What Do You Look For to Bet in BC Races?

[Robert Goren]

I look for first time Lasix.

[classhandicapper]

When I handicap, I typically look at a horse's last few races and glance back further than that for more general information when relevant. For the BC races, it's the same process except that I also like to look at the horse's TOP race. A lot of these horses have been prepared to fire their absolute peak race this weekend. So I want to know what their best is.

[GatetoWire]

One of the most important things that everyone overlooks is the trainers or the horses record in enhanced 72 hr security races.

Over the last 3 years we have had 50 races with these protocols and there are some interesting patterns developing.

[dkithore]

These being classy races, it goes without saying I look for the class (success in grades I for instance); In addition I focus on leading contenders who won recently at today's class and Tandem horses (horses finished well with them). These non winners (say within 5 lengths or so) are serious contenders. Thus Form reversals potential check is one of the keys for me.

Best of luck

DK

[HUSKER55]

One of the most important things that everyone overlooks is the trainers or the horses record in enhanced 72 hr security races.

Over the last 3 years we have had 50 races with these protocols and there are some interesting patterns developing.


I am having one of those days so be kind.

what is an "enhanced 72 hour security race"

Thanks

[GatetoWire]

I am having one of those days so be kind.

what is an "enhanced 72 hour security race"

Thanks

Since 2012 a number of high profile races have started to employ extra security before the actual race.
For the 2012 & 2013 Breeders Cups and again this year every horse running in a Breeders Cup race has to go through extra Out of Competition drug testing and the have 24 hr a day surveillance for the last 72 hrs leading up to the race.

So right now every horse in a Breeders Cup race has a security guard following them non stop until they race. They sit outside their stall, they walk with them where ever they go. If a vet goes in to give medication it gets recorded and the vet has to give them the syringe so that they can test what medicine was given. There is a cutoff time for vets to work on the horses and on race day the only treatment that is allowed is Lasix given by a State appointed vet.

The Breeders Cup employees a whole team of equine security guards for these 4 days and it's a 1000% more strict than normal race day where there is only a sign on a horses stall saying in to race.

There have been 50 races run under this type of security (the 1st was the Belmont won by Union Rags) and I have noticed that some horses and some specific trainers horses performances in these races are not near as good as they are in normal races.

Many horses/trainers horses run very similar speed figures in these type of races to the ones that they ran in non security races, but there are several who's speed figures are much lower during these races than they are in normal races without the security.
To me this is a huge handicapping angle.

[Robert Goren]

Is there a list of these races someplace?

[Grits]

There have been 50 races run under this type of security (the 1st was the Belmont won by Union Rags) and I have noticed that some horses and some specific trainers horses performances in these races are not near as good as they are in normal races.

Many horses/trainers horses run very similar speed figures in these type of races to the ones that they ran in non security races, but there are several who's speed figures are much lower during these races than they are in normal races without the security.
To me this is a huge handicapping angle.

This may account for the peculiar tumbling (isn't that putting it nicely) from "top of the heap" for some of the high profile trainers as presented in Hana's BC Stat Report. Though, granted, they've fared well with seconditis. :lol:

When handicapping the BC races? First, 4Rules horses. Next, each horse's last three figures, along with, for longer price horses, their back figures. Also using the TFUS pace figures, package reports written by Beer, Finch, Lynch (Euro), Cj. My Bris pps. And again, that aforementioned BC Stat Report. What a generous and free gift those stats are; printed the entire thing. All of these help.

[GatetoWire]

I have attached a copy of a simple spreadsheet I created with a list of the races.
The best thing to do is to match the races with the weekend PP's.

[Cratos]

I look for first time Lasix.

I have hit Tonalist twice (Belmont Stakes and JCGC); and walked away with a bag full of "wooden nickels" that exceeded my expectations, but I will not bet any horse during the BC weekend this year.

However I do expect Shared Belief and Tonalist to run 1-2 in the BC Classic with Moreno poised to upset the applecart.

[Stillriledup]

Since 2012 a number of high profile races have started to employ extra security before the actual race.
For the 2012 & 2013 Breeders Cups and again this year every horse running in a Breeders Cup race has to go through extra Out of Competition drug testing and the have 24 hr a day surveillance for the last 72 hrs leading up to the race.

So right now every horse in a Breeders Cup race has a security guard following them non stop until they race. They sit outside their stall, they walk with them where ever they go. If a vet goes in to give medication it gets recorded and the vet has to give them the syringe so that they can test what medicine was given. There is a cutoff time for vets to work on the horses and on race day the only treatment that is allowed is Lasix given by a State appointed vet.

The Breeders Cup employees a whole team of equine security guards for these 4 days and it's a 1000% more strict than normal race day where there is only a sign on a horses stall saying in to race.

There have been 50 races run under this type of security (the 1st was the Belmont won by Union Rags) and I have noticed that some horses and some specific trainers horses performances in these races are not near as good as they are in normal races.

Many horses/trainers horses run very similar speed figures in these type of races to the ones that they ran in non security races, but there are several who's speed figures are much lower during these races than they are in normal races without the security.
To me this is a huge handicapping angle.

Great post. I think this info outs crooks more than any actual positive test would.

I would love to see which trainers "speed figures" drop off the most in these high security races, the proof would be in the pudding.

[GatetoWire]

Great post. I think this info outs crooks more than any actual positive test would.

I would love to see which trainers "speed figures" drop off the most in these high security races, the proof would be in the pudding.

Take a look at the PP's this weekend and match the speed figures to the races in security and out of security

You will find one barn in particular that almost ever horse runs their worst speed figure in 72 hr security. 21 of 24 horses declined in security.
They also have had 24 starters in 72 hr security and not recorded one triple digit Beyer fig.

Hard not to think it's not a coincidence.

[jk3521]

Take a look at the PP's this weekend and match the speed figures to the races in security and out of security

You will find one barn in particular that almost ever horse runs their worst speed figure in 72 hr security. 21 of 24 horses declined in security.
They also have had 24 starters in 72 hr security and not recorded one triple digit Beyer fig.

Hard not to think it's not a coincidence.
Any hint of who this is? I feel lazy today. :)

P.S. Sure wouldn't play Rudy's horse Belle Gallantey ,then.Will probably run a 50 speed figure today.

[Stillriledup]

Take a look at the PP's this weekend and match the speed figures to the races in security and out of security

You will find one barn in particular that almost ever horse runs their worst speed figure in 72 hr security. 21 of 24 horses declined in security.
They also have had 24 starters in 72 hr security and not recorded one triple digit Beyer fig.

Hard not to think it's not a coincidence.

To me, this is more damning circumstantial evidence that can get a 5 or 10 year ban than anything a blood or urine test can show.

[GatetoWire]

Any hint of who this is? I feel lazy today. :)

P.S. Sure wouldn't play Rudy's horse Belle Gallantey ,then.Will probably run a 50 speed figure today.

This barn also had 7 horses mysteriously die in California but the CHRB wants you to believe that it was some unknown mystery that no one can solve.

[Robert Fischer]

I look for how the horse is likely to react to the greater adversity.

Will this step up in class compliment or detract from his performance?

[Stillriledup]

I look for juicy large fields where everyone looks great on paper and i proceed to box up the Chalk and toss all the great looking longshots. So far, that strategy is working well at SA.

[Grits]

You would've done well with the chalk..the best on paper, (top early speed and 4R) in the Juvenile Turf paying $14.00. Nice chalk, huh? Same credentials in the Dirt Mile but that chalk paid $3.40.

Dig in, there's a whole 'nuther day of this; pace your complaining.

[Stillriledup]

You would've done well with the chalk..the best on paper, (top early speed and 4R) in the Juvenile Turf paying $14.00. Nice chalk, huh? Same credentials in the Dirt Mile but that chalk paid $3.40.

Dig in, there's a whole 'nuther day of this; pace your complaining.

Good call, i have to pace my complaining, there are only so many complaints left to offer! :D

[thespaah]

I look for first time Lasix.
Equipment changes. Starts over the track. Goldscents won today off a start at SA.
Works over the track coming up to the BC days. I look for top of the list works.

[thespaah]

Good call, i have to pace my complaining, there are only so many complaints left to offer! :D
Yes..You don't want to use up your compliment of complaints.
You'll have to "buy back in"..LOL!!!

[Tom]

Equipment changes. Starts over the track. Goldscents won today off a start at SA.
Works over the track coming up to the BC days. I look for top of the list works.

Untapable showed up a few weeks early and got acclimated. Local riders can have an edge, too. Especially if the ship in rider is a grabber.

[reckless]

Wow, I wish I read this thread yesterday. :(

I loved Bayern right up to this moment.

His big wins at Belmont, Monmouth and Parx were at 'anything goes' racetracks!

Well now I don't know what to do. I am alive with a nice Distaff-Classic double with Bayern.

All this said, thanks for the thread and poster who offered and mentioned the extra security angle.

[Stillriledup]

Wow, I wish I read this thread yesterday. :(

I loved Bayern right up to this moment.

His big wins at Belmont, Monmouth and Parx were at 'anything goes' racetracks!

Well now I don't know what to do. I am alive with a nice Distaff-Classic double with Bayern.

All this said, thanks for the thread and poster who offered and mentioned the extra security angle.

Game On Dude, from same barn as Bayern, "lost" about 15 to 20 Beyer points in the BC Classic. Most his other races he was in the 105-110 range, in the Classic, he barely ran a 90.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Rain! If it does, then I unload on the turf imports.

[Stillriledup]

This barn also had 7 horses mysteriously die in California but the CHRB wants you to believe that it was some unknown mystery that no one can solve.

Even if they want to believe the cause of death is unknown, it's at least malpractice. If a dentist or a doctor killed 7 patients by administering some foreign substance, do you think they would at very worst have their license suspended until a full investigation was made? And at the most, have their license revoked permanently?

[Ocala Mike]

I rarely do well on BC day(s); I usually wind up looking for a co-maker on a loan!

:)