View Full Version : Santa Anita Souped up for Br. Cup? Y/N?
JustRalph
10-29-2014, 07:34 PM
I'm reading all kinds saying no
I have absolutely no confidence in the track crew
Anything is possible....
Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 07:36 PM
SA is bone crushingly speed favoring right now. Horse handicapping is out the window, the form means nothing, the races might as well be 1 foot long because once the horse's establish position, there's very little movement. For every one race that collapses and the winners come circling up from the back, the other 99 are single file-athons with no gaining whatsoever.
Souping up the track might actually be ok as it can't possibly get any more speed favoring than it already is.
Typical of tracks to soup up on big days.
They think fast times will be impressive.
stormreveler
10-30-2014, 01:35 AM
It amazes me that they really do seem to think this way, when final times by the stopwatch are even more meaningless to the casual fan than they are to gamblers, year-round fans, etc.
Seems pretty obvious to me that the casual fan would be much more excited about a charge down the stretch to overtake the leaders than watching a parade around the track.
Stillriledup
10-30-2014, 01:56 AM
It amazes me that they really do seem to think this way, when final times by the stopwatch are even more meaningless to the casual fan than they are to gamblers, year-round fans, etc.
Seems pretty obvious to me that the casual fan would be much more excited about a charge down the stretch to overtake the leaders than watching a parade around the track.
Its important to have a track where the most amount of horses have a chance. If only the front runner and maybe a stalker or two can win, that's not good.
DRIVEWAY
10-30-2014, 11:23 AM
The temperatures on Friday(H71) and Saturday(H67) are fair to all contestants.
With the cooler weather the track should soften up somewhat and be fairer to closers.
Nitro
10-30-2014, 07:34 PM
Why in the world would a real horse player grumble about any form of noticeable track bias???? Last time I looked the fastest animal from gate to wire wins. If plodders can’t compete then look for softer spot. (That be taken literally)
Rex Phinney
10-30-2014, 08:06 PM
The more bias the easier it is to make money right?
If you think the speed bias is there load up on Goldencents and Bayern and let it rip.
Watching Friday's races, it looks like the jockies think it is juiced in favor of front runners. Most of them seem to be sending pretty hard. Trevor's comment in the last race, "Once again they are all lining up in the front."
jettroofer
10-30-2014, 10:41 PM
The answer is in race 10 tonite. The :4: was out of the money in 5 starts, the clear early speed, but should not have been even close to being able to hold. It was obvious few had a chance to make up ground. 32-1 to close the night, gate to wire. I would say its a parking lot.
Robert Goren
10-31-2014, 12:05 PM
Tracks generally try to have a very fast surface for its big days. I think SA will too. What the unintended consequences will be is yet to be determined. Generally when they shoot for fast times, they get an early speed favoring track. I hope they get one. I hate betting a "fair" track.
Robert Goren
10-31-2014, 12:07 PM
The answer is in race 10 tonite. The :4: was out of the money in 5 starts, the clear early speed, but should not have been even close to being able to hold. It was obvious few had a chance to make up ground. 32-1 to close the night, gate to wire. I would say its a parking lot.If we don't know until race 10, it going to be a fair track.
menifee
10-31-2014, 12:21 PM
The answer is in race 10 tonite. The :4: was out of the money in 5 starts, the clear early speed, but should not have been even close to being able to hold. It was obvious few had a chance to make up ground. 32-1 to close the night, gate to wire. I would say its a parking lot.
Yeah - the track was ridiculously speed favoring yesterday - especially in sprints. Why they do this every year is beyond me.
Nitro
10-31-2014, 05:36 PM
The answer is in race 10 tonite. The :4: was out of the money in 5 starts, the clear early speed, but should not have been even close to being able to hold. It was obvious few had a chance to make up ground. 32-1 to close the night, gate to wire. I would say its a parking lot. Jettroofer was referring to yesterday's 10th race. Horse players complain about everything under the sun, but when a gift horse looks them right in the eye they ignore it! And now they're looking for fairness!? How about looking for a score? I'll take a known track bias over any other handicapping angle any day of the week.
Santa Anita #10 FRI - 10/30
Race #10 8:42pm
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 4 Tribal Express $67.40 $19.20 $14.60
2 2 Gold Journey - ..........$5.00 ..$4.00
3 8 Diamond Cut - - ................$12.40
4 13 Powerful Girl - - -
5 9 Ill Tell You What
Did you post that pick BEFORE the race?
Jettroofer was referring to yesterday's 10th race. Horse players complain about everything under the sun, but when a gift horse looks them right in the eye they ignore it! And now they're looking for fairness!? How about looking for a score? I'll take a known track bias over any other handicapping angle any day of the week.
Santa Anita #10 FRI - 10/30
Race #10 8:42pm
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 4 Tribal Express $67.40 $19.20 $14.60
2 2 Gold Journey - ..........$5.00 ..$4.00
3 8 Diamond Cut - - ................$12.40
4 13 Powerful Girl - - -
5 9 Ill Tell You What
Never mind closers have already won two races today?
Stillriledup
10-31-2014, 06:12 PM
Never mind closers have already won two races today?
LOL at Race 7. So much for "closers" having a shot.
098poi
10-31-2014, 06:16 PM
I don't care how the track is playing or that Goldencents was 3/5, that was a very thrilling and impressive race.
Robert Fischer
10-31-2014, 06:16 PM
LOL at Race 7. So much for "closers" having a shot.
That was a $3.40 horse running in the pace scenario that the public expected when they picked him to win.
horses4courses
10-31-2014, 06:24 PM
Track looks pretty fair to me.
The Dirt Mile was run at a fast pace put up by two horses.
Goldenscents ran huge to hold on.
Vicars In Trouble (not chopped liver) got cooked, and finished last.
You can't say that the track helped the winner there.
Tapiture had every chance. The best horse won.
pandy
10-31-2014, 06:29 PM
Given the same pace and pressure, would Goldencents had won if the race had been at Churchill or Belmont? I doubt it. Game effort, but the Santa Anita track plays like a half mile harness track, not the way a thoroughbred track is supposed to play. Of course, he was the best horse and Tapiture had no excuse, but the track helps speed horses.
Given the same pace and pressure, would Goldencents had won if the race had been at Churchill or Belmont? I doubt it. Game effort, but the Santa Anita track plays like a half mile harness track, not the way a thoroughbred track is supposed to play. Of course, he was the best horse and Tapiture had no excuse, but the track helps speed horses.
Agree somewhat, but this isn't like a doctored track, this is how Santa Anita plays, no surprise. Last year was much worse, and then Saturday they did a complete reversal where speed was awful.
LOL at Race 7. So much for "closers" having a shot.
I hope people bet like this is something other than a regular Santa Anita track. The closers in that race are just not very good, period.
Rex Phinney
10-31-2014, 06:52 PM
Given the same pace and pressure, would Goldencents had won if the race had been at Churchill or Belmont? I doubt it. Game effort, but the Santa Anita track plays like a half mile harness track, not the way a thoroughbred track is supposed to play. Of course, he was the best horse and Tapiture had no excuse, but the track helps speed horses.
Vicars in trouble dropped to last.
The field behind Goldencents as it turns out was not very good. He slowed down and looked like a wounded duck coming down the stretch, the average horses behind him were not good enough to get by.
Grits
10-31-2014, 06:59 PM
Loads of early money bet on Lady Eli....good Lord. Tote was right.
Stillriledup
10-31-2014, 07:05 PM
Track looks pretty fair to me.
The Dirt Mile was run at a fast pace put up by two horses.
Goldenscents ran huge to hold on.
Vicars In Trouble (not chopped liver) got cooked, and finished last.
You can't say that the track helped the winner there.
Tapiture had every chance. The best horse won.
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
Rex Phinney
10-31-2014, 07:11 PM
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
Who cares they ran the race at Santa Anita.
He ran the last 1/4 in close to 26 seconds, if none of the others could catch him closing like that, they don't deserve to win.
ArlJim78
10-31-2014, 07:13 PM
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
against that field, yes. they could have run it anywhere with the same result.
the fractions might have been different but not the result.
someone remind me, which track is great for closers at a flat mile for top class horses?
Stillriledup
10-31-2014, 07:13 PM
Who cares they ran the race at Santa Anita.
He ran the last 1/4 in close to 26 seconds, if none of the others could catch him closing like that, they don't deserve to win.
Its not about deserving to win or not, the best horse gets dueled up on occasion in horse racing and they don't live to tell about it quite often. Plenty of horses who 'dont deserve to win' win in this game. We are trying to pick winners on a fair surface, bettors could care less who is most deserving.
Robert Fischer
10-31-2014, 07:25 PM
Loads of early money bet on Lady Eli....good Lord. Tote was right.
She was awesome!
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
Malarkey....SA is faster, so if he uses the same energy to go 44 at Santa Anita, it might transfer to 45 or even 46...apples to oranges.
She was awesome!
That was a damn nice stretch run!
Grits
10-31-2014, 07:31 PM
She was awesome!
RF, I liked the wrong brown horse! :rolleyes:
That was a damn nice stretch run!
I think that is the best winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf yet, by far.
horses4courses
10-31-2014, 07:46 PM
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
More chalk.
What a horrible freeway-like bias...... :rolleyes:
ten2oneormore
10-31-2014, 07:48 PM
Malarkey....SA is faster, so if he uses the same energy to go 44 at Santa Anita, it might transfer to 45 or even 46...apples to oranges.
What about the turf?
Euros no where to be found.Maybe not liking rock hard firm.
horses4courses
10-31-2014, 07:50 PM
What about the turf?
Euros no where to be found.Maybe not liking rock hard firm.
They did last year.
Just isn't happening for them - yet.
What about the turf?
Euros no where to be found.Maybe not liking rock hard firm.
I don't judge the Euro shippers on 2yos, they didn't look that great coming in to be honest, and they rarely send top runners. They have done fine on that course in the past.
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:23 PM
Its important to have a track where the most amount of horses have a chance. If only the front runner and maybe a stalker or two can win, that's not good.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:28 PM
Tracks generally try to have a very fast surface for its big days. I think SA will too. What the unintended consequences will be is yet to be determined. Generally when they shoot for fast times, they get an early speed favoring track. I hope they get one. I hate betting a "fair" track.
You hate betting a fair track?
Ummm. Ok...Whatever you say.
Is this so you and all other wise guys can bomb a legitimate 8-1 shot down to 3/5 and cash a 60 cent ticket just because the track favors speed?
Wow. Just wow.
Stillriledup
10-31-2014, 08:37 PM
Tracks generally try to have a very fast surface for its big days. I think SA will too. What the unintended consequences will be is yet to be determined. Generally when they shoot for fast times, they get an early speed favoring track. I hope they get one. I hate betting a "fair" track.
Most handicappers prefer a fair track because that way, if they have a good note on a horse, they can play that horse without having to worry about much.
A strong bias turns large fields into smaller fields as horses who aren't going to be close have no chance.
Harness racing on a half mile track sees the 7 and 8 posts very compromised, unless you leave the gate, or a miracle happens, you aren't going to win. That would be your definition of "not fair". Why would you want to bet a race where the 7 and 8 posts are "automatic throwouts"? That's what you're essentially doing when the bias is a no passing zone.
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:38 PM
Given the same pace and pressure, would Goldencents had won if the race had been at Churchill or Belmont? I doubt it. Game effort, but the Santa Anita track plays like a half mile harness track, not the way a thoroughbred track is supposed to play. Of course, he was the best horse and Tapiture had no excuse, but the track helps speed horses.
Good observation...
Here....
In the Distaff the opening half mile was 46.73. Not terribly fast but fast enough.
The last 3/f was 37.79. With a final furlong in 12.91....
The Dirt Mile....Sheesh. First half mile was 44.80....Now, the last 2F was 25.99. Last furlong in a pedestrian 13.24..A fast standardbred would have blown right by the leader.
If the track was playing fair, closers would have a chance. The speed was able to hang on because no other horse could close.
JustRalph
10-31-2014, 08:40 PM
I thought it was a little fast early, but after all was said and done, it played pretty much like the "normal" Santa Anita
Rain tonight........the plot thickens
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:50 PM
If the track is fair, that means Goldencents can run a 44 and change under pressure at any track in the country and hold on. Do you think that he wins this race with the same pace scenario at any other track?
No way!
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:52 PM
Loads of early money bet on Lady Eli....good Lord. Tote was right.
Yeah...THAT is one impressive filly
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:54 PM
I don't judge the Euro shippers on 2yos, they didn't look that great coming in to be honest, and they rarely send top runners. They have done fine on that course in the past.
I don't think the Euros train their young horses the same as they do here.
In fact, I am not familiar with any of the two year old stake races over there.
thespaah
10-31-2014, 08:59 PM
I thought it was a little fast early, but after all was said and done, it played pretty much like the "normal" Santa Anita
Rain tonight........the plot thickens
Under normal track conditions, drying out surfaces tend to be somewhat tiring and yield slower times. Not only that, they play a little more fair. Not so much speed bias, but under these conditions I tend to not bet closers either.
Drying out tracks tend to break up under the horse's feet making the going more difficult. There is less "bounce" in the surface. There is a period during the drying out process where we hear the term "cuppy"....This is when the dirt gets caught in the hooves of the horses. That's really tiring.
Robert Goren
11-01-2014, 08:53 AM
Horses who got to the inside on the turf yesterday seemed to do more running in the stretch. That was the only takeaway I had.
pandy
11-01-2014, 09:01 AM
I liked Imperia in the Juvenile Turf, Castellano had him inside but he got checked and blocked. The NBC crew said nothing about that or War Envoy's rough trip and instead said, "the first two finishers were clearly the best horses."
The track seemed fair to me.
I was very surprised.
Redboard
11-01-2014, 09:52 AM
Horses who got to the inside on the turf yesterday seemed to do more running in the stretch. That was the only takeaway I had.
I noticed that too. Exacerbated by the large fields in the two turf races so the closers had a long way to go if the wanted to circle the field.
sammy the sage
11-01-2014, 09:56 AM
I will guess that the track will be SEALED today...better be up front on the dirt...early...later in card...depends on weather...if rain still threatening or not...plus how much they are getting...probably wet/fast...just a guess mind ya...
in the dirt races...most seemed to actually stay bit off rail...fri...
goatchaser
11-01-2014, 01:21 PM
21.3 43.4 1:08.2 Cement track right now. BUT..It's expected that the track was pounded down so the rain didn't soak in. In rained until about 2 hours ago. Surprised it wasn't wet at all. I think they will dig a little deeper after each race.
raybo
11-01-2014, 02:04 PM
Santa Anita is what it always is, fast. If you know that going in, as a handicapper, then why would you bet as if it isn't fast? Makes no sense. Would I rather have the BC at another track? Yes, but only because my ADW won't let me bet Santa Anita, because I live in Texas!!!! Sucks big time! :bang:
I can bet almost any other track in the country, but not Santa Anita, on BC weekend!
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