HOY largely debatable after Classic

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/horse-year-still-debate

A lot of interesting comments follow the piece, from the most recent, down to the first. The stewards may have cost Bayern HOY honors, as he was well on track until Saturday. Don't know when, in recent years, people have been this angry. JMO.

Bayern should be 3yo Champion, and possibly HOY. He won at a bevy of tracks, one turn as well as two turn races, from sprints to routes. A no brainer as 3yo champ. He defeated California Chrome 2 out of 3 starts, and C.C. hasn't won a race in 6 months. He also defeated older horses. His resume is just too stacked. Main Sequence should garner his share of HOY ballots, as well as Untapable, who also was beaten by Bayern in her lone start vs. males.
If we are to accept the ridiculous stewards ruling of the classic, to not name bayern horse of the year with his body of grade 1 wins and the classic would be a travesty. So to not name him horse of the year would tarnish his victory as not deserved due to Garcia's ride and admit to the public that he should have been dq'd. It is an interesting enigma for the voters. My opinion he doesnt get 3yr old or horse of the year because his bc classic was not a true contest, and most of the voters are not drinking the kool aid dished by the stewards and Andy Beyer. I will give 3yr to cc and horse of the year, your guess is as good as mine.

[Tom]

CC is 3yo champ.

SA Derby
KY Derby
Preakness
photo in the Classic.

Bayern did not win any major 3yo races.

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion, the Horse of the Year, is a two horse race, that Bayern wins by head, since Chrome was not able to pass by him in the BCC. Non of the others (including Shared Belief) are not in the race.

[cj]

In my opinion, the Horse of the Year, is a two horse race, that Bayern wins by head, since Chrome was not able to pass by him in the BCC. Non of the others (including Shared Belief) are not in the race.

Bayern over Chrome is a no brainer for me. He beat him on the square two straight and won the BC Classic. Yes, he fouled some horses, but Chrome wasn't one of them. Chrome has three straight races with only a third to show for it.

[wiffleball whizz]

CC is 3yo champ.

SA Derby
KY Derby
Preakness
photo in the Classic.

Bayern did not win any major 3yo races.

Agree.....

[classhandicapper]

Bayern over Chrome is a no brainer for me. He beat him on the square two straight and won the BC Classic. Yes, he fouled some horses, but Chrome wasn't one of them. Chrome has three straight races with only a third to show for it.

I agree who is going to get it, but I think Chrome has been the better horse and was the better horse on Saturday.

Bayern's 3 biggest wins have come with some combination of a biased track, loose soft lead, or very good racing luck. (usually more than one). But since I don't think voters should (or do) think in terms of how trips impact results and figures, it won't matter.

(It's 2-1 Bayern head to head, he won the big dance, but offsetting that is Chrome has a 3-2 edge in Grade 1s).

[cj]

I agree who is going to get it, but I think Chrome has been the better horse.

Bayern's 3 biggest wins have come with some combination of a biased track, loose soft lead, or very good racing luck. (usually more than one). But since I don't think voters should (or do) think in terms of how trips impact results and figures, it won't matter.

(It's 2-1 head to head and Chrome has a 3-2 edge in Grade 1s).

The Classic counts more though, you know that. It is against older horses and much later in the year. Unrestricted races always carry more weight, and none more than the BC Classic.

[classhandicapper]

The Classic counts more though, you know that. It is against older horses and much later in the year. Unrestricted races always carry more weight, and none more than the BC Classic.

I agree on both that and how they will vote.

I still think Chrome is the better horse. ;)

[horses4courses]

HOY is so subjective when the contest is close.

They shouldn't bother awarding it unless it's a clear cut decision.

[DeltaLover]

Bayern over Chrome is a no brainer for me. He beat him on the square two straight and won the BC Classic. Yes, he fouled some horses, but Chrome wasn't one of them. Chrome has three straight races with only a third to show for it.

I completely agree

[OTM Al]

Why must this be considered a 2 horse race? I am surprised if anyone gets a majority of the votes because you should also throw it

Untapable 7-6-0-0, 3 Gr1 wins
Main Sequence 4-4-0-0, 4 Gr 1 wins
Wise Dan 4-4-0-0, 3 Gr 1 wins

Chrome won the first half of the year, but second half not so much. Bayern was erratic and has a tainted BC Classic win. Untapable was the most consistent for the full year and Main Sequence has the strongest Gr 1 resume and had a tougher task at the BC. Wise Dan is Wise Dan. They should all get votes as well.

[letswastemoney]

Why must this be considered a 2 horse race? I am surprised if anyone gets a majority of the votes because you should also throw it

Untapable 7-6-0-0, 3 Gr1 wins
Main Sequence 4-4-0-0, 4 Gr 1 wins
Wise Dan 4-4-0-0, 3 Gr 1 wins

Chrome won the first half of the year, but second half not so much. Bayern was erratic and has a tainted BC Classic win. Untapable was the most consistent for the full year and Main Sequence has the strongest Gr 1 resume and had a tougher task at the BC. Wise Dan is Wise Dan. They should all get votes as well.Untapable lost to Bayern by a large margin. Why not just give it to Bayern then? I'd rather give it to the better horse and Bayern faced better horses all year in addition to his wins.

[ArlJim78]

I agree, it shouldn't be a two horse race. No way could I vote for Bayern.
The BCC normally carries big weight but this one was tainted and he had some big flops along the way. Main Sequence or Wise Dan are more worthy.

[OTM Al]

Untapable lost to Bayern by a large margin. Why not just give it to Bayern then? I'd rather give it to the better horse and Bayern faced better horses all year in addition to his wins.

And Bayern got smoked a time or two as well and round and round you go. Just saying it is silly to only consider male horses who ran either in the TC races or in the BC Classic.

[horses4courses]

This thread is proof in itself.
There will not be a winner of HOY this year that 50% will approve of.

Case closed.

[OTM Al]

This thread is proof in itself.
There will not be a winner of HOY this year that 50% will approve of.

Case closed.

Yep. Getting 40% of the vote should do it this year easy and may not take that much.

[letswastemoney]

And Bayern got smoked a time or two as well and round and round you go. Just saying it is silly to only consider male horses who ran either in the TC races or in the BC Classic.Yes, against open company.

What if Bayern had Untapable's schedule? We don't know because Bayern was never allowed in Untapable's races. But, Untapable was allowed to enter most of Bayern's races.

The whole idea of counting a female G1 as equal to a male G1 is silly. There's no other way to put it.

[burnsy]

[QUOTE=Grits]http://www.drf.com/news/horse-year-still-debate

A lot of interesting comments follow the piece, from the most recent, down to the first. The stewards may have cost Bayern HOY honors, as he was well on track until Saturday. Don't know when, in recent years, people have been this angry. JMO.

Of course people are pissed. What was expected? Millions of people saw it. People try to candy coat it like there's bumping like that in every race at the start. People are not dumb, they saw it and know that's not true. They know a contender and the other main speed got taken out. It doesn't matter who they parade out there to say it was the proper call. Everyone saw it. They are trying to tell people that their eyesight is a lie. Its hilarious, the stupidity on the face of it. They would of been better off admitting a mistake was made. Because lying just makes people more angry. I never cared for those end of year honors because many years it is subjective as already mentioned. But if they want to see people have a hemorrhoid on the social media.....make Bayern HOY......it will be blast to see how people feel and what they say. Now they are going to try to convince people that the win was totally on the up and up.............that's rich........ :lol:

[lamboguy]

this non-call is a very controversial one no matter how you look at it. for HOY purposes it will be interesting what the voters vote for because if you take away the bump BAYERN is the winner.

i can't wait to see if this gets voted in a different direction. if they wanted to turn this negative chapter into a positive one, they should initiate a one time invitational race to the top 3 year olds by the end of the year some place and let the horses settle this thing out, the humans certainly can't.

[ReplayRandall]

Why must this be considered a 2 horse race? I am surprised if anyone gets a majority of the votes because you should also throw it

Untapable 7-6-0-0, 3 Gr1 wins
Main Sequence 4-4-0-0, 4 Gr 1 wins
Wise Dan 4-4-0-0, 3 Gr 1 wins

Chrome won the first half of the year, but second half not so much. Bayern was erratic and has a tainted BC Classic win. Untapable was the most consistent for the full year and Main Sequence has the strongest Gr 1 resume and had a tougher task at the BC. Wise Dan is Wise Dan. They should all get votes as well.


OTM Al, your post is absolutely spot-on........:ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

OTM Al, your post is absolutely spot-on........:ThmbUp:

Honestly I find the whole debate kind of absurd. Guess this time of year is racing's silly season. To be honest, I think Palace Malice was the best that ran this year with Wise Dan a close second and I would rank Hootenany third, though his biggest achievements were in Europe. I look forward to seeing what he can do next year more than any other. Would love to see a US based horse take the 2000 Guineas. Might make people remember a mile is a Classic distance. Too bad people have to argue and then get rude as they do so often. It is a fun game.

[Some_One]

What were Goldencents final record for the year?

[horses4courses]

Honestly I find the whole debate kind of absurd. Guess this time of year is racing's silly season. To be honest, I think Palace Malice was the best that ran this year with Wise Dan a close second and I would rank Hootenany third, though his biggest achievements were in Europe. I look forward to seeing what he can do next year more than any other. Would love to see a US based horse take the 2000 Guineas. Might make people remember a mile is a Classic distance. Too bad people have to argue and then get rude as they do so often. It is a fun game.

If there is one trainer who could pull off a US 2000 Guineas win,
it's Wesley Ward. A horse shipping to Newmarket from Florida
in April for a race in early May could have a huge seasoning edge.
They just might be tempted.

Only a handful of books quote Hootenany for the Guineas, mostly 25-1.

[BlinkersOn]

Yes, against open company.

What if Bayern had Untapable's schedule? We don't know because Bayern was never allowed in Untapable's races. But, Untapable was allowed to enter most of Bayern's races.

The whole idea of counting a female G1 as equal to a male G1 is silly. There's no other way to put it.

Really? Did you really say that? How do you account for the fillies that won over the males in the Kentucky Derby? How do you account for Zenyatta being better then the males?

[Some_One]

Really? Did you really say that? How do you account for the fillies that won over the males in the Kentucky Derby? How do you account for Zenyatta being better then the males?

I think there are many here who would challenge that statement, including me, but I'm sure PA doesn't want another Z vs RA/everyone flame war on here.

[horses4courses]

I think there are many here who would challenge that statement, including me, but I'm sure PA doesn't want another Z vs RA/everyone flame war on here.

She beat all but one she faced, right?
2 Classics....hmmm....that's around a 95% success rate.

[Tom]

HOY is so subjective when the contest is close.

They shouldn't bother awarding it unless it's a clear cut decision.

And unless the customers get a say in the voting.
The OY part of this is always forgotten.
Just put HOY in the conditions of the Classic and save time.

[OTM Al]

If there is one trainer who could pull off a US 2000 Guineas win,
it's Wesley Ward. A horse shipping to Newmarket from Florida
in April for a race in early May could have a huge seasoning edge.
They just might be tempted.

Only a handful of books quote Hootenany for the Guineas, mostly 25-1.

I think I saw that they were thinking about doing a prep at Keeneland in April. I'm not sure though if the seasoning will matter much as often the top ones over there are taking the race first out for the year. Sea the Stars, Camelot and Dawn Approach in recent years fall into this category while others such as Frankel, Makfi and Night of Thunder had one prep. Depends who's ready to roll in May next year really, but respect the effort.

[NY BRED]

SHARED BELIEF.

WHY? aside from winning seven straight races, including beating
older horses in the Pacific Classic, he demonstrated his class
finishing fourth by several lengths despite the severe bumping incident.

Bring on the criticism and rants , but inmho, eliminating
Bayern from HOY will serve a lesson to leading trainers and
jockeys and STEWARDS to avoid placing other horses and jockeys
at risk in the state of California.

[Stillriledup]

I don't always care about my horse of the year, but when i do, i prefer him to not stop on a dime when things don't go exactly his way.

[rastajenk]

I believe it's a good thing for racing to have a divided opinion on something like Horse of the Year. If it were merely a points-based honorific, nobody would really care. Being subjective, it gets the blood up and carries the passion through a couple of uneventful months in the racing calendar.

[tucker6]

I agree on both that and how they will vote.

I still think Chrome is the better horse. ;)
In your opinion, is Chrome better or worse now than in May, and conversely, are the other horses like Bayern better now than in May? To me, Chrome is NOT better than Bayern by virtue of head-to-head races. You are what your record says you are, and what happened five months ago has less bearing than what happened last week. I personally believe Chrome could and should have done better this year, but has been mismanaged to a degree, and they got less out of him than they could have gotten.

[camourous]

Don't they narrow it down to 3 horses when they vote? Or at least tell you the 3 it's between? California Chrome probably won't be or at least he shouldn't be in that final 3.

[ultracapper]

In your opinion, is Chrome better or worse now than in May, and conversely, are the other horses like Bayern better now than in May? To me, Chrome is NOT better than Bayern by virtue of head-to-head races. You are what your record says you are, and what happened five months ago has less bearing than what happened last week. I personally believe Chrome could and should have done better this year, but has been mismanaged to a degree, and they got less out of him than they could have gotten.

I feel like they milked that horse for everything he had, and for him to have a successful 4yo campaign, Sherman will have to prove to be an outstanding horseman again, because the crowd has definitely caught up.

[ultracapper]

Not diminishing the TC in anyway, but those races are run relatively early in the 3yo season, not to mention how early they are run in a race horse's career. Many of the KD, Preak, and Belmont winners that weren't sent to the breeder immediately, particularly of recent years, have had ordinary stake/handicap careers after Labor Day of their 3yo season.

[Grits]

Not diminishing the TC in anyway, but those races are run relatively early in the 3yo season, not to mention how early they are run in a race horse's career. Many of the KD, Preak, and Belmont winners that weren't sent to the breeder immediately, particularly of recent years, have had ordinary stake/handicap careers after Labor Day of their 3yo season.

Didn't bet this horse to win, but used him in an exacta. In fairness, based on his performance on Saturday, I'm not sure one can determine, at this point, that a four year old campaign for him will be unsuccessful. I thought he ran well.

Now and then, horses become champions regardless who trains them. One can be brilliant. One can be more naturally gifted, more talented than their trainer. This is my thought.. on Bayern

[Tom]

I don't get to vote and don't get anything out of the whole thing, so I really don't give a rat's ass who gets it.

But I think Vicar's In Trouble should get it. He ran so hard trying to keep up with the Dirt Mile winner he had to vanned of exhausted.

No quitter, this guy!

[PaceAdvantage]

And Bayern got smoked a time or two as well and round and round you go. Just saying it is silly to only consider male horses who ran either in the TC races or in the BC Classic.I agree...especially in a year such as this.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, against open company.

What if Bayern had Untapable's schedule? We don't know because Bayern was never allowed in Untapable's races. But, Untapable was allowed to enter most of Bayern's races.

The whole idea of counting a female G1 as equal to a male G1 is silly. There's no other way to put it.It's a fallacy to think HOY is awarded to the horse who in the voter's estimation is capable of beating every other horse currently racing in the United States. That's not the intent of the award.

Do you really think the 2yo Secretariat would have been able to beat every older horse racing that year? Favorite Trick in his year? :lol:

HOY is the horse who did the most at the top of the game. I consider G1 females to be part of "the top of the game," even though they are not going to beat every male out there...

[tucker6]

It's a fallacy to think HOY is awarded to the horse who in the voter's estimation is capable of beating every other horse currently racing in the United States. That's not the intent of the award.

Do you really think the 2yo Secretariat would have been able to beat every older horse racing that year? Favorite Trick in his year? :lol:

HOY is the horse who did the most at the top of the game. I consider G1 females to be part of "the top of the game," even though they are not going to beat every male out there...
fair points.

[ILovetheInner]

It's a fallacy to think HOY is awarded to the horse who in the voter's estimation is capable of beating every other horse currently racing in the United States. That's not the intent of the award.

Do you really think the 2yo Secretariat would have been able to beat every older horse racing that year? Favorite Trick in his year? :lol:

HOY is the horse who did the most at the top of the game. I consider G1 females to be part of "the top of the game," even though they are not going to beat every male out there...

Very true. It's also not a science, but an opinion, although I am sure any individual would have reasoning for their vote. This has been a crappy year in the public view for racing.....the Asmussen tape in spring, the sweet story line turned abrasive by CC's owners heading into summer, and then to finish it all off the controversy in the BCC. I don't think Bayern will win the 3yo title as he will be voted against by the court of popular opinion, vs the SA ruling. I think there will be pause with giving it to an Asmussen-trained runner this year. I think thankfully in the eyes of many, Main Sequence has put together a campaign that will allow everyone to dart the whole mess of it....perfect G1 season.

[ultracapper]

It's a fallacy to think HOY is awarded to the horse who in the voter's estimation is capable of beating every other horse currently racing in the United States. That's not the intent of the award.

Do you really think the 2yo Secretariat would have been able to beat every older horse racing that year? Favorite Trick in his year? :lol:

HOY is the horse who did the most at the top of the game. I consider G1 females to be part of "the top of the game," even though they are not going to beat every male out there...
Zenyatta

[Some_One]

It's a fallacy to think HOY is awarded to the horse who in the voter's estimation is capable of beating every other horse currently racing in the United States. That's not the intent of the award.

Do you really think the 2yo Secretariat would have been able to beat every older horse racing that year? Favorite Trick in his year? :lol:

HOY is the horse who did the most at the top of the game. I consider G1 females to be part of "the top of the game," even though they are not going to beat every male out there...

But Rachael set the bar pretty high for what a 3yr filly should do to earn HOY.

[Stillriledup]

Zenyatta

Z almost won the BC Classic TWICE and people were screaming from the rooftops that she was an unworthy HOY winner.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not an awards guy, so don't murder me on this post:

top3 HOY candidates:
Bayern = He won the Classic, effectively "winning" a close male division etc...
Main Sequence = BC Turf, 4G1s in all, If he's not eligible why the hell have a turf division?
Tapiture = Dominant in her division , Top Sire, this is what racing is all about.


3yo male = California Chrome = he won the 'division' that defines the 3yo year.

[Stillriledup]

I'm not an awards guy, so don't murder me on this post:

top3 HOY candidates:
Bayern = He won the Classic, effectively "winning" a close male division etc...
Main Sequence = BC Turf, 4G1s in all, If he's not eligible why the hell have a turf division?
Tapiture = Dominant in her division , Top Sire, this is what racing is all about.


3yo male = California Chrome = he won the 'division' that defines the 3yo year.

Its hard for me to think a horse who has lost 22% of races in his campaign by more than 20 lengths a worthy HOY candidate.

[Redboard]

What were Goldencents final record for the year?

Two wins and two seconds. I don't believe that would make him a candidate.

[horses4courses]

Interesting to see Equibase posting a poll on their website for HOY.
Bayern didn't make the ballot.

405 votes cast - current % in brackets

If Horse of the Year was determined today, who would get your vote?

California Chrome (25%)
Main Sequence (14%)
Shared Belief (8%)
Untapable (23%)
Wise Dan (20%)
Other (8%)

[Greyfox]

Interesting to see Equibase posting a poll on their website for HOY.
Bayern didn't make the ballot.


Equibase blocked him right at the start eh. :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Equibase blocked him right at the start eh. :rolleyes:

Pretty glaring omission, alright

[Redboard]

Not to give Bayern the three-year-old Eclipse award would be like giving the Lombardi trophy to the loser of the Super Bowl because you didn't like a pass-interference non-call in the first quarter. Now HOY might be a different matter. Main Sequence will get a lot of votes IMO.

[Jens]

Wow!! I think HOY should easily go to Main Sequence. The shocking thing to me is that anyone could even consider not giving the 3yo title to California Chrome!! The main races for 3yos are the triple crown. The only other really huge race is the BC Classic. To even consider Bayern means the PA Derby is more important than the Kentucky Derby or Preakness:bang: Or does the first half of the year not count for a yearly award?? CC won the Derby and Preakness. He finished 4th after being injured two jumps out of the gate in the Belmont and he got beat a neck in the Classic. Some people may not realize that Bayern ran in the Preakness because he was so far back!! Have they changed the rules on HOY or yearly champions? After all, not one BC Classic winner in the last five years has been voted HOY!!! Was voting Rachel a mistake in 2009?????

[chadk66]

I think consistency is a huge part of HOY. Pretty hard to be more consistent than four for four or three for three.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I pretty much lost interest in the Horse of the Year banter in 1987 when Theatrical (8 for 9, with 6 G1 wins though he might have been DQ'ed in a race) was stiffed in favor of the mule Ferdinand (4 for 12, with 3 G1 wins).

HOY is a political crock.

[JustRalph]

I pretty much lost interest in the Horse of the Year banter in 1987 when Theatrical (8 for 9, with 6 G1 wins though he might have been DQ'ed in a race) was stiffed in favor of the mule Ferdinand (4 for 12, with 3 G1 wins).

HOY is a political crock.

Wasn't Theatrical a turf horse? Is that why he was passed over?

That was long before I followed the game closely

[Fager Fan]

I think consistency is a huge part of HOY. Pretty hard to be more consistent than four for four or three for three.

Run so little, against so little, and it's not that hard to be consistent.

[cj]

Wasn't Theatrical a turf horse? Is that why he was passed over?

That was long before I followed the game closely

Yes, that is why, really tough back then for turf horses to win. I wouldn't exactly call Ferdinand a mule, but that is how things went back then. I agree he didn't deserve Horse of the Year.

[horses4courses]

HOY is a political crock.

Agreed.
I don't see the need for it, either.
Especially when 5 out of 10 people can't agree on a choice.

What's the point?
After the choice is made, 6 out of the 10 will say it's wrong.

Meaningless fluff.

[QTwithTQ]

Interesting article...

Why it would be an injustice if Bayern were named Horse of the Year (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-it-would-be-injustice-if-bayern-were-named-horse-year)

[tucker6]

Interesting article...

Why it would be an injustice if Bayern were named Horse of the Year (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-it-would-be-injustice-if-bayern-were-named-horse-year)
The article spends most of the time off on a tangent about the BCC being called a world championship. His only point on Bayern is that as a handicapper, another horse would be favored the next time they raced. So what? CC keeps getting bet down and keeps losing. Losing by a neck is still losing. I personally do not value the TC series higher than the races in the second half of the year, when there are several opportunities for the 3 year olds to race with older horses. How many times do we see a horse mature from spring to fall. Plenty. Why should we cut off the 3 year old HOY race in June then?

[DeltaLover]

Interesting article...

Why it would be an injustice if Bayern were named Horse of the Year (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-it-would-be-injustice-if-bayern-were-named-horse-year)

In my opinion the author does not understand racing very well.. Arguments like the following are at least hilarious:


Suffice to say, Shared Belief remains the best horse to have taken part in the 2014 Classic, and if he isn’t recognised as such in post-season awards it will be an injustice.



If Bayern met Shared Belief again, odds makers, such as Coral in the UK, would favour the latter because it likely that he is the better horse (Coral chief odds maker James Knight has confirmed as much to me).



It might be harmless to proclaim Bayern as winner of the so-called World Championship but it is non-scientific to use this as the basis for asserting he deserves to be regarded as Horse of the Year.

[rastajenk]

Interesting article...

Why it would be an injustice if Bayern were named Horse of the Year (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-it-would-be-injustice-if-bayern-were-named-horse-year)
He used the word "probabilistic." :jump:

[classhandicapper]

If you reran the Classic 3 weeks from now I don't think there's any chance Bayern would be the favorite unless the surface was playing the same way.

IMHO, most people would discount Bayern's win as being partially the result of the speedway surface and partly the result of the start. Those that were negative on him going into the race would probably upgrade a bit from their original assessment. He wouldn't be 6.10-1 again, but he wouldn't be the favorite either.

They'd upgrade Toast of NY a lot because he came into the race with major questions about surface and to a lesser degree whether he could fire another race as big as his Pacific Classic. Now that's he's answered those questions, he'd get bet much heavier.

Shared Belief would be the favorite again, but milder this time. People would be willing to toss his Classic to some degree because of his trip, but I think some people came away realizing he's not quite as good as they thought based on the ground hyped performance in the Awesome Again.

CA Chrome would get bet similarly because he answered questions about whether he could recover his best form, but it wasn't good enough.

[Stillriledup]

If you reran the Classic 3 weeks from now I don't think there's any chance Bayern would be the favorite unless the surface was playing the same way.

IMHO, most people would discount Bayern's win as being partially the result of the speedway surface and partly the result of the start. Those that were negative on him going into the race would probably upgrade a bit from their original assessment. He wouldn't be 6.10-1 again, but he wouldn't be the favorite either.

They'd upgrade Toast of NY a lot because he came into the race with major questions about surface and to a lesser degree whether he could fire another race as big as his Pacific Classic. Now that's he's answered those questions, he'd get bet much heavier.

Shared Belief would be the favorite again, but milder this time. People would be willing to toss his Classic to some degree because of his trip, but I think some people came away realizing he's not quite as good as they thought based on the ground hyped performance in the Awesome Again.

CA Chrome would get bet similarly because he answered questions about whether he could recover his best form, but it wasn't good enough.

This is a fantastic point, Bayern would not be the favorite....so, why should he be considered "best horse" (aka horse of the year)

This was the same argument i used with Z and Blame, if they ran the race 3 weeks later, Z would be a strong favorite again.

[classhandicapper]

This is a fantastic point, Bayern would not be the favorite....so, why should he be considered "best horse" (aka horse of the year)

This was the same argument i used with Z and Blame, if they ran the race 3 weeks later, Z would be a strong favorite again.

There are 2 questions here.

1. Who is the best horse?

2. Who deserves HOTY?

#1 - I'd empty my pockets against Bayern at 10F on an honest track with another shot at a clean break.

#2 - I'm not a huge fan of voters using speed figures, pace figures, trips, bias etc.... as part of the process of voting because you'll come to a different conclusion depending on whose figures you use and how well you interpret these things. I would prefer that people vote on accomplishments.

If I had a vote (and I don't), I'd hold my nose and vote for Bayern or I'd break my own rule. I don't mean that in a demeaning way. IMO, Bayern is an excellent racehorse. IMHO, he's just not best horse going 10F. He may be the 4th or 5th best 3yo at classic distances.

Lost in the conversation is that Tonalist had no shot on that track the way the race developed, but he was they only horse that closed OK. Run that race and CD or BEL and the result would have been WAY different and he might have been right there.

[Stillriledup]

There are 2 questions here.

1. Who is the best horse?

2. Who deserves HOTY?

#1 - I'd empty my pockets against Bayern at 10F on an honest track with another shot at a clean break.

#2 - I'm not a huge fan of voters using speed figures, pace figures, trips, bias etc.... as part of the process of voting because you'll come to a different conclusion depending on whose figures you use and how well you interpret these things. I would prefer that people vote on accomplishments.

If I had a vote (and I don't), I'd hold my nose and vote for Bayern or I'd break my own rule. I don't mean that in a demeaning way. IMO, Bayern is an excellent racehorse. IMHO, he's just not best horse going 10F. He may be the 4th or 5th best 3yo at classic distances.

Lost in the conversation is that Tonalist had no shot on that track the way the race developed, but he was they only horse that closed OK. Run that race and CD or BEL and the result would have been WAY different and he might have been right there.

My problem with Bayern as HOY is that when he loses, he just quits. Its hard to have a one dimensional horse who quits when things don't go exactly his way, as HOY when Wise Dan is the horse getting replaced.

[cj]

My problem with Bayern as HOY is that when he loses, he just quits. Its hard to have a one dimensional horse who quits when things don't go exactly his way, as HOY when Wise Dan is the horse getting replaced.

You mean once, in the Travers? Surely you don't count the Preakness where he was completely eliminated at the start?

[Tom]

What goes around comes around? :rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

You mean once, in the Travers? Surely you don't count the Preakness where he was completely eliminated at the start?

All i know is when i look at the PPs, i see 2 race where he was virtually distanced. And yeah, i mean all his races, i did add "when things don't go his way" so maybe getting bumped falls under that umbrella.

I'm sure there are other HOY worthy candidates who didn't lose by 20 lengths 2 separate times. There's gotta be one, right?

[cj]

All i know is when i look at the PPs, i see 2 race where he was virtually distanced. And yeah, i mean all his races, i did add "when things don't go his way" so maybe getting bumped falls under that umbrella.

I'm sure there are other HOY worthy candidates who didn't lose by 20 lengths 2 separate times. There's gotta be one, right?

I hope you handicap with similar diligence since betting is a competition.

[thespaah]

Why must this be considered a 2 horse race? I am surprised if anyone gets a majority of the votes because you should also throw it

Untapable 7-6-0-0, 3 Gr1 wins
Main Sequence 4-4-0-0, 4 Gr 1 wins
Wise Dan 4-4-0-0, 3 Gr 1 wins

Chrome won the first half of the year, but second half not so much. Bayern was erratic and has a tainted BC Classic win. Untapable was the most consistent for the full year and Main Sequence has the strongest Gr 1 resume and had a tougher task at the BC. Wise Dan is Wise Dan. They should all get votes as well.
Good call on Main Sequence. Turf specialists, unless they get a lot of publicity, get the short shrift.

[Stillriledup]

I hope you handicap with similar diligence since betting is a competition.

Handicapping and electing HOY are two different things. Horses who are "flakes" and decide to run hard when the mood strikes them are all things i take into consideration.

[Bullet Plane]

I agree with the article... this is about the most difficult year that I can think of... with respect to HOY.

You could just go down the earnings list. But that would be stupid. Do that every year and don't even have voting.. if that is the way you want to do it.

I would lean towards Untapable who won the major three year old races, and then beat in older in the BC distaff.

You could say, well, she didn't beat the horses like Rachel, ...
but this is a different kind of year...

It's close, and the turf horse Main Sequence is right in the mix. three grade 1 wins prior to beating the best of Europe in the BC turf... that just doesn't happen very often...

[cj]

I agree with the article... this is about the most difficult year that I can think of... with respect to HOY.

You could just go down the earnings list. But that would be stupid. Do that every year and don't even have voting.. if that is the way you want to do it.

I would lean towards Untapable who won the major three year old races, and then beat in older in the BC distaff.

You could say, well, she didn't beat the horses like Rachel, ...
but this is a different kind of year...

It's close, and the turf horse Main Sequence is right in the mix. three grade 1 wins prior to beating the best of Europe in the BC turf... that just doesn't happen very often...

The biggest problem with Untapable is she was buried by Bayern.

[chadk66]

there were horses that came from well off the pace to win on Saturday were there not?

[DeltaLover]

For a female to be voted HOY, she definitely needs to beat top open companies, something that U was proven incapable, so I do not even consider her one of the candidates..

[Redboard]

Has anyone ever gotten HOY only running four times? Wise Dan had six starts in 2012 and seven in 2013. Zenyatta had six starts in 2010.
Six is a lot bigger than four.

[OTM Al]

Has anyone ever gotten HOY only running four times? Wise Dan had six starts in 2012 and seven in 2013. Zenyatta had six starts in 2010.
Six is a lot bigger than four.

Ghostzapper

[Redboard]

Dick Jerardi , one of the voters, said today he'll probably vote for CC. And he said he talked to some other voters that are sour on Bayern.

[cj]

Dick Jerardi , one of the voters, said today he'll probably vote for CC. And he said he talked to some other voters that are sour on Bayern.

The same Chrome that had no trouble and was at best third best in the Classic?

[clocker7]

Questions: would Bayern have won without the aid of the frontside tailwind that helped him at both the start and the finish? Did any of the figs suppliers take it into account?

[cj]

Questions: would Bayern have won without the aid of the frontside tailwind that helped him at both the start and the finish? Did any of the figs suppliers take it into account?

Is this really something that should go into a Horse of the Year thread, whether a horse should be penalized in voting because of wind?

[clocker7]

Is this really something that should go into a Horse of the Year thread, whether a horse should be penalized in voting because of wind?
From a few comments that I have read from various press figures, they are giving Chrome credit for his close miss, and probably are taking every smidgeon of things into account to rationalize their vote/non-vote. This might be a case of Zenyatta over Blame, where the closing horse was perceived to not have lost much stature.

But I am OK to have my comment stricken, for purity's sake.

[cj]

From a few comments that I have read from various press figures, they are giving Chrome credit for his close miss, and probably are taking every smidgeon of things into account to rationalize their vote/non-vote. This might be a case of Zenyatta over Blame, where the closing horse was perceived to not have lost much stature.

But I am OK to have my comment stricken, for purity's sake.

It is fine, no worries, just think if voters want to take that route the break incident is more than enough.

[clocker7]

It is fine, no worries, just think if voters want to take that route the break incident is more than enough.
Agreed, there's no doubt that non-Bayern voters will include that uppermost in their minds.

But after the Z/Blame affair, there was every kind of nitpick used to state the cases for both horses. And I have a feeling that we're in store for months of the same. For me, the wind consideration is a standard, valid handicapping one that is more important than some of the other oddball ones that we're bound to read.

[cj]

Agreed, there's no doubt that non-Bayern voters will include that uppermost in their minds.

But after the Z/Blame affair, there was every kind of nitpick used to state the cases for both horses. And I have a feeling that we're in store for months of the same. For me, the wind consideration is a standard, valid handicapping one that is more important than some of the other oddball ones that we're bound to read.

Brief detour, isn't a tailwind helping all horses, and aren't those in front less likely to get the benefit since others behind them are blocking some of it?

[clocker7]

Brief detour, isn't a tailwind helping all horses, and aren't those in front less likely to get the benefit since others behind them are blocking some of it?
My own feeling is that if the wind had been reversed, where two legs meant facing it instead of vice versa, it would have had a more telling impact on a horse that tends to fade. For any such horse in any distance race, for that matter.

As far as the final stretch run was concerned, not much was blocking the tailwind for the first three finishers.

CC proved that he could win a KD with the opposite conditions, so he probably can run creditably either way. Bayern? A question mark .. and maybe incredibly lucky with the way the wind was blowing last Saturday.

A probative intangible, regardless.

[tucker6]

What are CC's accomplishments since May when immature three year olds and older horses came into play?

[Stillriledup]

What are CC's accomplishments since May when immature three year olds and older horses came into play?

Seems like its CC's fault that May is before November on the Calendar.

If the BCC was in May and the Ky Derby was run a week ago and CC won the Derby, would the conversation be exactly the same?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Seems like its CC's fault that May is before November on the Calendar.

If the BCC was in May and the Ky Derby was run a week ago and CC won the Derby, would the conversation be exactly the same?

If the BCC were held in May 2014, CC would have been soundly defeated by a still healthy field of older horses. Therefore, he wouldn't have distinguished himself in any way, shape or form. And if the Derby were run a week ago, I'm not so sure CC wins that either. So yes SRU, same conversation.

[Stillriledup]

If the BCC were held in May 2014, CC would have been soundly defeated by a still healthy field of older horses. Therefore, he wouldn't have distinguished himself in any way, shape or form. And if the Derby were run a week ago, I'm not so sure CC wins that either. So yes SRU, same conversation.

If the BCC was in May, CC would have lost by a nose like he did the other day. If the Derby was the other day, he wins just like he did in May. Im saying all things being equal except the dates on the calendar.

[Saratoga_Mike]

If the BCC was in May, CC would have lost by a nose like he did the other day. If the Derby was the other day, he wins just like he did in May. Im saying all things being equal except the dates on the calendar.

You're insane! I mean that in a nice way.

[Stillriledup]

You're insane! I mean that in a nice way.

Im just talking that people tend to give emphasis to events that happened more recently, none of us are getting any younger, May is a long time in the past! We can't let the "hype" of the BCC being run 1 week ago let that cloud our judgment, its horse of the year, not horse of the late year because we kinda forgot the early part of the year award.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Im just talking that people tend to give emphasis to events that happened more recently, none of us are getting any younger, May is a long time in the past! We can't let the "hype" of the BCC being run 1 week ago let that cloud our judgment, its horse of the year, not horse of the late year because we kinda forgot the early part of the year award.

CC v. this horse in May 2014....who wins?

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=BEL&dt=05/11/2014&ctry=USA&race=3

[Stillriledup]

CC v. this horse in May 2014....who wins?

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=BEL&dt=05/11/2014&ctry=USA&race=3

PM is better than CC and he's better than Bayern. So we want to give PM consideration? He was the actual best horse for a little while there in 2014, so he gets consideration, but i think HOY means you have to be "the best" as well as have been the Best all year.

[Saratoga_Mike]

PM is better than CC and he's better than Bayern. So we want to give PM consideration? He was the actual best horse for a little while there in 2014, so he gets consideration, but i think HOY means you have to be "the best" as well as have been the Best all year.

I wasn't suggesting PM should be HOY. I'm glad to see your personal definition of HOY, however, which would clearly rule out CC as he was only "the best" in the spring. And that "best-ness" was against a lousy crop of then 3-yr-old colts.

[Stillriledup]

I wasn't suggesting PM should be HOY. I'm glad to see your personal definition of HOY, however, which would clearly rule out CC as he was only "the best" in the spring. And that "best-ness" was against a lousy crop of then 3-yr-old colts.

I think the award goes to the actual best horse if that best horse was the best horse for more than a month or two.

Nobody really distinguished themselves this year, Wise Dan would have won again if he didnt have health issues, and PM certainly had a shot, but injuries derailed him too.

So, if the "best" horse hasn't stepped forward, you have to vote for the horse who "did the most".

To me, winning 2/3rds of the TC is good enough to grab the award....CC was a couple lengths away from winning the TC......so, he was essentially 2 lengths away from being a 100% sure thing to win the HOY.....does that 2 length defeat in the Belmont take him from a unanimous HOY winner to an also ran? Why are THOSE "2 lengths" so disasterous for CC?

[Saratoga_Mike]

I think the award goes to the actual best horse if that best horse was the best horse for more than a month or two.



Oh, because your prior post said you "think HOY means you have to be "the best" as well as have been the Best all year."

You changed your definition very quickly.

[Stillriledup]

Oh, because your prior post said you "think HOY means you have to be "the best" as well as have been the Best all year."

You changed your definition very quickly.

Its a fine line and no, my definition didn't change at all.

My definition is that the actual best horse wins it unless the best horse is only the best horse for a short period, like PM was. If the best horse doesn't distinguish himself, you have to look elsewhere.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Its a fine line and no, my definition didn't change at all.

My definition is that the actual best horse wins it unless the best horse is only the best horse for a short period, like PM was. If the best horse doesn't distinguish himself, you have to look elsewhere.

That clears up everything.

[OTM Al]

That clears up everything.
Like I said a while back, the whole thing is absurd. Racing's silly season..

[Stillriledup]

Like I said a while back, the whole thing is absurd. Racing's silly season..

Its silly for sure, but for some reason, its something we love to debate. Just like MVPs in pro sports, fans get really passionate about arguing for their guy to win an individual award. Why we act this way is anyone's guess.

[mostpost]

Let's look at each of the major races run by Bayern and California Chrome this year and analyze them.
We will start with California Chrome in the Grade 2 San Felipe. CC took the lead right out of the gate and cruised to an easy win. The time was fast.
Next we have CC in the Santa Anita Derby. This time he was off slowly and was in a little tight in the early going. Never the less he was quickly near the pace, took the lead on the far turn and drew away.

We turn now to Bayern in the Arkansas Derby. Bayern went right to lead but was challenged from the start and faded to third. Example #1 of how Bayern needs things to go just right. Two weeks later Bayern ran in the Derby Trial at one mile. Again he was challenged right from the start and was beaten (narrowly) by a horse who was much his inferior.

California Chrome then won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. I don't think we need to discuss those performances.

Bayern also ran in the Preakness. He did have trouble at the start and he does not like to race from behind. However, none of that excuses his finishing ninth in a field of eleven and it is pure speculation to think he would have beaten California Chrome with a good trip.

Next California Chrome ran in the Belmont Stakes. I do not know what effect his injury had on his performance. It could not have helped. I don't know the effect of Victor Espinoza's ride. It was not the best. I am not sure about the effects of the mile and a half distance. But California Chrome finished fourth beaten by 2 lengths. That is not a bad performance.

Back to Bayern. He won the Woody Stephens at seven furlongs as one would expect. Then he won the Haskell, once again leading without pressure and pulling away in the stretch. Following that was the Travers. Once again Bayern was pressured in the early going and once again he collapsed late-collapsed badly.

Now we come to the final two races of the year. First was the Pennsylvania Derby, the first race in 105 days for California Chrome. As usual Bayern goes to the lead and no one goes with him. Of course he romps in a race that had two good horses in it, Bayern and California Chrome. And Chrome was not near his best.

Last we have the Breeders Cup Classic which has been sufficiently dissected here and elsewhere. I will just say that California Chrome closed three lengths on Bayern in the stretch.

Three Year old of the year? California Chrome
Horse of the year? California Chrome.

[ReplayRandall]

Three Year old of the year? California Chrome
Horse of the year? California Chrome.

Believe it or not Mostpost, you made a good case and I happen to agree, as CC has done more for the excitement of horse racing this year than any other. But, we both know that POLITICS come into play with this decision, and the powers that be, detest the owners of CC.............:(

[mostpost]

I wasn't suggesting PM should be HOY. I'm glad to see your personal definition of HOY, however, which would clearly rule out CC as he was only "the best" in the spring. And that "best-ness" was against a lousy crop of then 3-yr-old colts.
Would that be the same lousy group of 3-yr-old colts that Bayern finished third, second and ninth against between Apr. 12 and May 17; then finished last against in the Travers?

Yes, Bayern won three of his last four races, but his record before that was average at best. Even in the Haskell the competition was not the greatest.

[Stillriledup]

Let's look at each of the major races run by Bayern and California Chrome this year and analyze them.
We will start with California Chrome in the Grade 2 San Felipe. CC took the lead right out of the gate and cruised to an easy win. The time was fast.
Next we have CC in the Santa Anita Derby. This time he was off slowly and was in a little tight in the early going. Never the less he was quickly near the pace, took the lead on the far turn and drew away.

We turn now to Bayern in the Arkansas Derby. Bayern went right to lead but was challenged from the start and faded to third. Example #1 of how Bayern needs things to go just right. Two weeks later Bayern ran in the Derby Trial at one mile. Again he was challenged right from the start and was beaten (narrowly) by a horse who was much his inferior.

California Chrome then won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. I don't think we need to discuss those performances.

Bayern also ran in the Preakness. He did have trouble at the start and he does not like to race from behind. However, none of that excuses his finishing ninth in a field of eleven and it is pure speculation to think he would have beaten California Chrome with a good trip.

Next California Chrome ran in the Belmont Stakes. I do not know what effect his injury had on his performance. It could not have helped. I don't know the effect of Victor Espinoza's ride. It was not the best. I am not sure about the effects of the mile and a half distance. But California Chrome finished fourth beaten by 2 lengths. That is not a bad performance.

Back to Bayern. He won the Woody Stephens at seven furlongs as one would expect. Then he won the Haskell, once again leading without pressure and pulling away in the stretch. Following that was the Travers. Once again Bayern was pressured in the early going and once again he collapsed late-collapsed badly.

Now we come to the final two races of the year. First was the Pennsylvania Derby, the first race in 105 days for California Chrome. As usual Bayern goes to the lead and no one goes with him. Of course he romps in a race that had two good horses in it, Bayern and California Chrome. And Chrome was not near his best.

Last we have the Breeders Cup Classic which has been sufficiently dissected here and elsewhere. I will just say that California Chrome closed three lengths on Bayern in the stretch.

Three Year old of the year? California Chrome
Horse of the year? California Chrome.

You can't elevate a horse who folds up his tent and is beaten 20 lengths two separate times as HOY. You just can't do it.
Good writeup Mosty.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Would that be the same lousy group of 3-yr-old colts that Bayern finished third, second and ninth against between Apr. 12 and May 17; then finished last against in the Travers?

Yes, Bayern won three of his last four races, but his record before that was average at best. Even in the Haskell the competition was not the greatest.

I never suggested Bayern should be HOY, just that CC should not be HOY. I think you've made some good points on this topic, although horses can mature and become better (obviously happened with Bayern). Maybe we should expand our considerations beyond CC and Bayern?

[Redboard]

Let's look at ..........Now we come to the final two races of the year. First was the Pennsylvania Derby, the first race in 105 days for California Chrome. As usual Bayern goes to the lead and no one goes with him. Of course he romps in a race that had two good horses in it, Bayern and California Chrome. And Chrome was not near his best. .............e.

I must mention that Tapiture was also in that field, who won four graded stakes this year and was a solid second last weekend in thq BC Dirt mile.

[Redboard]

I believe their ridiculous comments after the Belmont could have an effect on the voting. A horse doesn't receive the award, the connections do. A horse hasno need for a trophy or plaque hanging in his stall. Some people look at HOY like this: Which horse has brought the most new fans to the sport? I know some of you may laugh at this but when you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Of course each division has its own award, which should be given solely to what was done on the track. But HOY, why shouldnt this be given to the best ambassador? Ok, its a popularity contest, there I said it. But, its what this dying sport needs. Now I know some of you think these awards are silly in the first place, but you probably shouldnt be reading this thread, if you do.

[PaceAdvantage]

California Chrome as horse of the year would be a far bigger joke than anything the stewards did on BC Saturday.

I would vote for Untapable 100x before I would vote for CC for HOY...how ridiculous does it get?

[ReplayRandall]

How ridiculous does it get?


Believe it or not, HOY may be decided by the Gr-1 Clark Handicap, Churchill Downs Nov.28th. That's my call........

[classhandicapper]

The same Chrome that had no trouble and was at best third best in the Classic?

In a rematch on a track that we might consider neutral as far as speed favoring tendencies goes, I think Chrome would have beaten Bayern on Classic day (not even counting the issues at the break).

I'm not making the case for voting for him, but if some people vote for who they think is better instead of who accomplished more, I think CC is going to get a lot of those votes.

All of Bayern's major wins (except the Woody Stephens sprinting) were bias aided, pace aided, or both. There are going to be people that hold that against him. I also personally know someone that has a vote whose first consideration is Grade 1s victories against males on dirt. With that category 3-2 in favor of CC, I expect that vote to come in on CC.

[classhandicapper]

Believe it or not, HOY may be decided by the Gr-1 Clark Handicap, Churchill Downs Nov.28th. That's my call........

Whose going?

I heard CC is not.

[ReplayRandall]

Whose going?

I heard CC is not.


Nominations close on Weds., should know entries list by Friday......

[AFilly4theAges]

ImHo,this was the year of the 3yo.And as far as stamina and endurance it was "Bayern"!

[cj]

In a rematch on a track that we might consider neutral as far as speed favoring tendencies goes, I think Chrome would have beaten Bayern on Classic day (not even counting the issues at the break).

I'm not making the case for voting for him, but if some people vote for who they think is better instead of who accomplished more, I think CC is going to get a lot of those votes.

All of Bayern's major wins (except the Woody Stephens sprinting) were bias aided, pace aided, or both. There are going to be people that hold that against him. I also personally know someone that has a vote whose first consideration is Grade 1s victories against males on dirt. With that category 3-2 in favor of CC, I expect that vote to come in on CC.

Pure speculation, when it comes to awards, results should matter, not what ifs. It is debatable the track was speed favoring in my opinion. Early on the card, yes, no doubt in my opinion. But later? Texas Red...Judy the Beauty, Better Lucky, etc.

I mean, it is dirt. Shockingly, every time a few front runners win on dirt it does not make a track speed biased. The more racing I watch and listen to commentators and bettors alike, the more I'm convinced people label track biases on how their bets fared as much as what is really happening on the track.

[clocker7]

California Chrome as horse of the year would be a far bigger joke than anything the stewards did on BC Saturday.

I would vote for Untapable 100x before I would vote for CC for HOY...how ridiculous does it get?
That is a doubled-over LOL post.

Fact: America's most valuable and respected horses are those who who run classic distances on dirt.

Fact; The most desired wins in America are the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Any others are secondary, and so far in the dust that they are almost pitiable.

In most years, HOY voters look FIRST to the classic dirt winners in order to determine a champion. And, in lesser years where no classic dirt champions seem worthy, they sometimes bolt to specialists whose overwhelming accomplishments against lesser horses provide escape hatches for an award that MUST given, regardless.

Sorry for your side, 2014 is not one of those years, imo. It featured several acceptable classic-winning colts of substantial merit; ones that would have kicked Untapable's ass to the moon; ones that didn't require swallowing the downscale results of sprints or turf mile races.

Deal with this: Bayern > Untapable; CC > Untapable; Shared Belief > Untapable. So why give an award to an inferior being? NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.

Gird thyself for something that sticks in your craw. Maybe the turf immigrant Main Sequence will prevail. But that's about the size of it.

[v j stauffer]

The HOY vote is about which horse's body of work and accomplishments warrant the honor.

First who didn't do enough. Why is obvious so I'll not spell it out.

While all GREAT performers Shared Belief, Untapable and Main Sequence have outstanding resumes but not quite enough to be HOY material.

Clearly this is a two horse race between Bayern and California Chrome.

Who did the most?

BAYERN

Haskell
Pennsylvania Derby
Breeders Cup Classic

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Santa Anita Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness

Racing luck or lack of in the Classic means nothing. Last time I checked the month of May occurs during the YEAR so that means nothing. Voting who you handicap as the best horse means nothing. Never has. Giants vs Patriots? It's entirely about which candidate accomplished the most.

My vote would go to CALIFORNIA CHROME in one of the closest whackers in HOY voting history. Totally respect anyone who would side with BAYERN.

No truth to the rumor I would choose CC because he won the last stakes I ever called :)

[Stillriledup]

The HOY vote is about which horse's body of work and accomplishments warrant the honor.

First who didn't do enough. Why is obvious so I'll not spell it out.

While all GREAT performers Shared Belief, Untapable and Main Sequence have outstanding resumes but not quite enough to be HOY material.

Clearly this is a two horse race between Bayern and California Chrome.

Who did the most?

BAYERN

Haskell
Pennsylvania Derby
Breeders Cup Classic

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Santa Anita Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness

Racing luck or lack of in the Classic means nothing. Last time I checked the month of May occurs during the YEAR so that means nothing. Voting who you handicap as the best horse means nothing. Never has. Giants vs Patriots? It's entirely about which candidate accomplished the most.

My vote would go to CALIFORNIA CHROME in one of the closest whackers in HOY voting history. Totally respect anyone who would side with BAYERN.

No truth to the rumor I would choose CC because he won the last stakes I ever called :)

Biggest races in America are the Classic and Derby. Bayern and CC have one each, so you can say they cancel each other out. BUT, CC was close in the Classic, he raced well. That gives him the edge.

[Bullet Plane]

1) California Chrome- the remarks his connections made on the Triple trail were without Class!

2) Bayern: the way the horse won the BC classic, by shoving the main contenders out of the way, even if not called a foul... sure did stink!



I think it will be a very interesting voting year.

I would hope the two horses in question will not be rewarded...

[v j stauffer]

1) California Chrome- the remarks his connections made on the Triple trail were without Class!

2) Bayern: the way the horse won the BC classic, by shoving the main contenders out of the way, even if not called a foul... sure did stink!



I think it will be a very interesting voting year.

I would hope the two horses in question will not be rewarded...

Evidently you read the Enquirer for your PP's and watch TMZ for your live horse racing coverage.

OY!

[ReplayRandall]

The HOY vote is about which horse's body of work and accomplishments warrant the honor.

First who didn't do enough. Why is obvious so I'll not spell it out.

While all GREAT performers Shared Belief, Untapable and Main Sequence have outstanding resumes but not quite enough to be HOY material.

Clearly this is a two horse race between Bayern and California Chrome.

Who did the most?

BAYERN

Haskell
Pennsylvania Derby
Breeders Cup Classic

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Santa Anita Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness

Racing luck or lack of in the Classic means nothing. Last time I checked the month of May occurs during the YEAR so that means nothing. Voting who you handicap as the best horse means nothing. Never has. Giants vs Patriots? It's entirely about which candidate accomplished the most.

My vote would go to CALIFORNIA CHROME in one of the closest whackers in HOY voting history. Totally respect anyone who would side with BAYERN.

No truth to the rumor I would choose CC because he won the last stakes I ever called :)

Thank you for your well thought out post. Unfortunately................you're wrong. From my previous post:
Believe it or not, HOY may be decided by the Gr-1 Clark Handicap, Churchill
Downs Nov.28th. That's my call............ and trust me, CC will not go, CD and owners of CC both hate each other. Bayern won't risk what he just won in the Classic.

[v j stauffer]

Thank you for your well thought out post. Unfortunately................you're wrong. From my previous post:
and trust me, CC will not go, CD and owners of CC both hate each other. Bayern won't risk what he just won in the Classic.

Your post says in your opinion HOY "may" be decided in the Clark. How does a speculative opinion lead to the conclusion I'm WRONG?

[ReplayRandall]

Your post says in your opinion HOY "may" be decided in the Clark. How does a speculative opinion lead to the conclusion I'm WRONG?


Happy days Vic, you found the "out" word in my post. You're a certifiable genius now.........You're still frickin' wrong.......Didn't change a damn thing.

[v j stauffer]

Happy days Vic, you found the "out" word in my post. You're a certifiable genius now.........You're still frickin' wrong.......Didn't change a damn thing.

I am certifiable. The Genius part makes you WRONG.

What I don't know is a lot.

[ReplayRandall]

I am certifiable. The Genius part makes you WRONG.

What I don't know is a lot.


We're two of kind then........We both made a call, now let's see who's right, even though it doesn't really matter......:cool:

[Valuist]

Horse of Year: 1) Bayern 2) Main Sequence

Horse of the Year is about accomplishments; not performance. If Bayern raced on inside biased tracks, that may matter in terms of judging his performances as a handicapper, but HoY is about accomplishments, and there, only the bottom line matters.

[v j stauffer]

Horse of Year: 1) Bayern 2) Main Sequence

Horse of the Year is about accomplishments; not performance. If Bayern raced on inside biased tracks, that may matter in terms of judging his performances as a handicapper, but HoY is about accomplishments, and there, only the bottom line matters.

I completely agree. All about accomplishments. Don't agree that 4 Grade 1 turf races is stronger than SA & KY Derby and Preakness.

[NY BRED]

The article spends most of the time off on a tangent about the BCC being called a world championship. His only point on Bayern is that as a handicapper, another horse would be favored the next time they raced. So what? CC keeps getting bet down and keeps losing. Losing by a neck is still losing. I personally do not value the TC series higher than the races in the second half of the year, when there are several opportunities for the 3 year olds to race with older horses. How many times do we see a horse mature from spring to fall. Plenty. Why should we cut off the 3 year old HOY race in June then?

TO MY POINT PER PREVIOUS POSTS.

THANKS FOR SHARING

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[NY BRED]

There was a typo in my last post, I meant to state I'm in complete
agreement with the article from Racing Commentary on the
injustice of giving HOY to Bayern.

Regardless of the various arguments of who should be awarded
HOY, I'm hoping the VOTERS acknowledge the injustice of
the a^^%^holes named stewards who have stated the
bumping/slamming incident did not affect the outcome of the race,
which is an insult to the owners and trainers of the balance of the field.

My second point is an investigation or at the very least a public
interview with Mike Smith who apparently reversed his interview
minutes after the race, claiming Bayern cost him the race,

Politics to win more mounts from Baffert? Hopefully, that
statement will impact the Voters mind when they cast their ballots.

[Observer]

From start to finish, on the racetrack and throughout the year, Untapable easily handled her division. A quality of a true Horse of the Year champion.

Beginning in February, her 6 wins came from 7 starts this year, all in graded stakes. Untapable won 4 Grade 1 races, including the 2 most prestigious races for females - The Kentucky Oaks and The Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her other 2 Grade 1 wins are The Mother Goose and The Cotillion.

Untapable stepped out of her division once in an attempt against boys. In The G1 Haskell, she finished a well-beaten fifth behind Bayern, who clearly has blemishes throughout his 10 starts this year. In his 6 wins, only 4 are graded stakes, only 2 are Grade 1s.

Main Sequence was unbeaten in 4 starts this year, all Grade 1 races. But he was not clearly the best of the turf division.

Wise Dan had a miraculous season winning all 4 of his turf starts, 3 of which are Grade 1 races and the other a Grade 2 at Saratoga. Interrupted by nearly 4 months in the middle of his 4 wins, two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan returned in Saratoga from colic surgery at the top of his game, only to have his season cut short by a fracture in October that eliminated him from a chance at taking The Breeders' Cup Mile for a 3rd consecutive year.

California Chrome certainly started the year on what looked to be the path to Horse of the Year, but has not won a race in 3 starts since The G1 Preakness in May.

Shared Belief was unbeaten in 4 starts this year prior to The Breeders' Cup Classic. But only 3 of those starts were graded stakes, the latter 2 being Grade 1 wins.

So Untapable did what the boys on dirt did within their division. She suffered a loss to them while they were taking turns losing to eachother throughout the year. In a year that carried turmoil and disarray within the divisions, dirt or turf, Untapable remained unflappable in her division.

[DeltaLover]

From start to finish, on the racetrack and throughout the year, Untapable easily handled her division. A quality of a true Horse of the Year champion.

Beginning in February, her 6 wins came from 7 starts this year, all in graded stakes. Untapable won 4 Grade 1 races, including the 2 most prestigious races for females - The Kentucky Oaks and The Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her other 2 Grade 1 wins are The Mother Goose and The Cotillion.

Untapable stepped out of her division once in an attempt against boys. In The G1 Haskell, she finished a well-beaten fifth behind Bayern, who clearly has blemishes throughout his 10 starts this year. In his 6 wins, only 4 are graded stakes, only 2 are Grade 1s.

Main Sequence was unbeaten in 4 starts this year, all Grade 1 races. But he was not clearly the best of the turf division.

Wise Dan had a miraculous season winning all 4 of his turf starts, 3 of which are Grade 1 races and the other a Grade 2 at Saratoga. Interrupted by nearly 4 months in the middle of his 4 wins, two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan returned in Saratoga from colic surgery at the top of his game, only to have his season cut short by a fracture in October that eliminated him from a chance at taking The Breeders' Cup Mile for a 3rd consecutive year.

California Chrome certainly started the year on what looked to be the path to Horse of the Year, but has not won a race in 3 starts since The G1 Preakness in May.

Shared Belief was unbeaten in 4 starts this year prior to The Breeders' Cup Classic. But only 3 of those starts were graded stakes, the latter 2 being Grade 1 wins.

So Untapable did what the boys on dirt did within their division. She suffered a loss to them while they were taking turns losing to eachother throughout the year. In a year that carried turmoil and disarray within the divisions, dirt or turf, Untapable remained unflappable in her division.

I do not agree at all about your views on Untapable. Although you are right about here dominating her division, she was also found inferior to open companies. Her connections seem to understand this and that's why the decided to not run her against the boys again. I would expect a female HOY to beat top tiered males and Untapable was not proven capable of doing so.. She is not Rachel, Havre or Zenyatta and there is no chance she will be elected HOY (not at least for this year)...

[classhandicapper]

Pure speculation, when it comes to awards, results should matter, not what ifs. It is debatable the track was speed favoring in my opinion. Early on the card, yes, no doubt in my opinion. But later? Texas Red...Judy the Beauty, Better Lucky, etc.

I mean, it is dirt. Shockingly, every time a few front runners win on dirt it does not make a track speed biased. The more racing I watch and listen to commentators and bettors alike, the more I'm convinced people label track biases on how their bets fared as much as what is really happening on the track.

I agree that most people are not very good at recognizing biases and use them as a excuse for their losers etc...

We would need a entire thread to discuss biases. I don't even want to have that discussion because that's one of the few areas I still seem to have a gambling edge.

But a lot of the disagreements come down to definitional issues. People label the same things differently.

What you often see at SA is not the same as what you often see at CD.

If SA is playing the way it often does, does that mean it's not biased?

If CD is playing the way it often does, does that mean it's not biased?

I would argue they both tend to be biased in different ways on a regular basis, but not relative to themselves, relative to the "norms" for dirt racing. I have bias notes for those 2 tracks way more often than most others.

Then there are degrees of bias.

Some people only note a bias when it's so strong it's dictating the results. IMO there are also biases that are just tilting the wheel.

In my notes, I called that day "S".

That means the track was more speed favoring than the average American racetrack, but the bias wasn't strong enough to totally dictate the results (that would be S+). It was strong enough to impact the results between similar horses.

[classhandicapper]

The standard for HOTY has generally been to favor dirt horses over turf horses and males over females unless the male dirt division was weak and there was total monster in another division.

Wise Dan, Zenyatta, Rachel, and to a lesser extent HDG were terrors and there haven't been many stand out dirt males recently. I don't think that's true this year. There are some good dirt male candidates. So I would eliminate the major turf horses and Untapable (despite them being excellent) because that has been the standard. I would focus on the 3yo males.

As good as Shared Belief is (you can make a case he's the best of them), I don't think he won enough big races to get the award.

That leaves Bayern and California Chrome.

It comes down to:

3 Grade 1 victories for CC vs 2 for Bayern.
Bayern winning the biggest strongest and most important race of the year.
Bayern beating CC 2-1 head to head.
How you feel about incorporating trips into the analysis.

I think Bayern is going to get the vote. That's who I would vote for, but I don't think he's the best 3yo, especially going 10F.

[PaceAdvantage]

I do not agree at all about your views on Untapable. Although you are right about here dominating her division, she was also found inferior to open companies. Her connections seem to understand this and that's why the decided to not run her against the boys again. I would expect a female HOY to beat top tiered males and Untapable was not proven capable of doing so.. She is not Rachel, Havre or Zenyatta and there is no chance she will be elected HOY (not at least for this year)...Not in a year like this, where there were NO dominant dirt males (nowhere near), in my opinion.

I don't see how ANYONE can get solidly behind Bayern, let alone California Chrome. I mean, come on man...California Chrome for HOY? Really?

That's the biggest joke going in my book at the moment...

[v j stauffer]

Not in a year like this, where there were NO dominant dirt males (nowhere near), in my opinion.

I don't see how ANYONE can get solidly behind Bayern, let alone California Chrome. I mean, come on man...California Chrome for HOY? Really?

That's the biggest joke going in my book at the moment...

I wouldn't take a lot of action against at your book. Agree or not I strongly believe he's most likely to win.

[DeltaLover]

Not in a year like this, where there were NO dominant dirt males (nowhere near), in my opinion.

I don't see how ANYONE can get solidly behind Bayern, let alone California Chrome. I mean, come on man...California Chrome for HOY? Really?

That's the biggest joke going in my book at the moment...

Of course you are right in the sense that there is no dominant dirt male. I still do not believe that this is such an uncommon situation, since there has been a while since we had a male who was proven clearly superior to this rivals, probably since the years of Curlin we did not have this kind of a horse... Having said this, I think we should relax the necessary credentials leading to the HOY and do not demand a really exceptional horse (which obviously does not exist this year) but try to base our opinions on more pragmatic factors, the most important of them been the winner of the top races of the year, who happen to be the BCC and the KD.. Of course if we had a turfer (namely WS) in the race, he could had been considered but this does not happen to be the case this year... If SB had dominated East Coast races the same way he did in SOUTHCAL he could had been a candidate, but his conservative campaign, makes me very reluctant to consider him a candidate for the title... Based on this way of thinking, I conclude that the only real candidates for the title have to be CC and B...

[PaceAdvantage]

When there are no dominant dirt males, you start looking to other divisions for your HOY. That's always been the case.

I would be shocked if California Chrome were voted HOY. Let's hope that mythical east-coast bias rears its ugly head again this year, because it wouldn't be a bias this time...it would be justice... :lol:

[ILovetheInner]

Not in a year like this, where there were NO dominant dirt males (nowhere near), in my opinion.

I don't see how ANYONE can get solidly behind Bayern, let alone California Chrome. I mean, come on man...California Chrome for HOY? Really?

That's the biggest joke going in my book at the moment...

I agree there is no way a 3yo is getting horse of the year. It is too garbled. This year, IMO, is going to be a lot of voting "against." Bayern won the BCC, but the race was turned to his favor, and looking at the press that bugs a lot of people. Had he not run in the Travers he would be harder to argue, but he did, and has only one other G1 win besides (and that race was light in the eyes of many). So he will be voted against and that puts it to Chrome, who had a sensational winter-spring, but has been winless since May. Who is going to want to award that HOY?

As far as Untapable, she did lose against males. Had that not happened, her case would be stronger, but clearly that was a bid to put her in some sort of position for HOY. Plus the Distaff came without Beholder. Not seeing it.

It's an interesting thought experiment as to what on earth they would do had Main Sequence not won the Turf. But he did, giving them someone to vote for who had a perfect G1 season. No, I don't think it is a typical or even worthy HOY campaign, but it is good enough when you are looking to vote against. His winning margins may not have been large, but that was a dig against him going into a tougher race in the BC, and he still prevailed. Could just be his way. I would be very surprised for him not to HOY, not due to the campaign but due to the circumstances.

[DeltaLover]

Let's hope that mythical east-coast bias rears its ugly head again this year, because it wouldn't be a bias this time...it would be justice... :lol:

But isn't it true that real racing only occurs in the East ???:cool::cool:

[classhandicapper]

When there are no dominant dirt males, you start looking to other divisions for your HOY. That's always been the case.



There's been no dominant male, but it's not like we had a foreign horse like Raven's Pas, a less accomplished horse like Drosselmyer, or a horses that didn't get good until end like Mucho Mach Man win the Classic.

I can't see how one of the 3yos doesn't get it.

[dilanesp]

When there are no dominant dirt males, you start looking to other divisions for your HOY. That's always been the case.

I would be shocked if California Chrome were voted HOY. Let's hope that mythical east-coast bias rears its ugly head again this year, because it wouldn't be a bias this time...it would be justice... :lol:

I don't think the east coast bias is mythical. I mean seriously, Havre de Grace? Rachel Alexandra over Zenyatta the year the latter won the BC Classic? Does Favorite Trick ever win HOTY if he sweeps the California 2 year old races instead? Sunshine Forever winning champion turf horse in 1988 over Great Communicator?

Heck, for years, they ran big races at Hollywood Park in December which didn't even get counted in the voting. As far as the Eclipse people were concerned, when the racing schedule effectively ended for top horses in the East, the year was over. (That one goes all the way back to 1950, when Noor beat just about the best field ever assembled in California in December, including Hill Prince, and Hill Prince was still voted Horse of the Year despite Noor's three world records and five victories over Triple Crown winners.)

But I agree with you, this year, I see no particular reason to think either CC or SB is Horse of the Year. I'd vote for Bayern, who might have a west coast trainer but won a couple of big races in the East before coming home to win the BC Classic.

[Stillriledup]

One factor as to why CC might get less love than usual is that when a horse is going for the TC and he doesn't win the Belmont, he's essentially letting us down and we get "mad" at the horse, the connections and of course, this particular jockey.

CC raced pretty well in the Belmont and pretty well in the BCC....i think if a Derby winner wins some other Grade 1s and races well and just gets beat in others, he's the frontrunner for HOY unless someone really did just capture the public's imagination and run away with the thing.

If we are really considering Bayern as a viable candidate, i have to say that CC really did enough to win HOY. Not such a great year with a dominant HOY, but if you win the Derby, Preakness and a few other assorted races as well as give a very good showing in the Classic, its yours to lose i'm thinking.

[horses4courses]

I think CC should be given a free pass for HOY just for the victory speech ;)

[Stillriledup]

If a legit Derby winner, who also won some other Grade 1s and raced well in defeat in others can't win the HOY in a down year, how important is the Derby in the grand scheme of things? Yeah, yeah, its important and all that, but if we don't give the Derby winner extra weight for winning this race when he's "right there" in the HOY voting, what's it all mean?

[DeltaLover]

One factor as to why CC might get less love than usual is that when a horse is going for the TC and he doesn't win the Belmont, he's essentially letting us down and we get "mad" at the horse, the connections and of course, this particular jockey.

CC raced pretty well in the Belmont and pretty well in the BCC....i think if a Derby winner wins some other Grade 1s and races well and just gets beat in others, he's the frontrunner for HOY unless someone really did just capture the public's imagination and run away with the thing.

If we are really considering Bayern as a viable candidate, i have to say that CC really did enough to win HOY. Not such a great year with a dominant HOY, but if you win the Derby, Preakness and a few other assorted races as well as give a very good showing in the Classic, its yours to lose i'm thinking.


The truth is the CC has been without a win since May, his BCC race was really good although again he came short of beating B... Regardless of his last though, I think he has burned a good of chunk of $$$ in betting pools, enough to hurt his (once stellar) popularity... As I stated earlier in this thread, I believe that for this year, the title goes to B, while CC has a good chance for the next year, assuming some improvement in his 4yo campaign.. Also, given his humble pedigree, I will not be surprised, if we even see a five year old CC, so he will have plenty of chances to prove to the world, how good he really is.

[cj]

Not such a great year with a dominant HOY, but if you win the Derby, Preakness and a few other assorted races as well as give a very good showing in the Classic, its yours to lose i'm thinking.

It was his to lose, but he did. Bayern beat him twice in succession, and Chrome wasn't affected by the start either.

[Stillriledup]

It was his to lose, but he did. Bayern beat him twice in succession, and Chrome wasn't affected by the start either.

CC was buried in Pennsylvania, i don't count that as Bayern beating him and Classic i forgive because CC was on the triple crown trail, which is very taxing while Bayern wasn't grinding out mile and a half races.

Its all context, depends on how you want to look at it.

[dilanesp]

If a legit Derby winner, who also won some other Grade 1s and raced well in defeat in others can't win the HOY in a down year, how important is the Derby in the grand scheme of things? Yeah, yeah, its important and all that, but if we don't give the Derby winner extra weight for winning this race when he's "right there" in the HOY voting, what's it all mean?

I actually think the Derby basically is unimportant. It's a 20 horse crapshoot that is unlike anything else in American racing, and the restriction to 3 year olds means that some years the race is very weak.

In general, open competition in handicap division races should determine HOTY. The Derby shouldn't really count for much unless the handicap division is a complete mess.

[cj]

CC was buried in Pennsylvania, i don't count that as Bayern beating him and Classic i forgive because CC was on the triple crown trail, which is very taxing while Bayern wasn't grinding out mile and a half races.

Its all context, depends on how you want to look at it.

So Bayern shouldn't win because of two bad losses, but Chrome's bad loss doesn't count. Got it.

[Stillriledup]

So Bayern shouldn't win because of two bad losses, but Chrome's bad loss doesn't count. Got it.

I'm not a fan of awarding out a HOY title to a one dimensional horse who folds up and gets beat 20 when he encounters adversity. Chrome didn't chuck the bit and lose by 20.

[ArlJim78]

Watch the replay of the Travers, the leader beats a hasty retreat from first to last, and now is perhaps horse of the year? lol
I don't really think either one (CC or Bayern) distinguished themselves enough to win it. I just don't think horses that suffer two 20 length defeats or whose last win was in mid may can have a strong claim on HOY, but that's just me.

But it's only an award and I couldn't care less really. It's just funny to see all the passion year after year on the HOY award. Of course in the off season there is little else to get fired up about.

[DeltaLover]

Watch the replay of the Travers, the leader beats a hasty retreat from first to last, and now is perhaps horse of the year? lol
I don't really think either one (CC or Bayern) distinguished themselves enough to win it. I just don't think horses that suffer two 20 length defeats or whose last win was in mid may can have a strong claim on HOY, but that's just me.

But it's only an award and I couldn't care less really. It's just funny to see all the passion year after year on the HOY award. Of course in the off season there is little else to get fired up about.

So, based on your criteria, which one you believe it should be HOY? Do you have anyone in mind?

[Bullet Plane]

To get 3 year old colt of the year, I think it is really going to take beating the older horses this year.

The 3 year olds don't typically beat the older horses in the big races.

Of course, this year most of the big guns in the older division were injured.

But, Tonalist took on the best of the older in the JGC and also won the Belmont.

Shared Belief won two G1's against the older.

So, I would tend to think the 3 year old colt of the year...

Either Tonalist or Shared Belief, leaning towards Tonalist.

CC did not beat older.

Of course, Bayern just beat older once in the BC Classic.

But, with the circumstances of that race... I'd tend to throw it out altogether.

What can you really tell about the horses, when you have all that interference out of the gate?

[tucker6]

in a year such as this, maybe they give Wise Dan his lifetime achievement award a la Zenyatta.

[Stillriledup]

in a year such as this, maybe they give Wise Dan his lifetime achievement award a la Zenyatta.

oh no you didn't. :D

[tucker6]

oh no you didn't. :D
just saying that it is a reasonable compromise position. ;)

[dilanesp]

I'm not a fan of awarding out a HOY title to a one dimensional horse who folds up and gets beat 20 when he encounters adversity. Chrome didn't chuck the bit and lose by 20.

I suspect Bayern improved as the year went on. That happens to 3 year olds. I don't think Bayern could have put together a race like he did in the BC Classic back in the spring.

[Stillriledup]

I suspect Bayern improved as the year went on. That happens to 3 year olds. I don't think Bayern could have put together a race like he did in the BC Classic back in the spring.

Certainly possible. Its a long year, great job by Baffert with that horse.

[ArlJim78]

So, based on your criteria, which one you believe it should be HOY? Do you have anyone in mind?
In this particular year with the dirt side looking a little weak, my vote would go to Main Sequence. Four grade one wins at four different tracks and the BC turf was a full field with the defending champ and some other top Euro's in the lineup including the Arc runnerup. Didn't have any clunkers, took on all comers this year and was not beaten. It's a tough year to land on one choice but he would be mine.

[taxicab]

The Eldorado Casino in Reno had HOY odds up on the board last week.

Bayern: 8-5
California Chrome: 5-2
Untapable: 10-1

The sharps that make those lines don't miss a thing,so I think it's one of the top two.
After the BC Classic I thought Bayern was a lock.
But it seems like the masses have kind of turned on Bob Baffert,and aren't thrilled with the So.Cal stewards for the handling of the Classic(no change).
I'm starting to think HOY is going to CC.

[Redboard]

I think CC should be given a free pass for HOY just for the victory speech ;)

Yea, I'd like to hear him repeat the statement that he'll never run the Belmont again if his horse wins the derby & preakness.
Not going to make that mistake twice.:bang:

[iceknight]

OK let's go over this again. Here are the two finalists for HOTY and their resume highlights

BAYERN

Grade I: Haskell -9f
Grade II: Pennsylvania Derby - 9f
Grade IV*: Breeders Cup Classic - 10f

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Grade I: Santa Anita Derby - 9f
Grade I: Kentucky Derby -10f
Grade I: Preakness -9.5

It is easy to see that California Chrome did more than Bayern

* Graded status lowered due to demolition derby style racing being allowed.

[Redboard]

OK let's go over this again. Here are the two finalists for HOTY and their resume highlights

BAYERN

Grade I: Haskell -9f
Grade II: Pennsylvania Derby - 9f
Grade IV*: Breeders Cup Classic - 10f

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Grade I: Santa Anita Derby - 9f
Grade I: Kentucky Derby -10f
Grade I: Preakness -9.5

It is easy to see that California Chrome did more than Bayern

* Graded status lowered due to demolition derby style racing being allowed.

The Pennsylvania derby's field was stronger than the Santa Anita derby's. Candy Boy was the only other one from the SA derby that showed up at the BC, and he also ran in the PA derby along with Bayern & Tapiture(who I mentioned earlier). What did the rest of the SA derby field do since? (e.g., FriendsWKmill-> Maiden claimer winner. Dublin Up -> Still a maiden?) The only reason the SA Derby is a G1 and the PA derby a G2 is that damn west coast bias. :) So let's say those two races are a wash.

BAYERN
Grade I: Haskell -9f
Grade I: Breeders Cup Classic - 10f
:ThmbUp: beat olders
:ThmbUp: set 40 year old track record
:ThmbDown: mowed down half the field at BCC break
:ThmbDown: Trainer


CALIFORNIA CHROME
Grade I: Kentucky Derby -10f
Grade I: Preakness -9.5f
:ThmbDown: Dumb asses
:ThmbUp: Trainer

[cj]

But, with the circumstances of that race... I'd tend to throw it out altogether.

What can you really tell about the horses, when you have all that interference out of the gate?'

Couldn't you say the same about Tonalist in the JCGC with the Wicked Strong incident?

[dilanesp]

The Pennsylvania derby's field was stronger than the Santa Anita derby's. Candy Boy was the only other one from the SA derby that showed up at the BC, and he also ran in the PA derby along with Bayern & Tapiture(who I mentioned earlier). What did the rest of the SA derby field do since? (e.g., FriendsWKmill-> Maiden claimer winner. Dublin Up -> Still a maiden?) The only reason the SA Derby is a G1 and the PA derby a G2 is that damn west coast bias. :) So let's say those two races are a wash.

BAYERN
Grade I: Haskell -9f
Grade I: Breeders Cup Classic - 10f
:ThmbUp: beat olders
:ThmbUp: set 40 year old track record
:ThmbDown: mowed down half the field at BCC break
:ThmbDown: Trainer


CALIFORNIA CHROME
Grade I: Kentucky Derby -10f
Grade I: Preakness -9.5f
:ThmbDown: Dumb asses
:ThmbUp: Trainer

Derby prep races are not really "Grade I"'s in the same way other races are. There are many routes to the Derby and good horses rarely meet in the preps.

I love the Santa Anita Derby and attend it every year, but it is next to meaningless when it comes to HOTY.

[PaceAdvantage]

One factor as to why CC might get less love than usual is that when a horse is going for the TC and he doesn't win the Belmont, he's essentially letting us down and we get "mad" at the horse, the connections and of course, this particular jockey.

CC raced pretty well in the Belmont and pretty well in the BCC....i think if a Derby winner wins some other Grade 1s and races well and just gets beat in others, he's the frontrunner for HOY unless someone really did just capture the public's imagination and run away with the thing.

If we are really considering Bayern as a viable candidate, i have to say that CC really did enough to win HOY. Not such a great year with a dominant HOY, but if you win the Derby, Preakness and a few other assorted races as well as give a very good showing in the Classic, its yours to lose i'm thinking.So CC is getting love in this thread from some, DESPITE never beating open company, yet a horse like Untapable is being summarily dismissed by these same folks because she has the same knock against her...funny stuff...

[PaceAdvantage]

The Eldorado Casino in Reno had HOY odds up on the board last week.

Bayern: 8-5
California Chrome: 5-2
Untapable: 10-1

The sharps that make those lines don't miss a thing,so I think it's one of the top two.
After the BC Classic I thought Bayern was a lock.
But it seems like the masses have kind of turned on Bob Baffert,and aren't thrilled with the So.Cal stewards for the handling of the Classic(no change).
I'm starting to think HOY is going to CC.I've been pretty good at betting longshots lately...I think there is enough distaste for the top two on that line that perhaps Untapable gets more support than some are thinking...

This is a crap year...let's face it...

[cj]

I've been pretty good at betting longshots lately...I think there is enough distaste for the top two on that line that perhaps Untapable gets more support than some are thinking...

This is a crap year...let's face it...

I personally think Main Sequence has a better chance than her, just can't see her overcoming that bad loss in the Haskell. It is one thing to lose to Bayern, another to lose to Irish You Well too.

[mostpost]

So CC is getting love in this thread from some, DESPITE never beating open company, yet a horse like Untapable is being summarily dismissed by these same folks because she has the same knock against her...funny stuff...
I don't know whether to laugh or cry. A three year old colt is much closer to racing in open company than is a three year old filly. A three year old filly has not even raced against older fillies and mares. It is one step up for a three year old colt to race older horses. It is two steps up for a three year old filly. And that second step is much larger both than the first step and larger than it is for the three year old colt.
Since 1887 there have been 126 Horses of the Year, formal and informal. 60 of those were three year old colts. Eight were older fillies or mares and six were three year old fillies. I think that tells us how three year old colts and female horses of any age are regarded in Horse of the Year selection.

Information on the Horse of the Year can be found at the wikipedia page "American Horse of the Year."

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. A three year old colt is much closer to racing in open company than is a three year old filly. A three year old filly has not even raced against older fillies and mares. It is one step up for a three year old colt to race older horses. It is two steps up for a three year old filly. And that second step is much larger both than the first step and larger than it is for the three year old colt.
Since 1887 there have been 126 Horses of the Year, formal and informal. 60 of those were three year old colts. Eight were older fillies or mares and six were three year old fillies. I think that tells us how three year old colts and female horses of any age are regarded in Horse of the Year selection.

Information on the Horse of the Year can be found at the wikipedia page "American Horse of the Year."And this would be the perfect year to go outside the norm, given CC hasn't won in how many starts? Has never beaten older horses, and flopped badly in the Penn Derby...

Ohhh, he didn't disgrace himself in the BC Classic...ohhh...let's give him HOY because he won the Derby and Preakness and was close in the BC Classic....are you kidding me?

Oh, but you'll school me about things from a Wiki page, because you don't like me in off-topic...you don't know whether to laugh or cry...way to go jackass.

[Stillriledup]

So CC is getting love in this thread from some, DESPITE never beating open company, yet a horse like Untapable is being summarily dismissed by these same folks because she has the same knock against her...funny stuff...

My point being that when a horse is attempting the Triple Crown (these days with the TC dry spell and all) you have extra pressure on you....and if you lose, people get down on you, its just natural. I'd hate to see CC lose his tarnish for what he did BEFORE the Belmont just because of our own disappointment at him not winning in early June.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me ask you a simple question.

How in the world do you give the 3yo California Chrome HOY after he's lost TWICE in a row to another 3yo in Bayern...with one of those victories by Bayern being the BC Classic?

It's mind boggling to think California Chrome is even in the realm of discussion for this award.

Or, to put it another way...you're asking voters to not only ignore Bayern in the HOY category in favor of California Chrome, but you're also asking them to ignore him as 3yo of the year. Because I can't fathom a 3yo winning HOY and NOT also winning the 3yo of the year award.

So, basically, you're saying the 3yo winner of the BC Classic, who also defeated the winner of the Derby and Preakness TWICE....gets nothing...

The simple fix to this is to give either CC or Bayern the 3yo award (and Bayern is the only logical choice for 3yo of the Year), and go outside the norm for HOY to a more consistent animal...as it should be.

[maclr11]

Looking back at past results led me to evaluate two years to look at the two turf horses that won Horse of the Year

1983- All Along
1993- Kotashaan

Both years had similarities and hold some to 2014 as well. Main Sequence won four grade 1's at four different racetracks. He won on both coasts as well.

In 83 All Along only won 3 races in North America. She won the Canadian International, the Turf Classic and the Washington D.C. International. All major victories, all grade 1's all over top foes. This was enough for her to win HOY and champion turf female.

1983 was a weak year for racing.
Devil's Bag would have been her main competition for HOY as he was undefeated in five starts winning the Laurel Futurity, Champagne and Cowdin Stakes. Althea was champ JF with her wins in the Del Mar Debutante and Futurity. Heartlight No. One was the champ 3YOF with wins in the Hollywood Oaks and Ruffian and Ambassador of Luck was champion older mare with wins in the Molly Pitcher, Ballerina and Maskette. None of those three had a strong enough campaign. Chinook Pass was 5 for 7 but only on the west coast and only won 1 graded stake the Longacres Mile on his way to the sprint title. John Henry was champion older turf male. He only had 2 wins from 5 starts that year. Winning the American Handicap and the Hollywood Turf Cup. Nothing that could compare to All Along. Slew O'Gold was the other big contender as champion 3yo, but he didn't win any of the triple crown races. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup the Woodward, the Wood and the Peter Pan while running second in the Belmont, Travers and Marlboro Cup. Bates Motel was champion older horse with wins in the Santa Anita Handicap and Monmouth Handicap but he was defeated by Slew O'Gold in the fall. This weak group was led by the losses of what would have been good 3YOFillies Landaluce and Princess Rooney to death and injury. Sunny's Halo the Derby winner never found his form. So All Along with only three wins won Horse of the Year.

Bayern and Slew O'Gold have some similarities. Both win the big older horse race at the end of the year but did not win a triple crown leg. They had good campaigns but had some defeats. Wise Dan and John Henry are comparable because neither had a tough enough campaign to be a major contender. An American Pharoah win in the BC Juvenile would have made him comparable to Devil's Bag but Texas Red with his 1 win cant be a contender and neither can Lady Eli. This leaves Untapable as the one who cant really be compared this year.


In 1993 Kotashaan went 6 for 10 with wins in the San Luis Obispo, the San Luis Rey, the San Juan Capistrano, Eddie Read, Oak Tree Invitational and the BC Turf. This was a good campaign all on the west coast where the BC was that year as well. Arcangues upset the classic and defeated Bertrando who probably would have been HOY with a win. Bertrando was 3 for 9 that year with wins in the San Fernando, the Pacific Classic and the Woodward. Bertrando has some similar qualities to Shared Belief who needed a BC Classic win to win HOY after a west coast campaign that beat some weaker foes. The 2yo's were weak as Dehere was champion juvenile after being beaten soundly in the Juvenile, while Phone Chatter was 4 for 6 with a BC win but only two other California stakes wins. Hollywood Wildcat won the BC Distaff after winning the Lady's Secret and Hollywood Oaks but once again all her wins were in California. She was a nice 3yo filly but its hard to give HOY to a filly that lost 4 times against her own sex in California. Paseana was champion mare, she lost to Hollywood Wildcat in the Distaff. She had 3 wins in 93 the Apple Blossom the Milady and the Spinster. Cardmania was 2 for 12 on route to his sprint title and Flawlessly was 4 for 5 en route to her champion turf mare title. Prairie Bayou was champion 3yo but he tragically only had half a campaign. He won the Blue Grass, the Preakness and the Jim Beam as well as was 2nd in the Derby, but because of his injury he didn't have any wins against olders. Sea Hero won the Derby and the Travers but that was basically it for him that year and Colonial Affair won the Belmont in his only stake win that year.


Both years lacked a major superstar so it left the void open for the two turf horses. It could be argued that California Chrome by winning two legs of the triple crown has a shot but like War Emblem who did not win HOY he did not do much after his Preakness win. Actually War Emblem had a win in the Haskell something California Chrome doesn't even have.

In 04 Smarty Jones won the first two legs and then was retired after his Belmont defeat and he lost to Ghostzapper a horse who had great performances in limited starts that year.

In 08 Big Brown came back and won two races after his two triple crown wins and didn't win HOY over Curlin who got beat in the Classic.

In 2012 I'll Have Another was retired before the Belmont and Wise Dan as a turf horse won the HOY after a brilliant campaign concluding in a BC Mile victory.

There is lots of precedent for not giving a horse who won two legs of the triple crown the HOY (Real Quiet, Silver Charm and the above).

I think Main Sequence is the horse you can poke the least holes in and is deserving in my mind of HOY.

[Stillriledup]

Let me ask you a simple question.

How in the world do you give the 3yo California Chrome HOY after he's lost TWICE in a row to another 3yo in Bayern...with one of those victories by Bayern being the BC Classic?

It's mind boggling to think California Chrome is even in the realm of discussion for this award.

Or, to put it another way...you're asking voters to not only ignore Bayern in the HOY category in favor of California Chrome, but you're also asking them to ignore him as 3yo of the year. Because I can't fathom a 3yo winning HOY and NOT also winning the 3yo of the year award.

So, basically, you're saying the 3yo winner of the BC Classic, who also defeated the winner of the Derby and Preakness TWICE....gets nothing...

The simple fix to this is to give either CC or Bayern the 3yo award (and Bayern is the only logical choice for 3yo of the Year), and go outside the norm for HOY to a more consistent animal...as it should be.

Head to head matchups are a farce. If CC won the Belmont and the Triple Crown but lost to Bayern in the Classic, would you still say "how can CC win HOY if he lost to Bayern twice?"

If CC won the Belmont, all of a sudden, the Pa Derby and the Classic wouldn't matter because there's 0 pct chance CC wouldn't be HOY.

Also, a lot of this is philosophy. I don't want to elect a horse of the year who is a one dimensional front runner who is a chicken heart when things don't go exactly his way. Can't vote for a horse as HOY who has lost multiple races by 20 lengths.

[classhandicapper]

Let me ask you a simple question.

How in the world do you give the 3yo California Chrome HOY after he's lost TWICE in a row to another 3yo in Bayern...with one of those victories by Bayern being the BC Classic?



It's what I said.

The only possible way is that some people consider trips (pace, bias etc..) in their evaluations of the horses and have concluded that Bayern's superior accomplishments were earned with loose leads and speed/rail biases. So they don't think he's as good as he looks on paper.

IMO, that's a reasonable position to take on the horse.

However, IMO, we don't want people incorporating their own favorite speed figures or trips, pace, bias etc... into the discussion because we already can't get people to agree on anything. We'd need a 1000 post thread just to discuss the figures and trips before we got to the accomplishment phase. :lol:

It's got to be about accomplishments. IMO, 2-1 H2H and a Classic win trumps CC's heroics early in the season.

[Stillriledup]

It's what I said.

The only possible way is that some people consider trips (pace, bias etc..) in their evaluations of the horses and have concluded that Bayern's superior accomplishments were earned with loose leads and speed/rail biases. So they don't think he's as good as he looks on paper.

IMO, that's a reasonable position to take on the horse.

However, IMO, we don't want people incorporating their own favorite speed figures or trips, pace, bias etc... into the discussion because we already can't get people to agree on anything. We'd need a 1000 post thread just to discuss the figures and trips before we got to the accomplishment phase. :lol:

It's got to be about accomplishments. IMO, 2-1 H2H and a Classic win trumps CC's heroics early in the season.

The Classic APPEARS to trump the Derby because its later and the year and happened more recently. Horse of the year has turned into horse of Oct/Nov. We could also change the award to the "horse who wins the BC Classic" award if you want.

[PaceAdvantage]

The Classic APPEARS to trump the Derby because its later and the year and happened more recently.That's not the only reason.

[dilanesp]

It's what I said.

The only possible way is that some people consider trips (pace, bias etc..) in their evaluations of the horses and have concluded that Bayern's superior accomplishments were earned with loose leads and speed/rail biases. So they don't think he's as good as he looks on paper.

IMO, that's a reasonable position to take on the horse.

However, IMO, we don't want people incorporating their own favorite speed figures or trips, pace, bias etc... into the discussion because we already can't get people to agree on anything. We'd need a 1000 post thread just to discuss the figures and trips before we got to the accomplishment phase. :lol:

It's got to be about accomplishments. IMO, 2-1 H2H and a Classic win trumps CC's heroics early in the season.

Also, I think people tend to ding speed horses too much under these sorts of theories. Having early speed is a huge advantage in ANY horse race. It gets you position. It keeps you from having dirt kicked in your face. It keeps you from getting blocked or going wide.

It's, not to put a fine point on it, why Affirmed was better than Alydar.

It's of course fine to do trip HANDICAPPING and bet based on trips. But when you are dealing with these sorts of end of the year honors, it really misses the point to start getting into these sorts of discussions. A horse like Bayern is going to win a lot of races because a speed horse can often make his or her own racing luck. His early speed is part of what makes him a formidable racehorse. If you introduce trip handicapping into this you start offering excuses for come from behind horses who lose races while downgrading speed horses who win them. That's wrong.

[Stillriledup]

Also, I think people tend to ding speed horses too much under these sorts of theories. Having early speed is a huge advantage in ANY horse race. It gets you position. It keeps you from having dirt kicked in your face. It keeps you from getting blocked or going wide.

It's, not to put a fine point on it, why Affirmed was better than Alydar.

It's of course fine to do trip HANDICAPPING and bet based on trips. But when you are dealing with these sorts of end of the year honors, it really misses the point to start getting into these sorts of discussions. A horse like Bayern is going to win a lot of races because a speed horse can often make his or her own racing luck. His early speed is part of what makes him a formidable racehorse. If you introduce trip handicapping into this you start offering excuses for come from behind horses who lose races while downgrading speed horses who win them. That's wrong.

Alydar rarely switched leads, so that cost him as well as the ground loss.

People are giving credit to Bayern and his wins, but do we really want a horse of the year who stops in the stretch TWICE during the year?

Go back and look at all the HOY winners in history, i can't imagine that too many of them have 2 losses of 20 lengths during the campaign. At least for me, that's what i'm holding against him.

[Redboard]

Looking back at past results led me to evaluate two years to look at the two ..............................nother was retired before the Belmont and Wise Dan as a turf horse won the HOY after a brilliant campaign concluding in a BC Mile victory.

There is lots of precedent for not giving a horse who won two legs of the triple crown the HOY (Real Quiet, Silver Charm and the above).

I think Main Sequence is the horse you can poke the least holes in and is deserving in my mind of HOY.

There's no precedent for not giving the winner of two TC legs the 3YrOld Eclipse. And you can't give HOY to a 3YrOld who you didn't give the 3YrOld Eclipse, tnat will not happen. You cant give CC the 3YrOld award, and Bayern the HOY. The 'easiest' way out for the voters would be to give Main Sequence HOY, and Bayern 3YrOld. Not giving Bayern HOY would appease his haters who think his BCC victory was tainted. One of the main purposes of the BC was to have these things decided on the track. Putting CC above Bayern would be lunacy.

[dilanesp]

There's no precedent for not giving the winner of two TC legs the 3YrOld Eclipse.

Key to the Mint won it in 1972 even though Riva Ridge won the Derby and Belmont (and lost the Triple Crown due to an off track at Pimlico).

Also, pre-Eclipse, Arts and Letters was champion three year old in 1969 despite Majestic Prince having won the Derby and the Preakness.

Buckpasser was champion three year old in 1966 despite Kauai King having won the Derby and the Preakness.

There are precedents.

[mostpost]

And this would be the perfect year to go outside the norm, given CC hasn't won in how many starts? Has never beaten older horses, and flopped badly in the Penn Derby...
He hasn't won in three starts, but you already knew that. You also know that only one of those-the Pennsylvania Derby-was a bad race. You also know that before those three races, California Chrome won six races in a row. You seem to think those races count for nothing.

Apparently you missed the Breeders Cup Classic, where California Chrome beat seven older horses-the same seven that Bayern beat.

Ohhh, he didn't disgrace himself in the BC Classic...ohhh...let's give him HOY because he won the Derby and Preakness and was close in the BC Classic....are you kidding me?
I'm going to have to check that out. How many horses have been named HOY after winning the Derby and Preakness.


Oh, but you'll school me about things from a Wiki page, because you don't like me in off-topic...you don't know whether to laugh or cry...way to go jackass.
I'm not "Schooling" anyone. I was just pointing out where I got my information so that anyone-not just you-could go there and check it out.

[cj]

You also know that only one of those-the Pennsylvania Derby-was a bad race. You also know that before those three races, California Chrome won six races in a row. You seem to think those races count for nothing.

I think many would call the Belmont a bad race. He was fifth as an odds on favorite.

Of his six in a row, one doesn't count, it was in 2013. The first of 2014 was a Cal bred stakes, don't think that is going to get much weight. So really, two of them don't count for anything. The G2 he won next doesn't mean much either. I'm just being real here, nobody is trotting out the San Felipe as ammunition for a horse of the year vote.

[cj]

I'll add this about California Chrome, the SA Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness haven't exactly been "key races" going forward, unless you count the negative kind.

[Cratos]

Key to the Mint won it in 1972 even though Riva Ridge won the Derby and Belmont (and lost the Triple Crown due to an off track at Pimlico).

Also, pre-Eclipse, Arts and Letters was champion three year old in 1969 despite Majestic Prince having won the Derby and the Preakness.

Buckpasser was champion three year old in 1966 despite Kauai King having won the Derby and the Preakness.

There are precedents.
You make a good argument and add to your argument, WTC didn't win a TC race last year nor did he win the BC Classic, but he did win 3yo of the year; and I understand you are addressing HOY with your post.

[JustRalph]

I am normally inclined to give the KY Derby winner tons of credit for winning and also winning the Preakness. I have argued here before that most trainers would rather win the KY DERBY than than any Breeders Cup race.

But this year...... I think the owners of CC just plain acted terribly and it just takes the wind out of his sails for me.

I also think the way he flattened out in the Belmont takes away from his record too. If he would have been at least close in the Belmont (close to a triple crown) it would have meant much more.

[maclr11]

The field for the Derby did not turn out to be stellar


Of the 19 horses

7 Came back to win races this year

CC- Preakness
Wicked Strong- Jim Dandy
Chitu- Allowance at SA
We Miss Artie- Plate Trial
Tapiture- Matt Winn, West Virginia Derby
Wildcat Red- Quality Road Stakes
Vicar's In Trouble- Super Derby

So that is 4 horses who won graded stakes after the Derby.

Compare that to 1999 which is the last year Kentucky Derby winner won Horse of the Year.

Charismatic won the '99 Derby

12 of the 19 horses in the field came back to win races that same year and many of them won major races.

Charismatic- Preakness
Menifee- Haskell
Cat Thief- Swaps and Breeders Cup Classic
Prime Timber- In Excess Stakes
Excellent Meeting- Princess Stakes
Lemon Drop Kid- Belmont and Travers
General Challenge- Affirmed, Pacific Classic and Native Diver
Ecton Park- Jim Dandy, Super Derby
Stephen Got Even- Allowance at Saratoga
Valhol- Allowance
Adonis- Discovery
Three Ring- Acorn Stakes

That's 9 graded stakes winners after the Derby.
It's hard to argue that Chrome's derby really flatters him. It was ran in a slow time and the field has come back to do very little.

[mostpost]

I think many would call the Belmont a bad race. He was fifth as an odds on favorite.

Of his six in a row, one doesn't count, it was in 2013. The first of 2014 was a Cal bred stakes, don't think that is going to get much weight. So really, two of them don't count for anything. The G2 he won next doesn't mean much either. I'm just being real here, nobody is trotting out the San Felipe as ammunition for a horse of the year vote.
Then many would be wrong. Including the person who said he was fifth. He was fourth in a dead heat. Three horses finished ahead of him. That means he was fourth-as was Wicked Strong.

California Chrome won six races in a row. Three of those were Grade 1 races. I can't think of another three year old who won three races of any kind in a row. Except for Wise Dan and Main Sequence, who were turf specialists this year, I can't think of an older horse who won three in a row.

[mostpost]

I am normally inclined to give the KY Derby winner tons of credit for winning and also winning the Preakness. I have argued here before that most trainers would rather win the KY DERBY than than any Breeders Cup race.

But this year...... I think the owners of CC just plain acted terribly and it just takes the wind out of his sails for me.

I also think the way he flattened out in the Belmont takes away from his record too. If he would have been at least close in the Belmont (close to a triple crown) it would have meant much more.
How California Chrome's owners acted should have nothing to do with voting for Horse of the Year or top three year old colt. I would hope the actual voters will be more professional than you seem to be.

If he had flattened out in the Belmont, that would be a blemish. But he did not. After a mile, California Chrome was two and a half lengths plus a head from the lead. At the finish, he was one and three quarters lengths plus a head from the lead. Taken from the stretch call, CC was two lengths plus a head from the lead. And as I pointed out above, he ended up one and three quarters lengths plus a head from the lead at the finish. So he gained ground both from the far turn and from midstretch. Horses that flatten out do not gain ground.

[Stillriledup]

Just something else to chew on.

CC shouldn't be penalized for being "tired" in the later year races because he was essentially "Required" to race 2 weeks after the Derby and 3 grueling races in 5 weeks. Bayern wasn't required to do anything....so, if you're forced to race 2 weeks after a grueling mile and a quarter, that could take something out of a horse...and CC did race in all 3 TC legs.

Bayern was picking his spots and resting, CC was not.

[taxicab]

Perhaps the tip off that California Chrome will win the 3yo Championship.
Since 1970 sixteen horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown....
All sixteen won the 3yo Eclipse Award.
Now,is that going to translate into HOY ?

[dilanesp]

Just something else to chew on.

CC shouldn't be penalized for being "tired" in the later year races because he was essentially "Required" to race 2 weeks after the Derby and 3 grueling races in 5 weeks. Bayern wasn't required to do anything....so, if you're forced to race 2 weeks after a grueling mile and a quarter, that could take something out of a horse...and CC did race in all 3 TC legs.

Bayern was picking his spots and resting, CC was not.

He wasn't required to do anything. Swaps, Spend a Buck, and Gato Del Sol all skipped the Preakness. I'll Have Another skipped the Belmont.

They ran CC in those races voluntarily.

[maclr11]

Untapable won four in a row early in the year
The Rachel Alexandra, the FG oaks, the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose
She has 4 grade 1 wins just like main sequence

[MargieRose]

MostPost and Stillriledup...Great arguments, regarding CA Chrome! You guys make the most sense...Carry on, do carry on! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess if one wants to make a weak year even weaker, they can vote CC as HOY. I can't believe how ridiculous this sounds, even as I type it...

A horse who loses 2 out of 3 to the winner of the BC Classic is going to be voted HOY? Alrighty then...

And lets not forget that CC is better suited to 10 furlongs than Bayern, and he still couldn't beat him in the BCC, even with the good trip he received...Bayern got crushed the two prior times he attempted anything beyond 9 furlongs....one of those to CC himself...this makes the BCC victory even more impressive.

[Redboard]

Key to the Mint won it in 1972 even though Riva Ridge won the Derby and Belmont (and lost the Triple Crown due to an off track at Pimlico).

Also, pre-Eclipse, Arts and Letters was champion three year old in 1969 despite Majestic Prince having won the Derby and the Preakness.

Buckpasser was champion three year old in 1966 despite Kauai King having won the Derby and the Preakness.

There are precedents.

Thanks for the correction, I meant to say "There's no precedent for not giving the winner of the first two TC legs the 3YrOld Eclipse."
Which is the category that CC is in.

[ILovetheInner]

I think Chrome fans are recollecting spring from their own perspective. His impressive record coming into the KYD was scrutinized due to the questionable quality of the horses he was dominating. His Derby was visually impressive but a perfect trip and slow. He earned new fans coming back strong in the Preakness, but there still was a question if he wasn't ahead of his crop and that the rest would catch up. Not out of the realm of possibility given that the place finishers in both races had not one graded win to their credit. The Preakness field comes back particularly weak. He was called a "beast" then, but of course a beast when there was no Shared Belief, no Bayern strong on the lead, no Tonalist, no blinkered Wicked Strong. It was his to prove or not prove in the fall. I think he'll win champion 3yo because Bayern's win in the BCC is too controversial and went too much his own win for anyone to feel the 3yo picture is sorted, but Chrome had a clean run and clear aim through the stretch and did not win. That is far from inconsequential in terms of HOY consideration.

[classhandicapper]

A horse who loses 2 out of 3 to the winner of the BC Classic is going to be voted HOY? Alrighty then...

And lets not forget that CC is better suited to 10 furlongs than Bayern, and he still couldn't beat him in the BCC, even with the good trip he received...Bayern got crushed the two prior times he attempted anything beyond 9 furlongs....one of those to CC himself...this makes the BCC victory even more impressive.

I agree with your premise on HOTY, but not the trips.

Bayern was loose on the lead after he took out the only other quality speed and a potentially stalking favorite at the start on a track that should be renamed the SA Super Speedway.

CA Chrome got a very good trip for his style. Nothing to complain about. Bayern got a gift from God.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with your premise on HOTY, but not the trips.

Bayern was loose on the lead after he took out the only other quality speed and a potentially stalking favorite at the start on a track that should be renamed the SA Super Speedway.

CA Chrome got a very good trip for his style. Nothing to complain about. Bayern got a gift from God.In the Travers, Bayern had a clear early lead, but still got his head handed to him at 10 furlongs. Let's not start speculating that the only reason he ran well at 10 panels in the BCC is because he got an easy lead...Beyern showed another dimension (the ability to go 1 1/4) in the BCC, lucky break or no lucky break...

[thaskalos]

IMO...The HOTY honor is hardly worth debating over...especially after a year like this. Who cares?

[horses4courses]

IMO...The HOTY honor is hardly worth debating over...especially after a year like this. Who cares?

My sentiments entirely :ThmbUp:

It's horse racing's version of the Oscars.
Nice night out for those involved.

For the winners?
Instead of increasing box office take,
the fees at the breeding shed go up.

At the end of the day, it does little for the sport.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's all well and good. Thanks for adding to the discussion you two... :lol:

Some of us do enjoy discussing this sort of thing...to each their own...

[cj]

That's all well and good. Thanks for adding to the discussion you two... :lol:

Some of us do enjoy discussing this sort of thing...to each their own...

Our sport gets little fanfare as it is, so any press is good press. I'm glad it is up in the air.

[mostpost]

MostPost and Stillriledup...Great arguments, regarding CA Chrome! You guys make the most sense...Carry on, do carry on! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
The interesting thing is that we don't agree on a lot of things. I must have gotten smarter. :lol:

[thaskalos]

That's all well and good. Thanks for adding to the discussion you two... :lol:

Some of us do enjoy discussing this sort of thing...to each their own...
You're welcome. :)

[Stillriledup]

MostPost and Stillriledup...Great arguments, regarding CA Chrome! You guys make the most sense...Carry on, do carry on! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Wow, thanks mom! :D

[classhandicapper]

In the Travers, Bayern had a clear early lead, but still got his head handed to him at 10 furlongs. Let's not start speculating that the only reason he ran well at 10 panels in the BCC is because he got an easy lead...Beyern showed another dimension (the ability to go 1 1/4) in the BCC, lucky break or no lucky break...

I keyed against him in the Travers for all the same reasons I think he got lucky in the Classic, but he got very unlucky in the Travers.

He looked a little suspect twice at longer distances (1m and 1 1/8M) but looked like a champion when he got loose going long on biased tracks. So at 10F in the Travers he had to be suspect. He wound up being pushed hard (in questionable rides on both Tonalist and Wicked Strong) on a day when the rail was not the best path and on a track somewhat tilted towards closers. That's why he got buried. But he got buried so badly it's hard for me to think he really wants to go that far under honest conditions.

Then he got loose again on a track I made biased and won the Classic.

I think he's not at his best at 10F and got lucky in the Classic given my views on the tracks and trips. IMO, it is what it is. I'd have no problem emptying my pockets against him if they reran the Classic on another track with a fair break. I think he'd finish 4th at best if everyone ran the same race and it was cleanly run.

[Redboard]

IMO...The HOTY honor is hardly worth debating over...especially after a year like this. Who cares?

Would you rather have another thread on What's wrong with horse racing?

[ReplayRandall]

Would you rather have another thread on What's wrong with horse racing?


Nah.......I think this thread sums up perfectly what's wrong with horse racing....

[Stillriledup]

Nah.......I think this thread sums up perfectly what's wrong with horse racing....

It does?

[ReplayRandall]

It does?


SRU, tell me what this thread hasn't said......

[Stillriledup]

SRU, tell me what this thread hasn't said......

Seems to me its everything that's right about racing, fans showing some passion for their favorite horses and healthy debate, its all good when you have bettors engaged in discussion about the sport that has nothing to do with gambling.

[Redboard]

SRU, tell me what this thread hasn't said......

And you tell us why you are reading a thread whose subject you are not interested in.

[ReplayRandall]

And you tell us why you are reading a thread whose subject you are not interested in.


Only because of your fascinating posts, Redboard..........:rolleyes:

[Redboard]

Only because of your fascinating posts, Redboard..........:rolleyes:
Thanks dad.

[rastajenk]

Seems to me its everything that's right about racing, fans showing some passion for their favorite horses and healthy debate, its all good when you have bettors engaged in discussion about the sport that has nothing to do with gambling.
Remember this date....I agree with this post from this guy 100% completely. :jump:

:D

[Rex Phinney]

What about CC trying the grass?

If California Chrome wins a G1 on grass, this debate is over.

[Stillriledup]

Remember this date....I agree with this post from this guy 100% completely. :jump:

:D

:D

First time for everything!!

[dilanesp]

I keyed against him in the Travers for all the same reasons I think he got lucky in the Classic, but he got very unlucky in the Travers.

He looked a little suspect twice at longer distances (1m and 1 1/8M) but looked like a champion when he got loose going long on biased tracks. So at 10F in the Travers he had to be suspect. He wound up being pushed hard (in questionable rides on both Tonalist and Wicked Strong) on a day when the rail was not the best path and on a track somewhat tilted towards closers. That's why he got buried. But he got buried so badly it's hard for me to think he really wants to go that far under honest conditions.

Then he got loose again on a track I made biased and won the Classic.

I think he's not at his best at 10F and got lucky in the Classic given my views on the tracks and trips. IMO, it is what it is. I'd have no problem emptying my pockets against him if they reran the Classic on another track with a fair break. I think he'd finish 4th at best if everyone ran the same race and it was cleanly run.

By the way, I am not convinced the BC track was biased on Saturday. There is conflicting evidence on this. Let's wait until we see some horses run back.

[Rex Phinney]

By the way, I am not convinced the BC track was biased on Saturday. There is conflicting evidence on this. Let's wait until we see some horses run back.

The first 4 finished exactly as they were at the 3/8ths pole.

In the last half mile the only two horses to move up were Shared Belief who passed one horse and Tonalist who passed the back half of the field.

Couple that with a final time in under 2:00 and what more do you need to see?

I told the guy next to me the second Bayern won "Santa Anita turned into Santa Anita at just the right time for Bayern"

[PaceAdvantage]

What about CC trying the grass?

If California Chrome wins a G1 on grass, this debate is over.So his first win in six months (assuming he wins) is going to come against a division that's even weaker than the one he's battling others in for year-end honors? And that's supposed to end the discussion?

This seems to me to be a last-ditch effort to dazzle voters with BS...would not end the debate for me. Although I guess in such a weak year, it will count for something. I wouldn't let it sway me.

[Stillriledup]

By the way, I am not convinced the BC track was biased on Saturday. There is conflicting evidence on this. Let's wait until we see some horses run back.

Tracks change, esp in a climate like Santa Anita, very dry, lots of water in the track put there by maintenance, the bias can change from race to race, not sure if what happened at 2 and 3 pm means that what happened at 5:47 pm under cloudy conditions would always have to be the same thing.

SA biases change from race to race sometimes.

[Stillriledup]

So his first win in six months (assuming he wins) is going to come against a division that's even weaker than the one he's battling others in for year-end honors? And that's supposed to end the discussion?

This seems to me to be a last-ditch effort to dazzle voters with BS...would not end the debate for me. Although I guess in such a weak year, it will count for something. I wouldn't let it sway me.

For me, it won't sway me either because i already have him ahead of Bayern, anything he does from here on in would be gravy.

[tucker6]

For me, it won't sway me either because i already have him ahead of Bayern, anything he does from here on in would be gravy.
I don't see what you see. I see a horse (CC) that has flat lined since May and has lost ground to maturing three year olds. Is that really HOY-worthy? Sugar coat it all you want, he lost every race since May. Every single one. As Bill Parcells was fond of saying, you are what your record says you are. He won his first five starts of 2014, and then is 3-0-0-1 his last three starts since May. That's either a horse that matured early and then others caught up, or a horse in serious regression mode. Which is it?

[Stillriledup]

I don't see what you see. I see a horse (CC) that has flat lined since May and has lost ground to maturing three year olds. Is that really HOY-worthy? Sugar coat it all you want, he lost every race since May. Every single one. As Bill Parcells was fond of saying, you are what your record says you are. He won his first five starts of 2014, and then is 3-0-0-1 his last three starts since May. That's either a horse that matured early and then others caught up, or a horse in serious regression mode. Which is it?

As far as HOY worthy, i don't know, i'm just talking about him being ahead of Bayern.

I try and look at the entire body of work since it is 12 months that we're discussing. I give him a lot of credit for being "Forced" to race 2 weeks after the Derby......that could have knocked him out. How about this hypothetical argument. Lets say CC loses the Derby by a nose. If he lost the Derby, he probably skips the Preakness. He might have been fresh enough to win the Belmont. Also, because he didn't come back in 2 weeks, his entire campaign is mapped out different...he had to rest after the Belmont and then was playing catchup the rest of the way. I know how fragile these animals are so i give a TON of credit if you go above and beyond and race in all 3 legs of the TC.

I also hold the 20 length losses against Bayern. If Bayern raced in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, do you know how many lengths he would have lost the Belmont by? He might not even have finished. If Bayern's raced in the exact same races that CC raced in this year, no way he's around for the Classic, he might have lost the Belmont by 79 lengths and then got retired the next day for all we know.

CC was right on the wire for the most part in the Classic. If CC wins the Belmont AND the Classic, which he only needed 2 or 3 more lengths in total, we would be talking about him in an entirely different light.

[Tom]

I don't see what you see. I see a horse (CC) that has flat lined since May and has lost ground to maturing three year olds. Is that really HOY-worthy? Sugar coat it all you want, he lost every race since May. Every single one. As Bill Parcells was fond of saying, you are what your record says you are. He won his first five starts of 2014, and then is 3-0-0-1 his last three starts since May. That's either a horse that matured early and then others caught up, or a horse in serious regression mode. Which is it?
If you consider a close third in the Classic to be flat lining or serious regression.....than anything is possible. But he ran one clunker of a race and Bayern was trounced several times. Looking at the rest of the 3yo crop...where the hell are they after their one hit wonder races?

[Stillriledup]

If you consider a close third in the Classic to be flat lining or serious regression.....than anything is possible. But he ran one clunker of a race and Bayern was trounced several times. Looking at the rest of the 3yo crop...where the hell are they after their one hit wonder races?

Totally agree.
Bayern wouldn't have been rugged enough with his style to withstand the entire triple crown series, all 3 legs like CC did. So yeah, if you rest and pick your spots and get managed perfectly, you can look better than you might have otherwise looked.

[PaceAdvantage]

As far as HOY worthy, i don't know, i'm just talking about him being ahead of Bayern.

I try and look at the entire body of work since it is 12 months that we're discussing. I give him a lot of credit for being "Forced" to race 2 weeks after the Derby......that could have knocked him out. How about this hypothetical argument. Lets say CC loses the Derby by a nose. If he lost the Derby, he probably skips the Preakness. He might have been fresh enough to win the Belmont. Also, because he didn't come back in 2 weeks, his entire campaign is mapped out different...he had to rest after the Belmont and then was playing catchup the rest of the way. I know how fragile these animals are so i give a TON of credit if you go above and beyond and race in all 3 legs of the TC.

I also hold the 20 length losses against Bayern. If Bayern raced in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, do you know how many lengths he would have lost the Belmont by? He might not even have finished. If Bayern's raced in the exact same races that CC raced in this year, no way he's around for the Classic, he might have lost the Belmont by 79 lengths and then got retired the next day for all we know.

CC was right on the wire for the most part in the Classic. If CC wins the Belmont AND the Classic, which he only needed 2 or 3 more lengths in total, we would be talking about him in an entirely different light.I notice you tend to bring up lots and lots of "what ifs" and hypotheticals when trying to make your case for CC. That's never a good sign.

[Stillriledup]

I notice you tend to bring up lots and lots of "what ifs" and hypotheticals when trying to make your case for CC. That's never a good sign.

There's a lot of hypotheticals in this game, not a heck of a lot of it is cut and dried. With me you get a lot of credit for racing in the TC series all 3 legs. This is a very fragile game, not too many horses can withstand 3 legs of the TC and battling for the win in all 3, to me, that puts a horse over the hump, 2 lengths away from winning the TC is alright in my book.

[MargieRose]

I don't see what you see. I see a horse (CC) that has flat lined since May and has lost ground to maturing three year olds. Is that really HOY-worthy? Sugar coat it all you want, he lost every race since May. Every single one. As Bill Parcells was fond of saying, you are what your record says you are. He won his first five starts of 2014, and then is 3-0-0-1 his last three starts since May. That's either a horse that matured early and then others caught up, or a horse in serious regression mode. Which is it?

Neither!!...CA Chrome sustained an injury. It affected him physically and, probably, mentally...Only he knows, to what extent! He may not have been quite recovered enough either way in time for the PA Derby. More time goes by...he regains his form, as we all saw in the BCC. He is not a has-been, by a long shot!! How long did it take Animal Kingdom to fully recover his form from his Belmont injury? How long will Palace Malice have been sidelined because of a "bone bruise," when he returns to racing in 2015?

Give the horse a break, already!!

[dilanesp]

The first 4 finished exactly as they were at the 3/8ths pole.

In the last half mile the only two horses to move up were Shared Belief who passed one horse and Tonalist who passed the back half of the field.

Couple that with a final time in under 2:00 and what more do you need to see?

I told the guy next to me the second Bayern won "Santa Anita turned into Santa Anita at just the right time for Bayern"

1. First of all, final time has little to do with bias. I've seen slow tracks with biases and fast tracks without them.

2. You are describing what happened in one race. It wasn't as though the first 3 finishers weren't logical horses. Arcangues didn't win the 2013 Classic; a totally logical horse won it after making an easy lead and having a trip that wins lots of races even on unbiased tracks.

3. If you look at the rest of the results on BC Saturday on the dirt, most of the wire to wire winners were logical (the only one that wasn't was Take Charge Brandi, and she got a really easy trip), and two horses won coming from behind-- Texas Red in the Juvenile coming from way back, and Work All Week came from second and ran down a horse who got loose on the lead going six furlongs in the Sprint.

I do not see enough evidence to just flatly announce there was a bias. Handicappers see one horse go wire to wire or one fast time and quickly announce "speed is holding up today!". You need more evidence than that. Let's wait for some horses to come back before declaring a bias.

[dilanesp]

Tracks change, esp in a climate like Santa Anita, very dry, lots of water in the track put there by maintenance, the bias can change from race to race, not sure if what happened at 2 and 3 pm means that what happened at 5:47 pm under cloudy conditions would always have to be the same thing.

SA biases change from race to race sometimes.

Yeah, but that kind of thing is unprovable until you have a LOT of evidence.

Bayern running wire to wire in the Classic after getting an easy lead is not evidence of ANYTHING. Nor are the performances of Toast of New York or California Chrome, both of whom were obvious contenders.

[classhandicapper]

CC has a chance to settle this if he can win another Grade I race when he runs on turf in the Hollywood Derby later this month. It's probably going to be a pretty tough spot to win at first asking on the turf. I'll probably be betting against him, but if he does manage to win, I think he gets HOTY. That would be his 4th Grade 1, multiple surfaces, and quite a good campaign.

[cj]

1. First of all, final time has little to do with bias. I've seen slow tracks with biases and fast tracks without them.

2. You are describing what happened in one race. It wasn't as though the first 3 finishers weren't logical horses. Arcangues didn't win the 2013 Classic; a totally logical horse won it after making an easy lead and having a trip that wins lots of races even on unbiased tracks.

3. If you look at the rest of the results on BC Saturday on the dirt, most of the wire to wire winners were logical (the only one that wasn't was Take Charge Brandi, and she got a really easy trip), and two horses won coming from behind-- Texas Red in the Juvenile coming from way back, and Work All Week came from second and ran down a horse who got loose on the lead going six furlongs in the Sprint.

I do not see enough evidence to just flatly announce there was a bias. Handicappers see one horse go wire to wire or one fast time and quickly announce "speed is holding up today!". You need more evidence than that. Let's wait for some horses to come back before declaring a bias.

1) Agreed, though faster tracks are more likely to be biased than slow tracks. But as you say, it isn't a certainty.

2) Agreed.

3) Don't forget Judy the Beauty (and the runner up)

That said, I do think the track was biased early in the card, including the Take Charge Brandi race. It was a drying out track. But afterwards, not so much.

[cj]

CC has a chance to settle this if he can win another Grade I race when he runs on turf in the Hollywood Derby later this month. It's probably going to be a pretty tough spot to win at first asking on the turf. I'll probably be betting against him, but if he does manage to win, I think he gets HOTY. That would be his 4th Grade 1, multiple surfaces, and quite a good campaign.

Personally I think having a Grade 1 "Derby" this late in the year is a joke. That said, it can't hurt if he wins, but if he doesn't, I think it eliminates him. Three year old male turf horses isn't exactly a marquis division.

[Stillriledup]

Yeah, but that kind of thing is unprovable until you have a LOT of evidence.

Bayern running wire to wire in the Classic after getting an easy lead is not evidence of ANYTHING. Nor are the performances of Toast of New York or California Chrome, both of whom were obvious contenders.

True, you need evidence to determine if its a speed track or not. When i see a horse like that go wire to wire at a mile and a quarter, my default thinking is "speed favoring" or else how would he have won? If the track was favoring closers, he doesn't win. He COULD win on a neutral track, but its likely that the track was more speed favoring than neutral as most races at SA tend to be that way.

[cj]

He COULD win on a neutral track, but its likely that the track was more speed favoring than neutral as most races at SA tend to be that way.

Most races on nearly every dirt track tend to be that way.

[dilanesp]

True, you need evidence to determine if its a speed track or not. When i see a horse like that go wire to wire at a mile and a quarter, my default thinking is "speed favoring" or else how would he have won? If the track was favoring closers, he doesn't win. He COULD win on a neutral track, but its likely that the track was more speed favoring than neutral as most races at SA tend to be that way.

Part of this may well be my regional "bias", if you will. But I've never seen the big deal of speed horses going 1 1/4 miles. Sure some of them get tired, including good ones-- Holy Bull didn't like things very much in the Kentucky Derby, for instance. But plenty of them get the distance just fine. Here in California, Swaps and Native Diver were fine at it before I was born, and Ack Ack, JO Tobin, Affirmed, Marquetry, Ruhlmann, Bertrando, Game on Dude, and countless others have gotten the trip since. That wasn't because all our tracks were ridiculously speed biased. I assure you plenty of closers won on the days when those horses won their 1 1/4 mile races.

You give a quality speed horse a trip like Bayern got, and he'll get 1 1/4 miles. We've seen this several times in the Kentucky Derby-- for instance, remember War Emblem and Winning Colors and Spend a Buck? None of those horses were running on a supposedly speed biased California track. How about Black Tie Affair in the BC Classic at Churchill?

I think your default thinking is off. Classy speed horses often have some stamina, when the pace doesn't burn them up. That's not evidence of a biased track.

[Stillriledup]

Most races on nearly every dirt track tend to be that way.

Right. The Front runners or horses who save ground have a big advantage, my point was that a track like SA is just more speed favoring than tracks like Parx, or Penn National or Mountaineer, those tracks tend to have "Dead rails" much more often than you see a dead rail at SA.

But you're right that the default "bias" is that speed and inside ought to outperform wide closers all things being equal.

[cj]

Right. The Front runners or horses who save ground have a big advantage, my point was that a track like SA is just more speed favoring than tracks like Parx, or Penn National or Mountaineer, those tracks tend to have "Dead rails" much more often than you see a dead rail at SA.

But you're right that the default "bias" is that speed and inside ought to outperform wide closers all things being equal.

Well, those are pretty minor league tracks, to be kind. I'll leave it at that.

[Stillriledup]

Part of this may well be my regional "bias", if you will. But I've never seen the big deal of speed horses going 1 1/4 miles. Sure some of them get tired, including good ones-- Holy Bull didn't like things very much in the Kentucky Derby, for instance. But plenty of them get the distance just fine. Here in California, Swaps and Native Diver were fine at it before I was born, and Ack Ack, JO Tobin, Affirmed, Marquetry, Ruhlmann, Bertrando, Game on Dude, and countless others have gotten the trip since. That wasn't because all our tracks were ridiculously speed biased. I assure you plenty of closers won on the days when those horses won their 1 1/4 mile races.

You give a quality speed horse a trip like Bayern got, and he'll get 1 1/4 miles. We've seen this several times in the Kentucky Derby-- for instance, remember War Emblem and Winning Colors and Spend a Buck? None of those horses were running on a supposedly speed biased California track. How about Black Tie Affair in the BC Classic at Churchill?

I think your default thinking is off. Classy speed horses often have some stamina, when the pace doesn't burn them up. That's not evidence of a biased track.

You're talking about superhorses as examples and not rules. I'm talking in general So Cal tracks are much more speed favoring than eastern tracks, especially when the eastern tracks are dealing with frozen precip, icy winds, etc. Some days at Parx if you're anywhere near the rail you perish, that's a rare day when there's a dead rail in Calif.

[Rex Phinney]

So his first win in six months (assuming he wins) is going to come against a division that's even weaker than the one he's battling others in for year-end honors? And that's supposed to end the discussion?

This seems to me to be a last-ditch effort to dazzle voters with BS...would not end the debate for me. Although I guess in such a weak year, it will count for something. I wouldn't let it sway me.

There is no clear cut winner for the award right now, he appears to be headed for more racing this year and the others appear done for the year. Why would it be crazy to think this would help him? I think I'd like to see someone take a shot at the Clark but it doesn't seem likely.

Look I'm no CC leg humper, I think Shared Belief is the better horse, but he was totally compromised in the classic.

California Chrome won everything in sight the first half of the year, he was knocking down Grade 1's like peppermints. I had him totally written off after the Penn Derby, but his performance in the classic tells me he is a pretty darn good horse, that his connections were just dumb to bring him back the way they did in Penn (I kept saying they should try the $100,000 Del Mar Derby in late August). But he clearly took a step forward in the Classic.

I'd rather see Shared Belief, Bayern, or Wise Dan (anyone else) win the award, but if CC finishes the year winning a G1 on grass, he deserves HOTY. It will be his 9th race this year, a possible 6th win on 4 different tracks over dirt and turf.

We may not like his connections and we may bet against him any chance we get, but can you really stick Bayern ahead of CC? He won at Monmouth and the classic because noone challenged him, he took out half the field in the classic???

[classhandicapper]

Personally I think having a Grade 1 "Derby" this late in the year is a joke. That said, it can't hurt if he wins, but if he doesn't, I think it eliminates him. Three year old male turf horses isn't exactly a marquis division.

IMO, failing on a different surface shouldn't eliminate a horse, but in this case it will because he's effectively climbing an uphill battle anyway.

[ReplayRandall]

Believe it or not, HOY may be decided by the Gr-1 Clark Handicap, Churchill Downs Nov.28th. That's my call........


Looks like Bayern is nominated for the Clark, don't know if he'll run for sure:

http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/clark.pdf


P.S.- Here are the PP's

http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/clark%20pps.pdf

[Appy]

Star spangled lineup on that page.
What...no Shared Belief?

[Redboard]

Since Santa Anita opens on the last week of December, it would be cool if they held an overnight stakes race for $1 million for the top six finishers of the BC classic. Give them all a $100k appearance fee.

[Grits]

Looks like Bayern is nominated for the Clark, don't know if he'll run for sure:

http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/clark.pdf


P.S.- Here are the PP's

http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/clark%20pps.pdf

For so many years, this has always been a good day of racing. One anchored by the Clark.

[AFilly4theAges]

I guess if one wants to make a weak year even weaker, they can vote CC as HOY. I can't believe how ridiculous this sounds, even as I type it...

A horse who loses 2 out of 3 to the winner of the BC Classic is going to be voted HOY? Alrighty then...

And lets not forget that CC is better suited to 10 furlongs than Bayern, and he still couldn't beat him in the BCC, even with the good trip he received...Bayern got crushed the two prior times he attempted anything beyond 9 furlongs....one of those to CC himself...this makes the BCC victory even more impressive.

I agree with all said in this post. Imho,CC's connections were way to conservative with his racing dates.The Penn Derby,nada,The J.C.G.C. would imho been a better spot for him.And as I posted in a previous post,this was the "Year of the 3yo".Stamina,tenacity and endurance prevailed..Bayern!

[dilanesp]

I agree with all said in this post. Imho,CC's connections were way to conservative with his racing dates.The Penn Derby,nada,The J.C.G.C. would imho been a better spot for him.And as I posted in a previous post,this was the "Year of the 3yo".Stamina,tenacity and endurance prevailed..Bayern!

I didn't like their prep schedule, though it was more the number of preps and the lack of a prep against older horses than the location.

But I don't think you can say the horse was underprepared. CC ran his race. He finished third and right alongside the winner and second place finisher. Sherman had the horse ready to fire. A different prep race wouldn't have helped any.