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View Full Version : Breeders Cup post mortem


Valuist
11-02-2014, 12:51 PM
Classic: Most unwritten rules in sports are silly; not calling a late game foul on a star player in the NBA; not stealing a base leading by a certain number of runs in MLB. But the no DQs at the break unwritten rule is one that makes sense, IMO. And just because there was no DQ, does not mean there won't be a suspension for Martin Garcia. My guess is there will, and there should be. I thought what Jamie Spencer did aboard Toast of New York could've been worthy of a DQ; Shared Belief was maybe close to 100 yards out of the gate when he was body slammed by Toast of New York. The irony is that Spencer, who's given some of the most brutal rides in big grass races over the past 12-13 years in North America, almost won the US' biggest dirt race in the final ride (supposedly) of his career. But the racing karma gods stepped in, and wouldn't let Toast of NY pass Bayern, and let the result stand. Larry Colmus, normally a good race caller, did not have his finest hour in the Classic. He contributed to the hysteria with a War of the Worlds call at the break. He might as well have said "Oh my God!!!! Shared Belief has been murdered at the break!!!! Oh the humanity of it all!! So hearing this, the stewards felt obligated to look at the start. I'm not sure if they focused on the second incident; but in fairness to the stewards, how do you explain to a largely newbie crowd that one foul is allowable but the second isn't? They weren't going to do a double DQ.

Bias- Horseplayers can complain about it all they want, but it would be foolish not to think it wouldn't be a possibility. On regular days, that surface can favor speed. Coincidence or not, we do seem to see lightning fast surfaces on real big racing days. Especially there. It is what it is and as bettors, we have to adapt. Many of us old school bettors like track bias, and we see far less of it now than we did 20 years ago.

Venue- No track should hold it year after year. I'm glad to see Keeneland get it for the first time next year. I'd like to see an alternation like this: year 1: SA or Dmr, year 2: a NYRA track. year 3: CD or Kee, year 4: a choice between Arlington, Gulfstream, Lone Star, Monmouth and maybe FG. I know Gulfstream hosted it before but has a much smaller grandstand than when they had it. Is it Monmouth's fault they had a monsoon in 2007? Yes, you are more likely to have good weather in southern California, but didn't the Euros complain many times about the heat there?

New York horses- the turf runners had no problem transferring their form to SoCal but the dirt runners certainly did. Was it the bias? Was the surface change from sandy Belmont to rock hard SA too much? Or were they a little overrated? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

Rosie Napravnik- I'd consider it a "hiatus" and not a retirement. Able bodied athletes in the prime of their career don't give it up for good. Of course its a different scenario with a female athlete. If you can still do it, and the money is there, its really hard to walk away. Look at Gary Stevens, Shane Sellers, Mark Guidry, Garrett Gomez. All those guys supposedly retired and came back, and some of them despite numerous injuries. Jockeys are intensely competitive; it would be easier for her to make a clean break if she wasn't married to a trainer. A year from now, they'll be at the dinner table, and Rosie will ask her husband, "what was up with that ride by xxxxx on your horse in the 5th?" And he'll say, "do you think you could do better? And she will say, yeah I think so. So then she will start out, riding a few horses for him. Then a guy w/a big barn like Amoss will get her to ride a few. Next thing you know, she's got a full book, riding Gulfstream in the winter, Keeneland in the spring, and Saratoga in the summer. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Euros- Once again, we saw a lesser regarded Euro in Karakontie come in and beat higher regarded Europeans. Flintshire gave a good account of himself, but I think the verdict is in on the filles and mares: the US older turf fillies/mares are very strong.

Juveniles- The results or both races left more questions than answers. Several strong contenders in the Juvenile had outer draws and very wide trips. As for the Juvie Fillies, lets see that Lukas horse do that again.....on a neutral surface.

Wesley Ward- virtually everything he ran gave a stellar effort. I was against some of his runners and it cost me. He knows what he is doing.

dilanesp
11-02-2014, 07:47 PM
Classic: You are mostly right, but I doubt the stewards heard Collmus' call. The announcer at the track is Trevor Denman.

Bias: I'm not even convinced yet that there was a bias. There probably was one, but let's wait until horses come back. A couple of come from behinders won on Saturday, and they were not cinch winners.

Venue: Everyone on PA who ever comments on this issue needs to start out by talking about economics. The reason why the BC doesn't rotate all around to be "fair" to the other tracks is because they make less money at those other tracks. I haven't seen an economic analysis of Keeneland, but there's no way they are going to make the kind of money there that they make at Santa Anita. The BC is a private enterprise and is run to make a profit.

At any rate, Santa Anita is actually a great venue. Good weather (which is really important), great sightlines, lots of good seats with a good view of the track, experience handling big crowds, connections with the entertainment industry which means great parties and hospitality, etc. And many of the tracks you mention don't want to host the BC at this time anyway (e.g., NYRA, which has not even been bidding for it). Some others simply cannot handle the crowds (Fair Grounds, Gulfstream in its current configuration).

New York horses: You should consider sample size. Sometimes the New York horses aren't as good as the other horses, or maybe they are as good but just don't fire for ideosyncratic reasons.

Rosie: It depends on how she feels about being a working mother in a theoretically dangerous profession, and how many kids she wants to have.

Euros: I agree.

Juveniles: I agree about the Lukas filly, but Texas Red's move was spectacular (and if you believe the BS about the bias, against the bias). He was 3 behind at the 1/4 and 2 in front at the 3/16th. It was that fast. I think he's the real deal (which means American Pharoah and Calculator, who beat him, may be the real deal too).

Wesley Ward: I agree.

Valuist
11-03-2014, 10:15 PM
Yes Texas Red was very impressive. But the win margin was likely inflated by the wide chase trips several of the other contenders had.