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teddy
10-28-2014, 06:53 PM
The more money you can risk, the greater your advantage. Since I moved my bets to playing pick 6 and pick 5, I am up over 70k in 2 months. I always played $100 bets in those pools. Now I play 1000 in pick 5 and $3k in pick 6. Hit 2 p6 and many pick 5. Sometimes having them multipletimes. As soon as a 15 to one wins, all the small tics are dust. When your up 70k its easy to bet 1k a race. THATS THE TRICK. IN ALL FACETS OF LIFE ITS THE SAME . The guy with more money will get more and the little guy gets screwed. A guy with 400k can make 100 k flipping a house in a few months. Ect... little guy has no way to get into it. I am 100 percent sure your pick six group if you ever had done it would have been leveraging plenty of muscle. I dont even think you need that great a handicapper..

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 06:55 PM
If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 07:05 PM
If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.

I used to think this was true, but i'm seeing that its not. If you take equal handicappers and one guy has a 1,000 bankroll and the other guy has 100k, the guy with the 1k is effectively priced out of the pick 5 and pick 6 as well as Penta carryovers. The guy with the 100k can put in a 5k ticket in the pick 5, he can go 8 by 9 by 10 by whatever by whatever. He can put himself in a position to get lucky, where as the guy with the 1k can only basically make 20 dollar win bets.

It just would take forever for the guy with the 1k to even run his bankroll to 2k, but the guy with the 100k can make 20k in the blink of an eye.

Robert Goren
10-28-2014, 07:05 PM
Come back again after you hit a dry spell for a while. That said pick 6s with carryover can be a positive pool after takeout. Add in a good rebate and things are pretty ripe especially if the carryover isn't large enough to attract the big boys yet. I hope you have enough bankroll to handle the dry spells.

Note to Teddy; Did I sell you a book a few years ago or have got you mixed up with somebody else?

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 07:16 PM
I used to think this was true, but i'm seeing that its not. If you take equal handicappers and one guy has a 1,000 bankroll and the other guy has 100k, the guy with the 1k is effectively priced out of the pick 5 and pick 6 as well as Penta carryovers. The guy with the 100k can put in a 5k ticket in the pick 5, he can go 8 by 9 by 10 by whatever by whatever. He can put himself in a position to get lucky, where as the guy with the 1k can only basically make 20 dollar win bets.

It just would take forever for the guy with the 1k to even run his bankroll to 2k, but the guy with the 100k can make 20k in the blink of an eye.

Nothing is ever "equal". The guy with the 1K bankroll is unlikely to be as good a player as the one with the $100k bankroll. The guy with the short bankroll is making the biggest mistake he could make when he assumes that his bankroll is the reason for his failure in the game.

There are many players out there who think that a big bankroll is the only thing that separates them from the winners. They are all wrong.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 07:20 PM
Nothing is ever "equal". The guy with the 1K bankroll is unlikely to be as good a player as the one with the $100k bankroll. The guy with the short bankroll is making the biggest mistake he could make when he assumes that his bankroll is the reason for his failure in the game.

There are many players out there who think that a big bankroll is the only thing that separates them from the winners. They are all wrong.

I'm talking all things being equal. I believe that a great player with a small bankroll has a much harder chance to win just because he's priced out of the large-payout type bets as well as being priced out of chasing carryovers.

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 07:25 PM
I'm talking all things being equal. I believe that a great player with a small bankroll has a much harder chance to win just because he's priced out of the large-payout type bets as well as being priced out of chasing carryovers.

If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.

teddy
10-28-2014, 07:30 PM
If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.
This is not true.... you Cant with with Small money is the real truth. Least not in pick 5 or 6

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 07:34 PM
This is not true.... you Cant with with Small money is the real truth. Least not in pick 5 or 6

Ted...you say that you currently bet $3,000 on a pick-6. How big of a bankroll do you think a player needs in order to safely wager $3k on a pick-6?

PICSIX
10-28-2014, 07:47 PM
Ted...you say that you currently bet $3,000 on a pick-6. How big of a bankroll do you think a player needs in order to safely wager $3k on a pick-6?

If win betting, 300-600k.....For pick-6, about 5 times that amount. :eek:

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 07:49 PM
If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.

That's an entirely different discussion. In general, the bigger bankrolled players are better than the smaller bankrolled players, like you say, there's a reason the big bankrolled players have big bankrolls.

What about this hypothetical. Two equal players, both have 300k in their ADW accounts, but one guy decides to buy his mom a house and that house costs 298k. So, he's just as good as the 300k guy, but only has 2k in his adw.

He's great, so he will eventually turn that 2k into 20k or 50k , but it will take a LONG time to do that. Much longer than it will take the equal player who has 300k already in his account to turn that 300k into 350k.

Time is money, and no matter how great you are, it takes a long time to get 1k or 2k into 100k.

The guys with the big bankrolls all started off as 2 dollar bettors, this is the way all of us start our gambling careers, but the best of the best get their very small bankrolls into very big bankrolls....it just takes a LONG time to turn pennies into dollars. The small bankroll is a huge handicap even for the greatest of players.

lamboguy
10-28-2014, 07:54 PM
i would have to say the amount you bet is all relative to the size of the pools. you can walk up to the window in Saratoga on Whither's or Traver's Stakes days and bet $2000 to win and not budge the board. try doing it on wednesday and you are in trouble.

Robert Goren
10-28-2014, 08:02 PM
If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.Actually a lot of them were or at least they earned a lot of their bankroll outside of racing. It is a lot tougher to start as small bettor and win your way to being a large bettor because the positive ROI opportunities are few number than it is a lot of beatable gambling games.

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 08:04 PM
That's an entirely different discussion. In general, the bigger bankrolled players are better than the smaller bankrolled players, like you say, there's a reason the big bankrolled players have big bankrolls.

What about this hypothetical. Two equal players, both have 300k in their ADW accounts, but one guy decides to buy his mom a house and that house costs 298k. So, he's just as good as the 300k guy, but only has 2k in his adw.

He's great, so he will eventually turn that 2k into 20k or 50k , but it will take a LONG time to do that. Much longer than it will take the equal player who has 300k already in his account to turn that 300k into 350k.

Time is money, and no matter how great you are, it takes a long time to get 1k or 2k into 100k.

The guys with the big bankrolls all started off as 2 dollar bettors, this is the way all of us start our gambling careers, but the best of the best get their very small bankrolls into very big bankrolls....it just takes a LONG time to turn pennies into dollars. The small bankroll is a huge handicap even for the greatest of players.

I don't really enjoy debating these issues, because few people understand what I am talking about...mainly because their experience in the game differs from mine. I never started as a $2 bettor. I had more money than common sense as a younger man...and I was as self-confident as I could be...even when my self confidence wasn't based on much.

As a young man, I was a studious student of the game...and I created a playing strategy pretty quickly. Because of a mix of smarts and beginner's luck, I was able to build a $5,000 bankroll into $75,000 in one year's time...and THAT'S when I fully realized the difference between managing a small bankroll and managing a big one. What followed wasn't a pretty sight. There is a different sort of "pressure" associated with making big bets...and a player should elevate to this level of betting slowly...as his confidence in himself increases. It doesn't work when the player takes out a mortgage loan...and jumps into making big bets right from the start.

teddy
10-28-2014, 08:06 PM
If I didn't keep winning constantly I would believe it's just a fluke but after 2 months and my bankroll keeps going up and up. There is some skill of course sometimes you need to have the pic 5 7 or 8 times because of a chalk in the sequence. But what I'm saying is that you get really lucky and a sequence of events comes up or a favorite falls down.my bad changes depending on the races. I bet a $3000 pic 5 at keeneland when we had five races with 12 horses. I know the little guy cannot go deeper 5 races.I had a pick six at Belmont the other day for mid 25000 and it was fairly chalking but the favorite got beat three or four times by other low priced horses. And there was a carry over. I definitely play when there's a carryover because that's what Steve crist does to always play because of the numerical advantage.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 08:11 PM
I don't really enjoy debating these issues, because few people understand what I am talking about...mainly because their experience in the game differs from mine. I never started as a $2 bettor. I had more money than common sense as a younger man...and I was as self-confident as I could be...even when my self confidence wasn't based on much.

As a young man, I was a studious student of the game...and I created a playing strategy pretty quickly. Because of a mix of smarts and beginner's luck, I was able to build a $5,000 bankroll into $75,000 in one year's time...and THAT'S when I fully realized the difference between managing a small bankroll and managing a big one. What followed wasn't a pretty sight. There is a different sort of "pressure" associated with making big bets...and a player should elevate to this level of betting slowly...as his confidence in himself increases. It doesn't work when the player takes out a mortgage loan...and jumps into making big bets right from the start.

Here's what i think. If you're a young player who is in his (or her) teens or early 20s and just starting out, you need to start with the smallest amount of money possible, you need to be able to grow that small amount into much larger amounts, its the proper "process" to get from late teen/s early 20s into your 30s and 40s.

But, if you're an adult and been in this game a long time and have already dabbled in betting hundreds or thousands a race, you can't go back and relearn how to win with small money, and i think that's what the OP is essentially talking about.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 08:13 PM
If I didn't keep winning constantly I would believe it's just a fluke but after 2 months and my bankroll keeps going up and up. There is some skill of course sometimes you need to have the pic 5 7 or 8 times because of a chalk in the sequence. But what I'm saying is that you get really lucky and a sequence of events comes up or a favorite falls down.my bad changes depending on the races. I bet a $3000 pic 5 at keeneland when we had five races with 12 horses. I know the little guy cannot go deeper 5 races.I had a pick six at Belmont the other day for mid 25000 and it was fairly chalking but the favorite got beat three or four times by other low priced horses. And there was a carry over. I definitely play when there's a carryover because that's what Steve crist does to always play because of the numerical advantage.

I love your confidence, but you want some unsolicited advice? It doesn't matter if your winning is a fluke or not, but what does matter is that you need to understand that the game changes and even if you stay the great handicapper you are, the climate of the sport can change...and if you don't change with it, and change with it on a dime, you could run into a situation where you're doing one thing, but what you're doing is not applicable to racing TODAY.

its not always about flukes, even the greatest players can look really ordinary if the "game changes" and they don't immediately change along with it.

horses4courses
10-28-2014, 08:14 PM
The guy with the 1K bankroll is unlikely to be as good a player as the one with the $100k bankroll.

Can't agree with that.

Bankrolls for gambling are normally derived from non-gambling origins,
whether it's work or investment income, or any other outside source.

I've seen plenty of clowns with six figure bankrolls,
for either race or sports wagering, who couldn't pick their noses.

They all got their money from non-gambling sources.
Just because you have a $100K bankroll doesn't make
you better than a guy betting with a small fraction of that.

teddy
10-28-2014, 08:15 PM
also if I look at a pick 6 and it looks extremely difficult with the tickets going to be in the neighborhood of ten to fifteen thousand then all I'm doing is asking for a bigger whale to eat me. the turning my advantage over to the other player if I play a 3 k ticket.

AndyC
10-28-2014, 08:27 PM
I used to think this was true, but i'm seeing that its not. If you take equal handicappers and one guy has a 1,000 bankroll and the other guy has 100k, the guy with the 1k is effectively priced out of the pick 5 and pick 6 as well as Penta carryovers. The guy with the 100k can put in a 5k ticket in the pick 5, he can go 8 by 9 by 10 by whatever by whatever. He can put himself in a position to get lucky, where as the guy with the 1k can only basically make 20 dollar win bets.

It just would take forever for the guy with the 1k to even run his bankroll to 2k, but the guy with the 100k can make 20k in the blink of an eye.

So betting more options makes it more likely that you will be a net winner? In a 10 horse field would you bet 7 horses to win? Would you bet 30 different exacta combinations? Would you bet 100 different trifecta combinations? If no, at what point does betting more combinations in a negative sum game put you in a position to "get lucky"?

Tom
10-28-2014, 08:28 PM
Bankrolls and brain sizes are not automatically related.
Where did the bankroll come from?
Winnings?
Daddy?
Drug sales?

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 08:29 PM
Can't agree with that.

Bankrolls for gambling are normally derived from non-gambling origins,
whether it's work or investment income, or any other outside source.

I've seen plenty of clowns with six figure bankrolls,
for either race or sports wagering, who couldn't pick their noses.

They all got their money from non-gambling sources.
Just because you have a $100K bankroll doesn't make
you better than a guy betting with a small fraction of that.

I wasn't talking about the idiots who lose businesses, homes, and families because they want to indulge their addictions. I was talking about the serious-minded player...who is trying to play this game at a profit. The smart thing is to start with a MODERATE bankroll...and build it over time. It is STRESSFUL to consistently play for large amounts...but most players are not aware of this...because they haven't done it.

You don't start off with the pick-6 in your horse playing journey...unless you won the lotto, that is.

AndyC
10-28-2014, 08:38 PM
I would encourage anybody who believes that betting big is the key to success to post their make believe bets and show us just how easy it is.

JJMartin
10-28-2014, 08:41 PM
I would encourage anybody who believes that betting big is the key to success to post their make believe bets and show us just how easy it is.
That would shut em up pretty quick huh? :)

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 08:47 PM
I would encourage anybody who believes that betting big is the key to success to post their make believe bets and show us just how easy it is.

That may not be putting it strongly enough.

ANYBODY can pretend to put down $5,000 on a pick-6, lose 20 in a row, and keep on playing until he hits the one that eventually puts him over the top.

But sticking to your betting plan even as you find yourself down $100,000+ in real dollars is quite a different story...

MJC922
10-28-2014, 08:49 PM
I'm very skeptical that throwing lots of money around in and of itself is going to be the key ingredient to showing a long term profit. One can't buy every combination and show a long term profit, correct? On the other extreme one can buy a single combination and show a long term profit but almost never cash the ticket. Somewhere in-between is the correct amount to spend, and that's dictated by the type of card it is among other things. As usual you need to be better than everyone else at some point or I promise you it just doesn't work.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 08:56 PM
So betting more options makes it more likely that you will be a net winner? In a 10 horse field would you bet 7 horses to win? Would you bet 30 different exacta combinations? Would you bet 100 different trifecta combinations? If no, at what point does betting more combinations in a negative sum game put you in a position to "get lucky"?

I'm talking about winning gamblers only. I'm not suggesting a losing gambler can become a winner with a big bankroll. The winning gambler with the large bankroll is in a much better position than the winning gambler with the small bankroll because all pools are open to him. You need to be able to afford every kind of bet in every kind of pool, just gives you more options to be successful.

horses4courses
10-28-2014, 09:01 PM
I wasn't talking about the idiots who lose businesses, homes, and families because they want to indulge their addictions. I was talking about the serious-minded player...who is trying to play this game at a profit. The smart thing is to start with a MODERATE bankroll...and build it over time. It is STRESSFUL to consistently play for large amounts...but most players are not aware of this...because they haven't done it.

You don't start off with the pick-6 in your horse playing journey...unless you won the lotto, that is.

Agreed.

I see what you mean now about your $100K bankroll player.
This player has built it up from a much smaller figure.
That type of player is better than the vast majority.

The $100K player I was referring to earned millions
by a variety of outside sources. Losing $100K to them was
a pittance, and had little effect on their net wealth.

The difficulty for all these players is knowing when to stop.
Say your player started with $10K. Might be a good idea
for him to go back to a $20K bankroll, and invest the $80K
in stocks. That way, imo, he gets hungry again working
with smaller funds and plays smarter.

The clowns who start with a fat bankroll and lose it
through poor play need to (as Clint Eastwood used to say)
know their limitations. They need to quit altogether,
but most don't have the good sense to do that.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 09:12 PM
Agreed.

I see what you mean now about your $100K bankroll player.
This player has built it up from a much smaller figure.
That type of player is better than the vast majority.

The $100K player I was referring to earned millions
by a variety of outside sources. Losing $100K to them was
a pittance, and had little effect on their net wealth.

The difficulty for all these players is knowing when to stop.
Say your player started with $10K. Might be a good idea
for him to go back to a $20K bankroll, and invest the $80K
in stocks. That way, imo, he gets hungry again working
with smaller funds and plays smarter.

The clowns who start with a fat bankroll and lose it
through poor play need to (as Clint Eastwood used to say)
know their limitations. They need to quit altogether,
but most don't have the good sense to do that.

We need more 'clowns' in the game with large bankrolls, i could use the money.

horses4courses
10-28-2014, 09:15 PM
We need more 'clowns' in the game with large bankrolls, i could use the money.

Most of them bet sports - some bet anything that moved.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 09:16 PM
Most of them bet sports - some bet anything that moved.

They're smarter to bet sports, in sports you can bet 10, 20k or more at essentially a 5% take at fixed odds. Much better bet than horse racing.

horses4courses
10-28-2014, 09:20 PM
We need more 'clowns' in the game with large bankrolls, i could use the money.

I remember one guy whose family owned a major chain of burger joints,
mainly in the LA area. Father had started the chain years back, and
turned into multi-millions. Rumor had it that the family paid this particular
son a sizable monthly allowance - to stay the hell away! :lol:

He would bet on anything, and lost a lot.

Stillriledup
10-28-2014, 09:23 PM
I remember one guy whose family owned a major chain of burger joints,
mainly in the LA area. Father had started the chain years back, and
turned into multi-millions. Rumor had it that the family paid this particular
son a sizable monthly allowance - to stay the hell away! :lol:

He would bet on anything, and lost a lot.

Hopefully him and his wife are having lots of kids and dad is teaching the kids all he knows (as well as giving them large allowances!) :D

horses4courses
10-28-2014, 09:31 PM
Hopefully him and his wife are having lots of kids and dad is teaching the kids all he knows (as well as giving them large allowances!) :D

Last I heard he was in Vegas.
I'd be surprised if there's a happy ending.

Nice guy, but a train wreck.

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 09:31 PM
Agreed.

I see what you mean now about your $100K bankroll player.
This player has built it up from a much smaller figure.
That type of player is better than the vast majority.

The $100K player I was referring to earned millions
by a variety of outside sources. Losing $100K to them was
a pittance, and had little effect on their net wealth.

The difficulty for all these players is knowing when to stop.
Say your player started with $10K. Might be a good idea
for him to go back to a $20K bankroll, and invest the $80K
in stocks. That way, imo, he gets hungry again working
with smaller funds and plays smarter.

The clowns who start with a fat bankroll and lose it
through poor play need to (as Clint Eastwood used to say)
know their limitations. They need to quit altogether,
but most don't have the good sense to do that.

And the worst thing about starting out with a fat bankroll and losing it is that the losing player is unlikely to return to betting smaller amounts in the future. He is now stuck a big amount of money...and his preoccupation will naturally be to try and "win his money back" as fast as possible. This type of betting strategy screws a player up for a lifetime.

This is what I have meant in the past, when I have stated that there is a huge difference between being a good "handicapper"...and being a good "gambler". A good gambler understands that his own "human nature" often conspires against him when he is gambling...making HIMSELF his own worst enemy out there. Winning in gambling isn't the simple matter of figuring out our "edge" in the game...and acting on it. Even the biggest winners out there experience sudden and drastic fluctuations to their sizable bankrolls...and the pressure that ensues can wreck the gambling careers of even the most advanced players.

You need a great deal of self-confidence if you are going to survive the roller coaster of high-stakes gambling...and self-confidence isn't something that you can fake. You built your bankroll slowly and methodically...and the self-confidence that you build at the same time carries you over the rough waters that you are sure to experience.

Everyone wants to make a "killing"...but the most common "killing" for the gambler is a suicide.

thaskalos
10-28-2014, 09:38 PM
I'm talking about winning gamblers only. I'm not suggesting a losing gambler can become a winner with a big bankroll. The winning gambler with the large bankroll is in a much better position than the winning gambler with the small bankroll because all pools are open to him. You need to be able to afford every kind of bet in every kind of pool, just gives you more options to be successful.

A player can be winning with small bets...and then become a loser when he starts making big bets. It's a lot easier to be "creative" when your bets are small.

AndyC
10-28-2014, 10:11 PM
A player can be winning with small bets...and then become a loser when he starts making big bets. It's a lot easier to be "creative" when your bets are small.


Everybody has a choke point when it comes betting. It is the point where the size of their bet turns the act of betting into an emotional action that affects their play rather than just a mechanical action. For many very good handicappers, the choke point is very low.

ultracapper
10-28-2014, 11:56 PM
Thask and AndyC..............Good thread.

teddy
10-29-2014, 11:49 AM
I must suck because I was down 60k over last 5 year. Betting a couple hundred day. Switched to bets with payoffs that were way more than the parlay and suddenly I noticed I was making a killing. Its all math and guts. The 50 cent pick 5 is making the poor mans picksix a reality. Play the picksix when carryover is there and you have small fields. It not a bet where you should lose 50 in a row if it as 4 races with 8 horse or less fields and a couple spread races . Ideally a few races will be low odds horses. BEAT THE GAMBLER NOT THE HORSES. QUIT TRYING TO HANDICAP AND SPREAD OUT, KEY OBVIOUS HORSES. HELPS TO KNOW TH TRAINERS AND JOCKEY INTENT.

ReplayRandall
10-29-2014, 12:28 PM
I must suck because I was down 60k over last 5 year. Betting a couple hundred day. Switched to bets with payoffs that were way more than the parlay and suddenly I noticed I was making a killing. Its all math and guts. The 50 cent pick 5 is making the poor mans picksix a reality. Play the picksix when carryover is there and you have small fields. It not a bet where you should lose 50 in a row if it as 4 races with 8 horse or less fields and a couple spread races . Ideally a few races will be low odds horses. BEAT THE GAMBLER NOT THE HORSES. QUIT TRYING TO HANDICAP AND SPREAD OUT, KEY OBVIOUS HORSES. HELPS TO KNOW TH TRAINERS AND JOCKEY INTENT.


Tell me how you went from betting $200 a day, to betting $9000 a day? What was the catalyst that initiated this huge change? According to your first post, you were up $70K in 2 months. To do that, you would be wagering $9K a day, $45K a week for 9 weeks= $405K. If my figures are correct, you're now beating the game by 17.3% a month with no rebate, or 7.3% with an additional blended rebate of 10%, due to your volume..........

1st time lasix
10-29-2014, 01:16 PM
Although I agree with most here that throwing lots of money through the windows will not turn a loser into a winner.....I do agree that playing the low take-out pick five with a larger bankroll is quite important when the contenders to win runs deep. Have gravitated toward the pick five as my main pool target these days...along with pick fours and the carryover sixes. At first i tried a very rifle approach with slim tickets. I have found that trying to use multiple singles.... or cutting off "must covers" trying to shave a few bucks from the total outlay is a mistake. I learned that the hard way. One generally gets overlay payouts when two favorites in the five sequence miss. You also tend to do well in the either of the chaulk favorites miss in the first two legs of the sequence. {I don't really know why- other than some players must feel the need to stay alive} *** You simply can't miss-- when you find that "seperator".. an "A ranked" contender overlay you selected that does win at juicy odds. If he does and you don't have it because you only wanted to go three deep instead of four or five deep in another race without a solid opinion ...you should be ashamed. Deserving to lose.

magwell
10-29-2014, 02:05 PM
I'm talking all things being equal. I believe that a great player with a small bankroll has a much harder chance to win just because he's priced out of the large-payout type bets as well as being priced out of chasing carryovers. You are 100% right, with small bankroll you cant go DEEP and that's the advantage the big boys have.........:cool:

AndyC
10-29-2014, 02:09 PM
Although I agree with most here that throwing lots of money through the windows will not turn a loser into a winner.....I do agree that playing the low take-out pick five with a larger bankroll is quite important when the contenders to win runs deep. Have gravitated toward the pick five as my main pool target these days...along with pick fours and the carryover sixes. At first i tried a very rifle approach with slim tickets. I have found that trying to use multiple singles.... or cutting off "must covers" trying to shave a few bucks from the total outlay is a mistake. I learned that the hard way. One generally gets overlay payouts when two favorites in the five sequence miss. You also tend to do well in the either of the chaulk favorites miss in the first two legs of the sequence. {I don't really know why- other than some players must feel the need to stay alive} *** You simply can't miss-- when you find that "seperator".. an "A ranked" contender overlay you selected that does win at juicy odds. If he does and you don't have it because you only wanted to go three deep instead of four or five deep in another race without a solid opinion ...you should be ashamed. Deserving to lose.

The mindset of the player can be their own worst enemy. If I had an "A ranked" contender in one race and some not so solid opinions in other races I would look for another way to leverage my "A ranked" horse other than by forcing a P-5 or P-6 play.

AndyC
10-29-2014, 02:21 PM
You are 100% right, with small bankroll you cant go DEEP and that's the advantage the big boys have.........:cool:


Please demonstrate the advantage by posting P-5 and P-6 bets using a mythical large bankroll. You might find it much harder than you think even without the tension and emotions associated with making real money large bets.

There is no greater emotional deflator than being blown out of a large P-6 ticket in a race you thought that you had covered.

1st time lasix
10-29-2014, 02:31 PM
The mindset of the player can be their own worst enemy. If I had an "A ranked" contender in one race and some not so solid opinions in other races I would look for another way to leverage my "A ranked" horse other than by forcing a P-5 or P-6 play. ****** Playing a pick five or six for an oversized payout does not at all preclude me from playing the race individually as well. You leverage your picks one way...I try to attack from different perspectives and difeerent pools. My mindset is fine thank you. Win...exacta...pick 4,...pick 5...and carry over 6 are my preferred methods. To each his own.

magwell
10-29-2014, 02:52 PM
Please demonstrate the advantage by posting P-5 and P-6 bets using a mythical large bankroll. You might find it much harder than you think even without the tension and emotions associated with making real money large bets.

There is no greater emotional deflator than being blown out of a large P-6 ticket in a race you thought that you had covered.I agree it's a real bummer, but much bigger when the last horse you threw out beats you for a BIG score because you tried to cut the ticket down, been there done that too many times...........

AndyC
10-29-2014, 03:07 PM
****** Playing a pick five or six for an oversized payout does not at all preclude me from playing the race individually as well. You leverage your picks one way...I try to attack from different perspectives and difeerent pools. My mindset is fine thank you. Win...exacta...pick 4,...pick 5...and carry over 6 are my preferred methods. To each his own.

Never said that you couldn't play the race individually. Merely pointed out that many players will force a P-5 or P-6 bet when it really isn't warranted just because they have an "A rated" selection.

How do you know when there will be an oversized payout in a P-5 or P-6? And how do you define an oversized payout?

AndyC
10-29-2014, 03:13 PM
I agree it's a real bummer, but much bigger when the last horse you threw out beats you for a BIG score because you tried to cut the ticket down, been there done that too many times...........

Even with large tickets you sometimes have to cut a ticket down.

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 03:23 PM
I can't tell you how many times i've lost out on a pick 5 or pick 6 because the "next horse" i would have used won and i hit all the other legs.

These are also races where i specifically told myself "i'm going 2 deep here, and if i get beat in this bet, this specific horse, the next horse i would use, is the one that's going to get me". Happens all too often.

So you might say "why not include that horse than" and the answer is at some point you have to make decisions and cut tickets down if you don't have an unlimited bankroll.

There are 2 ways to get beat in pick 5s and pick 6s and even Pentas to a certain degree. One way is to just not handicap well enough and the other way is just being priced out of the amount of combinations you need to cover.

Getting beat because you "couldnt afford" horses in your sequence hurts a lot more than if you get beat fair and square because your handicapping and main opinions just weren't good enough. If you handicap bad and lose, you can live with it....its handicapping good and not being able to afford to put in the ticket you want to put in that hurts the most.

magwell
10-29-2014, 04:18 PM
SRU you know sometimes you make a lot of sense, but on other occasions ? anyway your spot on with this.........:)

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 04:30 PM
SRU you know sometimes you make a lot of sense, but on other occasions ? anyway your spot on with this.........:)

Thanks Mags.

My problem is making sense, i need to start making dollars!

thaskalos
10-29-2014, 04:35 PM
Thanks Mags.

My problem is making sense, i need to start making dollars!
That's an easy problem to solve. Just get yourself a big bankroll. :)

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 04:38 PM
That's an easy problem to solve. Just get yourself a big bankroll. :)

My bankroll is big enough , the only problem is that the bankroll is not liquid, its hard to bet "things you own" on the horses, they usually ask for cash! :D

DeltaLover
10-29-2014, 04:41 PM
My bankroll is big enough , the only problem is that the bankroll is not liquid, its hard to bet "things you own" on the horses, they usually ask for cash! :D

Bankroll = CASH
Gamblers, when running good, they also run loaded with green :cool:

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 04:45 PM
Bankroll = CASH
Gamblers, when running good, they also run loaded with green :cool:

Yes, its a great feeling to be LIQUID!

magwell
10-29-2014, 04:47 PM
Thanks Mags.

My problem is making sense, i need to start making dollars!If you come down to GP this winter I'll show you how to make a small fortune, but you better bring a big one.........:lol:

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 04:48 PM
If you come down to GP this winter I'll show you how to make a small fortune, but you better bring a big one.........:lol:

Yes, if you want to become a millionaire in racing, start with 2! :D

Poindexter
10-29-2014, 04:52 PM
QUOTE=Stillriledup]I can't tell you how many times i've lost out on a pick 5 or pick 6 because the "next horse" i would have used won and i hit all the other legs.

These are also races where i specifically told myself "i'm going 2 deep here, and if i get beat in this bet, this specific horse, the next horse i would use, is the one that's going to get me". Happens all too often.

So you might say "why not include that horse than" and the answer is at some point you have to make decisions and cut tickets down if you don't have an unlimited bankroll.

There are 2 ways to get beat in pick 5s and pick 6s and even Pentas to a certain degree. One way is to just not handicap well enough and the other way is just being priced out of the amount of combinations you need to cover.

Getting beat because you "couldnt afford" horses in your sequence hurts a lot more than if you get beat fair and square because your handicapping and main opinions just weren't good enough. If you handicap bad and lose, you can live with it....its handicapping good and not being able to afford to put in the ticket you want to put in that hurts the most.[/QUOTE]



Of course it happens all the time, but look at the Math. Let's say you play a pick 5 1x4x4x4x4 or 128 combos. Now just to cover your next contender i each races you go to 2x5x5x5x5 or 1250 combos. You are betting 10 times the money. Your probability of hitting the first ticket is maybe .4*.7*.7*.7*.75 or a 9.6% chance of hitting.

on your second ticket you may be

.6*.8*.8*.8*.9 or about a 27.6% chance of hitting.

The first way if you are playing 50 cent pick 5's I think your bankroll is somewhere around 70 times he bet size or maybe $1800. The second way your bankroll is around 20 times the amount bet or $12,500. These estimations are just from some work I did with binomial distribution many years ago. I think they are fairly accurate. You start getting into $2 pick sixes and the bankroll starts to get enormous(as you are betting 4 times the amount if you can dig up another single who has at best a 50% chance of winning in most cases). So now on the pricier play you are up to a $2500 play with at best a 13.8% chance of hitting or in my estimation 45X$2500 or a bankroll of $112,500.

Now the OP has hit some big ones is up 70K, so he has a good portion of his bankroll covered. Do you? Are you willing to lose $100,000 chasing pick sixes. No matter how good you are it can happen. You might be creative and selective an be able to bring your bankroll risk down some, but when you start getting into large tickets you are generally getting into big bankrolls and there are no guarantees. If you lose $75,000 betting these pick sixes, are you going to attack the next one with the same confidence. Are you even going to keep attacking or are you going to come to the conclusion maybe this is not such a good idea.

Sure if you are worth 3 or 4 million, you might want to take a small portion of your net worth to create a pick5/pick 6 bankroll, play larger tickets and see where it takes you. I would advise you do it on paper for about 6 months to make sure you know what you are doing. It is one thing to single a 4-1 shot you love on a $48 pick 3 it is a whole other thing to single him on a $2000 pick six play. But for the layman, on a limited bankroll, this is a sure path to the poor house. Unless you have the expendable bankroll to keep up with your plays and are willing to expend it, large tickets are not a wise way to go.

thaskalos
10-29-2014, 04:52 PM
My bankroll is big enough , the only problem is that the bankroll is not liquid, its hard to bet "things you own" on the horses, they usually ask for cash! :D
I got the opposite problem. I got all my money tied up in cash. :cool:

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 05:15 PM
Poiny



That's one of the toughest things to decide, where is the risk tolerance and where is the cutoff. I feel that if you don't have at least 50k in the ADW you should just stick to win bets and some multiples of 2 like exas and DDs. If you have 50 or more, than you can consider getting into the pick anything arena and taking some shots with 5k tickets that spread very deep in multiple legs.

Appy
10-29-2014, 05:17 PM
One of the oldest and most widely accepted axioms in business is "It takes money to make money". There might be no better example to prove it than wagering on horse races.

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 05:23 PM
One of the oldest and most widely accepted axioms in business is "It takes money to make money". There might be no better example to prove it than wagering on horse races.

no doubt. When you see a pick something pay in the tens of thousands, 9 times out of 10, its hit by someone who's putting in very large tickets and can purchase a ton of combos.

AndyC
10-29-2014, 07:35 PM
I can't tell you how many times i've lost out on a pick 5 or pick 6 because the "next horse" i would have used won and i hit all the other legs.

These are also races where i specifically told myself "i'm going 2 deep here, and if i get beat in this bet, this specific horse, the next horse i would use, is the one that's going to get me". Happens all too often.

So you might say "why not include that horse than" and the answer is at some point you have to make decisions and cut tickets down if you don't have an unlimited bankroll.

There are 2 ways to get beat in pick 5s and pick 6s and even Pentas to a certain degree. One way is to just not handicap well enough and the other way is just being priced out of the amount of combinations you need to cover.

Getting beat because you "couldnt afford" horses in your sequence hurts a lot more than if you get beat fair and square because your handicapping and main opinions just weren't good enough. If you handicap bad and lose, you can live with it....its handicapping good and not being able to afford to put in the ticket you want to put in that hurts the most.

I simply don't agree that an unlimited bankroll makes it so much easier to win. There is always a point where you can't afford to put in horses. When the size of your ticket gets so large that the rewards of a winning ticket don't justify the cost, you have to cut down. If you haven't played big tickets you wouldn't realize the amount of anxiety in putting such a ticket together.

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 07:39 PM
I simply don't agree that an unlimited bankroll makes it so much easier to win. There is always a point where you can't afford to put in horses. When the size of your ticket gets so large that the rewards of a winning ticket don't justify the cost, you have to cut down. If you haven't played big tickets you wouldn't realize the amount of anxiety in putting such a ticket together.

Its not much easier to win, but what it affords is that you can bet into ALL the pools, you can realistically hit a pick 5, pick 6, etc and you can't do that with small bankroll as well as not being able to get involved in carryovers.

You are right that no matter how much the bankroll, there is a limit to what makes sense considering the sequence.

My anxiety comes from NOT being able to put in the big ticket when i know a big ticket will hit the thing.

whodoyoulike
10-29-2014, 09:06 PM
I simply don't agree that an unlimited bankroll makes it so much easier to win. There is always a point where you can't afford to put in horses. When the size of your ticket gets so large that the rewards of a winning ticket don't justify the cost, you have to cut down. If you haven't played big tickets you wouldn't realize the amount of anxiety in putting such a ticket together.

I think a good example of an unlimited bankroll making it easier to win is the recent Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick6 hit earlier this year. At the time, I wondered how many times over the course of the building pool did the winner submit similar tickets. I'm hoping for him it was financially worth it at the time. I think the winner singled 1 or 2 of the 6 and then all for the others. Pretty gutsy move.

AndyC
10-29-2014, 09:56 PM
I think a good example of an unlimited bankroll making it easier to win is the recent Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick6 hit earlier this year. At the time, I wondered how many times over the course of the building pool did the winner submit similar tickets. I'm hoping for him it was financially worth it at the time. I think the winner singled 1 or 2 of the 6 and then all for the others. Pretty gutsy move.

I doubt that if most good handicappers were handed a $500,000 bankroll that they would target the Rainbow 6 as a good bet. Sometimes good things happen to bad bets. See also Lotto results.

PIC6SIX
10-29-2014, 11:08 PM
An example of the big P-6 big bankroller going down the tub just key in on the Twinspires consortium some years ago on BC day. They put in a ticket in excess of 50K and were out the first leg when Bejarano wired the field, if I remember correctly. Those are the general details as I remember.

Stillriledup
10-29-2014, 11:27 PM
An example of the big P-6 big bankroller going down the tub just key in on the Twinspires consortium some years ago on BC day. They put in a ticket in excess of 50K and were out the first leg when Bejarano wired the field, if I remember correctly. Those are the general details as I remember.

Its easy to just scrap together a 50k ticket if you're not betting 1 penny of your own money.

teddy
10-30-2014, 11:18 AM
Tell me how you went from betting $200 a day, to betting $9000 a day? What was the catalyst that initiated this huge change? According to your first post, you were up $70K in 2 months. To do that, you would be wagering $9K a day, $45K a week for 9 weeks= $405K. If my figures are correct, you're now beating the game by 17.3% a month with no rebate, or 7.3% with an additional blended rebate of 10%, due to your volume..........

I usually have a couple thousand dollars in there and I had a pic 5 which boosted me up to 15,000 then a couple more pics fives and I was around 20,000 then I played a small fields carryover pick 6 and hit that baby for 25000 and another couple of them for similar numbers of twelve to twenty thousand. The IRS is holding 25,000 bucks for me. And now I have to figure out how to get that back. I really think that to take away from this is that you can play the pick 5 with multiple multiple tickets is what I do and the Pick six only when the odds in your favor or is that it is more like a pic 5 due to field size and you get a huge carry over. I would not play the Pick six at Santa Anita today with $100,000. It just doesn't line up as a safe bet. It's all about putting the advantages to work for you in this game if you're going to have any success. And it's less about the handicapping I know that flies in the face of everyone on here but it's more about how and when you are wagering. If the numbers are in your favor you're going to win. You just have to play long enough to get lucky on a feiced horses in your pic a couple long priced horses in your pic 5.

ReplayRandall
10-30-2014, 11:29 AM
I usually have a couple thousand dollars in there and I had a pic 5 which boosted me up to 15,000 then a couple more pics fives and I was around 20,000 then I played a small fields carryover pick 6 and hit that baby for 25000 and another couple of them for similar numbers of twelve to twenty thousand. The IRS is holding 25,000 bucks for me. And now I have to figure out how to get that back. I really think that to take away from this is that you can play the pick 5 with multiple multiple tickets is what I do and the Pick six only when the odds in your favor or is that it is more like a pic 5 due to field size and you get a huge carry over. I would not play the Pick six at Santa Anita today with $100,000. It just doesn't line up as a safe bet. It's all about putting the advantages to work for you in this game if you're going to have any success. And it's less about the handicapping I know that flies in the face of everyone on here but it's more about how and when you are wagering. If the numbers are in your favor you're going to win. You just have to play long enough to get lucky on a feiced horses in your pic a couple long priced horses in your pic 5.


Is this your response to my post? Are you kidding? Teddy, there are 2 things that I know DON'T fly........you and your pathetic post.........

PaceAdvantage
10-30-2014, 11:35 AM
Is this your response to my post? Are you kidding? Teddy, there are 2 things that I know DON'T fly........you and your pathetic post.........Tone it down brutha...

teddy
11-06-2014, 12:48 AM
Gp big carryover and max rebates make this a huge play for me. Should be a no vig bet with pos expectation due to the rebates. Waiting for opportunity days like this is a huge advantage for a $1000 pick five swing.

ultracapper
11-06-2014, 04:47 AM
I think a good example of an unlimited bankroll making it easier to win is the recent Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick6 hit earlier this year. At the time, I wondered how many times over the course of the building pool did the winner submit similar tickets. I'm hoping for him it was financially worth it at the time. I think the winner singled 1 or 2 of the 6 and then all for the others. Pretty gutsy move.
2/*/*/*/*/*

I think he went 2 deep in the 4th leg, IIRC. All button in the other 5 legs. Day before the mandatory payout. Smart, smart play. Good thing he could cover that one leg with just 2. Another horse raises the price of his ticket another 50%. It was already a $.10 bet that had generated a $7000+ price tag.

ultracapper
11-06-2014, 04:58 AM
If you can't afford the necessary ticket to make the bet correctly, the smartest thing is to pass and put that money aside, add some more to it over time, and wait for the next opportunity with the bigger bankroll. A lot of folks act like the carryover today will be the last one they'll ever see.

They lose $500 on this carryover because they couldn't punch the necessary ticket, lose $600 on that one for the same reason, $450, $750, $550 on the next 3. Don't make any of those bets, hold on to the money, and take your best shot with the $2850 you've now accumulated.

It's nothing more than you did as a kid when you saved half your allowance each week for a couple months so you could buy the leather baseball mitt instead of the little crappy plastic one you could afford after a couple weeks.

biggestal99
11-06-2014, 06:39 AM
Although I agree with most here that throwing lots of money through the windows will not turn a loser into a winner.

I whole heartly disagree with this premise. The more you bet the bigger your rebates.

Hence you have a better chance of winning with a million dollar bankroll than 1k
Due to the lower takeout from your bets.

Allan

DeltaLover
11-06-2014, 07:30 AM
If you can't afford the necessary ticket to make the bet correctly, the smartest thing is to pass and put that money aside, add some more to it over time, and wait for the next opportunity with the bigger bankroll. A lot of folks act like the carryover today will be the last one they'll ever see.

They lose $500 on this carryover because they couldn't punch the necessary ticket, lose $600 on that one for the same reason, $450, $750, $550 on the next 3. Don't make any of those bets, hold on to the money, and take your best shot with the $2850 you've now accumulated.

It's nothing more than you did as a kid when you saved half your allowance each week for a couple months so you could buy the leather baseball mitt instead of the little crappy plastic one you could afford after a couple weeks.

Nice post :ThmbUp:

teddy
11-06-2014, 08:14 AM
I was able to get a huge increase of my rebate due to betting 2000 a day or more. They will bend over backwards.The rebate on some of my supers is 20%
that doesn't make you a winner by any stretch of the imagination but it's nice to wake up with an extra 500 bucks in your pocket. I think players need to get to where they can bet at least that much a day with their exact to play and win bets just to get these type of rebates. Otherwise you're playing and you're behind the eight ball.

AndyC
11-06-2014, 10:26 AM
If you can't afford the necessary ticket to make the bet correctly, the smartest thing is to pass and put that money aside, add some more to it over time, and wait for the next opportunity with the bigger bankroll. A lot of folks act like the carryover today will be the last one they'll ever see.

They lose $500 on this carryover because they couldn't punch the necessary ticket, lose $600 on that one for the same reason, $450, $750, $550 on the next 3. Don't make any of those bets, hold on to the money, and take your best shot with the $2850 you've now accumulated.

It's nothing more than you did as a kid when you saved half your allowance each week for a couple months so you could buy the leather baseball mitt instead of the little crappy plastic one you could afford after a couple weeks.


How would you define the "necessary ticket"?

teddy
11-06-2014, 12:41 PM
November 6 12:24 PM Aqueduct 1 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 4, 5 / 5, 9, 11 / 3, 8, 9, 10 $144.00
Cancel
November 6 12:20 PM Aqueduct 1 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 4, 5 / 5, 9, 11 / 3 $180.00
Cancel
November 6 12:19 PM Aqueduct 1 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 4, 5 / 5, 9, 11 / 10 $288.00
Cancel
November 6 12:18 PM Aqueduct 1 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 5 / 5, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 9, 10 $160.00
Cancel
November 6 12:16 PM Aqueduct 1 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 5 / 1, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 3, 9, 10 $256.00

teddy
11-06-2014, 02:19 PM
That was tooooooooooo hard... rear end kicked.

teddy
11-06-2014, 03:12 PM
ovember 6 2:56 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 3 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 4 $120.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8, 9 / 1, 2, 4 $540.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $420.00
Cancel
November 6 2:33 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 7 $480.00
Cancel
November 6 2:29 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $840.00

Stillriledup
11-06-2014, 03:21 PM
ovember 6 2:56 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 3 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 4 $120.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8, 9 / 1, 2, 4 $540.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $420.00
Cancel
November 6 2:33 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 7 $480.00
Cancel
November 6 2:29 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $840.00

I was going to play pick 5 today at "Crc" but changed my mind when it looked like the tickets would have been more than i wanted to spend today on them. I was toying with singling the 2 in leg 2, but passed and decided just to bet him straight.

teddy
11-06-2014, 03:50 PM
two favs beat.... its winding up for a POW

ultracapper
11-06-2014, 05:01 PM
How would you define the "necessary ticket"?

I really have no definition other than you feel you've covered all your bases. Your not doing what SRU hates so much, which is throwing one out you really would like to keep but can't afford.

Grits
11-06-2014, 05:06 PM
two favs beat.... its winding up for a POW

CRICKETS. All I hear is crickets, Teddy.

On this note, since I'm unknowing as to whether you have a trust account the size of Texas, I'm getting more concerned with these posts of your's because.. what goes up always comes down. When you wrote that you're a seller of Ecigarettes? Your life was more stable, honey. :lol:

There's two things you need to keep in mind before the month of February.

(1) If you live in the Northeast and your heat's turned off by the power company? That cheap cape ain't gonna keep you warm. (2) If you tap? That cape's not gonna taste any better with free sauce packets poured all over it either.

Remember, Teddy. YOU CANNOT FLY!

G. ;)

cj
11-06-2014, 05:18 PM
ovember 6 2:56 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 3 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 4 $120.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8, 9 / 1, 2, 4 $540.00
Cancel
November 6 2:34 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $420.00
Cancel
November 6 2:33 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 7 $480.00
Cancel
November 6 2:29 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 $840.00

How much is actually in the P5 pool there? These are some pretty stout bets for what I presume isn't that big of a pool, but maybe I'm wrong.

teddy
11-06-2014, 05:46 PM
I love it! I missed a 3-1 that cost me 25k....in the ninth. Am I worried.. not in the slightest.

teddy
11-06-2014, 05:50 PM
Carryover was 50k they bet 160 at it.

happy camper
11-06-2014, 07:19 PM
Why does it say cancel at the end of the bets?
What ADW site do you use?

happy camper
11-06-2014, 07:23 PM
I'm happy you've hit some nice ones. I mostly play pick 4's and 5's. It feels great to be on top, but eventually things coming falling down.

Stillriledup
11-06-2014, 07:26 PM
I'm happy you've hit some nice ones. I mostly play pick 4's and 5's. It feels great to be on top, but eventually things coming falling down.

Why do they have to come falling down?

teddy
11-06-2014, 07:31 PM
so you can cancel your bet before the race... Its a select place and I wont tout it because you have to bet 1mill year to join. They dont advertise here so unless PA does not mind me saying, I will let you figure it out.

Ted Craven
11-07-2014, 09:45 AM
Happy Camper, if you or anyone else needs to get more info on appropriate rebating ADWs for your residence or betting volume, please just check the link in my signature below and drop me a private note.

Teddy, it was me who mentioned to Scott B to contact you last month ...

Ted

teddy
11-07-2014, 11:12 AM
Not familiar with him. Iget 2% on pick5 at Aqu...3.5 at gp

flatstats
11-08-2014, 08:45 PM
Greatest lesson learned? (learnt if British)

Already posted here a year ago but worth repeating:

"If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always got".

Meaning:

* If you keep on creating losing methods you will always keep on losing.
* If it's in your psyche (you have conditioned yourself to be attracted to loss)
* If you have a poverty consciousness (you are addicted to giving your money away)
* If you don't like to be seen to be a failure (you created a "system" and you don't want others to see it as a mistake)
* If you don't like to feel like a failure (you created a "system" and you don't want to batter yourself up that you made a mistake)

teddy
11-11-2014, 05:29 PM
ember 11 2:35 PM Gulfstream West 6 $0.50 P5 (PWHL) 1, 7, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 4, 8, 9 / 1, 3, 7 / 3, 5, 6 $540.00 $2,781.65
November 11 2:32 PM Gulfstream West 5 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 7, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 8 / 1 / 3, 5, 6 $180.00 $0.00
November 11 2:31 PM Gulfstream West 5 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 7, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2, 4, 8, 9 / 3, 7 / 3, 5, 6 $720.00 $4,560.20 Actually paid 6000. Small dry spell.. back today. Wind under my cape.

tanner12oz
11-11-2014, 06:51 PM
Happy Camper, if you or anyone else needs to get more info on appropriate rebating ADWs for your residence or betting volume, please just check the link in my signature below and drop me a private note.

Teddy, it was me who mentioned to Scott B to contact you last month ...

Ted

pa still a black hole right?

teddy
11-13-2014, 05:16 PM
November 13 12:24 PM Gulfstream West 5 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 / 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 6, 10 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 $2,880.00 $7,657.4

irs keeps taking 25% to hold for me.. POW

Stillriledup
11-13-2014, 07:29 PM
November 13 12:24 PM Gulfstream West 5 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 / 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 6, 10 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 $2,880.00 $7,657.4

irs keeps taking 25% to hold for me.. POW

The greatest lesson ever learned is turning into the greatest bankroll Teddy has ever churned!

Keep hammerin them Ted! :ThmbUp:

teddy
11-13-2014, 07:40 PM
So close to 115 k on that bet. Missed by a head in the second to last race. . You talk about excitement.. lol.

Ted Craven
11-14-2014, 11:16 AM
pa still a black hole right?

Check your PMs.

raybo
11-14-2014, 05:40 PM
If I didn't keep winning constantly I would believe it's just a fluke but after 2 months and my bankroll keeps going up and up. There is some skill of course sometimes you need to have the pic 5 7 or 8 times because of a chalk in the sequence. But what I'm saying is that you get really lucky and a sequence of events comes up or a favorite falls down.my bad changes depending on the races. I bet a $3000 pic 5 at keeneland when we had five races with 12 horses. I know the little guy cannot go deeper 5 races.I had a pick six at Belmont the other day for mid 25000 and it was fairly chalking but the favorite got beat three or four times by other low priced horses. And there was a carry over. I definitely play when there's a carryover because that's what Steve crist does to always play because of the numerical advantage.

Late to this thread, but "2 months"? Check back after 2 years and we'll see.

raybo
11-14-2014, 05:58 PM
My bankroll is big enough , the only problem is that the bankroll is not liquid, its hard to bet "things you own" on the horses, they usually ask for cash! :D

If your bankroll isn't liquid, then you have no bankroll. there are lots of people who have "assets" but no operating money. The key is a combination of operating capital and cash flow. It's the same in any business on the planet.

Show me a guy that took $500 and turned it into $1000 over a few months, and a guy that took $200,000 and turned it into $400,000 in the same time period, and I'll choose the former every time. The difference is that the $500 guy learned the value of money and how it affects your mindset, while the $200,000 guy could afford to lose a lot, and probably learned nothing.

Stillriledup
11-14-2014, 06:49 PM
If your bankroll isn't liquid, then you have no bankroll. there are lots of people who have "assets" but no operating money. The key is a combination of operating capital and cash flow. It's the same in any business on the planet.

Show me a guy that took $500 and turned it into $1000 over a few months, and a guy that took $200,000 and turned it into $400,000 in the same time period, and I'll choose the former every time. The difference is that the $500 guy learned the value of money and how it affects your mindset, while the $200,000 guy could afford to lose a lot, and probably learned nothing.

No doubt. The hardest thing to do is turn 500 into 5,000, its really hard betting with crap money.

thaskalos
11-14-2014, 06:56 PM
If your bankroll isn't liquid, then you have no bankroll. there are lots of people who have "assets" but no operating money. The key is a combination of operating capital and cash flow. It's the same in any business on the planet.

Show me a guy that took $500 and turned it into $1000 over a few months, and a guy that took $200,000 and turned it into $400,000 in the same time period, and I'll choose the former every time. The difference is that the $500 guy learned the value of money and how it affects your mindset, while the $200,000 guy could afford to lose a lot, and probably learned nothing.

There is a flip side to this argument. The guy who is nursing the $500 bankroll might THINK that he knows what "pressure" is...but he really doesn't. There is nothing unusual about a guy turning $500 into a $1,000 at the track...even the LOSING players have done this many times. In 1982, I turned $800 into $35,000...and it only took me from April to October. It meant nothing...nor did I learn anything. The REAL lessons were taught from then on...

Do you think that the player who turned the $500 into a $1,000 could be depended upon to turn $200,000 into $400,000?

thaskalos
11-14-2014, 06:57 PM
No doubt. The hardest thing to do is turn 500 into 5,000, its really hard betting with crap money.

If it's so hard...then how is it that I've been able to do it many times? I'm nothing special, I assure you...

Stillriledup
11-14-2014, 07:08 PM
If it's so hard...then how is it that I've been able to do it many times? I'm nothing special, I assure you...

its a lot easier to turn 5,000 in to 500.

Dark Horse
11-14-2014, 07:45 PM
Show me a guy that took $500 and turned it into $1000 over a few months, and a guy that took $200,000 and turned it into $400,000 in the same time period, and I'll choose the former every time. The difference is that the $500 guy learned the value of money and how it affects your mindset, while the $200,000 guy could afford to lose a lot, and probably learned nothing.

Not quite. I would love to see the guy who turned 500 into a 1000 bet the same percentage of BR at the 200K level.

thaskalos
11-14-2014, 07:47 PM
Not quite. I would love to see the guy who turned 500 into a 1000 bet the same percentage of BR at the 200K level.
:ThmbUp:

Easier said than done.

raybo
11-14-2014, 08:49 PM
Ok, I get both of your points, I suppose it was a bad scenario. What I was really getting at is that the guy who started with 200k in bankroll is much more likely to make stupid bets. And, if he turned that 200k into 400k it might just be a case of having enough money to get into the exotics in a big way and get lucky with a couple. That says very little of what he might end up with after time. The $500 guy doesn't have that luxury, and is much more likely to have "earned" that doubling of bankroll.

To answer Gus about what the $500 guy might do with $200k? If he/she didn't start out with that kind of bankroll, but eventually reached that level, then he/she is one good player and I would assume he/she gained the ability to wager larger and larger amounts along the way. So, I would also assume he/she would be able to handle betting larger amounts.

There's a lot to be said for paying your dues. Much is learned, and experienced, along the way.

davew
11-14-2014, 08:55 PM
The more money you can risk, the greater your advantage. Since I moved my bets to playing pick 6 and pick 5, I am up over 70k in 2 months. I always played $100 bets in those pools. Now I play 1000 in pick 5 and $3k in pick 6. Hit 2 p6 and many pick 5. Sometimes having them multipletimes. As soon as a 15 to one wins, all the small tics are dust. When your up 70k its easy to bet 1k a race. THATS THE TRICK. IN ALL FACETS OF LIFE ITS THE SAME . The guy with more money will get more and the little guy gets screwed. A guy with 400k can make 100 k flipping a house in a few months. Ect... little guy has no way to get into it. I am 100 percent sure your pick six group if you ever had done it would have been leveraging plenty of muscle. I dont even think you need that great a handicapper..

I have periodically placed minimum bets with twinspires players pool, and even though they throw $10K, $15K, $25K at big carry-overs, they do not kill it very often. Most of the time each ticket (that day) returns under half purchase cost. So they have not learned your trick yet.

Stillriledup
11-14-2014, 08:57 PM
I have periodically placed minimum bets with twinspires players pool, and even though they throw $10K, $15K, $25K at big carry-overs, they do not kill it very often. Most of the time each ticket (that day) returns under half purchase cost. So they have not learned your trick yet.

They're terrible for the amount of money they invest. They should hit a lot more bets with that kind of outlay.

Dark Horse
11-14-2014, 09:58 PM
There's a lot to be said for paying your dues. Much is learned, and experienced, along the way.

Isn't gambling ideally set up for paying one's dues? Imagine a job where you didn't get paid, but had to pay instead, for making one mistake.

The beauty of such an unforgiving setup is that it can bring out a heightened state of awareness. If there's one thing that sets winning players apart from losing players it is a readiness to learn from mistakes and never stop doing so. That's what makes it fun in the long run.

raybo
11-14-2014, 10:47 PM
Isn't gambling ideally set up for paying one's dues? Imagine a job where you didn't get paid, but had to pay instead, for making one mistake.

The beauty of such an unforgiving setup is that it can bring out a heightened state of awareness. If there's one thing that sets winning players apart from losing players it is a readiness to learn from mistakes and never stop doing so. That's what makes it fun in the long run.

Agree! Experiencing the game, with all the ups and downs, hot streaks and cold streaks, all the random crap that happens every day, etc., is great ground for walking, some just try to run instead. To each his/her own.

Poindexter
11-14-2014, 11:05 PM
I have periodically placed minimum bets with twinspires players pool, and even though they throw $10K, $15K, $25K at big carry-overs, they do not kill it very often. Most of the time each ticket (that day) returns under half purchase cost. So they have not learned your trick yet.

I believe there is a tendency for small players to think that having a huge bankroll to attack pick sixes is the panacea. It is not. There is no question that it is preferred. There have been many pick 4's at Balmoral just over the last few months that I missed because I try to keep my plays under $200 and at times it would have take a $400 or $500 or even $600. play to pull down a $4000 pick 4 here and a $12,000 pick 4 there.......On the other hand there are times it comes back $72 that I hit on a $150 play and would not have hit any more times on a $600 play. But even big players are subject to big problems. You overlook(either underrate or do not use at all) a horse that you should not have and he beats you, you are screwed. You make a live 3-1 shot a "C" choice and he wins, you are screwed. We all do this. I would also say that for most it would take a lot of practice to master playing playing $4000 or $5000 pick six investments regularly, let a alone the amounts the Twinspires folks are putting in. If you are playing a $200 ticket here or even a $1000 play on a big carryover situation, you are taking a shot. You start playing $5000 plays on a regular basis, you are diving into shark infested waters and you may see your bankroll chewed up into smithereens. Not saying it cannot be done effectively(of course it can), but it is a different approach that takes a lot of practice and refining to master and of course a very large bankroll.

Stillriledup
11-15-2014, 01:13 AM
I believe there is a tendency for small players to think that having a huge bankroll to attack pick sixes is the panacea. It is not. There is no question that it is preferred. There have been many pick 4's at Balmoral just over the last few months that I missed because I try to keep my plays under $200 and at times it would have take a $400 or $500 or even $600. play to pull down a $4000 pick 4 here and a $12,000 pick 4 there.......On the other hand there are times it comes back $72 that I hit on a $150 play and would not have hit any more times on a $600 play. But even big players are subject to big problems. You overlook(either underrate or do not use at all) a horse that you should not have and he beats you, you are screwed. You make a live 3-1 shot a "C" choice and he wins, you are screwed. We all do this. I would also say that for most it would take a lot of practice to master playing playing $4000 or $5000 pick six investments regularly, let a alone the amounts the Twinspires folks are putting in. If you are playing a $200 ticket here or even a $1000 play on a big carryover situation, you are taking a shot. You start playing $5000 plays on a regular basis, you are diving into shark infested waters and you may see your bankroll chewed up into smithereens. Not saying it cannot be done effectively(of course it can), but it is a different approach that takes a lot of practice and refining to master and of course a very large bankroll.

Very true, great post.

thaskalos
11-15-2014, 02:35 AM
Ok, I get both of your points, I suppose it was a bad scenario. What I was really getting at is that the guy who started with 200k in bankroll is much more likely to make stupid bets. And, if he turned that 200k into 400k it might just be a case of having enough money to get into the exotics in a big way and get lucky with a couple. That says very little of what he might end up with after time. The $500 guy doesn't have that luxury, and is much more likely to have "earned" that doubling of bankroll.

To answer Gus about what the $500 guy might do with $200k? If he/she didn't start out with that kind of bankroll, but eventually reached that level, then he/she is one good player and I would assume he/she gained the ability to wager larger and larger amounts along the way. So, I would also assume he/she would be able to handle betting larger amounts.

There's a lot to be said for paying your dues. Much is learned, and experienced, along the way.

I am reminded of CapperAl...who kept saying that he won whenever he played as a "mini-roller", but lost whenever he stepped his bets up to "low-roller" status. There is a valid reason for this failure to reproduce prior success levels when we increase our bets. Small bettors sometimes convince themselves that their $500 bankroll is as important to them as a $100,000 bankroll is to a big bettor. The theory goes that, since the $500 is all that the small bettor could afford to lose...then his smallish losses will hurt just as much as the much bigger losses will hurt the big bettor. Mistaken thinking, IMO.

$500 may be INDEED be all that the small bettor could lose at that particular time...but he knows full-well that this size bankroll could be replaced through outside means, if the need should arise. It may not be replaced easily...but it will be replaced after some time. Knowing that his bankroll could be replaced rather easily if lost, the small bettor can afford to be a lot more "creative" with his small bets than he would have been if he were making much bigger bets. It doesn't take much courage or conviction to bet $5 on a 15/1 shot...but the same cannot be said when the planned betting unit is $500. The $5 bettor loses 15 bets in a row, and considers himself a paragon of self-discipline...because he is able to keep his composure throughout. But he won't really be able to know enough about himself until he experiences such a losing streak while wagering with higher betting units. Lose 15 $500 bets in a row...and you learn about yourself pretty fast.

I respect all winners, no matter HOW much they bet...because I know how difficult this game is to beat, at ANY level. But I respect the big-betting winners more...because I know that these big bettors have dealt with the sort of adversity that the small bettor can't even fathom. Handling ADVERSITY is the real yardstick when assessing the expertise of a gambler.

raybo
11-15-2014, 04:42 AM
I am reminded of CapperAl...who kept saying that he won whenever he played as a "mini-roller", but lost whenever he stepped his bets up to "low-roller" status. There is a valid reason for this failure to reproduce prior success levels when we increase our bets. Small bettors sometimes convince themselves that their $500 bankroll is as important to them as a $100,000 bankroll is to a big bettor. The theory goes that, since the $500 is all that the small bettor could afford to lose...then his smallish losses will hurt just as much as the much bigger losses will hurt the big bettor. Mistaken thinking, IMO.

$500 may be INDEED be all that the small bettor could lose at that particular time...but he knows full-well that this size bankroll could be replaced through outside means, if the need should arise. It may not be replaced easily...but it will be replaced after some time. Knowing that his bankroll could be replaced rather easily if lost, the small bettor can afford to be a lot more "creative" with his small bets than he would have been if he were making much bigger bets. It doesn't take much courage or conviction to bet $5 on a 15/1 shot...but the same cannot be said when the planned betting unit is $500. The $5 bettor loses 15 bets in a row, and considers himself a paragon of self-discipline...because he is able to keep his composure throughout. But he won't really be able to know enough about himself until he experiences such a losing streak while wagering with higher betting units. Lose 15 $500 bets in a row...and you learn about yourself pretty fast.

I respect all winners, no matter HOW much they bet...because I know how difficult this game is to beat, at ANY level. But I respect the big-betting winners more...because I know that these big bettors have dealt with the sort of adversity that the small bettor can't even fathom. Handling ADVERSITY is the real yardstick when assessing the expertise of a gambler.

Since you upped the bet size by a factor of 100, then the bankrolls should be upped by the same factor. That means that:

The $5 bettor with a $500 bankroll loses 15 bets at $5 and loses $75, or 15% of his bankroll.

The $500 bettor with a $50,000 bankroll loses 15 bets at $500 and loses $7500, or 15% of his bankroll.

They both lose the same percentage of their bankroll, so if you can handle 15% losses with a $500 bankroll, and progress from there to having a $50,000 bankroll and lose the same 15%, it shouldn't affect you any more one way or the other. For the $5 bettor with $500 in the bank, $75 in losses isn't much, and for the $500 bettor with $50,000 in the bank, $7500 in losses isn't bad either.

But, I get your argument, that the higher your bets the more dollars you can lose, and that would affect lots of players who let the dollar loss amount bother them, rather than looking at the percentage loss of bankroll. But, the $5 bettor who worked his way up to $500 bets (by increasing his bankroll from $500 to $50,000) should have developed the proper outlook regarding bankroll versus bet size, 15% is 15% either way. If he can't handle that then he probably will never get to the $50,000 bankroll amount anyway, so there's no grounds for comparison.

Yes, a $500 bankroll can be replaced in a few months, for the average person in the average job. But, for someone with $50,000 in his bankroll, they could probably replace that amount just as easily, because they aren't the average person in the average job.

Now, if you are talking about the average "player", yes, the higher bet amounts would probably tear them up mentally and psychologically. But, then, most of those average players will never see enough bankroll to find out if they can handle it or not. The mental stress of upping their bet size will have gotten to them long before they get to $50k.

Thank goodness, I won't ever have to worry about making a $500 win bet, that to me, is insanity anyway. Why would I want to wager $500 on such a low margin play in the first place, unless I'm relying on rebates, which I never have and never will. Give me enough bankroll to afford better coverage or higher base superfecta tickets, and I'll hit a lot more superfectas, or receive a lot higher percentage of the pools.

Dark Horse
11-15-2014, 01:37 PM
:ThmbUp:

Easier said than done.


That's why Kelly has a partner. Maximum bet size is the amount we don't care losing. As soon as we do care, even a little, our clarity is affected, and thereby our decision making process.

The replaceable aspect of money lost, that you mentioned, also means that age factors in. A guy in his twenties can be more reckless, because he has plenty of time to make up for losses. But a guy in his sixties is looking at a different picture. There's little chance he'd be willing to lose his life savings.

The gambling universe is one of abstractions. We reduce the world before our eyes to abstractions, and as long as money is an abstraction as well, all is well in 'Kelly-land'. So it is very interesting to see at what point money ceases to be merely an abstraction.

thaskalos
11-15-2014, 01:41 PM
That's why Kelly has a partner. Maximum bet size is the amount we don't care losing. As soon as we do care, even a little, our clarity is affected, and thereby our decision making process.

The replaceable aspect of money lost, that you mentioned, also means that age factors in. A guy in his twenties can be more reckless, because he has plenty of time to make up for losses. But a guy in his sixties is looking at a different picture. There's little chance he'd be willing to lose his life savings.

The gambling universe is one of abstractions. We reduce the world before our eyes to abstractions, and as long as money is an abstraction as well, all is well in 'Kelly-land'. So it is very interesting to see at what point money ceases to be merely an abstraction.
All true. Many considerations come into play, in even the most seemingly simple scenarios. It seldom is just black and white.

cj
11-15-2014, 02:10 PM
The bigger your bets, the lower your prices.

riskman
11-15-2014, 03:37 PM
There are always lessons to be learned like the BC quietly changing its longstanding policy regarding the distribution of the Pick 6 on one of the biggest days of racing. This article gives the detail. http://timeformusblog.com/2014/11/09/ppov-breeders-cup-saturday-pick-6-standards/

Just another day to screw all over the horseplayers.Oh, I know it is our mistake, we should have read the rules. What a joke.

raybo
11-15-2014, 03:50 PM
The bigger your bets, the lower your prices.

Basically, that is completely true. However, depending on the actual size of our bets, and the eventual size of the pool, and how much is bet on other horses, our bet may not affect the actual payout we receive, due to the rounding that takes place and breakage. But, yes, if you are looking at decimal odds, your bet does affect those odds, depending on how many decimal points you go down to. It might not affect decimals to the tenths or hundreths, but if you go far enough down your bet does affect those lower decimal amounts. This of course, is the reason that we attempt to not "overbet" the pool, meaning we don't bet enough to affect the decimal amounts to the point that it actually lowers our payout.

But, this is also true of every other bettor in the pool, all of their bets affect the odds to some extent, so our bet may be large enough to affect our payouts in a smaller pool, but not affect our payout in a larger pool. All basic math, but math that includes a lot of unknowns, how large will the pool be in the end, and what horses are the other bettors in the pool betting on.

cj
11-15-2014, 04:11 PM
Basically, that is completely true. However, depending on the actual size of our bets, and the eventual size of the pool, and how much is bet on other horses, our bet may not affect the actual payout we receive, due to the rounding that takes place and breakage. But, yes, if you are looking at decimal odds, your bet does affect those odds, depending on how many decimal points you go down to. It might not affect decimals to the tenths or hundreths, but if you go far enough down your bet does affect those lower decimal amounts. This of course, is the reason that we attempt to not "overbet" the pool, meaning we don't bet enough to affect the decimal amounts to the point that it actually lowers our payout.

But, this is also true of every other bettor in the pool, all of their bets affect the odds to some extent, so our bet may be large enough to affect our payouts in a smaller pool, but not affect our payout in a larger pool. All basic math, but math that includes a lot of unknowns, how large will the pool be in the end, and what horses are the other bettors in the pool betting on.

My point was that if you are betting $5 a pop, you aren't changing the odds very often, almost never. If you are betting $100, that increases. If you are betting a $1,000, you almost always are. So, it is harder to double your money with big wagers than small wagers, the parimutuel system guarantees it.

JJMartin
11-15-2014, 05:14 PM
Diversification should take care of that provided you possess the proficiency needed.

raybo
11-15-2014, 05:27 PM
My point was that if you are betting $5 a pop, you aren't changing the odds very often, almost never. If you are betting $100, that increases. If you are betting a $1,000, you almost always are. So, it is harder to double your money with big wagers than small wagers, the parimutuel system guarantees it.

Correct, hopefully we all place those larger wagers late in the betting so others, of less confidence in their own abilities, don't notice the odds drop and pile on the band wagon! :lol:

raybo
11-15-2014, 05:34 PM
Diversification should take care of that provided you possess the proficiency needed.

Yes, the ability to place different wager types in the same race allows us to compound our bet amounts without significantly diminishing our returns. However, unless we are automated, regarding ticket structures and the theory behind those, we are limited to the number of bet types we can place, and the proficiency of those bet structures. It does us harm to place a bet that is not efficient and sound. Back when I went to the track, I remember seeing so many players placing all kinds of wagers, in the same race, and after it's all over, finding out that all they had left was a bunch of losing tickets. Makes a big mess on the floor, and can make a big mess of our finances and lives! As we constantly learn in our country's defense, if we spread our resources too thin, we can expect defeat.

Stillriledup
11-15-2014, 05:42 PM
Correct, hopefully we all place those larger wagers late in the betting so others, of less confidence in their own abilities, don't notice the odds drop and pile on the band wagon! :lol:

Some large bets go in early, especially on horses who are destined to be chalk-types anyway, if a horse is 2-1 ML and looks great on paper, a big bettor isn't going to have a problem sticking a few grand to win first flash making the horse 1-5. His theory is that if you like this horse too, you're going to either take 1-5 or bet someone else. Many of us bet someone else and his 1-5 drifts up accordingly late in the betting.

I think the key is that you dont want your pick to be a "good bet" with 0 MTP because many times a lot of others get the same idea and your good bet turns into a bad bet because everyone is piling on board at the load.

Instead of a "good bet" you want your horse to be "market value" or an underlay.....many times your underlay will become an overlay with the market overcorrection.

raybo
11-15-2014, 06:05 PM
Some large bets go in early, especially on horses who are destined to be chalk-types anyway, if a horse is 2-1 ML and looks great on paper, a big bettor isn't going to have a problem sticking a few grand to win first flash making the horse 1-5. His theory is that if you like this horse too, you're going to either take 1-5 or bet someone else. Many of us bet someone else and his 1-5 drifts up accordingly late in the betting.

I think the key is that you dont want your pick to be a "good bet" with 0 MTP because many times a lot of others get the same idea and your good bet turns into a bad bet because everyone is piling on board at the load.

Instead of a "good bet" you want your horse to be "market value" or an underlay.....many times your underlay will become an overlay with the market overcorrection.

I'd like to see the data to back up those statements, especially the one where the large bettor bets a "few grand to win first flash". I "think" it is much more likely that a wager of that size, on the first flash, would be highly unwise, and would motivate others to take note and place bets on the same horse, either immediately or later in the betting (I personally have never seen a "few grand" placed on a horse on the first flash, of course there probably have been some at tracks I don't play). The best we can do, is wait until the size of the pool is at its highest before wagering is ended, and try to project where the money after ours will be placed. Otherwise, we are almost certainly betting against ourselves.

I've read where you have made statements like this one many times in the past, but have never seen any proof that it is true, or common, especially in the amounts you state. Is this just your own theory, or do you know that this, in fact, is true? Let's, at least try, to stick to facts, not theory or embellishments for the sake of dramatics, or flat out supposition with no proof, unless we qualify them as such.

Saratoga_Mike
11-15-2014, 06:08 PM
I'd like to see the data to back up those statements, especially the one where the large bettor bets a "few grand to win first flash". I "think" it is much more likely that a wager of that size, on the first flash, would be highly unwise, and would motivate others to take note and place bets on the same horse, either immediately or later in the betting (I personally have never seen a "few grand" placed on a horse on the first flash, of course there probably have been some at tracks I don't play). The best we can do, is wait until the size of the pool is at its highest before wagering is ended, and try to project where the money after ours will be placed. Otherwise, we are almost certainly betting against ourselves.

I've read where you have made statements like this one many times in the past, but have never seen any proof that it is true, or common, especially in the amounts you state. Is this just your own theory, or do you know that this, in fact, is true? Let's, at least try, to stick to facts, not theory or embellishments for the sake of dramatics, or flat out supposition with no proof, unless we qualify them as such.

I think SRU's observed the action of one specific bettor at MNR (mainly MNR). At first, I thought the bettor was crazy using your exact line of reasoning cited above, but I'm not so sure anymore. The MNR bettor creates horrible value with 10 to 12 MTP, "forcing" everyone onto other horses and perhaps (in the end) creating a better price for himself.

Dan Montilion
11-16-2014, 06:53 PM
Go To The Grandstand!

teddy
11-19-2014, 11:57 PM
it was quite a good day today Won over 15000 at Gulfstream. I keyed a 1-5and the first leg of the Pick six. It was a $1000 ticket. And returned over 11,000 before the IRS took their usual cut. Yes I did have enough spread in the last leg to have the 25 to 1 shot. I will almost promise you before this year is up I will be posting a six figure win from one of these bets because I have came so close.I know close only counts in horseshoes but we can sure as hell figure that sooner or later it's going to happen with this size wagers. I would save my total bankroll is down a little bit from the original but maybe not because I have been betting other crap and not just that in the pick 5 and pick 6. I will check and let you know but it's pretty freaking obvious than just those bets with big tickets you got one hell of a shot

teddy
11-22-2014, 06:01 PM
11/22 3:12 PM Churchill Downs 6 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 3, 5, 6 / 4 / 1, 7, 8, 10, 11 / 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 / 4, 5, 9 $378.00 $0.00
11/22 3:06 PM Churchill Downs 6 $0.20 P6 (PWHL) 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 7 / 1, 7, 8, 10, 11 / 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 / 4, 5, 9, 12 $1,344.00


$20,947.28 Realy paid 30k... taxman got me for 8k...POW... THATS A KEY ON ONE HORSE TOO.... THE 7 IN THE SECOND LEG.

oh HAPPY DAY