Differences between larger and smaller tracks

[mikel9478]

Do any of you find that smaller tracks are much different then larger ones? For me i have a higher hit rate and payout on tracks like belmont and aqueduct. They are a little easier to handicap as well as to find value. - Thank you

[DeltaLover]

Do any of you find that smaller tracks are much different then larger ones? For me i have a higher hit rate and payout on tracks like belmont and aqueduct. They are a little easier to handicap as well as to find value. - Thank you


p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 120%; } Of course they are much different and some of the reasons they should be avoided are the following:

(1) Pols tend to be very small, something that limits by default the possibility for a large score

(2) The bulk of the bets are placed while the horse are loading, making it impossible to keep track of the betting action

(3) Since in most of the minor tracks they can negotiate special rebate agreements, whales enjoy an unfair advantage over the rest of the betting crowd


(4) Racing in these tracks, is way more in-transparent, since all of the local horsemen are close friends and even family, making it almost impossible for the outsider to score.

(5) Racing Secretaries tend to tailor conditions way more on small tracks that they do in real racetracks, something that weakens the betting interest significantly

(6) The incapacity of the local jockeys is such, that handicapping is diminished and luck is amplified as a final result outcome

[Overlay]

(6) The incapacity of the local jockeys is such, that handicapping is diminished and luck is amplified as a final result outcome
When you say "incapacity", do you mean that the influence of the jockey on the outcome of a race at a smaller track is diminished by all the other factors that you mentioned, in comparison to the influence of the jockey at a larger track?

[DeltaLover]

When you say "incapacity", do you mean that the influence of the jockey on the outcome of a race at a smaller track is diminished by all the other factors that you mentioned, in comparison to the influence of the jockey at a larger track?

I mean that the probability of a jockey's error is higher in smaller circuits, something that increases the randomness of the race which in this case, resembles more a crap shoot rather than a sporting event

[Overlay]

I mean that the probability of a jockey's error is higher in smaller circuits, something that increases the randomness of the race which in this case, resembles more a crap shoot rather than a sporting event
Thank you for the clarification.

[thaskalos]

I mean that the probability of a jockey's error is higher in smaller circuits, something that increases the randomness of the race which in this case, resembles more a crap shoot rather than a sporting event
Except that we at least know that a crap shoot is "honest"...

[DeltaLover]

Except that we at least know that a scrap shoot is "honest"...

That's a nice clarification Thask :ThmbUp:

[mikel9478]

p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 120%; } Of course they are much different and some of the reasons they should be avoided are the following:

(1) Pols tend to be very small, something that limits by default the possibility for a large score

(2) The bulk of the bets are placed while the horse are loading, making it impossible to keep track of the betting action

(3) Since in most of the minor tracks they can negotiate special rebate agreements, whales enjoy an unfair advantage over the rest of the betting crowd


(4) Racing in these tracks, is way more in-transparent, since all of the local horsemen are close friends and even family, making it almost impossible for the outsider to score.

(5) Racing Secretaries tend to tailor conditions way more on small tracks that they do in real racetracks, something that weakens the betting interest significantly

(6) The incapacity of the local jockeys is such, that handicapping is diminished and luck is amplified as a final result outcome
Thank you!!

[Stillriledup]

p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 120%; } Of course they are much different and some of the reasons they should be avoided are the following:

(1) Pols tend to be very small, something that limits by default the possibility for a large score

(2) The bulk of the bets are placed while the horse are loading, making it impossible to keep track of the betting action

(3) Since in most of the minor tracks they can negotiate special rebate agreements, whales enjoy an unfair advantage over the rest of the betting crowd


(4) Racing in these tracks, is way more in-transparent, since all of the local horsemen are close friends and even family, making it almost impossible for the outsider to score.

(5) Racing Secretaries tend to tailor conditions way more on small tracks that they do in real racetracks, something that weakens the betting interest significantly

(6) The incapacity of the local jockeys is such, that handicapping is diminished and luck is amplified as a final result outcome

Expand on #3, not sure what you mean by "Special agreement".

[Stillriledup]

Do any of you find that smaller tracks are much different then larger ones? For me i have a higher hit rate and payout on tracks like belmont and aqueduct. They are a little easier to handicap as well as to find value. - Thank you

There's more value at smaller places due to less sophisticated bettors betting there. If you are a small bettor who bets 20s and 40s or less, the smaller track is a good place to start.

When you say the better tracks are easier to handicap, are you talking about the fact that because top tier tracks have good races, most of the horses look good on paper and show some kind of established form? I know when handicapping minor circuits, you'll often run across races where nobody shows anything at all, horses can barely break 0 on the Beyer scale.

As far as value goes, i've found that there's better value at smaller tracks.

[Robert Goren]

How small is small? How large is large?

I have not seen any reason to believe #5 is true. It looks to me like they do plenty of race fitting at all tracks regardless of size.

[Stillriledup]

DL on #6

Iv'e found that because the jocks are weak at the smaller tracks, its another variable in the handicapping process. At these places, some jocks may be out of order on the talent scale due to not having as good of an agent as someone else. If the 5th best rider, for example, has an amazing agent and the 3rd best rider's agent isnt' nearly as good, the 5th best rider may be ahead of the 3rd best jock in the standings....and if you can sniff that out by watching replays carefully, watching how jocks sit on horses and other stuff, you might be able to have an edge.

[banacek]

(5) Racing Secretaries tend to tailor conditions way more on small tracks that they do in real racetracks, something that weakens the betting interest significantly


Real?

[DeltaLover]

Expand on #3, not sure what you mean by "Special agreement".

I have heard from a very respectable source, that 'whales' are having special deals with certain tracks, pushing their rebates to levels close to 10%

[Stillriledup]

I have heard from a very respectable source, that 'whales' are having special deals with certain tracks, pushing their rebates to levels close to 10%

But isn't this with every track?

[Robert Goren]

Do any of you find that smaller tracks are much different then larger ones? For me i have a higher hit rate and payout on tracks like belmont and aqueduct. They are a little easier to handicap as well as to find value. - Thank you I bet NYRA because they run all year long. I grew up betting small tracks. They are different from large tracks. At the large tracks, all the jockeys and trainers have at least some degree of proficiency. That is a huge difference.

[DeltaLover]

DL on #6

Iv'e found that because the jocks are weak at the smaller tracks, its another variable in the handicapping process. At these places, some jocks may be out of order on the talent scale due to not having as good of an agent as someone else. If the 5th best rider, for example, has an amazing agent and the 3rd best rider's agent isnt' nearly as good, the 5th best rider may be ahead of the 3rd best jock in the standings....and if you can sniff that out by watching replays carefully, watching how jocks sit on horses and other stuff, you might be able to have an edge.

I will agree that weak jocks is another variable in the handicapping process albeit they tend to complicate it... Still, feel that having less probability for a jock error, is better for my bottom line since it is easier to handicap the horse than the human

[DeltaLover]

But isn't this with every track?

Based in what I know, the margin is way wider in the smaller tracks.. One of the top posters here knows more about it and if he feels so, he can talk more about it.

[DeltaLover]

Real?

I do not want to say that large tracks do not do i, but certainly not in the scale of the smaller. Anyway it is not exactly the same to tailor a race for a horse like Rapid Redux like doing the same for another one called Cigar!

[Stillriledup]

Based in what I know, the margin is way wider in the smaller tracks.. One of the top posters here knows more about it and if he feels so, he can talk more about it.

But the margin is not a "Special deal" its just that if you're a B or C track, bettors can "take or leave" your signal and thus, you have to give the rebate bettor more incentive to wager at your place so yeah, the rebates at the minor tracks will be bigger, but i don't think that's any special deal, unless there's something more to it than meets the eye?

[Stillriledup]

I will agree that weak jocks is another variable in the handicapping process albeit they tend to complicate it... Still, feel that having less probability for a jock error, is better for my bottom line since it is easier to handicap the horse than the human

Im not going to mention any names, but a couple decades ago i was absolutely cleaning up betting the 8th leading rider whenever he got on a horse that the leading rider picked off. He was just better, but didnt speak english all that well, probably had a bad agent and the leading rider was one of these well spoken very likeable gents, but i knew who the better jock was at the time and was cleaning up betting on him, especially when he would pick up the leading jocks sloppy seconds.

Another situation happened when Martin Garcia was an apprentice in Northern Calif, he was riding circles around Russell Baze and there was money to be made as people didn't catch on that Garcia was great and was getting 5 lbs, the fun ended with Garcia beat Russell for a riding title up there, one of the rare times Russell didn't win a riding title, this may have been at Bay Meadows.

[banacek]

I do not want to say that large tracks do not do i, but certainly not in the scale of the smaller. Anyway it is not exactly the same to tailor a race for a horse like Rapid Redux like doing the same for another one called Cigar!

I repeat Real? You mean the horses are imaginary? Many of the differences you suggest may be there, but you don't need to be that derogatory about horsemen/horsewomen because they are not in California/New York or Kentucky. Work All Week ran at Fairmount Park and Indiana..did all right at a real track last weekend :)

[DeltaLover]

I repeat Real? You mean the horses are imaginary? Many of the differences you suggest may be there, but you don't need to be that derogatory about horsemen/horsewomen because they are not in California/New York or Kentucky. Work All Week ran at Fairmount Park and Indiana..did all right at a real track last weekend :)
of course i have no intention of offending anyone, much less professionals who try to make a living. it is true that some times there are horses coming from the minor leagues that can make it in the big tracks too. if the word real sounds offensive, i can change it to major.. the meaning is still the same though

[banacek]

Of course i have no intention of offending anyone, much less professionals who try to make a living. it is true that some times there are horses coming from the minor leagues that can make it in the big tracks too. if the word real sounds offensive, i can change it to major.. the meaning is still the same though

Major is much better :ThmbUp:

[appistappis]

major tracks: know your horses (speed, pace, class etc)

minor tracks: know your trainers (drugs, intent, etc)

[thaskalos]

You can do well at the minor tracks, as long as you don't rely on speed figures...or expect the horses to run two good races in a row.

[Tom]

You can make money at smaller tracks if you know what you are doing.
If you are losing at them I suggest the problem is not on that list. That looks like a list of excuses, not reasons.

[mikel9478]

I bet NYRA because they run all year long. I grew up betting small tracks. They are different from large tracks. At the large tracks, all the jockeys and trainers have at least some degree of proficiency. That is a huge difference.

Ive been playing the same since ive begun, and its where im comfortable.