Big Day Mindset (How I Crushed The Cup)

[PaceAdvantage]

Anyone who has been a member here for a substantial amount of time knows how I operate on the big racing days. I am not afraid to go deep in my search for value. I know on big days, with big fields and more dead money in play, that you can't be afraid to bet three, four, even five horses to win in a single race. And this paid off in a big way once again in the Breeders' Cup.

I'm no genius. I'm no great handicapper. If I was, I wouldn't have achieved the rather remarkable feat of betting five horses to win in the 7th race and cashing not a single ticket.

However, I've learned something about the marquee races. You absolutely can not be afraid to bet every single contender you have that is offering value on your line. Even if that means abandoning how you would attack a "normal race." For you see, these are not normal races. These are not races where there are only a couple of contenders. These are million dollar races where most if not all of the connections have been pointing. These are the best horses available anywhere. Class from top to bottom in many cases. Horses with very good chances of winning WILL go off at double digit prices with regularity - no two ways about it. Value runs rampant on these days, and it's your job to be live to as much of it as you can.

Discard the notion that you're not a real handicapper unless you have narrowed the race down to a single win wager. That's nonsense. The same handicapper who has no problem using four or five horses while crafting an exacta ticket in a 9-horse field will shy away from betting more than one horse to win in a field of 12 to 14 top class horses? Why? That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Throw out the handicapping machismo that leads to thinking only real handicappers bet one or maybe two horses at most to win. Not on days where the fields are more than full and the contenders are many.

Let my record on Saturday speak for itself. Every one of these horses was posted as a value play before the race went off...in this thread --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118063

Race 4-| $125.40 | :6: :12: :5:
Race 5--| $13.00 | :4: :6: :1: :2:
Race 6----| $0.00 | :3: :8:
Race 7----| $0.00 | :1: :11: :13: :8: :4:
Race 8----| $0.00 | :11:
Race 9----| $0.00 | :4: :11:
Race10--| $40.20 | :13: :1: :12: :5:
Race11--| $62.00 | :14: :9: :3:
Race12----| $0.00 | :3: :12: :8: :5:

Total Wagered ($2 base): $56
Total Returned ($2 base): $240.60
P/L: +$184.60
ROI: +329%

[Stillriledup]

I agree.

People get hung up on the word "horses". You're not betting horses, you're betting bets. You're betting combinations. If you box 3 horses in an exacta, its exactly the same as making 6 win bets, you're betting 6 combinations.

[Nitro]

I had a pretty good day myself along with JJMartin on this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118034&page=1

R3 = 12-4-11-7 - WIN - EX - TRI - SUP - COLD
$2.00 WIN 12 $7.80
$1.00 EXACTA 12-4 $15.40
$1.00 TRIFECTA 12-4-11 $62.00
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 12-4-11-7 $130.10

R#4 = 6-11-10-1 – OUT

R#5 = 4-10-2-3-5 - EX BX
$1.00 EXACTA 4-10 $27.10

R#6 = 7-8-4-3 - WIN
$2.00 - WIN 7 - $8.20

R#7 = 6-14-11-15 - WIN & EX
$2.00 WIN 6 - $16.40
$1.00 EXACTA 6-14 $54.10

R#8 - 7-9-13-4 - EX BX
$1.00 EXACTA 7-9 $50.30

R#9 = 12-7-2-1 - WIN & EX
$2.00 WIN 12 $14.40
$1.00 EXACTA 12-7 $32.40

R#10 = 13-4-5-14 – OUT

R#11 = 14-9-8-10 – OUT

R#12 = 7-9-13-6 - WIN
$2.00 WIN 7 - $14.40

But it was not quite as Hong Kong on this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118086&page=1

GL

[lamboguy]

Anyone who has been a member here for a substantial amount of time knows how I operate on the big racing days. I am not afraid to go deep in my search for value. I know on big days, with big fields and more dead money in play, that you can't be afraid to bet three, four, even five horses to win in a single race. And this paid off in a big way once again in the Breeders' Cup.

I'm no genius. I'm no great handicapper. If I was, I wouldn't have achieved the rather remarkable feat of betting five horses to win in the 7th race and cashing not a single ticket.

However, I've learned something about the marquee races. You absolutely can not be afraid to bet every single contender you have that is offering value on your line. Even if that means abandoning how you would attack a "normal race." For you see, these are not normal races. These are not races where there are only a couple of contenders. These are million dollar races where most if not all of the connections have been pointing. These are the best horses available anywhere. Class from top to bottom in many cases. Horses with very good chances of winning WILL go off at double digit prices with regularity - no two ways about it. Value runs rampant on these days, and it's your job to be live to as much of it as you can.

Discard the notion that you're not a real handicapper unless you have narrowed the race down to a single win wager. That's nonsense. The same handicapper who has no problem using four or five horses while crafting an exacta ticket in a 9-horse field will shy away from betting more than one horse to win in a field of 12 to 14 top class horses? Why? That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Throw out the handicapping machismo that leads to thinking only real handicappers bet one or maybe two horses at most to win. Not on days where the fields are more than full and the contenders are many.

Let my record on Saturday speak for itself. Every one of these horses was posted as a value play before the race went off...in this thread --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118063

Race 4-| $125.40 | :6: :12: :5:
Race 5--| $13.00 | :4: :6: :1: :2:
Race 6----| $0.00 | :3: :8:
Race 7----| $0.00 | :1: :11: :13: :8: :4:
Race 8----| $0.00 | :11:
Race 9----| $0.00 | :4: :11:
Race10--| $40.20 | :13: :1: :12: :5:
Race11--| $62.00 | :14: :9: :3:
Race12----| $0.00 | :3: :12: :8: :5:

Total Wagered ($2 base): $56
Total Returned ($2 base): $240.60
P/L: +$184.60
ROI: +329%that's real strong. i must admit that the one of those winners that i had as a contender was the one in the 11th race, where i actually had 3 horses but didn't play the eventual winner.

what you managed to prove is that win betting on these big days is probably the very best approach to success.

most the horses in the Breeders Cup races are going to be competitive. sometimes all the horse needs is a little improvement from their last race to get the job done. because the horse doesn't show the winning type number, he gets ignored and you now have value.

the $64,000 question is how can you predict the improvement that might happen in these big races?

congratulations on one of the very best days i have ever seen anyone pick on a Breeder's Cup. it was truly awesome to watch.

[classhandicapper]

It's not unusual for me to play more than one horse to win, but I thought I was the only one that played as many as 5 horses to win on occasion in the BC.

Good day. Congrats.

[Dave Schwartz]

PA,

That was a well-written piece.

IMHO, the best handicapping advice you (personally) have ever given.


Respectfully,
Dave Schwartz

[TexasDolly]

I had a pretty good day myself along with JJMartin on this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118034&page=1

R3 = 12-4-11-7 - WIN - EX - TRI - SUP - COLD
$2.00 WIN 12 $7.80
$1.00 EXACTA 12-4 $15.40
$1.00 TRIFECTA 12-4-11 $62.00
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 12-4-11-7 $130.10

R#4 = 6-11-10-1 – OUT

R#5 = 4-10-2-3-5 - EX BX
$1.00 EXACTA 4-10 $27.10

R#6 = 7-8-4-3 - WIN
$2.00 - WIN 7 - $8.20

R#7 = 6-14-11-15 - WIN & EX
$2.00 WIN 6 - $16.40
$1.00 EXACTA 6-14 $54.10

R#8 - 7-9-13-4 - EX BX
$1.00 EXACTA 7-9 $50.30

R#9 = 12-7-2-1 - WIN & EX
$2.00 WIN 12 $14.40
$1.00 EXACTA 12-7 $32.40

R#10 = 13-4-5-14 – OUT

R#11 = 14-9-8-10 – OUT

R#12 = 7-9-13-6 - WIN
$2.00 WIN 7 - $14.40

But it was not quite as Hong Kong on this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118086&page=1

GL

Nitro, Did you short yourself ? The 13 won the 10th and
paid ~ $40.
TD

[jk3521]

Haven't checked it out, but somebody posted on DRF site that if you bet all the horses in all the races you would make a profit of $99.

[thaskalos]

Haven't checked it out, but somebody posted on DRF site that if you bet all the horses in all the races you would make a profit of $99.
Betting HOW much per horse?

[ReplayRandall]

Let my record on Saturday speak for itself. Every one of
these horses was posted as a value play before the race went off...in this
thread --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118063


Mike, let's give the folks more; Here are the results of exacta boxing your value plays per $2 base.

Race 4-| Bet $12 | :6: :12: :5:
Race 5--| Bet $24 | :4: :6: :1: :2:
Race 6----| Bet $4 | :3: :8:
Race 7----| Bet $40| :1: :11: :13: :8: :4:
Race 8----| No Bet | :11:
Race 9----| Bet $4 | :4: :11:
Race10--| Bet $24 | :13: :1: :12: :5:
Race11--| Bet $12 | :14: :9: :3:------Winner-$2 Ex paid- $663.40
Race12----| Bet $24 | :3: :12: :8: :5:

Total Wagered ($2 base): $144
Total Returned ($2 base): $663.40
Net profit: $519.40

[thaskalos]

Anyone who has been a member here for a substantial amount of time knows how I operate on the big racing days. I am not afraid to go deep in my search for value. I know on big days, with big fields and more dead money in play, that you can't be afraid to bet three, four, even five horses to win in a single race. And this paid off in a big way once again in the Breeders' Cup.

I'm no genius. I'm no great handicapper. If I was, I wouldn't have achieved the rather remarkable feat of betting five horses to win in the 7th race and cashing not a single ticket.

However, I've learned something about the marquee races. You absolutely can not be afraid to bet every single contender you have that is offering value on your line. Even if that means abandoning how you would attack a "normal race." For you see, these are not normal races. These are not races where there are only a couple of contenders. These are million dollar races where most if not all of the connections have been pointing. These are the best horses available anywhere. Class from top to bottom in many cases. Horses with very good chances of winning WILL go off at double digit prices with regularity - no two ways about it. Value runs rampant on these days, and it's your job to be live to as much of it as you can.

Discard the notion that you're not a real handicapper unless you have narrowed the race down to a single win wager. That's nonsense. The same handicapper who has no problem using four or five horses while crafting an exacta ticket in a 9-horse field will shy away from betting more than one horse to win in a field of 12 to 14 top class horses? Why? That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Throw out the handicapping machismo that leads to thinking only real handicappers bet one or maybe two horses at most to win. Not on days where the fields are more than full and the contenders are many.

Let my record on Saturday speak for itself. Every one of these horses was posted as a value play before the race went off...in this thread --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118063

Race 4-| $125.40 | :6: :12: :5:
Race 5--| $13.00 | :4: :6: :1: :2:
Race 6----| $0.00 | :3: :8:
Race 7----| $0.00 | :1: :11: :13: :8: :4:
Race 8----| $0.00 | :11:
Race 9----| $0.00 | :4: :11:
Race10--| $40.20 | :13: :1: :12: :5:
Race11--| $62.00 | :14: :9: :3:
Race12----| $0.00 | :3: :12: :8: :5:

Total Wagered ($2 base): $56
Total Returned ($2 base): $240.60
P/L: +$184.60
ROI: +329%

Great thread, PA...and excellent advice. And even if your overall ROI wasn't spectacular in this case...that's STILL the way to go, IMO. I am shocked when I see seasoned players making betting declarations which belie their "seasoned" status. "I never box my exactas"...and, "I never bet more than one horse to win in the race", they proudly declare...as if preserving the ROI is a more important consideration than taking home the money.

The racetrack serves a varied menu...and things are getting tougher for the horseplayer. We should all expand our horizons and realize that the word "never" cannot be used with confidence in this game. Every race is unique...and every decision is situational. Most players do not employ enough variety in their betting. It's folly to try to fit the race at hand to a particular betting strategy. It works much better if we fit the betting strategy to the race.

[Rex Phinney]

I've used this strategy the lest two breeders cups and done much better than previous years.

I'll add that you must have a mindset that is ok to lose more money than usual on a race as well. There is always some races where you pick 4 horses and none hit the board, just move on and know the next race the $$$ will be big enough to make this strategy worth while.

[jk3521]

Betting HOW much per horse?

Not quite what the poster said , I get $324 bet and a return of $352 on a $2 bet for the two days total. The $99 profit was second day only.The first day had no prices, so it brought the average down.

[iceknight]

Nice discussion Mike! Congrats on your guts and your hits!!

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd like to make one more comment. My horses listed above and in the thread I linked to...they are listed in order of highest value to lowest value (left to right). You will note, every single winner was the highest value horse...not that this will happen every time, but it's kind of magical how it worked out on this one day.

I could have saved myself a lot of money... :lol:

[pandy]

I agree that in wide open races, you can bet or box your contenders that are good value, or longshots. This strategy works well at any track that has competitive races and a lot of longshot winners. In harness racing, you can do this at the Meadowlands, if you have a good eye for the contenders.

But, at many tracks on regular weekday cards, it can be tough because the fields aren't as competitive.

[goatchaser]

Curiosity Makes me ask. Did this so called speed bias have anything to do to with your picks?

I don't believe did.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not one bit...which is interesting, because prior to Saturday, I had fiddled around with emphasizing either the early or late numbers based on what I perceive might be going on...

But with the rain that was forecast for Santa Anita, and really not knowing one way or another what they might do to the track, I decided to simply handicap without taking into account any sort of bias...although that's not to say that a horse with a clear early or late pace advantage wasn't going to get the benefit of that advantage in my analysis, as was the case with the Lukas filly bomb...

[Exotic1]

I'd like to make one more comment. My horses listed above and in the thread I linked to...they are listed in order of highest value to lowest value (left to right). You will note, every single winner was the highest value horse...not that this will happen every time, but it's kind of magical how it worked out on this one day.

I could have saved myself a lot of money... :lol:

Or select the contenders you would bet and bet the total amount on the single highest value (that's not something I do). In this case it would have worked but you could have gone a long way between drinks.

Anyway, good picking and good betting.

[Robert Fischer]

Race 4-| $125.40 | :6: :12: :5:
Race 5--| $13.00 | :4: :6: :1: :2:
Race 6----| $0.00 | :3: :8:
Race 7----| $0.00 | :1: :11: :13: :8: :4:
Race 8----| $0.00 | :11:
Race 9----| $0.00 | :4: :11:
Race10--| $40.20 | :13: :1: :12: :5:
Race11--| $62.00 | :14: :9: :3:
Race12----| $0.00 | :3: :12: :8: :5:

Total Wagered ($2 base): $56
Total Returned ($2 base): $240.60
P/L: +$184.60
ROI: +329%

Great day. You adapted to the "big day" as well as anyone.

Reminded me of a Melbourne cup play I made last year where I actually boxed 7 horses. Sounds like a sin until the field size is 24 horses, and I liked some prices as much as the favorites.

Your pick on Take Charge Brandi in the Juvenile Fillies was just awesome though.
My Saturday longshot arrives early...BC Juv Filly...Lukas trainee...

:6: Take Charge Brandi
$125.40 wire-wire winner.

Well done.

[cj]

I'm conflicted, very happy for Mike but distraught he used TimeformUS better than I did!

[Nets]

Not one bit...which is interesting, because prior to Saturday, I had fiddled around with emphasizing either the early or late numbers based on what I perceive might be going on...

But with the rain that was forecast for Santa Anita, and really not knowing one way or another what they might do to the track, I decided to simply handicap without taking into account any sort of bias...although that's not to say that a horse with a clear early or late pace advantage wasn't going to get the benefit of that advantage in my analysis, as was the case with the Lukas filly bomb...

First, congratulations on an impressive display of handicapping! Second, was just wondering about your odds lines. It's an area that I am NOT very proficient. Do you have your own system/program that determines the odds or do you use someone else's? I am NOT asking for formulas or inside info, just wondered as it seemed you were really accurate in many cases. You have probably discussed this before, but, quite honestly, I'm too lazy to check. At any rate, that was quite a performance!

[Tape Reader]

Congratulations Boss. Nice job.

[Grits]

Pace Advantage wrote:The way I used to the TimeFormUS figures, that horse ended up as my second choice overall...the horse did have a substantial pace advantage...that's what got her to number 2 on my list. Thanks to TimeForm.

Like you, I used the figures. But unlike you, I don't have the ability to make an odds line which I'm OK with. At a glance, this is the two days results on the (2 page) condensed figures offered for BC by TFUS.

CSP: highest early speed figure IF (in field)
LSP: highest late speed figure IF
4R: highest performance figure IF on today's surface, excluding 90 day L/Os. When tied, long price horse is 4R.

FRIDAY

Race 6. Juvenile Turf
:5: CSP--4R -- $14.00 -- Hootenanny

Race 7. Dirt Mile
:1: CSP--4R -- $3.40 -- Goldencents
:9: LSP (tied) -- $3.80 -- $1.exacta $7.10

Race 8. Juvenile Fillies Turf -- OUT

Race 9. Distaff -- OUT

SATURDAY

Race 4. Juvenile Fillies
:6: CSP--4R -- (tied) $125.40 -- Take Charge Brandi
:11: LSP -- $7.20 -- $1.exacta $778. -- Top Decile

Race 5. Filly & Mare Turf
:4: CSP -- $13.00 -- Dayatthespa

Race 6. Filly & Mare Sprint
:7: 4R -- $8.20 -- Judy The Beauty
:8: LSP -- $16.40 -- $1.exacta $68. -- Better Lucky

Race 7. Turf Sprint -- OUT

Race 8. Juvenile
:7: LSP--4R -- $29.80 -- Texas Red
:9: CSP (tied) -- $3.80 -- $1.exacta $50.30 -- Carpe Diem

Race 9. Turf
:12: LSP -- $14.40 -- Main Sequence
:7: 4R -- $4.80 -- $1.exacta $32.40 -- Flintshire

Race 10. Sprint -- OUT
:13:
:4:

Race 11. Turf Mile -- OUT
:14:
:9:

Race 12. Classic
:7: CSP--4R -- $14.20 -- Bayern

This was a good day for you, PA, and a good Breeders' Cup for TFUS/Craig. There were some great win and place prices to be found in these 2 pages a day. ... Less is more. ;)

(I apologize in advance for any errors.)

[PaceAdvantage]

First, congratulations on an impressive display of handicapping! Second, was just wondering about your odds lines. It's an area that I am NOT very proficient. Do you have your own system/program that determines the odds or do you use someone else's? I am NOT asking for formulas or inside info, just wondered as it seemed you were really accurate in many cases. You have probably discussed this before, but, quite honestly, I'm too lazy to check. At any rate, that was quite a performance!I actually use a modified excel spreadsheet of a version cj created that enables you to create an oddsline basically from any set of numbers...I will check later and see if I have a copy of the original and post it here if I do...

[JJMartin]

Big days = the largest pools, keeping odds value a lot more stable nearing pt + increased uncertainty, due to a high level of competition and possibly in part due to non-handicapper action contributing. So yes, this is not a "normal" day. If they ever allowed over-seas money into north american pools, every day could be a big day.

[JustRalph]

How much more did you spread than on a normal day

[Nets]

I actually use a modified excel spreadsheet of a version cj created that enables you to create an oddsline basically from any set of numbers...I will check later and see if I have a copy of the original and post it here if I do...

Thanks PA

[rastajenk]

I'm conflicted, very happy for Mike but distraught he used TimeformUS better than I did!
If it makes you feel any better, that's something else you have in common with Andy Beyer. :cool:

[cj]

If it makes you feel any better, that's something else you have in common with Andy Beyer. :cool:

I didn't say I bombed! :)

[raybo]

Dang! I just saw this link in another thread, completely missed it.

Nice job PA!! The "machismo" thing, IMO, is right on. How many times have we heard that betting more than a horse or two means you either lack confidence, or you don't know what you're doing? I'm glad you posted this, and really had no idea that this type of play was in your repertoire.

Anyone who has ever read any of my posts regarding win/exacta play, knows that multiple horses is standard for me and my program. I have never found a combination of factors/grading system that points towards win probability and value well enough to trust as a betting/value line. Creating a line is simple, but finding a grading system that works well, is not. So, I/we don't use an odds line, rather we use a minimum odds requirement. Still, the point is to get enough value to cover the losses and costs that you inevitably will have.

I played only 4 races this weekend, none on Friday. I played the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 12th on Saturday, hitting the winners in all but the 9th, up to 3 contenders per race. Of course, all the winners were double digit payouts.

I did not spend much time on the BC this year, and structured no superfecta tickets at all (very unusual for me, just didn't have the time to do it right this year).

So, PA, I'm glad you pointed out multiple win horse betting on the big days, it is almost always a profitable approach. It can also be a profitable approach on normal days too, if done right. I, like you, don't care one bit what others think about the approach, let the money do the talking! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[MNslappy]

I actually use a modified excel spreadsheet of a version cj created that enables you to create an oddsline basically from any set of numbers...I will check later and see if I have a copy of the original and post it here if I do...

Is it this one?

[raybo]

Is it this one?

I downloaded that and ran the macro but no odds were produced. I looked at the macro and it is just a counter, no calculations in it. Is something missing?

Or, must you enter something in the "Fixed %" column? If so, what do you enter there? I see no formulas in the program except the "Total" of the weightings, and "Fixed %" which is the sum of the "Fixed %" column (which is mentioned above). With only a counter running I see no way that the "Fair Odds" and "Bet Odds" could be produced.

It appears that, either there is a macro that is not accessable, or there are formulas somewhere else, or something is missing from the program. It simply counts from 1 to 1000 and that's it.

[raybo]

Oh, I see, there are several hidden columns. After unhiding those columns, there are "#Ref" errors in column "H", Don't know what cells those formulas are referencing, and I assume that is the reason the odds columns are not being populated.

[biggestal99]

The just bet every horse that is 10-1 or better in the bc has been profitable well forever.

Worked once again this bc.

Allan

[dkithore]

Excellent thread. THANKS PA and Thask

[pandy]

I think I'll do my drf harness column on a similar subject this week, that is, can you win without actually picking the winner just by betting contenders that are going off at overlaid prices? Is there an odds cut off (6-1 or higher, for instance)

I welcome opinions on how many horses can one bet in a race and still have a chance to show a profit?