Poindexter
11-01-2014, 03:13 PM
No carryover tonight in the late pick 4 but there is one in the 10 cent Super High 5 of $9600. As usual, free past performances at ustrotting.com. Good luck tonight.
Race 10
Must use 2-3-6(top choice 3)
2- Odds on Rhodonite-have no idea where the morning line of 12-1 came from(not that the morning line for this track means anything). In August this guy was rock solid at this level, last winning 8/23 at 7/5. Since then he has been outclassed. Whether he still fits at this level remains to be seen. The figure I give him for the 10/11 Balmoral race makes him a fit.
3-HeadsupYankee-Been facing better on other circuits and earned a figure in his last that would make short work of this field. Once again the 12-1 morning line is ridiculous. That being said, chasing faster horses around the track is not the same as earning a figure while competing. Could be best in here. His best work at Aces seems to be when he leaves, so pretty sure he will leave today and at worst, sit a 2 hole trip behind Washington Hanover. Have to think he is the horse to beat in here.
6-Wildcat Bobbie-I always like this guy. He often runs his eyeballs out, usually gets a rough 1st over trip, never get proper respect at the windows and of course a day when I didn’t play the races(last Sunday), he finally gets some good cover and rewards his backers handsomely. Steps up in class but as mentioned (under the next horse) the lower level has been much stronger of late. Also note that he was able to close 2nd over into a fast 55.3 last ½. Has a big shot again.
Should use 1-4-5-7
1-Old man River-up in class after losing 3 straight at the lower level. Also he does seem to have the weakest figures in the field. However, the lower class level over the last month or so has been quite strong as the horses this guy is losing to are stepping up in class and winning(fiveknuckleshuffle and Rocket Rumble).
4-Washington Hanover. This is his class level. A lot of recent races he has been overmatched. This guy needs the lead for his best work and I assume that along with the 3 he will be sent hard in here. There does not appear to be speed outside of him. If he can make the lead without being used too hard and sets modest fractions he has a shot in here, if he goes too fast or is used too hard early he will not last.
5-Smoke Rings-Actually earned a huge figure in last(by his standards) but perhaps misleading. He rail rode and the way the race set up, the only horses with a chance were the rail riders. The winner was tons best, came 1st over and cruised –the 2nd over gapped badly and killed the outer flow and this guy outclosed 3 horses that were used in in a 27.2 1st quarter. That being said he earned a very solid figure for this level and came home is 27.1.
7-Life is Good Today-This guy earned a huge figure 9/27 and then paced an amazing mile 10/4 when parked the mile from the 10 hole. Since then he has been a disappointment. On October 11th and October 18t he got a 2nd over trip and was unable to close. Last race just draw a line through as he was on that outer flow that was gapped out of the race. From the 7 hole he has his work cut out and he has to race better, but not ready to toss him just yet.
Race 11) Going to take a shot and single Wings in here.
#3 Wings-She has been racing really well since arriving at Balmoral. Been able to stay at this level, due to winning less than $30,000 lifetime(a condition that hopefully will be over tonight). The lone disappointing effort was 10/18 where she was life and death to hang on in a race I thought she was a standout. She had missed a week prior to that race and perhaps that was the reason why. Came back last week, drew the 9 post. She was parked the first turn 4/3 wide before clearing in a fast 27.2 1st quarter. That hard use took its toll and was unable to keep up with DP Angel who ran huge, but she was about 4 clear of the same two horses she struggled against the week before.
Taking a shot against Love this Place who has been a huge money burner of late and missed a week and Ryleighs Lily who is racing well but is stuck in the 10 hole and doesn’t appear to have the early speed to leave in here.
12th Race
Must use 3-10(top choice 3)
3-Aces Again-with the exception of the 10/12 race in the slop this guy has been pocket Aces since arriving to Balmoral. While a beaten favorite in last, he had his work cut out, trying to close from 6 lengths back in a 56 second last half. Was a gallant try coming up a little short. Drawn back inside, perhaps can use similar tactics as the 10/19 race where he made a nice quarter brush to the top and dominated. Clearly the horse to beat.
10-Odds on Serpens. Put on the brakes 2nd quarter last week after getting away with making the top in a fairly modest 1st quarter, which gave him a huge edge on Aces Again. Have to like the 56 second last ½ do not like the fact he is in the 10 hole. Likely to be much harder used early tonight and may not even see the top(the 1-2-6-8 all can possibly leave in here and he may be looking for an early seat).
Should use 1-4-7
1-Put to the Test-this guy is very interesting. Barn has struck with 2 horses in the last week who improved quite a bit. See Pretty Place in the 11th and they also scored with Wild Berry Muffler on Wednesday. They took over this horse 2 back and he lost all chance as he was gapped out of the race. Still closed nicely to beat everyone in that gapped out group. Last race was shuffled and angled out pretty far top of the lane and still managed to come home in 27 flat. Drawn on the rail, I look for him to leave sit a trip or even try to go wire to wire. Has some races back in August that make him a contender. With the sharp barn, he has a big look.
4-Lifetime Matjic-Ran big on 9/21 albeit in an overpaced race. Failed to duplicate that effort on 10/4. However swithed barns to a barn that is winning at a 26% clip. Was scratched sick 10/12 so that is a concern.
7) Always Jimmy Ray-Not a big fan of closers from the 7 hole as they are at the mercy of the pace. Earned nice figures 10/15 and 10/18 and last race sat a 3 hole trip and wasn’t driven out as he ran out of room, so we do not know whether he could have done better. Can come home in 27 flat(but so can Aces Again who likely will have a jump on him) which makes him a danger, especially if there is some unexpected pace activity early on.
Could Use 2-9
2) Native Lights-This guy has seen better days. Last sat a 2 hole trip in a slow paced race and went backwards. Race before that lost at Maywood at 1/5.
9) Nancys Skyscape-Regressed in last I think. On one hand he was 1st over into a 56 second last ½ and did make up ground, so it is hard to say he raced poorly, but on a slow paced race you want to be close to to the lead, which he eventually was, but was unable to sustain. One can also argue that he was 1st over to a fresh leader, which worked to his disadvantage. But even if you want to forgive the last, he is a closer stuck in the 9 hole.
Race 13
Must use 2-6-7(top choice 2)
2-Majestic Royale-When he is good this is a pretty nice horse for the level. After putting in a big effort on 9/27 this horse changed barns. On 10/4 was put in the hands of a provisional driver and that turned out to be a disaster. Then came back at Maywood 10/16 and closed from the 7 hole. This horse has no chance with that style. Came back 10/24 and he was driven aggressively. Unfortunately he was 1st over(had some cover for a brief period between the ¼ and half) and was parked 3 turns. Factor in the ground loss and this horse earned a rock solid figure. Drawn inside he has the ability to let the front runners duel early and then quarter move and control the pace. I think he is the horse to beat.
6-Become Legendary-Fairly steady sort and very versatile, can leave or duck with equal effectiveness. Has been racing well in 5000 claimers at Lexington and 6000 claimer at Hoosier, which should make him a solid fit here. Raced well way back on July 6th at Balmoral winning at this level. This horse has 6 out of 22 wins this year which is pretty spectacular for this level. Also have to like his last race. Used hard 3 wd 1st turn to clear by the 1/8 in route to a 27.2 first ¼. Got pushed hard and put away by an impressive winner, and was nailed late for the place. That is an effort that certainly gives him a big look in here.
7) Metro Lad.-This guy was clearly a better horse than these this summer. July 12th just missed to Timewell in an 8 claimer. Was given some time off, took a class drop and showed strong speed for a ½ and faltered lane. Was used a bit 3 wide 1st turn before clearing at the ¼ pole. That was his first race in 2 months. Should be much sharper today and has a big shot at this level.
Should use (9-10)
9-Once a Cheater-close call betweens should use and could use for this guy. He is decent. Thought he had a fairly good trip in last going 1st over to a tired Metro Lad. Now goes from the 3 hole to the 9 hole. Cant see him leaving for the top, but perhaps Leonard can find a seat. Needs a trip to get there.
10-Star of the Game-A past classer who has now settling at this lower level claiming spot. Caught a rough trip last out when stuck behind dead piece Look Ma no hands, got gapped out of the race had to circle 3 wide and was essentially 3 wide entire far turn and still managed to come home in 28 seconds flat. Closer in the 10 hole has his work cut out, but he should be a solid fit at this level.
Could Use(1-3)
1-Funny Guy-hard to gauge this guy. Trackmaster certainly gives him competitive figures for this level. It is his first race out in 6 weeks for a low profile barn(0 for 26). Certainly adds intrigue to the Super High 5.
3-Five Cougars-looks like you can probably ignore his last 3 races as he has just been too far out of it at Maywood the last 2 and was parked the mile prior to that. He was fairly competitive at this level at Maywood, which for whatever reasons seems to be a little cheaper than this track. By the way my apologies to Bobby Smolin. He drives fine. He must have had a rough couple of weeks when I first started betting at Balmoral. He will probably fare better if he can get some kind of early position and rail ride. Don’t think he can beat these guys first over(which is a possible trip in here).
For those of you playing the Super high 5 carryover-I cannot see the 4 or 5 or 8 winning, but certainly can see the 4 or 5 sneaking into 5th, or even 4th. Cannot see the 8 horse even getting 5th, but stranger things have happened.
Race 10
Must use 2-3-6(top choice 3)
2- Odds on Rhodonite-have no idea where the morning line of 12-1 came from(not that the morning line for this track means anything). In August this guy was rock solid at this level, last winning 8/23 at 7/5. Since then he has been outclassed. Whether he still fits at this level remains to be seen. The figure I give him for the 10/11 Balmoral race makes him a fit.
3-HeadsupYankee-Been facing better on other circuits and earned a figure in his last that would make short work of this field. Once again the 12-1 morning line is ridiculous. That being said, chasing faster horses around the track is not the same as earning a figure while competing. Could be best in here. His best work at Aces seems to be when he leaves, so pretty sure he will leave today and at worst, sit a 2 hole trip behind Washington Hanover. Have to think he is the horse to beat in here.
6-Wildcat Bobbie-I always like this guy. He often runs his eyeballs out, usually gets a rough 1st over trip, never get proper respect at the windows and of course a day when I didn’t play the races(last Sunday), he finally gets some good cover and rewards his backers handsomely. Steps up in class but as mentioned (under the next horse) the lower level has been much stronger of late. Also note that he was able to close 2nd over into a fast 55.3 last ½. Has a big shot again.
Should use 1-4-5-7
1-Old man River-up in class after losing 3 straight at the lower level. Also he does seem to have the weakest figures in the field. However, the lower class level over the last month or so has been quite strong as the horses this guy is losing to are stepping up in class and winning(fiveknuckleshuffle and Rocket Rumble).
4-Washington Hanover. This is his class level. A lot of recent races he has been overmatched. This guy needs the lead for his best work and I assume that along with the 3 he will be sent hard in here. There does not appear to be speed outside of him. If he can make the lead without being used too hard and sets modest fractions he has a shot in here, if he goes too fast or is used too hard early he will not last.
5-Smoke Rings-Actually earned a huge figure in last(by his standards) but perhaps misleading. He rail rode and the way the race set up, the only horses with a chance were the rail riders. The winner was tons best, came 1st over and cruised –the 2nd over gapped badly and killed the outer flow and this guy outclosed 3 horses that were used in in a 27.2 1st quarter. That being said he earned a very solid figure for this level and came home is 27.1.
7-Life is Good Today-This guy earned a huge figure 9/27 and then paced an amazing mile 10/4 when parked the mile from the 10 hole. Since then he has been a disappointment. On October 11th and October 18t he got a 2nd over trip and was unable to close. Last race just draw a line through as he was on that outer flow that was gapped out of the race. From the 7 hole he has his work cut out and he has to race better, but not ready to toss him just yet.
Race 11) Going to take a shot and single Wings in here.
#3 Wings-She has been racing really well since arriving at Balmoral. Been able to stay at this level, due to winning less than $30,000 lifetime(a condition that hopefully will be over tonight). The lone disappointing effort was 10/18 where she was life and death to hang on in a race I thought she was a standout. She had missed a week prior to that race and perhaps that was the reason why. Came back last week, drew the 9 post. She was parked the first turn 4/3 wide before clearing in a fast 27.2 1st quarter. That hard use took its toll and was unable to keep up with DP Angel who ran huge, but she was about 4 clear of the same two horses she struggled against the week before.
Taking a shot against Love this Place who has been a huge money burner of late and missed a week and Ryleighs Lily who is racing well but is stuck in the 10 hole and doesn’t appear to have the early speed to leave in here.
12th Race
Must use 3-10(top choice 3)
3-Aces Again-with the exception of the 10/12 race in the slop this guy has been pocket Aces since arriving to Balmoral. While a beaten favorite in last, he had his work cut out, trying to close from 6 lengths back in a 56 second last half. Was a gallant try coming up a little short. Drawn back inside, perhaps can use similar tactics as the 10/19 race where he made a nice quarter brush to the top and dominated. Clearly the horse to beat.
10-Odds on Serpens. Put on the brakes 2nd quarter last week after getting away with making the top in a fairly modest 1st quarter, which gave him a huge edge on Aces Again. Have to like the 56 second last ½ do not like the fact he is in the 10 hole. Likely to be much harder used early tonight and may not even see the top(the 1-2-6-8 all can possibly leave in here and he may be looking for an early seat).
Should use 1-4-7
1-Put to the Test-this guy is very interesting. Barn has struck with 2 horses in the last week who improved quite a bit. See Pretty Place in the 11th and they also scored with Wild Berry Muffler on Wednesday. They took over this horse 2 back and he lost all chance as he was gapped out of the race. Still closed nicely to beat everyone in that gapped out group. Last race was shuffled and angled out pretty far top of the lane and still managed to come home in 27 flat. Drawn on the rail, I look for him to leave sit a trip or even try to go wire to wire. Has some races back in August that make him a contender. With the sharp barn, he has a big look.
4-Lifetime Matjic-Ran big on 9/21 albeit in an overpaced race. Failed to duplicate that effort on 10/4. However swithed barns to a barn that is winning at a 26% clip. Was scratched sick 10/12 so that is a concern.
7) Always Jimmy Ray-Not a big fan of closers from the 7 hole as they are at the mercy of the pace. Earned nice figures 10/15 and 10/18 and last race sat a 3 hole trip and wasn’t driven out as he ran out of room, so we do not know whether he could have done better. Can come home in 27 flat(but so can Aces Again who likely will have a jump on him) which makes him a danger, especially if there is some unexpected pace activity early on.
Could Use 2-9
2) Native Lights-This guy has seen better days. Last sat a 2 hole trip in a slow paced race and went backwards. Race before that lost at Maywood at 1/5.
9) Nancys Skyscape-Regressed in last I think. On one hand he was 1st over into a 56 second last ½ and did make up ground, so it is hard to say he raced poorly, but on a slow paced race you want to be close to to the lead, which he eventually was, but was unable to sustain. One can also argue that he was 1st over to a fresh leader, which worked to his disadvantage. But even if you want to forgive the last, he is a closer stuck in the 9 hole.
Race 13
Must use 2-6-7(top choice 2)
2-Majestic Royale-When he is good this is a pretty nice horse for the level. After putting in a big effort on 9/27 this horse changed barns. On 10/4 was put in the hands of a provisional driver and that turned out to be a disaster. Then came back at Maywood 10/16 and closed from the 7 hole. This horse has no chance with that style. Came back 10/24 and he was driven aggressively. Unfortunately he was 1st over(had some cover for a brief period between the ¼ and half) and was parked 3 turns. Factor in the ground loss and this horse earned a rock solid figure. Drawn inside he has the ability to let the front runners duel early and then quarter move and control the pace. I think he is the horse to beat.
6-Become Legendary-Fairly steady sort and very versatile, can leave or duck with equal effectiveness. Has been racing well in 5000 claimers at Lexington and 6000 claimer at Hoosier, which should make him a solid fit here. Raced well way back on July 6th at Balmoral winning at this level. This horse has 6 out of 22 wins this year which is pretty spectacular for this level. Also have to like his last race. Used hard 3 wd 1st turn to clear by the 1/8 in route to a 27.2 first ¼. Got pushed hard and put away by an impressive winner, and was nailed late for the place. That is an effort that certainly gives him a big look in here.
7) Metro Lad.-This guy was clearly a better horse than these this summer. July 12th just missed to Timewell in an 8 claimer. Was given some time off, took a class drop and showed strong speed for a ½ and faltered lane. Was used a bit 3 wide 1st turn before clearing at the ¼ pole. That was his first race in 2 months. Should be much sharper today and has a big shot at this level.
Should use (9-10)
9-Once a Cheater-close call betweens should use and could use for this guy. He is decent. Thought he had a fairly good trip in last going 1st over to a tired Metro Lad. Now goes from the 3 hole to the 9 hole. Cant see him leaving for the top, but perhaps Leonard can find a seat. Needs a trip to get there.
10-Star of the Game-A past classer who has now settling at this lower level claiming spot. Caught a rough trip last out when stuck behind dead piece Look Ma no hands, got gapped out of the race had to circle 3 wide and was essentially 3 wide entire far turn and still managed to come home in 28 seconds flat. Closer in the 10 hole has his work cut out, but he should be a solid fit at this level.
Could Use(1-3)
1-Funny Guy-hard to gauge this guy. Trackmaster certainly gives him competitive figures for this level. It is his first race out in 6 weeks for a low profile barn(0 for 26). Certainly adds intrigue to the Super High 5.
3-Five Cougars-looks like you can probably ignore his last 3 races as he has just been too far out of it at Maywood the last 2 and was parked the mile prior to that. He was fairly competitive at this level at Maywood, which for whatever reasons seems to be a little cheaper than this track. By the way my apologies to Bobby Smolin. He drives fine. He must have had a rough couple of weeks when I first started betting at Balmoral. He will probably fare better if he can get some kind of early position and rail ride. Don’t think he can beat these guys first over(which is a possible trip in here).
For those of you playing the Super high 5 carryover-I cannot see the 4 or 5 or 8 winning, but certainly can see the 4 or 5 sneaking into 5th, or even 4th. Cannot see the 8 horse even getting 5th, but stranger things have happened.