Kentucky Derby 2015 Early Favorite?

[iceknight]

So does Texas Red now get anointed as the early fav for Derby 2015?

Or would it still be American Pharaoh as he has a win against him?

[Smarty Cide]

I love that we start to get to talk Kentucky Derby 141. as for American Pharaoh at this point hes this years Cairo Prince, Old Fashioned, Square Eddie... etc There is always that way too early favorite that never pans out. But hey ya never know...

[nads1420]

I love that we start to get to talk Kentucky Derby 141. as for American Pharaoh at this point hes this years Cairo Prince, Old Fashioned, Square Eddie... etc There is always that way too early favorite that never pans out. But hey ya never know...

Panning out so far

[horses4courses]

Right now, the 5 horses that head the betting are as follows:

(1) American Pharoah - somewhere around 5-1

(2) Dortmund 7-1

(3) Carpe Diem 12-1

(4) Firing Line 15-1

(5) Upstart 20-1

Not attractive odds on any of those contenders, imo.
Remember, too, that if your horse scratches, you lose.

Better off waiting until race day, unless one happens
to demolish the field in one of the big preps ahead.
Then the money most likely piles on before the Derby.

I have $30 on a sleeper @ 100-1.
If he steps up next time out, I will update. ;)

[davew]

pool 4 opens tomorrow and open through Sunday 6 pm.

[SecretAgentMan]

Right now, the 5 horses that head the betting are as follows:

(1) American Pharoah - somewhere around 5-1

(2) Dortmund 7-1

(3) Carpe Diem 12-1

(4) Firing Line 15-1

(5) Upstart 20-1

Not attractive odds on any of those contenders, imo.
Remember, too, that if your horse scratches, you lose.

Better off waiting until race day, unless one happens
to demolish the field in one of the big preps ahead.
Then the money most likely piles on before the Derby.

I have $30 on a sleeper @ 100-1.
If he steps up next time out, I will update. ;)


Best bet is to wait for derby day.....I remember Funny Cide was 99-1 in pool 1 I believe. If you play a long shot early, big difference, but not much difference for pool 4.......Upstart at 20-1 isn't bad, but if he gets hurt, you're screwed, so these pools are mostly money burners IMO.......

[lamboguy]

the final price of the pool is decided by pari mutuel betting. what happens to the money on the horses that don't start in the race? is it added on to the horses that remain? or does it disappear into the sky?

[davew]

the final price of the pool is decided by pari mutuel betting. what happens to the money on the horses that don't start in the race? is it added on to the horses that remain? or does it disappear into the sky?


As long as the named entrant is still in the pool at end of betting, they are considered a starter at pool closing. They have every possibility because they include a 'field' for all others not listed. The will-pays are known at end of pool. Non-starters are already factored into the pay-offs, just their probability of winning goes to zero (barring some strange happening where the race is considered no contest and all bets refunded). All losing vets are already figured into winning bet because it is parimutual.

To even have this bet, they probably had to have it approved by the state racing commission and all contingencies covered.