Weak Preakness

[DeoVolente]

Are we looking at another weak Preakness? Will Smarty Jones actually run in the race? It would be unamerican not to run in the second leg of the triple crown!

Smarty Jones hass already scared the field down
to about 7. A horse or 2 will jump in late, they always do, but they
will be grasping at straws as usual.

Mulhall is not sending either of her horses (Imperialism or Cheiron)
because she thinks he can't be beat. Dickinson is talking about
waiting for the Belmont with Tapit. Read The Footnotes has mucus
in his lungs. The list goes on....

Actually, only Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge, and Borrego are definites
to come from the Derby. Limehouse will run *IF* Smarty or Lion
Heart don't.

Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, and Water Cannon are the only horses
who didn't run in the Derby who are confirmed starters. If Eddington
couldn't beat Tapit or Master David, how can he be expected to
beat Smarty Jones? Rock Hard Ten is a B I G horse. Those tight
turns at PIM will not be to his liking, but he's talented enough to be a
threat maybe - though he is awful light on experience, and coming
in off a 6 week layoff is NOT a good thing. Water Cannon is not
anywhere near to being another Magic Weisner. His entering the
race is a joke, and I just hope the horse comes out of it OK.

And people just plain don't like coming to run at Pimlico. You think
the grandstand is bad.... OMG, you should see the BARNS.
There's no dorm for their help either. Storage is at a premium- I've
got pics of horses walking the shed row to cool out and in the
background are stacks and stacks of feed bags that they had no
place to put. Chests with grooming gear and bandages sit outside
nearly every stall. And you know there are no really close hotels.
Also the help can't walk outside the complex to get something to eat
- it's not safe. The grooms who live there stopped walking out about
5-6 years ago. I think the chicken place went out of business
because of it. Well, it DID go out of business, I just suspect that's
the reason.

The Preakness will actually be considerably easier.

Someone in MD did suggest this thought: the only thing that
*MIGHT* save Pimlico would be a Triple Crown winner. Grasping at
straws? Or would the powers that be rethink because of a return to
glory? Not that I think Smarty Jones can get a mile and a half mind
you.

Belmont's where Imperialism, Tapit, or Rock Hard Ten will run him
down. At this point I'd pick Imperialism to win the Belmont - I just
hope Mulhall will run him!

[Valuist]

So many trainers have been conditioned about the "bounce" that they are just too scared to come back in 2 weeks. Its really ridiculous; not to take anything away from Smarty, who was the best horse last Saturday but it was a sloppy track. If I'm an owner of a horse like Imperialism or The Cliffs Edge, why would you not go to Pim? These owners see horses making up ground in the Derby and assume they are "Belmont horses" when in fact tractable speed is usually deadly in the Belmont.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I think the Preakness will be competitive, but Smarty could win the Preakness and not run in the Belmont. That is what I would do.

[cj]

Barring injury, there is ZERO chance of Smarty skipping the Belmont after a Preakness victory.

[JPinMaryland]

I agree w/ Valuist, why not take a shot w/ Imperialism or Cliff? Those horses aren't as bad as the actual beaten lengths.

Looking at the tape again, a lot of ground was lost on the second turn, a lot. Those guys just behind Lion H and Smarty were like what a length and a half back at the turn? After the turn they were back more like 6 or so. The slop at that end must have resulted in them checking up.

[Observer]

Originally posted by kenwoodallpromos
I think the Preakness will be competitive, but Smarty could win the Preakness and not run in the Belmont. That is what I would do.

Forget that the Triple Crown is the Triple Crown .. but if Smarty Jones wins the Preakness, he would go to Belmont with the opportunity to win another $5-MILLION bonus!!! That's HUGE!!

Besides, this horse keeps proving his nay-sayers wrong. "They" said he would not get the 1 1/4-miles. Now it's that he won't get the 1 1/2-miles. Whatever. This horse has a running style that is perfectly suited to the Belmont Stakes. He is not a need-the-lead type, but rather one that is comfortable with stalking just behind the pace if needed. He can relax while chasing speed, and he has the spurt when needed to get a jump on closers who tend to leave too much to do, as in the case of Imperialism. The added distance does not equal getting to the wire in time.

Check out http://www.teamsmartyjones.com for replays of some of his races.

But definitely, if Smarty Jones wins the Preakness and is healthy, there is no good reason to skip the Belmont, especially when you have a horse that keeps doing what "they" say he isn't supposed to be able to do!!
:rolleyes:

[Observer]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
... Those guys just behind Lion H and Smarty were like what a length and a half back at the turn? After the turn they were back more like 6 or so. The slop at that end must have resulted in them checking up.

No way Imperialism was just a length and a half back of Lion Heart and Smarty Jones when they turned for home. Because if that were true, then Imperialism would have run down both Lion Heart and Smarty Jones with that furious rally he turned in going down the Churchill stretch. Yes, I will agree that he lost a ton of ground turning into the lane, but on the far turn, he was never within two lengths of the leaders.

[DeoVolente]

No, it isn't so much that the trainers are concerned about thatr damned bounce theory is only an excuse to most of these
guys. It's really a game of economics. Every loss detracts from a
horse's stud value. So they try to minimize those potential loses.
Hence the lack of prep races for major stakes. Things like
Mineshaft skipping the BC, horses trying to come off a 7 week
layoff, etc. are likely to become more prevelent unless something
gets ahold of the skyrocketing breeding industry and slows it down
AND at the same time rasies purses dramatically. And the raise in
purses isn't coming unless there's a new influx of money, such as
slots. But even then there will be only so much to go around. The
truth is, painful tho it will be, we need to cut the number of tracks
and horse about in half.

[Bubbles]

Just for the record, if Smarty wins the Preakness and Belmont, he's your new all-time leading money winner with over eleven million dollars. Bonuses are counted, like it or not. Imagine: A PA-bred with only nine starts in his career can hold the all-time money record. Who wouldah thunk it? :) :D ;)

[alysheba88]

Actually thats not correct Bubbles. Or at least I dont think it is. I cant answer for the TC bonus but know I read that the Oaklawn bonus does NOT count towards earnings in regard to career numbers.

[JustRalph]

TVG says the bonus counts..............and I think it did with War Emblem too........

[JPinMaryland]

NO I didnt say Imperialism was 1 1/2 lengths back. As I pointed out in another thread he was in approx. 11th place when he made the turn.

I was referring to the horses right behind the two leaders. I think Pollards Vision was still up there and maybe another one of that original gang of 4 that went w/ Smarty around turn one, Quenton's, Minister Eric, etc. The rest of the horses were just behind them.

The only pt. is that the gap between 2nd place adn 3rd place opend up huge right after the turn. I dunno if that's typical of CD or what. Just noticed it on the tape. Those horses like Pollard's etc. were falling back at that pt and of course the other horses were checking up, sliding around, etc.

[Valuist]

In order to dodge races for fear of dropping stud value, you have to have a high value to begin with. Other than Smarty, who in the potential field has proven enough to warrant a big stud fee?? Certainly not a horse like Imperialism; The Cliffs Edge may have won the Blue Grass but big deal; look at every major stallion in Kentucky; chances are most are either Gr 1 or Gr 2 winners. With Imperialism, we're not talking about Secretariat or even Devils Bag, who truly did duck races out of fear for hurting his stud value. I can't buy that excuse for any of the horses not going to this years Preakness.

[JPinMaryland]

Just to add those comments; where is the prestige value in the Preakness, per se, it just isnt there any more is it? For Smarty JOnes, yes, winning the TC would be great so there an upside for him but for the rest? For the rest of the horses saving wear/tear and winning the Bemont or a strong placing would mean much more to stud value than Pimlico, I would think.

SOmewhere else was posted the Beyer article on this. Why doesnt Beyer just admit that Pimlico is a dump, the track is passable, barely, and this race just isnt the same prestige value as the derby or Belmont? Or is Beyer just shiling for MD racing?

On a slightly different subject: what are the chances that Pennsylvania will get slots? Any chance on moving the 2nd leg of the TC to PA?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I think it is a cultural thing to think something in the past was better. The difference as time progresses with improvements in feed, training, medicine makes each year's crops and races better.
Moving- just make the 2nd leg 1 1/4 on the turf.