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EMD4ME
10-26-2014, 10:21 AM
Did I miss the announcement? I looked at Wed & Thursdays cards at Aqueduct and see only 8 races. That makes me sad....

I know there's a decrease in foals but after watching NYRA consistently card ten races and many times eleven at Belmont, I am in shock that we don't have 9 races to fill on a weekday at Aqueduct.

Plus, Aqueduct is closing for ten days in December. Is Cuomo winning the battle on shutting down one of my favorite tracks to wager on???

lamboguy
10-26-2014, 10:35 AM
southern california has been at 8 races for quite some time now, northern california has 7 races many days. even Parx has had plenty of days with only 8 races, and now Mountaineer is down to 8 races where they used to have 10. when they had 10 i often found 2 or 3 races to play on a card. i like to watch the first 2 races to catch which way the bias of the track is before i bet my money. today we only have 8 races and the handle has dropped from close to $3 million down to about $1 million. it all means less races for me to play and less money to bet on those races.

as far as New York goes, i basically stopped playing there when they lowered the rebates 10 yeas ago. i have a strong suspicion that the handle there for the past Belmont meet has taken a very significant hit, while they had some execellent races.

Tom
10-26-2014, 10:35 AM
This time of year, they can't run turf sprints and probably running short on NY Bred maiden claimers. :rolleyes:

EMD4ME
10-26-2014, 11:07 AM
The lack of turf sprints didn't matter the last ten years.

I actually like NYB races. With the slot program, I don't believe the number of NYBreds racing has dropped off.

I view this as Cuomo slowly getting rid of Aqueduct and I am disgusted.

Cholly
10-26-2014, 11:35 AM
Did I miss the announcement? I looked at Wed & Thursdays cards at Aqueduct and see only 8 races. That makes me sad....

Don't be sad; be happy!

Recent years NYRA's been dark on the Wed. & Thur. of the week they move from Belmont to AQ. Racing on these two days is a bit of "langiappe", courtesy of the good folks at NYRA!

KirisClown
10-26-2014, 03:43 PM
Did I miss the announcement? I looked at Wed & Thursdays cards at Aqueduct and see only 8 races. That makes me sad....

I know there's a decrease in foals but after watching NYRA consistently card ten races and many times eleven at Belmont, I am in shock that we don't have 9 races to fill on a weekday at Aqueduct.


In January and February of 1994 they ran SEVEN races a day at Aqueduct... everyone survived. We'll get through this one too...

lamboguy
10-26-2014, 05:57 PM
In January and February of 1994 they ran SEVEN races a day at Aqueduct... everyone survived. We'll get through this one too...
correct me if i am wrong, wasn't that when there wasn't co-mingling of simulcast pools and they had a bunch of races coming from Gulfstream and then Hialeah?

KirisClown
10-26-2014, 06:45 PM
correct me if i am wrong, wasn't that when there wasn't co-mingling of simulcast pools and they had a bunch of races coming from Gulfstream and then Hialeah?

I believe you are correct on the co-mingling. I think they were taking maybe 5 races from the Florida Tracks..

I remember it being a thrill to bet the out of town races..

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 12:06 AM
There are 9 on Friday :) :) :)

Whew... things are hopefully back to normal & the 8 race cards were because they opened 2 days earlier this year.

Spiderman
10-27-2014, 07:29 AM
There may be an abbreviated card on Saturday in deference to the BC. I've looked all cards, Wednesday to Friday at AQ and have an found an interest to play any of the races.

Robert Goren
10-27-2014, 08:01 AM
Did I miss the announcement? I looked at Wed & Thursdays cards at Aqueduct and see only 8 races. That makes me sad....

I know there's a decrease in foals but after watching NYRA consistently card ten races and many times eleven at Belmont, I am in shock that we don't have 9 races to fill on a weekday at Aqueduct.

Plus, Aqueduct is closing for ten days in December. Is Cuomo winning the battle on shutting down one of my favorite tracks to wager on???AQU has in recent years, maybe always shut down from Christmas to New Years.
If you think it is bad now, wait until they move to the inner. You would think with purses they offer, NYRA should be able to attract more entrants. You would think the horse shortage would effect the smaller tracks more than it does AQU. There is clearly something going on when trainers would rather run for less money at smaller tracks in roughly the same area. Is it a problem of not having enough stalls? It has to be something.

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 08:04 AM
AQU has in recent years, maybe always shut down from Christmas to New Years.
If you think it is bad now, wait until they move to the inner. You would think with purses they offer, NYRA should be able to attract more entrants. You would think the horse shortage would effect the smaller tracks more than it does AQU. There is clearly something going on when trainers would rather run for less money at smaller tracks in roughly the same area. Is it a problem of not having enough stalls? It has to be something.

Maybe it's because there's no real grandstand before the finish line to watch their horses run? :confused:

As a fan, I know I hate that.

the little guy
10-27-2014, 11:07 AM
It's funny, the OP of this thread was able to do all sorts of navigating of the internet in the past, yet going to the, apparently, mysterious nyra.com and checking the condition book to see how many races will be run on certain days has proven an impossible task. :D

the little guy
10-27-2014, 11:11 AM
It took a while, throw in two minutes to help my Mom with something, but I was able to see that there will be nine races run on Saturday.

I forgot to add, at least this thread allowed Big Bad Bobby Goren a chance to take a gratuitous shot at NYRA. :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 07:04 PM
It's funny, the OP of this thread was able to do all sorts of navigating of the internet in the past, yet going to the, apparently, mysterious nyra.com and checking the condition book to see how many races will be run on certain days has proven an impossible task. :D

Excuse me, Andy. If you checked the date and time of this thread (being created), you would see that at that time, NYRA.com had entries available for Wednesday and Thursday only, with 8 races being shown. As you know, entries came out for Friday's card on Sunday. On Sunday, I updated the thread to reflect the fact that there are 9 races for Friday's card, not 8 (like Wed & Thur) and how happy I was to see that.

I don't appreciate your sarcasm. For someone who's in a position to grow the game, represent NYRA publicly via TV, in person and the web, you're response to me was disappointing.

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 07:10 PM
It took a while, throw in two minutes to help my Mom with something, but I was able to see that there will be nine races run on Saturday.

I forgot to add, at least this thread allowed Big Bad Bobby Goren a chance to take a gratuitous shot at NYRA. :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

I don't know if you were being sarcastic towards the fact that I make time for my mother OR if you were serious about helping yours for 2 minutes but if it was the former, that's unacceptable.

For the record, after checking the NYRA horsemen's condition book, there are no overnights or entries for Saturday's card as of 7:08 p.m. today. Were you referring to Friday's card? Should I be sarcastic to you in return?

No, I won't stoop that low.

jk3521
10-27-2014, 08:05 PM
Did I miss the announcement? I looked at Wed & Thursdays cards at Aqueduct and see only 8 races. That makes me sad....

I know there's a decrease in foals but after watching NYRA consistently card ten races and many times eleven at Belmont, I am in shock that we don't have 9 races to fill on a weekday at Aqueduct.

Plus, Aqueduct is closing for ten days in December. Is Cuomo winning the battle on shutting down one of my favorite tracks to wager on???
Could the reason possibly be that usually there are 4 days off when switching from between tracks for NYRA and this year it's just the usual 2 days off ?

Rise Over Run
10-27-2014, 08:05 PM
With the exception of the first two days of racing (Wed-Thurs of this week), Aqueduct is carding 9 races per day, even weekends, through Monday November 9th (Veterans Day). This is readily available on NYRA.com as TLG implied.

lamboguy
10-27-2014, 08:13 PM
i just noticed that starting in Aqueduct there is a new claiming rule like they have in Sourthern California. if your horse is on a long layoff you can run him back the first time at the same claiming level as he last raced in and he is ineligible to be claimed if you enter that way. the way i see it, if you want your horse to be claimed you can enter that way too. its good to know as a bettor because if he runs unprotected you have an idea that the trainer isn't that fond of the horse. the only thing about that is, i highly doubt that anyone would want to claim a horse under those circumstances.

onefast99
10-27-2014, 08:20 PM
i just noticed that starting in Aqueduct there is a new claiming rule like they have in Sourthern California. if your horse is on a long layoff you can run him back the first time at the same claiming level as he last raced in and he is ineligible to be claimed if you enter that way. the way i see it, if you want your horse to be claimed you can enter that way too. its good to know as a bettor because if he runs unprotected you have an idea that the trainer isn't that fond of the horse. the only thing about that is, i highly doubt that anyone would want to claim a horse under those circumstances.
The pre-winter drop downs have officially begun!

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 08:45 PM
Could the reason possibly be that usually there are 4 days off when switching from between tracks for NYRA and this year it's just the usual 2 days off ?

I was hoping so. That's why my thread started. And, that's why it started with a question mark. I love NYRA racing & don't want to see it reduced. Especially by the Cuomo cronies. Hence my concern.

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 08:50 PM
With the exception of the first two days of racing (Wed-Thurs of this week), Aqueduct is carding 9 races per day, even weekends, through Monday November 9th (Veterans Day). This is readily available on NYRA.com as TLG implied.

Can you kindly tell me where that is posted? I tried but couldn't find that piece of info. I checked under horsemen, entries, general info and the main page. I could not find that anywhere. Hence, my inquisitive thread. I wanted to know.

Thanks in advance.

Rise Over Run
10-27-2014, 09:13 PM
Can you kindly tell me where that is posted? I tried but couldn't find that piece of info. I checked under horsemen, entries, general info and the main page. I could not find that anywhere. Hence, my inquisitive thread. I wanted to know.

Thanks in advance.
Horseman's Area, Condition Books October 29 - November 10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=CB-AQU-20141029-20141110D

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 09:25 PM
Horseman's Area, Condition Books October 29 - November 10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=CB-AQU-20141029-20141110D

That is AWESOME! thank you VERY much. I kept clicking condition book index, instead of the proper link.

After seeing 8 races after downloading wed and Thursday's cards on formulator, I gave up and went on PA for some help.

Thanks again Rise Over Run!!!

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 09:32 PM
I don't know if you were being sarcastic towards the fact that I make time for my mother OR if you were serious about helping yours for 2 minutes but if it was the former, that's unacceptable.

For the record, after checking the NYRA horsemen's condition book, there are no overnights or entries for Saturday's card as of 7:08 p.m. today. Were you referring to Friday's card? Should I be sarcastic to you in return?

No, I won't stoop that low.

I meant to say : after checking the NYRA entries, there are no overnights or entries for Saturday's......... not NYRA horsemen's condition book.

Nevertheless, I hope you get my point. Your response was unwarranted, sarcastic, demeaning and disappointing.

Quite frankly, Rise over Run's response was the gentlemanly response I deserved and expected. Not a bash from someone in position to grow the sport.

Anyway, wish you the best Andy. Be well.

JustRalph
10-27-2014, 09:33 PM
How in hell does Cuomo have anything to do with how many races are carded?

Let alone how many horses are available

EMD4ME
10-27-2014, 09:37 PM
How in hell does Cuomo have anything to do with how many races are carded?

Let alone how many horses are available

His dad was railroaded by the then NYRA. His son holds a grudge. In my humble conspiracy opinion, his administration caused the takeout fiasco. Cost Hayward his job, hates horse racing and wants Aqueduct closed.

In a nutshell. I'm not saying it's fact. Just my fear as I don't want Aqueduct closed. I can expand if you'd like.

Tall One
10-27-2014, 10:16 PM
How in hell does Cuomo have anything to do with how many races are carded?





Cuomo..lol. I remember a bit Carson dropped in a monologue where he had a little play on words with the audience...

"Did you hear that Cuomo has announced he's running for President? Not Mario, but Perry." :D

the little guy
10-28-2014, 12:44 AM
Excuse me, Andy. If you checked the date and time of this thread (being created), you would see that at that time, NYRA.com had entries available for Wednesday and Thursday only, with 8 races being shown. As you know, entries came out for Friday's card on Sunday. On Sunday, I updated the thread to reflect the fact that there are 9 races for Friday's card, not 8 (like Wed & Thur) and how happy I was to see that.

I don't appreciate your sarcasm. For someone who's in a position to grow the game, represent NYRA publicly via TV, in person and the web, you're response to me was disappointing.


Sorry, I didn't realize you wanted me to coddle you. I'll keep that in mind going forward.

Note to self...no more fun joking with EMD4ME.

Got it....all business going forward. Sorry there was some confusion.

jk3521
10-28-2014, 08:01 AM
Try to put a :) or :lol: after each joke.

EMD4ME
10-28-2014, 08:31 AM
Sorry, I didn't realize you wanted me to coddle you. I'll keep that in mind going forward.

Note to self...no more fun joking with EMD4ME.

Got it....all business going forward. Sorry there was some confusion.

Hello Andy. I don't need coddling sir. The thread's birth was over concern for NYRA. It may be contrary to what you might believe, but I love NYRA & the thread was not originated to directly or indirectly attack NYRA, so a polite point in the correct direction from someone in your position would've been greatly appreciated.

Anyway, no hard feelings. I respect & admire your talents. Be well & keep up the good handicapping.

PaceAdvantage
10-28-2014, 01:53 PM
It's like a lovefest in here...

Ocala Mike
10-28-2014, 05:24 PM
In my humble conspiracy opinion, his administration caused the takeout fiasco.





Try to put a :) or :lol: after each joke.

jk3521
10-28-2014, 06:25 PM
It's like a lovefest in here...
The dawning of the "Age of Aquarius" :D .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9oq_IskRIg#t=40

PhantomOnTour
10-28-2014, 06:30 PM
The dawning of the "Age of Aquarius" :D .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9oq_IskRIg#t=40
Isn't it the Dawning of the Age of Aqueduct?
:p

dilanesp
10-28-2014, 06:35 PM
I don't think you have to either a fan or a critic of NYRA to understand that these sorts of cutbacks are really a bad sign.

Having said that, California tracks cut back on race days and number of races carded several years back, and all signs are that it probably helped at both Santa Anita and Del Mar, so this also isn't a time to hit the panic button either.

duncan04
10-28-2014, 06:45 PM
I don't think you have to either a fan or a critic of NYRA to understand that these sorts of cutbacks are really a bad sign.

Having said that, California tracks cut back on race days and number of races carded several years back, and all signs are that it probably helped at both Santa Anita and Del Mar, so this also isn't a time to hit the panic button either.


But I thought everyone wanted cutbacks. That is what they said would save the sport?? :bang:

the little guy
10-28-2014, 07:03 PM
All kidding aside, we normally don't run on Wednesday and Thursday this week, so we are actually running eight MORE each day than normal...not one less.

Much ado about nothing.

dilanesp
10-28-2014, 08:00 PM
But I thought everyone wanted cutbacks. That is what they said would save the sport?? :bang:

We need less races. And I continue to think that winter racing in New York is a terrible idea. I think a rational system would look something like the 1930's did, where horses raced in the warm months in New York and the cold months in Florida.

However, this is not that debate. I am sure that these cutbacks are occurring because NYRA faces a horse shortage and/or cannot profitably card more races. Nonetheless, that doesn't mean that the cutbacks may not work. I think the evidence is that cutting back on the number of races did help here in Southern California. It might work in New York too.

EMD4ME
10-28-2014, 10:14 PM
Try to put a :) or :lol: after each joke.

I wasn't kidding. Call me crazy but I believe Hayward made 1 attempt to reduce the takeout, was ignored by the state wagering board, 'got the message' of let the state make more money and was hung out to dry by Cuomo.

What a coincidence that Cuomo placed his people in a controlling position on the nyra board thereafter. It's dirty politics.

I just hope he realized that by screwing NY racing, he might lose a few votes in Florida from the Florida breeders and he stopped his initial plan of shutting down/reducing race dates in NY.

Like I said, I have no proof but it's my humble conspiracy theory.... hope I am wrong, as I love NYRA & want NY racing to thrive.

EMD4ME
10-28-2014, 10:17 PM
I don't think you have to either a fan or a critic of NYRA to understand that these sorts of cutbacks are really a bad sign.

Having said that, California tracks cut back on race days and number of races carded several years back, and all signs are that it probably helped at both Santa Anita and Del Mar, so this also isn't a time to hit the panic button either.

Less racing anywhere in any way, is a bad sign. If you card 7 races instead of 9, you will have less owners, less trainers, which leads to less foals over time. Shorter fields will occur and the same spiral will happen.

As tracks shut down, that's 1 less track that will generate new fans. Old fans are dying, who's replacing them????

EMD4ME
10-28-2014, 10:19 PM
All kidding aside, we normally don't run on Wednesday and Thursday this week, so we are actually running eight MORE each day than normal...not one less.

Much ado about nothing.

That's a good way of looking at it.

Bottom line, glad we're at nine a day & I'll take the extra 16 races!

Ocala Mike
10-28-2014, 11:24 PM
let the state make more money


.


This subject was run into the ground in earlier threads on this board. I used to be in place at NYRA as a Pari-Mutuel Examiner for NY State up until 1991, when it was decided we were no longer needed. I can assure you that, because of the way pari-mutuel taxes are calculated, the state got absolutely no additional revenue from the commission rate error. All of the additional revenue went to NYRA, OTB's, and ADW's.

andtheyreoff
10-28-2014, 11:49 PM
Less racing anywhere in any way, is a bad sign. If you card 7 races instead of 9, you will have less owners, less trainers, which leads to less foals over time. Shorter fields will occur and the same spiral will happen.

As tracks shut down, that's 1 less track that will generate new fans. Old fans are dying, who's replacing them????

Disagree completely. Look at Japan. They often have only two or three tracks going per day, maximum. Yet, handle and attendance are booming. There's only two tracks in China, which race only a few days a week combined, and racing is thriving. British and Australian tracks often run only six or seven races per day. The United States in the exception to the rule.

And I don't know about you, but I'd rather bet on three days of quality racing a week than five days of sub-par racing.

EMD4ME
10-29-2014, 06:34 AM
This subject was run into the ground in earlier threads on this board. I used to be in place at NYRA as a Pari-Mutuel Examiner for NY State up until 1991, when it was decided we were no longer needed. I can assure you that, because of the way pari-mutuel taxes are calculated, the state got absolutely no additional revenue from the commission rate error. All of the additional revenue went to NYRA, OTB's, and ADW's.

Good to know. I appreciate the feedback.

EMD4ME
10-29-2014, 06:37 AM
Disagree completely. Look at Japan. They often have only two or three tracks going per day, maximum. Yet, handle and attendance are booming. There's only two tracks in China, which race only a few days a week combined, and racing is thriving. British and Australian tracks often run only six or seven races per day. The United States in the exception to the rule.

And I don't know about you, but I'd rather bet on three days of quality racing a week than five days of sub-par racing.

I can see your point but we are not Japan or China. 2 totally different markets. There, it's ok to be at the track. Here if you tell people you're going to the track every Saturday your branded as a degenerate horseplayer. Just an example of why we're different.

There are 50 states. If 38 don't have horse racing, in my humble opinion, handle will plummet even more. As the old players pass, who will become a racing fan? There will be no live experience to give them the bug.

dilanesp
10-29-2014, 01:58 PM
Less racing anywhere in any way, is a bad sign. If you card 7 races instead of 9, you will have less owners, less trainers, which leads to less foals over time. Shorter fields will occur and the same spiral will happen.

As tracks shut down, that's 1 less track that will generate new fans. Old fans are dying, who's replacing them????

You are both right and wrong.

You are right that all of the contraction is a "bad sign", in the sense that it is an indicator of a declining sport with less fans, less owners, etc.

You are wrong in the implication that if the sport did not contract, it would be healthier.

Horse racing is like any other business in this respect. Plenty of airlines have gone into bankruptcy, consolidated, and sold off routes and flights over the last 30 years. The remaining three airlines, with significant reductions in flights and service, are now making record profits.

I'm not predicting that racetracks will start making record profits. However, the whole point of contraction is to give the remaining operations a shot at profitability. The sport is actually quite viable if there are a few supertracks supplying most of the racing to the country via simulcasting and advance deposit wagering.

That's what the economics of simulcasting suggest-- pre-simulcasting (and pre-lotteries and widespread casino gambling), the local racetrack was the only game in town and there needed to be one in each locality to offer racing. Now, given a choice between betting lousy local races and better races from a major track, bettors will choose the simulcasted races, which means we need to close a lot of local tracks and consolidate operations in 3 or 4 major circuits. That is what is happening, slowly. That will also mean fewer horses and fewer fans, but the sport will survive on betting handle in the same way there are fewer seats on airplanes but they sell for more money now.

What the shrinkage of racing at Aqueduct may (or may not) suggest is that it is possible that New York shouldn't run year round. As I said, rationally, i would think the way to do it is to run one circuit that runs in the warmer months in New York and the colder months in Florida, with year-round simulcasting in both places. I suspect, however, that what will actually happen is that New York will still run year round but won't run so many races in the winter.

But definitely the end-point of all this is a lot less live racing. We've developed a way to efficiently deliver a lot more betting action to the public, through simulcasting, with far lower costs (it's much cheaper to run a simulcasting parlor than a racetrack). That's the wave of the future, like it or not.

PaceAdvantage
10-29-2014, 02:23 PM
What the shrinkage of racing at Aqueduct may (or may not) suggest is that it is possible that New York shouldn't run year round.What shrinkage? Haven't we already established that these two eight-race cards represents MORE racing than in years past where they would be DARK on the Wednesday and Thursday during the week when they move from Belmont to Aqueduct?

the little guy
10-29-2014, 02:25 PM
What the shrinkage of racing at Aqueduct may (or may not) suggest..



I realize you're pretty out there, but the supposed "shrinkage" you are referring to is actually 16 more races than last year.

the little guy
10-29-2014, 02:27 PM
What shrinkage? Haven't we already established that these two eight-race cards represents MORE racing than in years past where they would be DARK on the Wednesday and Thursday during the week when they move from Belmont to Aqueduct?

Posted before seeing this.

There is some silly stuff on the internet...and then there's that guy.

ReplayRandall
10-29-2014, 02:49 PM
Posted before seeing this.

There is some silly stuff on the internet...and then there's that guy.


On a side note, if you could only make ONE bet out of the 13 BC races, who might that be?

wiffleball whizz
10-29-2014, 03:10 PM
On a side note, if you could only make ONE bet out of the 13 BC races, who might that be?

+1

dilanesp
10-29-2014, 03:50 PM
I realize you're pretty out there, but the supposed "shrinkage" you are referring to is actually 16 more races than last year.

I think this is a semantic / spin argument. They clearly would card more races on a card if they could. No track in America WANTS to card 8 races in a day. Not one.

I realize NYRA honks on this board would claim that there was nothing wrong even if NYRA shut all of its tracks down, but come on now.

PaceAdvantage
10-29-2014, 03:55 PM
I think this is a semantic / spin argument. They clearly would card more races on a card if they could. No track in America WANTS to card 8 races in a day. Not one.

I realize NYRA honks on this board would claim that there was nothing wrong even if NYRA shut all of its tracks down, but come on now.I guess it would have killed you to admit you weren't reading things all that closely in this thread...thus your telling us TWICE about the "cutback" at Aqueduct AFTER it was pointed out there was no cutback in place.

I admit when I'm wrong. Some people can't I suppose...oh well...gotta have some sort of image on here I guess...yours might be "I'm never wrong..." :lol:

Unome
10-29-2014, 04:01 PM
In case it hasn't been covered Friday's card has 9 races. :cool:

the little guy
10-29-2014, 05:37 PM
I think this is a semantic / spin argument. They clearly would card more races on a card if they could. No track in America WANTS to card 8 races in a day. Not one.

I realize NYRA honks on this board would claim that there was nothing wrong even if NYRA shut all of its tracks down, but come on now.


Keep fighting the dopey fight. It's great entertainment.

rastajenk
10-29-2014, 06:10 PM
But definitely the end-point of all this is a lot less live racing...through simulcasting, with far lower costs (it's much cheaper to run a simulcasting parlor than a racetrack).
Where are you going to simulcast to, if all your leaky-roof circuits go belly up? Do you think it will be easy to legislate simulcast-only facilities into existence, the sole point being to benefit the racing product in some other state? I don't see that happening.

EMD4ME
10-29-2014, 07:19 PM
You are both right and wrong.

You are right that all of the contraction is a "bad sign", in the sense that it is an indicator of a declining sport with less fans, less owners, etc.

You are wrong in the implication that if the sport did not contract, it would be healthier.

Horse racing is like any other business in this respect. Plenty of airlines have gone into bankruptcy, consolidated, and sold off routes and flights over the last 30 years. The remaining three airlines, with significant reductions in flights and service, are now making record profits.

I'm not predicting that racetracks will start making record profits. However, the whole point of contraction is to give the remaining operations a shot at profitability. The sport is actually quite viable if there are a few supertracks supplying most of the racing to the country via simulcasting and advance deposit wagering.

That's what the economics of simulcasting suggest-- pre-simulcasting (and pre-lotteries and widespread casino gambling), the local racetrack was the only game in town and there needed to be one in each locality to offer racing. Now, given a choice between betting lousy local races and better races from a major track, bettors will choose the simulcasted races, which means we need to close a lot of local tracks and consolidate operations in 3 or 4 major circuits. That is what is happening, slowly. That will also mean fewer horses and fewer fans, but the sport will survive on betting handle in the same way there are fewer seats on airplanes but they sell for more money now.

What the shrinkage of racing at Aqueduct may (or may not) suggest is that it is possible that New York shouldn't run year round. As I said, rationally, i would think the way to do it is to run one circuit that runs in the warmer months in New York and the colder months in Florida, with year-round simulcasting in both places. I suspect, however, that what will actually happen is that New York will still run year round but won't run so many races in the winter.

But definitely the end-point of all this is a lot less live racing. We've developed a way to efficiently deliver a lot more betting action to the public, through simulcasting, with far lower costs (it's much cheaper to run a simulcasting parlor than a racetrack). That's the wave of the future, like it or not.

I appreciate your thoughts.

I believe, respectfully, you are missing a huge key point. Let's assume in 1995, about the time of simulcasting starting, that there were 800,000 "horseplayers" in the 50 states.

Let's assume that no tracks closed since then and 300,000 passed away.

Let's also assume that 50,000 new loyal fans were born (all via visiting live horse tracks).

Let's again assume that In 2014, only 550,000 active loyal fans exist. Let's assume handle dropped from 20 billion to 13 billion from 1995-2014.

The accuracy of my numbers are irrelevant as I'm sure those numbers are down, how much is irrelevant to the point....

Fast forward ten additional years. Its 2024. 40% of tracks have 'contracted'.

It's highly (like 1/5 highly) probable to assume the following:

300,000 of those 550,000 loyal fans passed away.

Only 30,000 new fans were born. 280,000 loyal fans are left.

Syndicates flee horse racing as the pools have dropped precipitously.


Handle drops another 75% to near nothing.

Owners leave the game. Trainers leave the game.

Game over.

Still think contraction is "good" for the game?

EMD4ME
10-29-2014, 07:20 PM
I realize you're pretty out there, but the supposed "shrinkage" you are referring to is actually 16 more races than last year.

Dilanesp, did you even read what we discussed in this thread?

EMD4ME
10-29-2014, 07:21 PM
Where are you going to simulcast to, if all your leaky-roof circuits go belly up? Do you think it will be easy to legislate simulcast-only facilities into existence, the sole point being to benefit the racing product in some other state? I don't see that happening.

Exactly........

Tom
10-29-2014, 09:32 PM
Keep fighting the dopey fight. It's great entertainment.

He has four important points he wants to make first.

RXB
10-30-2014, 03:11 PM
Where are you going to simulcast to, if all your leaky-roof circuits go belly up? Do you think it will be easy to legislate simulcast-only facilities into existence, the sole point being to benefit the racing product in some other state? I don't see that happening.

Good post.