looked like probable winners today. I had to re-check my work.

In the 4th, I thought that Moonlight Fastasy raced well dueling along a dull rail on a closer's track, and it was her third straight improved performance and a new pace top. She is also well bred for an off track and goes inside-out with a better post. There are two second time starters in the race and either could improve, so it's not an easy spot for M.F.

In the 7th, Sean And Matt came off a 9 month layoff. There were only 3 dirt races that day and it did seem somewhat speed favoring. But I loved the way Sean And Matt took the lead then ripped off a :22.3 second quarter, then, when a horse challenged him, he drew off. He showed nothing in his first two career starts, then turned in this sharp win in his third career start off a long layoff, so it looks like something must have been bothering him last year. He is also well bred for an off track.

Both races are interesting handicapping contests.

[Robert Fischer]

having my coffee here

I plan on playing along with the Big A today.

[Redboard]

Will be a slopfest, it's pouring there now and should be all day.

[Robert Fischer]

Do you think we are going to see a speed bias today?

[pandy]

It's interesting, but for some reason not all of the sealed sloppy or muddy tracks in N.Y. the past few months have been speed favoring. It used to be automatic. Now, even when it's sealed, you have to watch the first few races. And, it could change. We saw last Saturday at Santa Anita, the track was very speed favoring and sealed early but as it dried out and got cut up a bit more it was much fairer later in the card.

They do a very good job maintaining fair and balanced tracks at NYRA. Too bad tracks like Gulfstream, Monmouth, and Santa Anita can't seem to get it under control.

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/track_bias.htm

[Robert Fischer]

I'm gonna give the first race a pass too.

Slightly interesting that the :6: Kiss Cat is taking similar doubles action to the :3:, while in the exacta pools under the favored :7: - the :6: is showing a little bit of value.

And the :7: is being bet heavily on the precept of being claimed (off Dutrow) by Jacobson.

...

[Robert Fischer]

It will be interesting to see if Jacobson can turn the :7: around.
She tends to get the worst of it at the break, starting at a tactical disadvantage.
She's also a bit herky-jerky in the stretch.
She is however, the best animal in the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Better start today, needed every bit of class to grind out the win.

-Good try by the 1 also, who had some unexpected money as a wire threat.

[Robert Fischer]

:4: Matties' filly may be able to run a bit in the 2nd.

Another passed race for me.

[pandy]

He's always been a bettor.

[Robert Fischer]

He's always been a bettor.

he gave it a good shot

so far we've had two races, and two minor betting coups with wire-to-wire tries (:1: in the 1st race, and :4: in the 2nd race).

Both contended for the win, and both were beaten in mid-deep stretch.

Still very tough to say much regarding bias due to the relatively low class, and the amount of unknown factors in the first two races today.

Certainly doesn't look bad to be in front today.

[Robert Fischer]

r3 - looks like the question is whether the :5: is over her soreness issues or not.

[Robert Fischer]

arrgh the late money squeezed all the juice out of my :5: in the plc/shw pools.

[Robert Fischer]

In the 4th, I thought that Moonlight Fastasy raced well dueling along a dull rail on a closer's track, and it was her third straight improved performance and a new pace top. She is also well bred for an off track and goes inside-out with a better post. There are two second time starters in the race and either could improve, so it's not an easy spot for M.F.


She looks tough.(vs grain last) The :9: looks tough too...

I think I am going to bet both in a small dutch, if the prices hold.(dropping on the 9 as I type this)

------

post race - tough break with your :8: on that trip. Could be solid next out with a better trip if you like the horse.

[pandy]

Matt's TVG pick, 19-1. I'll look for Moonlight Fantasy with another rider next time, hopefully a return to front running style.

[Robert Fischer]

I think Rubindy is the best here.

I'm betting Rubindy.

[Robert Fischer]

That sure was a "dud".

Not much energy by the jock whatsoever in what evolved into a fairly bunched finish underneath.
Filly must have hated the surface, and thrown in the towel early.

[Tall One]

Afternoon, guys...

7TH...lets go with the :1: who will no doubt continue to drop (5-1 currently)


Second off (both in the off going), and like the turnback to 6 1/2.

[pandy]

Sean And Matt left at the post, ran huge. Oh well, no racing luck today.

[Robert Fischer]

Sean And Matt left at the post, ran huge. Oh well, no racing luck today.
tough one, indeed.

Maybe if you like those horses, they'll be a better price next time.

I've had a rough day too. Chipped around early, whiffed on Rubindy in the 5th, and my ADW was down when I wanted to put something on the Rodriguez chalk in the 6th.:D

[Stillriledup]

Haven't seen any A races today, how's the bias over there? Speed every race, or are closers getting there?

[Robert Fischer]

Looks speed-favoring to me , but not outrageously so.

I'd like my guy on the lead, or right up in touch w/ any cheap speed, and off the rail today. A couple times today a horse was in the pocket(normally a pretty good place to sit) and maybe appeared to be bothered by the slop.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks RF.

[Stillriledup]

Looks speed-favoring to me , but not outrageously so.

I'd like my guy on the lead, or right up in touch w/ any cheap speed, and off the rail today. A couple times today a horse was in the pocket(normally a pretty good place to sit) and maybe appeared to be bothered by the slop.

Looked like the inner lanes in the stretch were slow, the top 2 were out in the middle of the track and the 2 and 5 who were looming to at least finish 3rd, were beaten by much more distance than it appeared they would be beaten by turning for home.

[Robert Fischer]

Good day to have some horse and get in the clear.

[pandy]

I need Great Cross for the double, last bet of day.