View Full Version : Downhill Turf Course
Matt Bryan
10-31-2014, 08:10 PM
So, what's the scoop on the Downhill Turf Course? Does it favor early speed, moreso than a 'level' turf course....or what?
So, what's the scoop on the Downhill Turf Course? Does it favor early speed, moreso than a 'level' turf course....or what?
No, not really...like any course it can at times but generally leading it tough. Outside posts have an edge too.
Clocker
10-31-2014, 08:37 PM
Crossing over the main dirt track at the bottom of the hill can also spook 1st timers. All else being equal, give the edge to horses that have at least run that course before. Even better if they made a good showing.
Stillriledup
10-31-2014, 08:40 PM
Outside posts are really "inside posts" for the first quarter of mile. Best type of horse to play at this place is a pace presser from a far outside post at a big price.
Matt Bryan
10-31-2014, 08:43 PM
Good to know all. Thanks!
Augenj
10-31-2014, 08:49 PM
Crossing over the main dirt track at the bottom of the hill can also spook 1st timers. All else being equal, give the edge to horses that have at least run that course before. Even better if they made a good showing.
A few years ago, I had a horse in the lead near the rail approaching the dirt crossing. I couldn't believe my eyes as he squatted down in mid-stride and tried to leap over the dirt. He lost of course. :ThmbDown:
Clocker
10-31-2014, 09:01 PM
A few years ago, I had a horse in the lead near the rail approaching the dirt crossing. I couldn't believe my eyes as he squatted down in mid-stride and tried to leap over the dirt. He lost of course. :ThmbDown:
Don't bet a horse without blinkers and a shadow roll! :p
I never bet anything on the downhill course unless it has run over it before. I don't like anything coming off short turf sprints, and cut backs from a mile, mile and a sixteenth are on my radar. Jockey records at the distance are good to look at, too. Not a lot of riders do well at first.
Greyfox
10-31-2014, 10:38 PM
It's downhill, with a right hand turn, a left hand turn, and across dirt back on to grass.
What's so tricky about that for first timers on that course? :D
Put a wacky horse on a wacky track and you end with a good trip! :lol:
Actually, the 6.5 turf is about all I play at SA. I don't like much about the track at all, but that one niche can be worth looking at.
Greyfox
10-31-2014, 10:44 PM
P.S.
Don't discount European invaders who are first timers on that hill.
Some have raced over hilly courses with right hand turns.
ReplayRandall
10-31-2014, 11:02 PM
I never bet anything on the downhill course unless it has run over it before. I don't like anything coming off short turf sprints, and cut backs from a mile, mile and a sixteenth are on my radar. Jockey records at the distance are good to look at, too. Not a lot of riders do well at first.
Posted by Greyfox
Don't discount European invaders who are first timers on that hill. Some have raced over hilly courses with right hand turns.
Would you two stop giving out advice on playing SA's downhill course! You're taking away the "edge"........BTW, you're both dead-on with your posts...:ThmbUp:
Robert Fischer
11-01-2014, 10:00 AM
Most horses and jocks want no part of the 1 path when that course dips out.
So, what's the scoop on the Downhill Turf Course? Does it favor early speed, moreso than a 'level' turf course....or what?
In this particular race, you want a horse with enough early speed to secure a prominent position, and enough stamina to kick on in the last furlong. Bobby's Kitten?
Course experience is a big plus.
burnsy
11-01-2014, 11:57 AM
Tightend Touchdown :4: Not giving up on him now.... ;)
upthecreek
11-01-2014, 12:03 PM
No, not really...like any course it can at times but generally leading it tough. Outside posts have an edge too.
Not exactly true According to Brisnet posts 1-3 are winning @ 12% & posts 8+ @ 15%
Not a huge difference
Not exactly true According to Brisnet posts 1-3 are winning @ 12% & posts 8+ @ 15%
Not a huge difference
It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
ReplayRandall
11-01-2014, 12:50 PM
It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
The outside posts have a smaller sample which lends itself to the higher percentage being skewed, due to possibilities of chalkier horses running outside and winning versus hopeless outside longshots losing, or vice-versa. It always comes back to sufficient sample size, odds and ROI........
The outside posts have a smaller sample which lends itself to the higher percentage being skewed, due to possibilities of chalkier horses running outside and winning versus hopeless outside longshots losing, or vice-versa. It always comes back to sufficient sample size, odds and ROI........
Yes, which is exactly what I based my comments on...IV and ROI, plus I went back 4 years. The outside has a very clear edge over the inside, one of the bigger ones you fill find in all of racing. My comments are in the latest HANA newsletter and based on all the things you mention.
goatchaser
11-01-2014, 12:57 PM
If your a stretch runner...and positioned nicely on the rail crossing the dirt....Seems there's always a hole on the rail as leaders drift out 90% of the time crossing turf to dirt and usually anyone who shoots for the outside can be expected to be fanned very wide turning for home.. My problem is like both running styles in this race. Hmmmm...who to pick???
davew
11-01-2014, 05:31 PM
amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
One heck of a run late - I thought I was watching the new TV show The Flash!
Augenj
11-01-2014, 05:53 PM
It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
Amen to that and something a lot of handicappers don't realize. :ThmbUp:
Psychotic Parakeet
11-02-2014, 03:49 PM
amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
Caracortado is the only one I can think of in recent memory when he won the G3 Daytona Stakes:
http://youtu.be/MHykGWth_eQ
Robert Fischer
11-02-2014, 05:28 PM
amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
Visually, I thought he was out of it.
He generally races near the pace.
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