NBA Betting

[lansdale]

Seems a little early in the season for this, but somebody pulled my coat on this game so thought I'd post. Taking the over in tonight's Cavs vs. Blazers. Line opened at 202, now ca. 206. Both of these teams have shooters and not much D.

[Tall One]

Seems a little early in the season for this, but somebody pulled my coat on this game so thought I'd post. Taking the over in tonight's Cavs vs. Blazers. Line opened at 202, now ca. 206. Both of these teams have shooters and not much D.



Saw this line, and thought it was ripe too:


Charlotte Hornets v New Orleans Pelicans


New Orleans Pelicans -4

[Speed Figure]

The over 212.5 in the Laker - Phoenix game looks good! the Lakers give up 118 points per game.

[horses4courses]

Seems a little early in the season for this, but somebody pulled my coat on this game so thought I'd post. Taking the over in tonight's Cavs vs. Blazers. Line opened at 202, now ca. 206. Both of these teams have shooters and not much D.

I gave up betting NBA over 20 years ago, and am not about to start again.

One thing I do recall, though, and that's about taking the worst of the number.
Seldom a good experience.

Something about weddings and funerals.... :lol:

Best of luck, though ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Orlando +11

[lamboguy]

I gave up betting NBA over 20 years ago, and am not about to start again.

One thing I do recall, though, and that's about taking the worst of the number.
Seldom a good experience.

Something about weddings and funerals.... :lol:

Best of luck, though ;)
you are so correct on betting bad lines.

i have a great story from years ago before they made the lines with computers, there was a line called the Outlaw Line that came out early in the morning the day before the real came out on basketball. the MGM hotel would book the next days college basketball games at 6:00 p.m. the night before the games. i used to study the lines and wait for what i thought was a mistake that the line maker made. one day i saw the Outlaw Line come out on Florida being an 8 point favorite against Miami. i made my own line as Florida 26. Miami had beaten Florida 3 weeks prior, but Florida had 3 of their starters out that day. i got to the MGM that day 3 hours before they opened their windows to make sure i was the first in line. by the time the windows opened there must have been 200 people in line and i was the first one! they only took $300 a bet and moved the number. so i bet Florida -8, they changed the line to -9, i bet again, then they changed it to -10, i bet it again, the next time they upped it to -12, i bet it again, then they jumped to -14, then -16 then -18, i stopped when they reached -20. i went to the Stardust Hotel the next day because they were the first to put up a college line the day of the game, sure enough they opened that game up at -26.

those were the good old day when you could catch them, today i think its impossible.

[horses4courses]

you are so correct on betting bad lines.

i have a great story from years ago before they made the lines with computers, there was a line called the Outlaw Line that came out early in the morning the day before the real came out on basketball. the MGM hotel would book the next days college basketball games at 6:00 p.m. the night before the games. i used to study the lines and wait for what i thought was a mistake that the line maker made. one day i saw the Outlaw Line come out on Florida being an 8 point favorite against Miami. i made my own line as Florida 26. Miami had beaten Florida 3 weeks prior, but Florida had 3 of their starters out that day. i got to the MGM that day 3 hours before they opened their windows to make sure i was the first in line. by the time the windows opened there must have been 200 people in line and i was the first one! they only took $300 a bet and moved the number. so i bet Florida -8, they changed the line to -9, i bet again, then they changed it to -10, i bet it again, the next time they upped it to -12, i bet it again, then they jumped to -14, then -16 then -18, i stopped when they reached -20. i went to the Stardust Hotel the next day because they were the first to put up a college line the day of the game, sure enough they opened that game up at -26.

those were the good old day when you could catch them, today i think its impossible.

Good story, lambo :ThmbUp:

You're right.....computers and the internet have changed the business.
Mostly for the better, but it can make a person long for "back in the day".

[Stillriledup]

Weds the Clippers are at GS. Not sure what the line is going to be, but the Clippers stink right now, i'd lay the points. I won't lay 6 or 7 but if the spread is GS -4 or less, GS might be an ok pick in this spot.

[Canarsie]

Weds the Clippers are at GS. Not sure what the line is going to be, but the Clippers stink right now, i'd lay the points. I won't lay 6 or 7 but if the spread is GS -4 or less, GS might be an ok pick in this spot.

L.A. Clippers 3 1 0.750 0.5 3-1 1-1 2-1 1-0 3-1 W 1

If you said they were playing lousy (you didn't) and they were ripe to get beat that is another story. Last time I looked 3-1 equals 60-20 with two games in hand. The lousy playing clippers would sign up for this right now if they could play this type of "stinky" basketball all season long.

[lamboguy]

Weds the Clippers are at GS. Not sure what the line is going to be, but the Clippers stink right now, i'd lay the points. I won't lay 6 or 7 but if the spread is GS -4 or less, GS might be an ok pick in this spot.its really the same in horse racing today as well for the most part. the batch bettors that can see pools that we can't take the value out of the bets that we make except for real large handle days like triple crown races and breeders cup. the boss here proved in the breeders cup that you can win betting 5 horses to win in a race, try that on a wednesday afternoon at the Big A and you will go to the poor house.

[lansdale]

Seems a little early in the season for this, but somebody pulled my coat on this game so thought I'd post. Taking the over in tonight's Cavs vs. Blazers. Line opened at 202, now ca. 206. Both of these teams have shooters and not much D.

Although this bet was off, the thing about this game that truly astonished me was Lebron's no-show - one of the three or four worst games I've ever seen him play. He was moving very slowly and never seemed to get more than six inches off the ground. Either he has a chronic injury, per the rumors during the summer, or he's involved in a a power struggle with either Irving, Blatt, or both. I guess in another couple of weeks, we'll have an answer.

[Stillriledup]

L.A. Clippers 3 1 0.750 0.5 3-1 1-1 2-1 1-0 3-1 W 1

If you said they were playing lousy (you didn't) and they were ripe to get beat that is another story. Last time I looked 3-1 equals 60-20 with two games in hand. The lousy playing clippers would sign up for this right now if they could play this type of "stinky" basketball all season long.

They're playing lousy for THEM. Chris Paul was interviewed the other night and let out a big sigh and said "we gotta get better" and the way he said it he knows they've been lousy. They have been grinding out wins and just getting there on talent, but i've seen 98% of all their games in the Griffin era and this team right now isn't nearly what they're going to need to be to be considered an elite team. The time is now to get against them, esp with their record indicating that nothing is really wrong.

[cj]

Interesting strategy by Doc tonight refusing to call a timeout while the Clippers are being taken to the woodshed. He looks really pissed.

[BetHorses!]

Seems a little early in the season for this, but somebody pulled my coat on this game so thought I'd post. Taking the over in tonight's Cavs vs. Blazers. Line opened at 202, now ca. 206. Both of these teams have shooters and not much D.


The sharps are on these sides at these prices tonight


Hawks +1.5

Wizards +3.5

[Stillriledup]

Weds the Clippers are at GS. Not sure what the line is going to be, but the Clippers stink right now, i'd lay the points. I won't lay 6 or 7 but if the spread is GS -4 or less, GS might be an ok pick in this spot.

1-0.

[BetHorses!]

Warriors closed at -5 that night

[Stillriledup]

Warriors closed at -5 that night

Wow, right on the fence!

[cj]

Weds the Clippers are at GS. Not sure what the line is going to be, but the Clippers stink right now, i'd lay the points. I won't lay 6 or 7 but if the spread is GS -4 or less, GS might be an ok pick in this spot.

-5 is not -4 or less. Well, in math it is, but not the way you meant it.

[Stillriledup]

-5 is not -4 or less. Well, in math it is, but not the way you meant it.

Depends on how you look at it. Said i wouldn't lay 6.

So, you know, its tricky.

[cj]

Depends on how you look at it. Said i wouldn't lay 6.

So, you know, its tricky.

It isn't tricky, it is trying to claim a win that wasn't.

"Ticket not a winner"

[Stillriledup]

It isn't tricky, it is trying to claim a win that wasn't.

"Ticket not a winner"

:lol:

I don't need this winner to have a winning season at NBA.

I'll still have many more winners than losers when all is said and done.

Hopefully someone cashed on this info.

0-0.

[Canarsie]

:lol:

I don't need this winner to have a winning season at NBA.

I'll still have many more winners than losers when all is said and done.

Hopefully someone cashed on this info.

0-0.

Easy to pick winners with "monopoly" money. If sw is implemented in NJ maybe you can fly out there and make your first "real" sports wager in 2014.

Ok I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you bet on the super bowl.

[Robert Fischer]

Never tried much handicapping the NBA.

Maybe some one can "steer me right"?

Point spread just seems so tough on most NBA games.
We're talking 5points for the point spread, for games that total 200pts.

In football you get the same 5pts, for games that total 50pts.

[cj]

Never tried much handicapping the NBA.

Maybe some one can "steer me right"?

Point spread just seems so tough on most NBA games.
We're talking 5points for the point spread, for games that total 200pts.

In football you get the same 5pts, for games that total 50pts.

Five points is less than a single touchdown.

[Stillriledup]

Easy to pick winners with "monopoly" money. If sw is implemented in NJ maybe you can fly out there and make your first "real" sports wager in 2014.

Ok I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you bet on the super bowl.

So i ESSENTIALLY gave out a winner, or at the very worst, gave out information that may have pointed you to a winner or at very least, prevented you from betting on a loser and this is the treatment i get?

If Michael Jordan wanted to come to your house to teach you how to shoot hoops in your driveway, would you tell him that you doubt he's ever really played basketball before? Cmon now.

[Canarsie]

So i ESSENTIALLY gave out a winner, or at the very worst, gave out information that may have pointed you to a winner or at very least, prevented you from betting on a loser and this is the treatment i get?

If Michael Jordan wanted to come to your house to teach you how to shoot hoops in your driveway, would you tell him that you doubt he's ever really played basketball before? Cmon now.

I would lap up every little increment of knowledge he would share with me what does that have to do with you? Your the one who kept on posting that basketball was fixed and the games are predetermined.

Why don't you go as far back as you want with your magic keyboard and see if I criticized any other individual for their picks.

Last year I FINISHED 32nd out f more than 348,000 entrants in Yahoo NBA basketball picks. You know what that got me??? SQUADOOSH. I never even mentioned it before here because it has no lines to use, just pick the winning team. You can sign up and we can go head on I'll do a screenshot of where I stand now. Once again especially since you are really wagering on these NBA games $50 from the loser donated to the PDJF. Every time a fun wager for a great cause is mentioned you run around like a headless chicken. Surely a man with the basketball expertise you "brag" about here wouldn't BE AFRAID of stomping on a "dummy" like me.

Balls in your court but my hunch is that a traveling "violation" on you has already been called.

[Stillriledup]

Clippers are a mess right now, their last 2 losses were ugly visually. They're back home and will probably win tonight, but 11.5 seems like a lot of points for them right now. Det sneakily has won their last 2 games, maybe the Pistons can keep it close?

[cj]

Clippers are a mess right now, their last 2 losses were ugly visually. They're back home and will probably win tonight, but 11.5 seems like a lot of points for them right now. Det sneakily has won their last 2 games, maybe the Pistons can keep it close?

So are you picking the Pistons?

[Rise Over Run]

So are you picking the Pistons?
Patience. His official selection will be revealed early tomorrow morning.

[Stillriledup]

So are you picking the Pistons?

:D


You mean i can't get pat myself on the back tomorrow if they cover and ignore this thread if they don't?

Ok, lets go with the Pistons as an official selection.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Clippers are a mess right now, their last 2
losses were ugly visually. They're back home and will probably win tonight, but
11.5 seems like a lot of points for them right now. Det sneakily has won their
last 2 games, maybe the Pistons can keep it close?


You can't have your cake and eat it too. C'mon SRU, man up and bet the money-line Detroit +750.....

[Stillriledup]

You can't have your cake and eat it too. C'mon SRU, man up and bet the money-line Detroit +750.....

Its hard to take the ML here, i mean, how many games in a row is LAC going to lose?

[cj]

I missed the game...update?

[Stillriledup]

I missed the game...update?

Chris Douglas Roberts saved the day for LAC. Detroit was about to cover :lol: and CDR hit a 3 pt shot with 3 and change left in game to make a dwindling 14 pt lead to 17.

Detroit rolled over and never really tried, so, it was kindof a bad pick. Onward and upward.

0-1

[Valuist]

Great angle play coming up this Thursday; play on OKC and against Golden State.

Angle: this holds true in NBA, NFL and MLB (probably NHL too); when a team has an extended winning streak (8 games or more) and finally sees it end, they are a go-against in the next game as there is a bit of a letdown, not to mention their own power ratings get overextended. GS saw their 16 game win streak come to a close and will be in this predicament Thurs vs OKC

[Stillriledup]

Im coming back against LAC tonight. Take Pacers +11.

0-1

[cj]

Im coming back against LAC tonight. Take Pacers +11.

0-1

I know what you are doing, trying to mush the Clippers to victory by going against them.

[Stillriledup]

I know what you are doing, trying to mush the Clippers to victory by going against them.

I don't need to mush them as 11 pt favorites vs a team they're supposed to beat, i'm not going to pull out the mush card vs Detroit.

However, when OKC comes into town..... :D

[Stillriledup]

I missed the Clipper game last night, Any updates?

[Robert Fischer]

I missed the Clipper game last night, Any updates?

shameful call for recognition
shameful i tell ya -_-

CLIPPERS 102
PACERS 100 !

Good call! You won the bet and your team won!

[ReplayRandall]

Great angle play coming up this Thursday; play on OKC and against Golden State.

Angle: this holds true in NBA, NFL and MLB (probably NHL too); when a team has an extended winning streak (8 games or more) and finally sees it end, they are a go-against in the next game as there is a bit of a letdown, not to mention their own power ratings get overextended. GS saw their 16 game win streak come to a close and will be in this predicament Thurs vs OKC


I agree that OKC is the play, Money-line +125.....

[Stillriledup]

shameful call for recognition
shameful i tell ya -_-

CLIPPERS 102
PACERS 100 !

Good call! You won the bet and your team won!

Thanks RF!

Win Win all the way around. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Nice call, didn't see it either, just saw they won by two.

Big trade with Rondo going to Dallas, West gets stronger, pathetic East gets weaker.

[Stillriledup]

I agree that OKC is the play, Money-line +125.....

I like this pick, GL RR (and CJ)!

(and no, its not an official selection by me, i'm happy being 1-1 at this point!)

[cj]

I like this pick, GL RR (and CJ)!

(and no, its not an official selection by me, i'm happy being 1-1 at this point!)

Stop trying to mush my team.

[Stillriledup]

Stop trying to mush my team.

Um, you forgot the little laughing icon because i know you were kidding.

I'm red hot, i'm 1 for my last 1, you should want me on board.

Ride the Wave!

[Robert Fischer]

Entertaining game tonight!

Durant with a strong 1st half.
30pts on 7freethrows and 13field goal attempts!!
Does he have his legs under him to do it again in the 2nd?

BOTH of these teams playing good ball.

Stephen Curry jacked up 8 3s in the first half. -As he should! He's nailed 4 of them. Quickest release in the game, and he doesn't need a perfect spoon-fed look.

17/32 1st half 3pt attempts total between both teams.

Smart basketball. Efficient Offensive basketball. Star Power...

Really nice game.

[Robert Fischer]

Durant out with a scare after he slightly turned the ankle near his former stress fracture.

Hope he's OK

Westbrook will try to carry the team now.

not much added defense to make up for the loss of Durant...

[Robert Fischer]

Big trade with Rondo going to Dallas, West gets stronger, pathetic East gets weaker.
Rondo is legit.

Brandan Wright: he's a guy who could use more minutes. (20th in win shares, 3rd in the NBA in WS/48min)

Not a bad deal, especially in terms of nerd-stats.

[cj]

KD listed day to day, not playing tonight.

[Stillriledup]

KD listed day to day, not playing tonight.

Sorry for mushing him, i know its my fault he got hurt. I'll take the blame. :(

[Stillriledup]

Picking the Clippers tonight +35.5

Hopefully they can keep it close. :D

1-1

(spread courtesy of www.cbssports.com)

[cj]

Picking the Clippers tonight +35.5

Hopefully they can keep it close. :D

1-1

(spread courtesy of www.cbssports.com)

1-2 now? Obviously the line wasn't 35.5.

[Stillriledup]

1-2 now? Obviously the line wasn't 35.5.

It wouldnt be 1-2 since i don't know what the real line is, i'm not going to give them out in the midst of a ridiculous travel schedule...so, if you don't want to honor 35.5 (like the website said) i can live with that.

But, it is Xmas, so....maybe you can give me this win? +35.5 was a winner. :D

1-1

[cj]

It wouldnt be 1-2 since i don't know what the real line is, i'm not going to give them out in the midst of a ridiculous travel schedule...so, if you don't want to honor 35.5 (like the website said) i can live with that.

But, it is Xmas, so....maybe you can give me this win? +35.5 was a winner. :D

1-1

Line was Spurs -1.

[Stillriledup]

Line was Spurs -1.

I would have never guessed, i would have thought it would have been much higher.

[Robert Fischer]

Big game for Thompson last night.
Varejao OUT FOR THE SEASON (torn achilles).

Stay tuned to see if the NBA finds a way to give the Cavs another big man.

[Robert Fischer]

Josh Smith to the Rockets
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/1224/nba_g_hardjosh_608x342.jpg

This guy has been a terrible shooter with an inflated ego, but he is a good athlete and a veteran in the league.

If he somehow humbles himself and takes less shots he could be a big addition. Doesn't seem too likely.

[cj]

Varejao OUT FOR THE SEASON (torn achilles).

Stay tuned to see if the NBA finds a way to give the Cavs another big man.

He was a guy that always came up at the trade deadline with the Thunder, and I'm really glad it never came to be. The guy is just always hurt.

[cj]

Josh Smith to the Rockets
This guy has been a terrible shooter with an inflated ego, but he is a good athlete and a veteran in the league.

If he somehow humbles himself and takes less shots he could be a big addition. Doesn't seem too likely.

Howard and Josh Smith together, what could possibly go wrong? :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Howard and Josh Smith together, what could possibly go wrong? :lol:
:cool:

To be honest, I feel like the Rockets have over-achieved.
I give credit to Harden and coach Kevin McHale.

When they got Lin and Howard, I said "These moves are positive financially, but dubious in terms of team-building.".

No offense to Lin, it was just after he was hyped in NY as some sort of all-star that he is not, and how Houston still has the Yao/Asian market share flowing.

But they have played respectable basketball.

I probably echo your sentiments on Josh Smith.

[Stillriledup]

:cool:

To be honest, I feel like the Rockets have over-achieved.
I give credit to Harden and coach Kevin McHale.

When they got Lin and Howard, I said "These moves are positive financially, but dubious in terms of team-building.".

No offense to Lin, it was just after he was hyped in NY as some sort of all-star that he is not, and how Houston still has the Yao/Asian market share flowing.

But they have played respectable basketball.

I probably echo your sentiments on Josh Smith.

Rockets have this "moneyball" style GM, and maybe the theory is if there's a good player that you can get, you get him, even if chemistry suffers.

Can a bunch of "individuals" go all the way to the title?

Its a really fine line to get players good enough to win and yet, at the same time, have chemistry where not everyone is an "individual superstar" and get guys to play for the TEAM and not themselves.

[Robert Fischer]

Trevor Ariza (the guy who was starting at SF for HOU) is having a good year offensively.

He stretches the floor, and his overall numbers are efficient in terms of shooting.

[cj]

Trevor Ariza (the guy who was starting at SF for HOU) is having a good year offensively.

He stretches the floor, and his overall numbers are efficient in terms of shooting.

Smith will play the 4.

[Stillriledup]

Lets try and sweep the card tomorrow. (spreads taken from Pinnacle)

Wiz -5 at Knicks.

No writeup other than to say i'm hoping the Knicks will realize they're the Knicks.

(passing this one, no mushing CJ's team allowed)

Heat +5.5

I think that being embarrassed by Pha might wake these guys up a bit, Let me grab the 5.5 and hold my breath.

LAC -2 vs GS

GS lost to the Lakers in a flat game the other night, not sure what that was about, hopefully that continues.

Current yearly total: 1-1

[Robert Fischer]

Smith will play the 4.

Good call.

[Stillriledup]

Lets try and sweep the card tomorrow. (spreads taken from Pinnacle)

Wiz -5 at Knicks.

No writeup other than to say i'm hoping the Knicks will realize they're the Knicks.

(passing this one, no mushing CJ's team allowed)

Heat +5.5

I think that being embarrassed by Pha might wake these guys up a bit, Let me grab the 5.5 and hold my breath.

LAC -2 vs GS

GS lost to the Lakers in a flat game the other night, not sure what that was about, hopefully that continues.

Current yearly total: 1-1

:lol:

That's the funniest thing ive ever seen. You're my hero! lol

[Robert Fischer]

Chicago -11.5

[Stillriledup]

Lets try and sweep the card tomorrow. (spreads taken from Pinnacle)

Wiz -5 at Knicks.

No writeup other than to say i'm hoping the Knicks will realize they're the Knicks.

(passing this one, no mushing CJ's team allowed)

Heat +5.5

I think that being embarrassed by Pha might wake these guys up a bit, Let me grab the 5.5 and hold my breath.

LAC -2 vs GS

GS lost to the Lakers in a flat game the other night, not sure what that was about, hopefully that continues.

Current yearly total: 1-1

GGXzlRoNtHU

[cj]

Nice day, up to 4-1!

[Stillriledup]

Nice day, up to 4-1!

Thank you, mucho appreciado!

(not that it could have been 5-1 or anything.. :D )

[cj]

Thank you, mucho appreciado!

(not that it could have been 5-1 or anything.. :D )

Had I allowed that pick to stand, Thunder would have undoubtedly lost AND not covered.

Seriously though, you never had to sweat one of these.

[Stillriledup]

Had I allowed that pick to stand, Thunder would have undoubtedly lost AND not covered.

Seriously though, you never had to sweat one of these.

I KNEW you were going to say that and you know what?

You're probably right. :D

On my picks though, i made it look easy.

Don't you have any harder basketball leagues to handicap?

(I just mushed myself, now i'll lose 5 in a row!)

[Robert Fischer]

First half of b-ball w/ HOU, and Josh Smith leads the team in shots...

[Robert Fischer]

First half of b-ball w/ HOU, and Josh Smith leads the team in shots...
Smith finishes 9 of 21 shot attempts and 3 for 3 from the free throw line.

His shot selection actually wasn't that terrible.
http://oi58.tinypic.com/28m0dcj.jpg
Discount that long 3-point shot from the top of the key - that was a buzzer beater to end the first quarter.

In terms of shot distance alone, he basically only took 2 obviously bad attempts.

Dwight Howard had one of his 'disappearing act' nights, and Houston still won. Jury is still out on the Rockets.

[Stillriledup]

Lotsa defense being played in this Clipper Raptor game, wow, check out this score :D

Oops, cbs sports line had it listed as 69-66 in the SECOND quarter, its really the 3rd quarter. Idiots. These are the same clowns that told me SA was a 35.5 pt favorite over LAC the other day.

:D

[ronsmac]

GGXzlRoNtHU
Good music pick. Not that I care for the song much, but I love the confidence and ego.

[cj]

Lotsa defense being played in this Clipper Raptor game, wow, check out this score :D

Oops, cbs sports line had it listed as 69-66 in the SECOND quarter, its really the 3rd quarter. Idiots. These are the same clowns that told me SA was a 35.5 pt favorite over LAC the other day.

:D


That is a pretty surprising beat down at home.

[Stillriledup]

That is a pretty surprising beat down at home.

Not really i was going to be on the Raptors here as an official release, but didnt realize the game was afternoon, so i missed out on another winner. I thought they left a lot of emotion to beat GS the other day, was thinking this was a letdown spot, Toronto played great and they're a pretty good team in real life, sometimes team's just can't miss, that's what happened here today.

onward and upward, here are a few official picks for tonight.

Minny +18 at GS
Gosh, this is a LOT of points, GS seemed flat in LA and didn't really "show up" in a big rivalry game, hoping they're on a little down trend here, grabbing the 18 and holding my breath. More of an anti GS pick than a pro minny pick.

Sac -6.5

Not sure why Knicks only getting 6.5, but i feel obligated to bite.

Memphis -2.5 at Miami

Heat coming off win vs Cleve, but didn't look especially good in this game, not all that impressive, and they did lose to Pha, you figured they would be "up" for Lebron on Xmas, so i toss that game out and go back to a team that blew a huge lead to a very bad team. This spread should be more, not sure why so low, but ill take a shot here anyway.

[Stillriledup]

Good music pick. Not that I care for the song much, but I love the confidence and ego.

Just having some fun while i'm still north of .500 in my selections! :D

[cj]

Not really i was going to be on the Raptors here as an official release, but didnt realize the game was afternoon, so i missed out on another winner. I thought they left a lot of emotion to beat GS the other day, was thinking this was a letdown spot, Toronto played great and they're a pretty good team in real life, sometimes team's just can't miss, that's what happened here today.

onward and upward, here are a few official picks for tonight.

Minny +18 at GS
Gosh, this is a LOT of points, GS seemed flat in LA and didn't really "show up" in a big rivalry game, hoping they're on a little down trend here, grabbing the 18 and holding my breath. More of an anti GS pick than a pro minny pick.

Sac -6.5

Not sure why Knicks only getting 6.5, but i feel obligated to bite.

Memphis -2.5 at Miami

Heat coming off win vs Cleve, but didn't look especially good in this game, not all that impressive, and they did lose to Pha, you figured they would be "up" for Lebron on Xmas, so i toss that game out and go back to a team that blew a huge lead to a very bad team. This spread should be more, not sure why so low, but ill take a shot here anyway.

I like the last two, I'd abstain on the first. 18 is too much for me in the NBA, too much garbage time at the end against bad teams for my blood.

[Robert Fischer]

I was just praising the clippers as title contenders...
Then I saw them win against Golden State on Christmas and they looked weak.

Griffin looked lost in the pick and roll. Paul looked passive. Neither the coach or Paul were able to get things organized. They still won.

These teams all seem to have great records, and the guys get their stats, but I don't see the quality.

It looks wide open, and whoever is playing good ball in the playoffs will do well.

Maybe I am being too critical. After all, these teams and players, are satisfied with their big numbers.

[Stillriledup]

I like the last two, I'd abstain on the first. 18 is too much for me in the NBA, too much garbage time at the end against bad teams for my blood.

Here's what happens when you get up to 18. If GS is ahead by 25 with 4 mins left, they rest everyone....but Minny keeps playing, so even if they are ahead by that many, you still have some sort of backdoor shot.

I also think that in order to win by 18 or more, you have to really play hard for the entire game. Are these guys going to play a hard 48 after going thru the motions in a hated rivalry game?

I know its really hard mentally to pick a team who "never wins" but at 18, i'm going to bite.

[Stillriledup]

I was just praising the clippers as title contenders...
Then I saw them win against Golden State on Christmas and they looked weak.

Griffin looked lost in the pick and roll. Paul looked small and passive. Neither the coach or Paul were able to get things organized.

These teams all seem to have great records, and the guys get their stats, but I don't see the quality.

It looks wide open, and whoever is playing good ball in the playoffs will do well.

Maybe I am being too critical. After all, these teams and players, are satisfied with their big numbers.

For what its worth, they haven't had ONE practice in a month. Their schedule has been hectic, they're tired and just all over the place. They won that game on guts and effort, they were all over the place for sure.

They're weak benchwise, but doc has been doing something smart, what he did last year was take all the starters out and put in all the backups, so the entire backup crew would play together..Now, he integrating 2 or 3 backups and resting the starters in a rolling kind of way....so, you'll always have someone out there from the first team....he has no confidence in the backups to hold the fort if all 5 are out there. Hawes might be the best backup they have and he's on the sidelines right now.

They still need a Kendrick Perkins/Kenyon Martin type of player, but i dont know who's out there and available that fits that bill that they can go get.

[Robert Fischer]

For what its worth, they haven't had ONE practice in a month. Their schedule has been hectic, they're tired and just all over the place. They won that game on guts and effort, they were all over the place for sure.

They're weak benchwise, but doc has been doing something smart, what he did last year was take all the starters out and put in all the backups, so the entire backup crew would play together..Now, he integrating 2 or 3 backups and resting the starters in a rolling kind of way....so, you'll always have someone out there from the first team....he has no confidence in the backups to hold the fort if all 5 are out there. Hawes might be the best backup they have and he's on the sidelines right now.

They still need a Kendrick Perkins/Kenyon Martin type of player, but i dont know who's out there and available that fits that bill that they can go get.

Those are strong points. I think for now, I will view them as a team with a high ceiling, but also a 'base-rate' that puts them a notch below a champion.

The way the league is now... There are all these teams with 'great' records, and then there are probably 10 really weak teams.

You almost have to consider treating the weak teams as 'sparring partners' and perfect your execution on offense and defense against those teams in preparation for the real teams.

Sometimes the Spurs give the impression that they don't care if they lose 5 games a year due to resting starters and working out the kinks.

Overall, it's a players' league, and the idea is to hype up the action.

[cj]

For what its worth, they haven't had ONE practice in a month. Their schedule has been hectic, they're tired and just all over the place. They won that game on guts and effort, they were all over the place for sure.

They're weak benchwise, but doc has been doing something smart, what he did last year was take all the starters out and put in all the backups, so the entire backup crew would play together..Now, he integrating 2 or 3 backups and resting the starters in a rolling kind of way....so, you'll always have someone out there from the first team....he has no confidence in the backups to hold the fort if all 5 are out there. Hawes might be the best backup they have and he's on the sidelines right now.

They still need a Kendrick Perkins/Kenyon Martin type of player, but i dont know who's out there and available that fits that bill that they can go get.

Don't forget to trot out the "everybody tries harder against the Clippers than any team in the history of basketball" excuse too.

[Robert Fischer]

Don't forget to trot out the "everybody tries harder against the Clippers than any team in the history of basketball" excuse too.

yea...
These teams are all gunning for the Clippers with a chip on their shoulder.:rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

Don't forget to trot out the "everybody tries harder against the Clippers than any team in the history of basketball" excuse too.

That's understood, i didn't think i had to keep harping on that. ;)

[Stillriledup]

yea...
These teams are all gunning for the Clippers with a chip on their shoulder.:rolleyes:

I didn't realize you watch all the Clippers games.

Welcome to the nation. :ThmbUp:

[banacek]

That is a pretty surprising beat down at home.

No love for the Raptors? They are 23-7 :)

[Stillriledup]

Not really i was going to be on the Raptors here as an official release, but didnt realize the game was afternoon, so i missed out on another winner. I thought they left a lot of emotion to beat GS the other day, was thinking this was a letdown spot, Toronto played great and they're a pretty good team in real life, sometimes team's just can't miss, that's what happened here today.

onward and upward, here are a few official picks for tonight.

Minny +18 at GS
Gosh, this is a LOT of points, GS seemed flat in LA and didn't really "show up" in a big rivalry game, hoping they're on a little down trend here, grabbing the 18 and holding my breath. More of an anti GS pick than a pro minny pick.

Sac -6.5

Not sure why Knicks only getting 6.5, but i feel obligated to bite.

Memphis -2.5 at Miami

Heat coming off win vs Cleve, but didn't look especially good in this game, not all that impressive, and they did lose to Pha, you figured they would be "up" for Lebron on Xmas, so i toss that game out and go back to a team that blew a huge lead to a very bad team. This spread should be more, not sure why so low, but ill take a shot here anyway.


kPgPrtOxvK4

[cj]

No crying about a tough beat down the road after that Kings win!

[Stillriledup]

No crying about a tough beat down the road after that Kings win!

I got drilled at the buzzer by a backdoor 3 pt shot to lose an official selection that i should have won and i was on the right side. Woe is me! :( :( :(

[cj]

I got drilled at the buzzer by a backdoor 3 pt shot to lose an official selection that i should have won and i was on the right side. Woe is me! :( :( :(

My bad, I thought it was 5.5, but really only OT saved you anyway. I wasn't trying to be a d---, though you got the lucky cover.

[Stillriledup]

My bad, I thought it was 5.5, but really only OT saved you anyway. I wasn't trying to be a d---, though you got the lucky cover.
I probably "won" or pushed, but when i give out a pick i go by the spread that i list in my writeup, bad beat for me that this line came down a bit from what i saw. Now, if it was never ever 6.5 at any point, maybe i'll accept a push for my troubles. ;)

[Stillriledup]

One official pick for Dec 29th.

Wizz +4.5 at Rockets

Hou coming off two western conference games vs good teams, now they come home vs an out of conference foe, letdown is possible. Hou can be had at home these days by almost anyone, as recent results suggest.

Current season record: 6-2

[Stillriledup]

One official pick for Dec 29th.

Wizz +4.5 at Rockets

Hou coming off two western conference games vs good teams, now they come home vs an out of conference foe, letdown is possible. Hou can be had at home these days by almost anyone, as recent results suggest.

Current season record: 6-2

pipTwjwrQYQ

7-2

[Stillriledup]

Currently NINE and two, not 7-2 as the previous post suggests. Not sure how i lost 2 winners overnight. :D

One official selection for Jan 1st

Minny +3.5 vs Sac

Wolves lost many in a row, but they've been competitive in a bunch of their games recently, i think they're in a better place mentally than Sacramento, who almost lost a game to the Knicks the other day at home. Lets go with the Wolves and some home cooking on New Years day. Also, this is a team with some injuries to key players, allegedly, those key players were around the team and are really close to getting back to practice, a little moral boost if you will.

[cj]

Currently NINE and two, not 7-2 as the previous post suggests. Not sure how i lost 2 winners overnight. :D

One official selection for Jan 1st

Minny +3.5 vs Sac

Wolves lost many in a row, but they've been competitive in a bunch of their games recently, i think they're in a better place mentally than Sacramento, who almost lost a game to the Knicks the other day at home. Lets go with the Wolves and some home cooking on New Years day. Also, this is a team with some injuries to key players, allegedly, those key players were around the team and are really close to getting back to practice, a little moral boost if you will.

You didn't lose them, I think you accidentally gloated in the wrong thread. I know you just assume it was me and all, but...

[Stillriledup]

You didn't lose them, I think you accidentally gloated in the wrong thread. I know you just assume it was me and all, but...

You're right, i'm all over the place, posting winners in more than one thread!

OOOOOOPS!

[cj]

You're right, i'm all over the place, posting winners in more than one thread!

OOOOOOPS!

You're on a nice run, now get your house in order to go with it! :)

[Stillriledup]

You're on a nice run, now get your house in order to go with it! :)

Totally.

[Stillriledup]

Currently NINE and two, not 7-2 as the previous post suggests. Not sure how i lost 2 winners overnight. :D

One official selection for Jan 1st

Minny +3.5 vs Sac

Wolves lost many in a row, but they've been competitive in a bunch of their games recently, i think they're in a better place mentally than Sacramento, who almost lost a game to the Knicks the other day at home. Lets go with the Wolves and some home cooking on New Years day. Also, this is a team with some injuries to key players, allegedly, those key players were around the team and are really close to getting back to practice, a little moral boost if you will.
b5-iJUuPWis

[cj]

Worst thing I ever did was teach SRU how to embed Youtube clips!

I think at this point is is safe to say reports of KD's demise were greatly exaggerated! In his last 90 minutes on the floor, he has scored 108 points on 54 shots, making 35 of them while going 15 for 24 from 3.

[headhawg]

Worst thing I ever did was teach SRU how to embed Youtube clips!No good deed goes unpunished.

[Stillriledup]

Worst thing I ever did was teach SRU how to embed Youtube clips!

I think at this point is is safe to say reports of KD's demise were greatly exaggerated! In his last 90 minutes on the floor, he has scored 108 points on 54 shots, making 35 of them while going 15 for 24 from 3.

I totally thought of that for each annoying embed i've made! I'll try and pick my spots better, i just got carried away on this "streak" i've been on. :D

[Robert Fischer]

OKC is "back"

Cleveland - Irving took a back seat to Kevin Love and they looked strong even w/out King James.

but then you had Houston get killed at New Orleans. HOU 6-29 for 3pt, only 11 freethrows, blocked 8 times...

Every time one of these NBA teams look great, they come back to earth.

[cj]

OKC is "back"

Cleveland - Irving took a back seat to Kevin Love and they looked strong even w/out King James.

but then you had Houston get killed at New Orleans. HOU 6-29 for 3pt, only 11 freethrows, blocked 8 times...

Every time one of these NBA teams look great, they come back to earth.

Look how good the Pistons look since they dumped Josh Smith, who has been awful so far for Houston by the way.

Ummm, Cleveland played the Bobcats who also don't have Big Al right now. (I know that isn't their name, but that is who they are)

[Robert Fischer]

Look how good the Pistons look since they dumped Josh Smith, who has been awful so far for Houston by the way.

Ummm, Cleveland played the Bobcats who also don't have Big Al right now. (I know that isn't their name, but that is who they are)
J 'Smoove'... Great example of a guy who is physically impressive and can do highlights, but has a very inefficient game.

Yea, Charlotte is a joke.

These are the Cavs we are talking about however. It's a miracle that Irving didn't sabotage Love's "shine", and that Love snapped out of his funk.

Oh yea.. - Melo is considering sitting out the rest of the season to rest his knee ...

[cj]

Oh yea.. - Melo is considering sitting out the rest of the season to rest his knee ...

I imagine the Knicks are trying to talk him into sitting out.

[Robert Fischer]

HOU -6 vs. IND

Spurs -5.5 vs WAS

MEM +1 vs DEN

Jazz +1 vs MINN

[Stillriledup]

Official selections for Jan 4

Lakers +2 vs Indiana

Lakers were at Ind recently and had a REALLY odd game. They scored like 5 points (27 in reality) in the entire first half, and like 7 million points in the 2nd half, they outscored Indiana by 15 in the 2nd half and still lost by 20. I have to imagine they remember that game as an embarrassment and want to get a little revenge. They have been playing well and are a bit better than i thought they were, they are pretty competitive, at home and getting 2. Lets give the purple and gold a shot here as a home dog.

Phx -1 vs Toronto

Raptors have been on like a million game road trip. They have been pretty competitive, but will they be able to show up here and beat the ultra competitive Suns? Phx is in EVERY game, last time Phx lost easily was 3 weeks ago. Give me the home team, i know i'm going to get a run for my money here, no proof how tired Toronto is or how motivated they will be. This could be another good game, Phx seems like value, they could be favored by a few pts and it wouldn't shock anyone.

[Robert Fischer]

HOU -6 vs. IND

Spurs -5.5 vs WAS

MEM +1 vs DEN

Jazz +1 vs MINN

3-1 on the day (4-1 total)

[Stillriledup]

3-1 on the day (4-1 total)

Congrats Mr 4-1, good pickin!

[Valuist]

Due to other commitments, I'm only starting to gear up for the NBA season. A couple things I've noticed. OK-C is no longer a "fast" tempo team, Chicago has gone from slow to average, and Miami has become the slowest tempo team in the entire league.

[cj]

Due to other commitments, I'm only starting to gear up for the NBA season. A couple things I've noticed. OK-C is no longer a "fast" tempo team, Chicago has gone from slow to average, and Miami has become the slowest tempo team in the entire league.

Don't be confused by the way OKC played when Durant and / or Westbrook were out, they absolutely are fast tempo with those guys both playing. Check out the scores in games with them.

[Robert Fischer]

Official selections for Jan 4

Lakers +2 vs Indiana

Lakers were at Ind recently and had a REALLY odd game. They scored like 5 points (27 in reality) in the entire first half, and like 7 million points in the 2nd half, they outscored Indiana by 15 in the 2nd half and still lost by 20. I have to imagine they remember that game as an embarrassment and want to get a little revenge. They have been playing well and are a bit better than i thought they were, they are pretty competitive, at home and getting 2. Lets give the purple and gold a shot here as a home dog.

Phx -1 vs Toronto

Raptors have been on like a million game road trip. They have been pretty competitive, but will they be able to show up here and beat the ultra competitive Suns? Phx is in EVERY game, last time Phx lost easily was 3 weeks ago. Give me the home team, i know i'm going to get a run for my money here, no proof how tired Toronto is or how motivated they will be. This could be another good game, Phx seems like value, they could be favored by a few pts and it wouldn't shock anyone.

you da man

[Stillriledup]

you da man

One of the losses i got beat on a backdoor 3 with .01 seconds left by a point in garbage time.


But, i'm not complaining. :D

Thanks for the compliment, hopefully the luck will continue. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

monday night

Golden State -3 vs. OKC

[cj]

monday night

Golden State -3 vs. OKC

This does not mean SRU is allowed to pick OKC games, unless of course he picks against them.

[Stillriledup]

This does not mean SRU is allowed to pick OKC games, unless of course he picks against them.

Don't you want Mr 12-2 on your side? :D

[cj]

Don't you want Mr 12-2 on your side? :D

no.

[ReplayRandall]

Don't you want Mr 12-2 on your side? :D


SRU, I will watch your next 14 picks and bet the other way, as I'm sure your 12-2 is nothing but an aberration........Easy money...:cool:

[Stillriledup]

SRU, I will watch your next 14 picks and bet the other way, as I'm sure your 12-2 is nothing but an aberration........Easy money...:cool:

Yes, its just a bunch of random luck. I'll be 12-12 before you know it, fade away.

[Robert Fischer]

Oh no.

J.R. Smith is allegedly going to be traded to Cleveland.
This guy is worthless. Actually he's a negative value because he shoots a lot. And he's not a frontcourt player.

Thunder likely to get Dion Waiters in the deal.

[cj]

Oh no.

J.R. Smith is allegedly going to be traded to Cleveland.
This guy is worthless. Actually he's a negative value because he shoots a lot. And he's not a frontcourt player.

Thunder likely to get Dion Waiters in the deal.

I'm not a huge Waiters guy, but they are getting him for nothing.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not a huge Waiters guy, but they are getting him for nothing.
He has a lot of physical talent for defense and transition.
Limited and inefficient on offense.

[Stillriledup]

Oh no.

J.R. Smith is allegedly going to be traded to Cleveland.
This guy is worthless. Actually he's a negative value because he shoots a lot. And he's not a frontcourt player.

Thunder likely to get Dion Waiters in the deal.

From who Shot JR in 1980 to JR Shoots a lot in 2015 , my, we have come a long way! :D

[cj]

He has a lot of physical talent for defense and transition.
Limited and inefficient on offense.

Scouts say just the opposite, gotten better on offense, but still no defense.

[Robert Fischer]

Scouts say just the opposite, gotten better on offense, but still no defense.

i am a grumpy fan who thinks he knows better than most of the scouts, coaches, and players. Take my report w/ a grain of salt.

He's 23 years old, 6'3" 225lbs NBA shooting guard. When I see that, and then I look at Dion Waiters once, I see that the whole reason he's in the NBA is his superior athletic ability.
His steals per 48 min is thirteenth in the NBA. - All that proves is that his arms aren't broken.
When you are that physically gifted and play limited minutes next to LeBron and Irving you should be able to lift up your arms and haul in 2.69 steals per 48 if they aren't broken.

He's horrible at shooting 3's. He takes a lot of long low% jump shots.

He is a decent 1-on-1 player against all but the best defenses.

He really needs coaching. He needs a summer doing nothing but solidifying his 3 point shot to at least a 35% level, learning how to pass up long 2pt jump shots, how to use his explosiveness to drive to the middle while staying under control, and how to keep opposing guards out of the middle and when to give them a jump shot on defense.
But you can't count on a player in the NBA actually developing. A lot of hurdles and not many willing players and knowledgeable coaches.

[Valuist]

Don't be confused by the way OKC played when Durant and / or Westbrook were out, they absolutely are fast tempo with those guys both playing. Check out the scores in games with them.

Good point. I'm still getting caught up and I'm sure the OKC possession numbers go up as season goes along.

[Stillriledup]

Official selections for Jan 4

Lakers +2 vs Indiana

Lakers were at Ind recently and had a REALLY odd game. They scored like 5 points (27 in reality) in the entire first half, and like 7 million points in the 2nd half, they outscored Indiana by 15 in the 2nd half and still lost by 20. I have to imagine they remember that game as an embarrassment and want to get a little revenge. They have been playing well and are a bit better than i thought they were, they are pretty competitive, at home and getting 2. Lets give the purple and gold a shot here as a home dog.

Phx -1 vs Toronto

Raptors have been on like a million game road trip. They have been pretty competitive, but will they be able to show up here and beat the ultra competitive Suns? Phx is in EVERY game, last time Phx lost easily was 3 weeks ago. Give me the home team, i know i'm going to get a run for my money here, no proof how tired Toronto is or how motivated they will be. This could be another good game, Phx seems like value, they could be favored by a few pts and it wouldn't shock anyone.

Archie Goodwin with the exclamation point on SRU's winning selection. This is the type of play you can expect when you get on the SRU bandwagon.

RLddou1HILQ

[Relwob Owner]

I'm not a huge Waiters guy, but they are getting him for nothing.

Aren't they giving up a protected first rounder? I think its top 18 protected this year and top 15 in 16,17 and if it doesn't get used by 2018 becomes two seconds. Not a great pick but definitely more than nothing.

[Robert Fischer]

Golden State is really special.
I don't know if the have the character to make a serious title run, but they currently play the best basketball in the NBA.

[Stillriledup]

Golden State is really special.
I don't know if the have the character to make a serious title run, but they currently play the best basketball in the NBA.

They seem to be as good as anyone at full power. No argument there.

[lansdale]

Official selections for Jan 4

Lakers +2 vs Indiana

Lakers were at Ind recently and had a REALLY odd game. They scored like 5 points (27 in reality) in the entire first half, and like 7 million points in the 2nd half, they outscored Indiana by 15 in the 2nd half and still lost by 20. I have to imagine they remember that game as an embarrassment and want to get a little revenge. They have been playing well and are a bit better than i thought they were, they are pretty competitive, at home and getting 2. Lets give the purple and gold a shot here as a home dog.

Phx -1 vs Toronto

Raptors have been on like a million game road trip. They have been pretty competitive, but will they be able to show up here and beat the ultra competitive Suns? Phx is in EVERY game, last time Phx lost easily was 3 weeks ago. Give me the home team, i know i'm going to get a run for my money here, no proof how tired Toronto is or how motivated they will be. This could be another good game, Phx seems like value, they could be favored by a few pts and it wouldn't shock anyone.

Looks like you've given PA some nice Christmas gifts in these picks over the holiday season. Congrats.

[Stillriledup]

Looks like you've given PA some nice Christmas gifts in these picks over the holiday season. Congrats.

Thanks. Appreciate the compliments. I'm going to try and keep it rolling!

[Robert Fischer]

monday night

Golden State -3 vs. OKC
5-1

what is going on here? Must be something in the water.

You can run but you can't hide SRU

[Stillriledup]

5-1

what is going on here? Must be something in the water.

You can run but you can't hide SRU

Our picks have been Cash Money.

1xD5dHC2jgw

Listen to the money talk.

SRU and RF a combined 17-3

What's UP!

[Stillriledup]

5-1

what is going on here? Must be something in the water.

You can run but you can't hide SRU

BEhlNcaDPz8

[Robert Fischer]

SRU and RF a combined 17-3

What's UP!
Any time a guy's willing to do 2/3 of the work, and share the credit, he's a good man in my book.
_ZH8zcJUH1M

[Valuist]

FWIW, the Spurs have played a total of 5 overtime games since December 3rd; including a pair of 3 OT games. Wouldn't be surprised if it took a toll in the short term for them.

[cj]

FWIW, the Spurs have played a total of 5 overtime games since December 3rd; including a pair of 3 OT games. Wouldn't be surprised if it took a toll in the short term for them.

I also think the Spurs were incredibly focused last year on winning the title they blew the year before. I don't think they are nearly as motivated, and lets be honest, they are getting older. The run can't last forever.

[Robert Fischer]

No bets tonight.

I don't know enough about the games tonight to think that I have an edge.

The closest thing to a bet that I see is Houston -6.5 vs Cleveland.
Houston of course lost in Chicago, Monday, but the problem I have is not with the result, it is with the regression of the shot charts for Houston.

Houston has the best shot charts in the NBA. They aren't the best team or the best offense, but their shot selection has been a strong point.

In the Chicago game you had Ariza, Smith, Harden, and Brewer among others take some questionable shots, but with Harden, you can't always tell from a chart due to the fact that he has to carry a high volume of offense and will occasional get shots that he didn't 'select' when the offense stagnates due to a team lapse or defensive stand.

Josh Smith however is another reason that I can't use this game. I have an emotional bias against Josh Smith. I have a strong dislike as a fan for him. In the Chicago game he had 8 bad shots in 26 minutes. He had 20 shots total in 26 minutes, but 12 of them were not bad on the chart.
To make matters worse, he made 4 of his 8 bad shots.
So you had a guy shooting at a high frequency with really poor systemic efficiency, on a team where I love their systemic efficiency, and he got positive reinforcement for the dump that he took on my team.

I would like to see the coach restrict his shot selection, but that is unlikely. I also worry that he will have a carryover effect ("J-Smoove is shooting carelessly, why can't I") after seeing some of the other bad shots.

I also don't understand why the line is only 6.5 points. It seems like a game on paper where Houston will return to form and win easily and the score will come down to how hard they keep the pressure on in the final quarter. The fact that I don't know why the point spread is like this, also prevents me from making a selection.

[Robert Fischer]

1st quarter had a mediocre shot chart (marred by Smith and others), but HOU managed 3 pts more than Cleveland. Since that time it's been better. Currently 69-64 Cleveland, but if the trend(of better shot selection) continues, I would expect Houston to make this one close or even win.
Point spread? Probably not.

[Robert Fischer]

Currently 69-64 Cleveland, but if the trend(of better shot selection) continues, I would expect Houston to make this one close or even win.
Point spread? Probably not.


The trend did continue, and along with other factors it actually led to Houston winning comfortably.

In the 4th quarter, ALL of Houston's shots charted as what I would call good, except for 2 shots (both by Josh Smith). Smith finished with 6 bad (charted) shots, and Houston only had 9 bad chart shots in total for the entire game.
6/9

[lansdale]

FWIW, the Spurs have played a total of 5 overtime games since December 3rd; including a pair of 3 OT games. Wouldn't be surprised if it took a toll in the short term for them.

These OT games, and the way the Spurs are playing these days seem to me a function of a few factors: the new parity in the NBA West, many AWOL hours for Spur players (even more than usual), and Pop giving even greater minutes to the second and third unit players than injury-replacement would imply. Two of the most important Spur players, Kawhi and TP, have missed a significant chunk of games, as have Splitter, Bellinelli, and Miller. But I think the burnout factor you mentioned could apply to Duncan and Greene, who have carried the burden in many of these games. Time will tell. When they've seemed clearly motivated and playing close to their usual level, they've handled GSW, Grizz, Houston, et. al. pretty well. My guess is, if Kawhi comes back after the All-Star break, they'll go on their usual run and be peaking around playoff time.

[Dark Horse]

This part of the season is the long backstretch (January to All Star break). Experienced winning teams, like the Spurs, will use it take a breather and have enough in the tank for the stretch run. Like you said, it looks like Pop is working on depth right now. Inexperienced teams that are getting used to winning often make the mistake of not taking a breather here. Very similar to a horse race. In spite of their shiny record it's a virtual guarantee, unless they slow down soon, that teams like the Warriors are going nowhere in the playoffs. Such teams get in a speed duel for home court advantage. You will also often see experienced star players take extended injury breaks here.

[MutuelClerk]

I don't watch much NBA these days but it seems betting against any team with Josh Smith might be a good idea.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't watch much NBA these days but it seems betting against any team with Josh Smith might be a good idea.
http://hoopsextreme.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/b6j3s8ecqaag_th.jpg

[MutuelClerk]

Well done. Pistons play Atlanta tomorrow. Another team that's Josh free. Also the team with the best record in the East. Coincidence? Doubtful.

[Stillriledup]

http://hoopsextreme.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/b6j3s8ecqaag_th.jpg

:D

Its funny because its true. There's a reason people don't want that guy and there's a reason teams can't get rid of him fast enough.

[Robert Fischer]

a geek like me hates the inefficiencies that Josh Smith represents, but he was making 14 million a year.

What that says to me, is that the coaches and scouts and agents are just as much at fault.

The incentives weren't aligned.

[Robert Fischer]

Friday Night Guesses:

Atlanta -2.5 vs Detroit

Chicago+1 vs Wash

[Stillriledup]

Friday Night Guesses:

Atlanta -2.5 vs Detroit

Chicago+1 vs Wash

I was on the fence w Phx getting 5, but its their 3rd game in 4 nights and SA seems rested, i just couldn't pull the trigger. GL on those picks, lets get them in. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Friday Night Guesses:

Atlanta -2.5 vs Detroit

Chicago+1 vs Wash
50% about what i deserved for a guess.
Atlanta almost blew a big lead by being outscored 28-16 in the 4qr.
6-2 Season

[cj]

So this one was a little demoralizing for the crowd last night.

dOb0DiPvNkU

[Stillriledup]

So this one was a little demoralizing for the crowd last night.

dOb0DiPvNkU

Luck is luck the woman said at the end of the video? :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

ywR6vWbU6cg

The Bricks took 30! "long twos" tonight. 30!!
(i was bitching because the Rockets took 9 bad shots the other day)

No wonder the Knicks shot 39% from the field vs. the awful Hornets.

[Stillriledup]

Official selection:

Cavs +3 at Sac

Cavs, losers of 4 in a row, could get a win here with a couple new players in the fold, hopefully the Loves, Smiths and Mozgovs can grit their teeth and win a winnable game here.

Or, at least only lose by 2. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Portland -6 @ Lakers
-If Kobe decides to play and either has a good game or gets every call, then I will lose this bet. However I am grumpy tonight, and I REALLY dislike what Nick Young has evolved into. He has potentially to be a good role player, i used to like the guy!, - with his good length and athletic ability for defense and his skill set and 3pt shooting on offense. However, he has attained a corny "nba hiphop nickname" and begun jacking the ball up like one of those overpaid all-star level players that the league pretends are stars. He's like 5 for his last 24 from 3pt range although he has consistently been featured on sports center highlights. BOTH of these teams "just ball", with no strategy as far as shot-selection is concerned. Lilard and Aldridge have a chance to shine vs non-elite team-defense, and Matthews adds potential 3pt efficiency to the mix.
:mad: Swag "this" Swaggy-P

[Robert Fischer]

'swaggy p' is 0-5 (0-4 from 3) and Kobe isn't playing ,

and it's still only 5pts at halftime :bang:

Aldridge has 6 shots and ALL have been long-twos...


At least the same strengths vs. weaknesses exist as when I picked the game.
I have to be happy with the bet.
Go Trailblazers :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Portland -6 @ Lakers

7-2 season.

[Stillriledup]

Two official picks for tonight:

Phx -4 vs Cleveland.

Lebron a game time decision, but these guys lost to Sac by 20 in a "no try" effort, Phx is a winning team who plays as hard as anyone night in and night out, and i only have to lay 4. I'll bite.

Miami -1.5 vs Lakers

Heat coming off nice win vs Clippers the other day, maybe they're getting into form a bit....lakers still bottom feeders, kinda like that i can bet against LAL and only lay a very small amount, i'll take advantage of that here.

[cj]

Two official picks for tonight:

Phx -4 vs Cleveland.

Lebron a game time decision, but these guys lost to Sac by 20 in a "no try" effort, Phx is a winning team who plays as hard as anyone night in and night out, and i only have to lay 4. I'll bite.

Miami -1.5 vs Lakers

Heat coming off nice win vs Clippers the other day, maybe they're getting into form a bit....lakers still bottom feeders, kinda like that i can bet against LAL and only lay a very small amount, i'll take advantage of that here.

No updated record?

[lansdale]

Two official picks for tonight:

Phx -4 vs Cleveland.

Lebron a game time decision, but these guys lost to Sac by 20 in a "no try" effort, Phx is a winning team who plays as hard as anyone night in and night out, and i only have to lay 4. I'll bite.

Miami -1.5 vs Lakers

Heat coming off nice win vs Clippers the other day, maybe they're getting into form a bit....lakers still bottom feeders, kinda like that i can bet against LAL and only lay a very small amount, i'll take advantage of that here.

Still picking the Suns to cover even if LBJ plays?

[Stillriledup]

Still picking the Suns to cover even if LBJ plays?

Yes.

[Stillriledup]

No updated record?

12-3

[Robert Fischer]

Spus+1 @Wash
I am clueless but still picking teams because of an urge to mindlessly blather online. Mills has played dumb lately. I hope Mills doesn't ruin my pick. Washington plays nonsense ball, so there will be plenty of opportunities to grind out an advantage.

Miami -2.5 @ Lakers
I wish I had SRU's bookie to get -1.5.
No worries.
Another pick I am guessing with. I will let blind rage and hatred of Nick Young poison my outstanding betting. Wade punishes Lakers big guys with his speed and moves, Bosh stretches the D out like a dinosaur neck. My side play for this game is that the white guy with the orange prison tattoos will alienate some old lady from ever watching the NBA again.

Cavs+5 @ Phoenix
LeBron probably won't play. He's more likely to chill n come back for the media market @ the Lakers thurs night. Even stub hub tix are worth 85% more for the Laker game.
However... - the horrible J. R. Smith is due for a lucky shooting night. I realize that I've become my father, and I despise this streetball crap, and I will celebrate it with a counterintuitve score on a message board.

Dallas-5 @ Sacramento
Dallas shoots too many jumpers. maybe Dirk will go to the hoop a million times following that embarrassing loss last game. Hopefully Monta(name?) Ellis doesn't fill the void by throwing up the masonry. Sacramento stinks. Neither of these teams seem to want to grind out a close game. Dallas by 10.

7-2 season (soon to be 7-6 after i go 0-4)

[cj]

It would be pretty poor on Lebron's part if he was at the football game last night and can't play tonight.

[Stillriledup]

Spus+1 @Wash
I am clueless but still picking teams because of an urge to mindlessly blather online. Mills has played dumb lately. I hope Mills doesn't ruin my pick. Washington plays nonsense ball, so there will be plenty of opportunities to grind out an advantage.

Miami -2.5 @ Lakers
I wish I had SRU's bookie to get -1.5.
No worries.
Another pick I am guessing with. I will let blind rage and hatred of Nick Young poison my outstanding betting. Wade punishes Lakers big guys with his speed and moves, Bosh stretches the D out like a dinosaur neck.

Cavs+5 @ Phoenix
LeBron probably won't play. He's more likely to come back for the media market @ the Lakers thurs night. Even stub hub tix are worth 85% more for the Laker game.
However... - the horrible J. R. Smith is due for a lucky shooting night. I realize that I've become my father, and I despise this streetball crap, and I will celebrate it with a counterintuitve score on a message board.

Dallas-5 @ Sacramento
Dallas shoots too many jumpers. maybe Dirk will go to the hoop a million times. Sacramento stinks. Neither of these teams seem to want to grind out a close game. Dallas by 10.

7-2 season (soon to be 7-6 after i go 0-4)

Found Miami -1.5 on two different websites, so that's what i went with, its changed on the site i used from 1.5 to 2.5 so i got in under the bell.!

[Robert Fischer]

It would be pretty poor on Lebron's part if he was at the football game last night and can't play tonight.

he gained an *hour on the flight back in his private jet.







*and a point for SRU to use in his spreads ;)

[ReplayRandall]

12-3
Posted on 1-05-15 by ReplayRandall
SRU, I will watch your next 14 picks and bet the other way, as I'm sure your
12-2 is nothing but an aberration........Easy money...:cool:
My updated record is 1-0, thanks to SRU....Easy money....:cool:

[Stillriledup]

My updated record is 1-0, thanks to SRU....Easy money....:cool:

I would post a youtube clip of Rodney Dangerfield collecting some easy cash, but i think i'm out of embeds for the time being. :D

[Robert Fischer]

Is it just me, or has LeBron put back on a significant amount of muscle recently?

from tonight's game @ Phoenix Suns:
http://oi58.tinypic.com/52yulv.jpg

[Stillriledup]

Is it just me, or has LeBron put back on a significant amount of muscle recently?

from tonight's game @ Phoenix Suns:
http://oi58.tinypic.com/52yulv.jpg

Wait, i didnt realize Barry Bonds is on the Cavs? :D

[Robert Fischer]

Wait, i didnt realize Barry Bonds is on the Cavs? :D

guess he got the 'green light' again...

Better for the NBA. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

The Cavs just look dreadful. The last two minutes looked like five guys on offense that never played together before.

[Robert Fischer]

The Cavs just look dreadful. The last two minutes looked like five guys on offense that never played together before.
yup. LeBrawn had 13 free throw attempts, and looked like he put on 13lbs, and they still looked dreadful...

1-3 on the night, yikes

8-5 season

[Stillriledup]

The Cavs just look dreadful. The last two minutes looked like five guys on offense that never played together before.

You think that was bad you should have seen the Lakers game. Both teams were beyond belief bad.

[Robert Fischer]

You think that was bad you should have seen the Lakers game. Both teams were beyond belief bad.

It's funny how it can go sometimes...

You have games where both teams are swishing 3 pointers from 25,30 feet like it's nothing, and you have games where teams can't score 80 points.

[Robert Fischer]

I just watched the 'highlights' for the Phoenix Cleveland game.

couple of observations:
1. LeBron is in fact back on the juice.
2. The 'highlights' are a completely separate thing than the game.

The video was about 2 minutes in length and I think they showed 1 highlight from the team that won by 7 points (Suns).
They did however show about half of LeBron's fgs and lots of J.R. Smith looking cool and making 3s. (Smith actually did have a rare efficient offensive night btw).

I get the whole highlights thing, and that fans allegedly don't like team play as much as highlights, and they don't like highlights from Phoenix players as much as LeBron's team regardless of whether Phoenix is winning the game, and that the sponsors would like to associate with LeBron's power-dunk more than some 3-pass score by some Phoenix Sun players that I can't even think of as I type this.
I get that.
It's still weird.

[ReplayRandall]

You think that was bad you should have seen the Lakers game. Both teams were beyond belief bad.

My updated record 1-2....:cool:

[cj]

Here is Lebron in November:

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Sports/espnapi_nba_g_james01jr_B_576x324_wmain.jpg

...and last night:

http://www.ohio.com/polopoly_fs/1.558285.1421223204!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_440/james-lebron-tongue-out.jpg

Can't say I see much difference to be honest.

[Robert Fischer]

Here is Lebron in November:

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Sports/espnapi_nba_g_james01jr_B_576x324_wmain.jpg

...and last night:

http://www.ohio.com/polopoly_fs/1.558285.1421223204!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_440/james-lebron-tongue-out.jpg

Can't say I see much difference to be honest.

I agree that he looks almost the same in those pictures.

Good eye. :ThmbUp:

[hracingplyr]

Take Atlanta -7 over the Celtics this evening. Atlanta is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 Road games.

Bob

[Stillriledup]

My updated record 1-2....:cool:

Hopping aboard the Fadey Train i see ;)

[ReplayRandall]

Hopping aboard the Fadey Train i see ;)

I'm a firm believer in honest and up-to-date recordkeeping.....:cool:

[Stillriledup]

I'm a firm believer in honest and up-to-date recordkeeping.....:cool:

Catorce años y tres :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Official picks for Jan 14 (Odds taken from Pinnacle)

New Orleans +4.5 at Detroit

Pistons have been RED hot and playing as hard as anyone could ever play. BUT, they have played a LOT of games recently, this is their 7th game in 10 days. At what point do these guys throw in a clunker? Hoping tonight is the night.

Pha +16.5 at Toronto.

Raptors have probably never been favored by this many points in their history, and they LOST to a "tired" Piston team the other day. Pha playing a bit better over their last few games....lets grab the large spread and hope Pha hits some shots and hangs around here.

Season's Record: 14-3 (or Catorce años y tres for those of you who no speaka da engliss :p )

[cj]

Catorce años y tres :ThmbUp:

14 years and 3, what the heck does that mean?

[Stillriledup]

14 years and 3, what the heck does that mean?

Don't know. Ask the english spanish translator. :ThmbDown: This was one of the answers i got when i put in "fourteen and three".

[Robert Fischer]

Spurs -4.5 @ Charlotte
Ginobli should have good numbers 2nd off the layoff, Parker can float jumpers or assist Duncan all night vs. Kumbaya Walker..., and Lance Stephenson's return to the Hornets should actually hurt Charlotte's half-court offense (if that is even possible).

Detroit -4 vs New Orleans
Anything can happen. On the surface, Davis is in for a huge night. 40pts, 5blks, 10boards??
but it's not enough. Detroit 100 New Orleans 40.

8-5 on the seasonings

[ReplayRandall]

Hopping aboard the Fadey Train i see ;)

My updated record is 1-4.....:cool:

[thaskalos]

Official picks for Jan 14 (Odds taken from Pinnacle)

New Orleans +4.5 at Detroit

Pistons have been RED hot and playing as hard as anyone could ever play. BUT, they have played a LOT of games recently, this is their 7th game in 10 days. At what point do these guys throw in a clunker? Hoping tonight is the night.

Pha +16.5 at Toronto.

Raptors have probably never been favored by this many points in their history, and they LOST to a "tired" Piston team the other day. Pha playing a bit better over their last few games....lets grab the large spread and hope Pha hits some shots and hangs around here.

Season's Record: 14-3 (or Catorce años y tres for those of you who no speaka da engliss :p )
SRU...the Greek Grapevine has informed me that Haralabos Voulgaris is frantically googling for your phone number.

http://www.businessinsider.com/sweat-in-the-game-a-gamblers-grind-in-the-nba-2011-4

[Stillriledup]

SRU...the Greek Grapevine has informed me that Haralabos Voulgaris is frantically googling for your phone number.

http://www.businessinsider.com/sweat-in-the-game-a-gamblers-grind-in-the-nba-2011-4

Thank you Gus. Just trying to dish out some punishment.

:ThmbUp:

Like Charlie Sheen says in Wall Street "kickin ass and taking names, Lou".

[Robert Fischer]

Official picks for Jan 14 (Odds taken from Pinnacle)

New Orleans +4.5 at Detroit

Pistons have been RED hot and playing as hard as anyone could ever play. BUT, they have played a LOT of games recently, this is their 7th game in 10 days. At what point do these guys throw in a clunker? Hoping tonight is the night.

Pha +16.5 at Toronto.

Raptors have probably never been favored by this many points in their history, and they LOST to a "tired" Piston team the other day. Pha playing a bit better over their last few games....lets grab the large spread and hope Pha hits some shots and hangs around here.

Season's Record: 14-3 (or Catorce años y tres for those of you who no speaka da engliss :p )

What is this?

16-3 now?
this is ridiculous. You have an edge. What is your cousin a referee??
You want to get internet 'props' with all these wins, and you are going to ruin your inside connection.

You have an edge. It's improbable that you could be 16-3 on luck.

[Robert Fischer]

SRU...the Greek Grapevine has informed me that Haralabos Voulgaris is frantically googling for your phone number.

http://www.businessinsider.com/sweat-in-the-game-a-gamblers-grind-in-the-nba-2011-4

That's a nice story.

Interesting to hear his difficulties with an NBA hands-on position.

He's clearly a genius. Now, -it isn't 100% certain that he's a genius when it comes to being a General Manager or similar role within an NBA organization but it isn't far-fetched that his skillset could overlap some of the same tasks, if not the entire job.

Regardless, of whether it's politics or he wasn't cut out for it - his excuses ring TRUE:

"And Voulgaris, being a confident person with strong opinions and little patience, had a hard time fitting in and getting his voice heard. His opinions were just that to basketball executives, merely his opinions. The work was all so subjective. This wasn’t so in the world of the professional gambler. “There is something inherently rewarding in knowing on a night to night, week to week basis that you were ‘right.’ "

You have to be crazy to be a genius like Haralabos Voulgaris.


There is no "social satisfaction" in truth.


Truth is few and rare in society, - and error is common and vulgar.

And the genius is not only going against overwhelming popularity and numbers - he's also making that socially catastrophic statement: "I know better than the Authority".

This is why "the market" is so great.
Without the market, Voulgaris must accept his temporary insanity, and redeem himself by adopting popular opinion, and submitting to the superiority of authority.

With the market, Voulgaris can bet on his truth.

[Stillriledup]

What is this?

16-3 now?
this is ridiculous. You have an edge. What is your cousin a referee??
You want to get internet 'props' with all these wins, and you are going to ruin your inside connection.

You have an edge. It's improbable that you could be 16-3 on luck.

its a combination. I'd like to think i'm a decent NBA handicapper, but i've gotten pretty lucky in some of these games.

Its a pretty improbable run, regression to the mean is inevitable.....hopefully Replay Randall won't go belly up fading me! :D

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/05/05a939ca064ab53c3432a9f814d0631d978d7bf1e632f657a9 70f38a983f8284.jpg

[ReplayRandall]

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/05/05a939ca064ab53c3432a9f814d0631d978d7bf1e632f657a9 70f38a983f8284.jpg


RF, where did you find this sweaty picture of me?....:cool:

[Stillriledup]

RF, where did you find this sweaty picture of me?....:cool:

He googled "Mr one and four" and found you! :D

[ReplayRandall]

He googled "Mr one and four" and found you! :D



Enjoy it while it lasts, funnyman......

[Robert Fischer]

Cleveland -5.5 @ Lakers
Counting on the Cavs is crazy, but LeBron is back on the juice, and this (believe it or not) is a marquee game for the NBA. /conspiracy angle... NBA needs a game like this, and a healthy LeBron + LA is all the necessary ingredients. Looking for LeBron to "throw down" 40, on Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, even if it takes 15 free throws.

(humble) 9-6 record on the season

[Stillriledup]

Cleveland -5.5 @ Lakers
Counting on the Cavs is crazy, but LeBron is back on the juice, and this (believe it or not) is a marquee game for the NBA. /conspiracy angle... NBA needs a game like this, and a healthy LeBron + LA is all the necessary ingredients. Looking for LeBron to "throw down" 40, on Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, even if it takes 15 free throws.

(humble) 9-6 record on the season

I'm "off" tonight with official picks, and i like your angles here, especially anything to do with a conspiracy, i'm all over that :D

The one thing that worries me here is that, and i hate to say this, but the Lakers have more heart than the Cavs RIGHT NOW in time. I dont know what's the situation with these Cavs, they did improve the other night vs Phx, they actually attempted to win which they didnt' do in Sacramento.

Kobe and the Lakers were down, basically, 20-0 in the first period vs Miami and played what visually looked like the worst game any team has ever played, Miami was god awful and tried to give the game away, Bosh was so bad it looked like it was his first ever NBA game, but the thing i liked about the lakers was effort. They kept coming even though they stunk and couldnt hit the side of a barn.

Kobe was really bad last time, and he was embarrassed, he missed 16 of 18 shots or something like that and had some really terrible giveaways, maybe his worst ever lifetime game...so he's going to want to redeem himself.

Geez, that's just so many points to lay with a team who's been horrible, i know they didnt have Lebron but still, its a lot of points to give on the road against a team who is going to probably play hard.

Ill be watching this game because both teams play tomorrow, Cavs are At Clippers in the same building tomorrow night and the Lakers head to Utah. Kobe probably won't play both games, i haven't heard if tonight is his night off, or its tomorrow.

[ReplayRandall]

I'm "off" tonight with official picks, and i like your angles here, especially anything to do with a conspiracy, i'm all over that :D

The one thing that worries me here is that, and i hate to say this, but the Lakers have more heart than the Cavs RIGHT NOW in time. I dont know what's the situation with these Cavs, they did improve the other night vs Phx, they actually attempted to win which they didnt' do in Sacramento.

Kobe and the Lakers were down, basically, 20-0 in the first period vs Miami and played what visually looked like the worst game any team has ever played, Miami was god awful and tried to give the game away, Bosh was so bad it looked like it was his first ever NBA game, but the thing i liked about the lakers was effort. They kept coming even though they stunk and couldnt hit the side of a barn.

Kobe was really bad last time, and he was embarrassed, he missed 16 of 18 shots or something like that and had some really terrible giveaways, maybe his worst ever lifetime game...so he's going to want to redeem himself.

Geez, that's just so many points to lay with a team who's been horrible, i know they didnt have Lebron but still, its a lot of points to give on the road against a team who is going to probably play hard.

Ill be watching this game because both teams play tomorrow, Cavs are At Clippers in the same building tomorrow night and the Lakers head to Utah. Kobe probably won't play both games, i haven't heard if tonight is his night off, or its tomorrow.

I can only imagine your post would have been TWICE as long, if you had an actual PLAY! Holy Crap SRU, one of your worst posts ever........I'm done fading you also....I'll take my -3 unit loss, using my valuable time to read more interesting threads from posters who have a "conscious" mind.......BTW, Good luck......(mush intended)

[Robert Fischer]

I can only imagine your post would have been TWICE as long, if you had an actual PLAY! Holy Crap SRU, one of your worst posts ever........I'm done fading you also....I'll take my -3 unit loss, using my valuable time to read more interesting threads from posters who have a "conscious" mind.......BTW, Good luck......(mush intended)
TLDR: "He's leaning toward the Lakers but he's scared to bet!" :D

SURE... , When he's 16-3 against the spread, everybody says he has a right to be long winded...

But I might not lose another game!

You think this is a game to me??

Mr. 16-3!??... Big and Bad?? You got an edge or Fluke Luck!? :lol::lol:
http://oi60.tinypic.com/1zytp2u.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

This Hou OKC game is finishing up, and Dion Waiters and is hustling to get garbage-time stats.

I just saw him shoot 4 times and get 3 cheap buckets and grab a defensive rebound (over a teammate).

His inefficient stats for tonight look a lot better now(but still pitiful).
Waiters was 3-12 with 9 points
until the final 2 minutes 17seconds and so he finished with 6 for 16 with 16 points and 1 total rebound.


Josh smith 'only' shot 1 3pt shot today for Houston. He's now 5-26 from 3pt range since becoming a Rocket.

[Robert Fischer]

Cleveland seems to have this one won, failing a barrage of late 3s

Will they have the killer instinct to finish the lakers off? Or let them linger and beat the spread??

[Robert Fischer]

Cleveland -5.5 @ Lakers
Counting on the Cavs is crazy, but LeBron is back on the juice, and this (believe it or not) is a marquee game for the NBA. /conspiracy angle... NBA needs a game like this, and a healthy LeBron + LA is all the necessary ingredients. Looking for LeBron to "throw down" 40, on Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, even if it takes 15 free throws.

(humble) 9-6 record on the season
10-6
LeBron 36 pts 13 free throw attempts
Cavs by 7.


wasn't a "fun" win for me

I'm glad i didn't bet this with real money.

Basketball would give me ulcers.

You have the Cavs playing significantly better, but you have LeBron using the cushion in score to put on a show doing low% fadeaways, and then they foul Kobe on his 3pt attempt.
Some serious playoff basketball runs, but then lots of smiles and All-Star game level nonchalance...

Haralabos Voulgaris could teach me a lot about betting basketball. He says " predicting not what teams should do but what they will do"...

I'm sitting here just miserable, and I'm whining because the players are doing the right things. But they are doing fairly predictable things.

10-6 isn't horrible for an amateur, but I don't feel 'control' like in racing.

[Stillriledup]

Official picks for Jan 16th.

Current Record: 16-3
Spreads taken from Pinnacle at 6pm EST
LAC -8 vs Cleveland.

Cavs coming off win, but there's a lot of inner turmoil in their coaching situation and god knows what else, will the Cavs mail this one in on a back to back? They lost by 20 recently to Sac on the west coast, always good to bet against a team who's in the middle of a mutiny to get the coach fired.

Pelicans -6.5 at Pha

With the spread low like this, you're going to need Philly to play hard for 48 minutes to cash this bet. N..O. just had good road win at Detroit, lets see if they can keep it rolling, they're a .500 team that's hopefully on the rise.

Blazers +4.5 at SA

Blazers beat SA in SA back in December and heading into that game, SA was 17-9 on the year....but since that game, SA is a ".500 team" while the Blazers keep chugging along. I'll grab the Points here, why not. Possible that Leonard will return for SA tonight, hopefully he's rusty. :D

Wolves +13.5 at Suns

Wolves had Mo Williams go for 52 the other night, so if he can do it again :D they might be able to cover the line. Suns might just take these guys for granted, hopefully Minny can keep it close, this is a lot of pts.

Hopefully i won't be Mr 16-7 after tonight. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

you might be 20-3 baby

Hey.
What is the hell is the deal with the OKC Golden State game??

So why did the line supposedly open THUNDER -2????

Does Vegas think that fans are that biased from the recent playoff runs, that they will assume that the Thunder at home are better??

Or was this a trap for suckers?? The line is now -1 or -1.5 favoring Golden State.

Bad estimation of the public? Did something legitimately change recently?? Or is this a conspiracy game??

I feel that Golden State is superior and I'd estimate that if they played a bunch of games that GS would beat OKC in the majority of the results.

However, I don't understand the line tonight. I can't seriously post a play.







http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/062314_kerradams.jpg
*TLDR
Golden State looks far superior in my opinion.

Even though the game is in Oklahoma, Golden State is the most efficient team in the NBA. Golden State is the closest thing to what would happen if I were working for an NBA owner.

I don't have a budget nor a salary to work for the NBA, I don't have a staff. I pretty much just have google.
But from my limited amateur perspective Golden State managed to hire one of the most intelligent coaches that I've been able to notice. They got that guy Ron Adams. I don't even remember where he came from, and I don't feel like googling it again:

pictured above advising Steve Kerr

He is the 'defensive coordinator' for the Warriors.

I don't even know if other teams have a defensive coordinator?


Anyway, they were smart enough to notice that this Adams guy (whoever he is) is a genius, and they put him on their team.

Kerr is a pretty cool guy, himself. I don't know if he is smart or not, but among ex-players he doesn't have as many negatives. He doesn't seem dumb. His ego is not bigger than half the players. He seems to be coaching as his main gig (not something he happens to do when he's not enjoying his retirement). He was a role-player on champion teams. He was a 3pt shooter and has insight into both the value of the 3pt shot, and actual on-court tactics and fundamentals.

Then you have the players. = Curry forces defenders to chase OVER screens, and he's able to combine that with the ability to handle the ball, and to punish opposing frontcourt players if a switch occurs. On defense he is so quick that he can help 1 pass away. He's also humble enough to be coached by Adams and co., and does not seem dumb.

Klay Thompson = also forces defenders to chase OVER screens. Like Curry is a tremendous 3pt shooter, making him one of the most valuable offensive players when properly used. Has enough length and athletic ability that he can effectively help in the frontcourt and switch with forwards on defense. Also humble enough to be coached by Adams.

Draymond Greene = Strong enough to defend frontcourt players within a brilliant team concept. His speed provides an exploitable edge for switching to defend guards without giving up high% plays.
Doesn't seem dumb.

Barnes =very athletic, and has pretty good size. A good tool for defense and fast breaks, and he's properly used.

Iguodala = similar, older bench version of Barnes.

[cj]

SRU, it is ok (and even encouraged) if you pick against OKC. We can use all the help we can get.

[Stillriledup]

SRU, it is ok (and even encouraged) if you pick against OKC. We can use all the help we can get.
:D

I'll pick against them when the time is right. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

OKC+1 vs Golden State
I Just ranted on about how i couldn't bet this game. Guess I am a degenerate fantasy NBA handicapper. Line makes no sense. Looks like a suckers-trap for a conspiracy game. I feel Warriors are much better, but going to trust my gut here and play the line. Big game for Durant.

Cleveland +8
LeBron is back on the juice, and the Clippers seesaw between some of the slickest 2-man game on the planet and some of the dumbest, talent-neutralizing, shot selection on the planet. The 'trainwreck' is fun to market, but King James is more fun to market. He just beat Kobe! Now 'witness' his greatness. I feel as though only a JR Smith 2-15 shooting night could ruin this outstanding selection.

Spurs -4.5 vs Blazers
Mann... Spurs certainly play with an eye on the schedule. Will they wake up and play with some energy tonight?? Parker can control the middle of the high-post on offense, and defensively they can tempt Aldridge to shoot a bunch of inefficient jump shots.

Sacramento vs Miami
OVER 191 POINTS

[Stillriledup]

I didnt realize A Davis for N.O. was injured. Dont see him in the lineup.

[Robert Fischer]

I didnt realize A Davis for N.O. was injured. Dont see him in the lineup.

Would you like a mulligan ?

[Stillriledup]

Would you like a mulligan ?
:D

Wow, good one RF.

[Stillriledup]

I'm in the tank. 0 for 4.

16-7 on the year.

Needed to get that out of my system. :D

[Robert Fischer]

I'm in the tank. 0 for 4.

16-7 on the year.

Needed to get that out of my system. :D

Still some time left in that Cavs Clips game:ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

3-1 night, 13-6 on the season.

[lansdale]

3-1 night, 13-6 on the season.

You and SRU smokin' with these picks. I think very few would have had these three - esp. Cavs.

[Stillriledup]

Still some time left in that Cavs Clips game:ThmbUp:

Yikes, i'm going to take 1 and 3 and be very thankful, my teams really sucked, horrible, one worse than the other.

[Robert Fischer]

Memphis -2.5 vs Portland

Not an easy game, but 'seems' obvious. Gasol is on a roll. Z-Bo is back and meaner than ever. Jeff Green adds an inside scoring threat and has energized the team.
Portland lives or dies by tough shots from Lilard and Aldridge. Tonight vs. energized classy team.

Jeff Green is a great weapon when utilized properly. Opposing teams want to beg him to launch 3's and long jumpers - he's a pitiful 29% this year. Not a bad shooter (.85% from free throw). Hmmm...
no jeff noo!http://oi59.tinypic.com/2s5xptt.jpg

Courtney Lee is a great shooter. However he'll need to be smarter tonight if i am going to win.
C'MON!!http://oi61.tinypic.com/rvhmwg.jpg


LaMarcus Aldridge is a talented player. He'd shoot over 50% if he was smarter and more efficient. Good team defense forces his numbers to come down:
http://oi61.tinypic.com/21440va.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

LaMarcus Aldridge is a talented player. He'd shoot over 50% if he was smarter and more efficient. Good team defense forces his numbers to come down:
http://oi61.tinypic.com/21440va.jpg

Aldridge off to an 0-4! start with THREE long jump-shot misses from the left side.

Amazing how these guys are inefficient and predictable.

Obviously a long way to go in a wager I could very easily lose.

I never feel comfortable when the line 'seems too easy'.

I'd love to think that supposedly the public over-rates Portland's big name players like Aldridge and is 'sleeping on Memphis, but it doesn't seem obvious to me.
We'll see.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2l8vt76.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Memphis -2.5 vs Portland
102-98 Memphis

14-6 season

[Stillriledup]

102-98 Memphis

14-6 season

I was leaning to give out one game today, the Clippers minus 8 and then it slipped my mind and when i rechecked it, the line was 10 because Cousins was out and supposedly Gay was out...but gay played and the Clippers got REALLY lucky to cover this line, with under 20 seconds left, the Kings Collison (former Clipper) fouled for no reason, Clips were going to dribble out clock and win by 7, but CP3 made 2 FTs and opened up a 9 pt lead.....Sac had multiple shots to backdoor this and missed them.

You win your next 3 picks, we are tied at 17-6.

Keep ballin RF!!

[Robert Fischer]

I was leaning to give out one game today, the Clippers minus 8 and then it slipped my mind and when i rechecked it, the line was 10 because Cousins was out and supposedly Gay was out...but gay played and the Clippers got REALLY lucky to cover this line, with under 20 seconds left, the Kings Collison (former Clipper) fouled for no reason, Clips were going to dribble out clock and win by 7, but CP3 made 2 FTs and opened up a 9 pt lead.....Sac had multiple shots to backdoor this and missed them.

You win your next 3 picks, we are tied at 17-6.

Keep ballin RF!!

These games can be so close down to a few plays...
I'll be happy if i stay above .500 :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

A Couple things I noticed/thoughts:



your clipper game. What you already said, and the fact that if Rudy Gay (6-16) makes a couple more shots...
also ^ the final was 117-108 9POINTS & i didn't understand if you said it closed @ -10pts or not.
also...
I HAVE SOME REFEREE QUESTIONS:
(IND13FT) (CHAR25FT)(char+12) funny biz or was Charlotte simply deserving of 12 more free throws? How did that line look?
more referee freethrow stuff
golden state + houston totaled 77! freethrows between them..what was the over/under for that game? did it go over??
another look at how tough and lucky u have to be:
my Griz had 9 more freethrow attempts than Portland, & Jeff Green (mr29%) Hit 3/5 3's, and I beat the spread by 1.5pts :)

[cj]

Long 2s are Aldridge's strength, so why are they dumb shots? He isn't good around the basket, and he isn't good at 3s. So while they may not fit the current model of a good shot, they are what he does best.

Serge Ibaka is similar in that he is a great shooter though he has expanded his range to three (+40% this year), but still, I'll take an open two from him and day of the week.

[Stillriledup]

Official picks for Jan 18

Current record 17-6

Spreads taken from Pinnacle at 3pm EST

Magic +9.5 vs OKC

You're welcome CJ. These Orl Magic have been playing ok of late, OKC coming off barrage of Pts vs Golden State at home, maybe they'll play a little closer to the competition here, seems like a lot of points to give on the road. I'll bite.

Jazz +12.5

Utah playing well of late, keeping teams under 100, hopefully the guys from the Salt lake can keep it close.

[Stillriledup]

Geez, i hit the wall, my luck is running out. 0-2 today.

I would have given out N.O. had A Davis played, but i gave them out the other day in a similar road situation and they tanked...of course today, they're champs.

I gotta get my mojo back. :bang:

[cj]

Geez, i hit the wall, my luck is running out. 0-2 today.

I would have given out N.O. had A Davis played, but i gave them out the other day in a similar road situation and they tanked...of course today, they're champs.

I gotta get my mojo back. :bang:

Your mushness is unparalleled. Thunder score the first 13 in the game and never looked back, building the lead to as much as 38 and scoring 79 in the first half. Indiana and Charlotte finished a game in regulation yesterday at 68-68, or 11 less points each in double the time.

[Stillriledup]

These games can be so close down to a few plays...
I'll be happy if i stay above .500 :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

A Couple things I noticed/thoughts:



your clipper game. What you already said, and the fact that if Rudy Gay (6-16) makes a couple more shots...
also ^ the final was 117-108 9POINTS & i didn't understand if you said it closed @ -10pts or not.
also...
I HAVE SOME REFEREE QUESTIONS:
(IND13FT) (CHAR25FT)(char+12) funny biz or was Charlotte simply deserving of 12 more free throws? How did that line look?
more referee freethrow stuff
golden state + houston totaled 77! freethrows between them..what was the over/under for that game? did it go over??
another look at how tough and lucky u have to be:
my Griz had 9 more freethrow attempts than Portland, & Jeff Green (mr29%) Hit 3/5 3's, and I beat the spread by 1.5pts :)


I was suggesting the Clipper game would have been a great win if you layed the 8 before it was announced the guy wasn't going to play, but did.

The 77 FTs might have been hack a dwight and then hack a someone else as retribution. Can't imagine the league loves that hack a stuff, that rule might get changed as time goes on.

You're right, you have to be lucky in some of these games to win, one of my losses was a backdoor 3 pt shot in garbage time with under 1 second to play to beat me by a point. Need luck for sure.

[Stillriledup]

Your mushness is unparalleled. Thunder score the first 13 in the game and never looked back, building the lead to as much as 38 and scoring 79 in the first half. Indiana and Charlotte finished a game in regulation yesterday at 68-68, or 11 less points each in double the time.

Thanks. Feels good to be really skilled at SOMETHING. :D

[Stillriledup]

Any picks today, SRU? The rent is fast-approaching...and I got a feeling you are due for a winner or two.

Naw, nothing for today, maybe tomorrow.

[Stillriledup]

Official Pick for Jan 21

Orlando +8

Coming right back with these guys....trying to catch Detroit on a downslide after a long stretch of really hard play.

Might have more picks, had to get this one.

[cj]

Official Pick for Jan 21

Orlando +8

Coming right back with these guys....trying to catch Detroit on a downslide after a long stretch of really hard play.

Might have more picks, had to get this one.

Not feeling the Bullets tonight? Damn man, was really hoping Thunder could steal this one.

[Stillriledup]

Adding: Official picks for jan 21

Washington -1 vs OKC

Thunder worked a bit to dispatch of Miami, Heat had the game close in the 4th quarter....back to backers for CJs boys, lets try and MUSH home CJ here. GO WIZ, uh, i mean BULLETS!

Portland +7.5 at Phx.

This is a LOT of points even without Aldridge. Im going to bite.

[Robert Fischer]

Thunder pick @ Bullets
I'm breaking rules again.
I DO NOT understand why this line isn't -5 OKC. Durant is from the area. You think he's gonna lay down?
Is this a fix? I would take -5 here. Breaking rules on this one because I clearly do not grasp something.

14-6 season

[Robert Fischer]

That's why you should never bet games that you don't understand.
11-6 Washington early.
No calls for Durant so far on the drives.
Good energy from Washington.

[Robert Fischer]

Ugly ugly basketball so far. Washington getting all the calls and made a running 3pt buzzer-beater.

OKC has these clowns Waiters and Jackson disrupting(offense) and jacking and look like they don't even have a coach.
How do they allow Jackson and Waiters to pretend they are good players and dominate the ball in 1-on-1?? They don't even rebound the ball.

I haven't even noticed Westbrook and Durant playing.

[Stillriledup]

Ugly ugly basketball so far. Washington getting all the calls and made a running 3pt buzzer-beater.

OKC has these clowns Waiters and Jackson disrupting(offense) and jacking and look like they don't even have a coach.
How do they allow Jackson and Waiters to pretend they are good players and dominate the ball in 1-on-1?? They don't even rebound the ball.

I haven't even noticed Westbrook and Durant playing.

Don't worry, i picked Wash, its a matter of time before i mush it up and get OKC the W.

[Robert Fischer]

Don't worry, i picked Wash, its a matter of time before i mush it up and get OKC the W.

Shouldn't take 2 and a half quarters to get warmed up.

[Robert Fischer]

wow , OKC had a chance to take control, and Durant let Waiters shoot the 3 and waiters shot this horrible cinderblock that led to a 3-on-1 dunk fast break.

horrible basketball.

OKC is so much better than this team and right now it's only 75-74 OKC

now 82-80
There's no way OKC loses unless waiters/jackson/morrow lose it for them. Waiters is worth about -10 points in this game.

[Stillriledup]

0-3 for me.

OKC Wins, i lose that bet. Det covers by 2, i lose there. And im losing the other game Portland mailing it in.

I might have to retire on top. :D

These might be my last selections at PA, i want to go out with a winning record.

[Robert Fischer]

0-3 for me.

OKC Wins, i lose that bet. Det covers by 2, i lose there. And im losing the other game Portland mailing it in.

I might have to retire on top. :D

These might be my last selections at PA, i want to go out with a winning record.

i can't believe you didn't play LeBron.
i can't believe morrow finally made a 3.

[Robert Fischer]

Thunder pick @ Bullets
I'm breaking rules again.
I DO NOT understand why this line isn't -5 OKC. Durant is from the area. You think he's gonna lay down?
Is this a fix? I would take -5 here. Breaking rules on this one because I clearly do not grasp something.

14-6 season
105-103 OKC
15-6 season

[Stillriledup]

i can't believe you didn't play LeBron.
i can't believe morrow finally made a 3.

You know i just glossed over that game and didn't notice it for some reason? Maybe the odds i checked didnt have that game displayed? I dont know, kind of a botch by me. Portland saved my bacon, i won't retire.

You passed me up a bit percentagewise, well done, keep chugging!
Im 18-10

[cj]

Don't worry, i picked Wash, its a matter of time before i mush it up and get OKC the W.


You are The Giving Tree.

[Stillriledup]

You are The Giving Tree.

pretty soon they'll be selling SRU jerseys in their arena next to the Durants and the westbrooks!! :D