SoCal or NY

[Valuist]

Which is better to wager on?

I'm debating switching from playing New York to SoCal for several reasons. First, I get tired of the off tracks that New York seems to get so much of. Last years spring Bel meet was seemingly run in a lake. Second, the fields at Aqu have been disappointingly small this year. I know Hol has a reputation for small fields but they haven't seemed to be as bad this year. Third, the early start. I like to finish up my weekend handicapping in the morning and never end up betting the first 2 races in the Eastern time zone (I'm on Central time) because I'm usually not ready.

On the negative side to switching, I've done well betting Saratoga over the years and poorly at Del Mar. But that's more likely due to the time I've spent studying NY as opposed to Dmr. Also when you bet GP, Kee or CD, you already know a good number of horses who will be shipping to Bel or Sar.

I will not bet both circuits. I already play the Chicago tracks 10 months a year, the major Kentucky tracks and GP in the winter. I'm curious to hear feedback from those who bet both NY and SoCal.

[Parlay_Pete]

I have followed NY and SoCal for about 10 years. I enjoy both circuits especially Saratoga and Del Mar. I began publishing a website for NY racing but have recently switched to the SoCal circuit due to one overriding factor....time! The later posts allow me more time to handicap and post to my site. I also get to see live racing from California on TVG when I get home from work as opposed to seeing the replays from NY.

The fields have been great at Hollywood so far this meet and they were just terrible later in the meet at Aqu. I have never really did well at Belmont so I am concentrating on Hollywood 100% right now. Del Mar will be my major track come July with the Saratoga stakes races getting some attention.

Please visit my site dedicated to SoCal racing at:
SoCal Racing Journal (http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1v97a)

[Valuist]

Pete-

You're right about the time factor. I'm from the old fashioned school--no software--so it takes a little longer to handicap w/the DRF, a pen and highlighter, so the later posts are a big help.

I just saw the opening day Bel entries. Its a tremendous weekday card. Then I see CD's. Maybe I should dump Kentucky instead.

[alysheba88]

From May through November I think New York provides the best racing in the country. Dont go by last years awful spring weather.

[The Hawk]

For day-in-day-out racing, NYRA is the most overrated in the country. There are sometimes decent races on the weekends (like all major meets) but a good percentage of the stakes attrack small fields and the weekday cards are usually awful. Then add in numerous races off the turf, a relatively large percentage of statebred races, precipitous odds drops in more races than anywhere else, high "juice" quotient, etc. Plus, the fact that so many think it's so fantastic means a lot of other people are making figures and taking trip notes, which negates your edge some. The same goes for Southern California, of course, but at least you won't have to deal with the above problems.

[alysheba88]

The Hawk, you think the fields are smaller in NY compared to So Cal?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Some have heard this from me before, but watch Hollywood for sudden slow tracks, especially on Sundays. I do not play So. Ca. on Sundays for that reason.
DM was the track that raan very fast the first week and early speed did very well. The rest of the meet was a slow track.
So. Ca. I have found in the past, occasional $10.00+ payoffs on the weekends.

[TravisVOX]

With the horses returning from Gulfstream now, the NYRA circuit is sure to heat up. It has the best turf courses in the country...nice sweeping turns. The racing at times could be better, but you always get those odd days at whatever track you might following.

Do you do additional homework, or just handicap? Such as key races, figs etc.?

[Valuist]

Yeah I do the additional work. Key races, trip notes for turf races, I do my own figs for the Chicago tracks.

Ken- do you suppose some of the maintenance crew is off on Sundays? There's a seminar on the T-Graph site where he shows how differently SA and GP watered their tracks on different days.

[Jeff P]

Both circuits get plenty of attention. As a result, there is plenty of smart money making its way into the pools of each. That said, I prefer NYRA over SOCAL simply because of the lower takeout (14 percent vs 15.43 percent) on straight wagers. After all, 1.4 percent is 1.4 percent. Oddly enough, from a time perspective I like the idea of finishing my day earlier. I live on the west coast. Right now can't think of anything I'd rather do than hit the beach after that last east coast race is official.

[cj]

I find SoCal and NY are my best tracks, by a large margin. I wouldn't pick one over the other, but specifically Hollywood and Belmont are huge for me. The bettors aren't as smart as they are made out to be. I'd rather dive in those pools any day than try to figure out a card at Mountaineer or any Kentucky track!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will just say I think crews work 7 days a week and So. Ca. crews are among the top at maintaining the tracks as officials desire. See Equibase Hollywood works or race times for various days of the week.

[Valuist]

NY has the edge in win betting takeout, but SoCal has a big edge in the P3 and tri takeout, 20.18% to 25%. That is a big plus for SoCal.

[brdman12]

I live in the central time zone also. Playing the east coast racks becomes more difficult. However..

I quit playing win and place bets about a year ago because of the low odds on horses I was choosing. I play exacta only now, with an occasiona trifecta and finally found some profitability. My point is...

The average exacta pay average is very low on Calif. tracks. Aqueducts average exactas are very high in comparison. It seems to me there is more value on the east coast. Don't know about Belmont yet, and who knows about Arlington...but I go where the exacta averages are and play there.

One clarification: These averages change daily and have to be monitored closely, but West coast payouts have remained very small by my accounting.

I like..in this order...Lonestar..Indiana Downs..Philadelphia..Aqueduct

[Valuist]

Maybe it was the bigger fields causing those exacta payouts but the takeout on exotic wagers is higher in New York than Southern Cal.

[The Hawk]

I absolutely agree that the fields in Southern California are also small but to me, having watched both circuits closely for the last few years, the Southern Cal product is much more bettable in general. Just my opinion, but the percentage of odds-on winners in NY seems to be much higher, and those are the kind of races that make short fields unplayable. The fields in California are, generally speaking, more evenly matched, it seems to me.

[cato]

I am just a casual player, but I have had better success at the NY tracks. I wish it were different because I really dislike the time difference and the unpredictable weather; and the thing that is MOST IRRITATING is that about 1/4 of the field scratches about every other race which complicates the night before or morning of handicapping:mad:

Cato

[Tom]

I prefer smaller tracks - Pen,Del,FL,EMD,etc. SA is the worst excuse for a track I have ever seen and I just do not think much of Aqu or Bel - one turn route race to me are bush league. Different strokes, but NYRA is more of an annoyance to me than anything else. And the inner track would make a nice parking lot, IMHO. LOL

[TravisVOX]

Tom how do you find the smaller tracks playable? I'm working Mountaineer tonight, and I find myself throwing the dart as to what horse is gonna do it. Do you have a rule of thumb that you follow?

[Valuist]

Tom I agree 100% on the inner dirt. I have been playing NYRA--from March thru November. I never bother with that inner dirt. One thing I like about it is all the phony speed figs that come out of there. CJ had mentioned cutting 5 points off Kee figs; I'd say trim 10-15 pts off any inner dirt number.

[BIG RED]

I play both, makes for a nice raceday. 1pm-9pm. Cal I used to love but the feilds are much smaller than usual, and NY is tough during the winter. Now is my favorite time of year!

[Tom]

Originally posted by TravisVOX
Tom how do you find the smaller tracks playable? I'm working Mountaineer tonight, and I find myself throwing the dart as to what horse is gonna do it. Do you have a rule of thumb that you follow?

I use a method Tom Brohamer suggested in a seminar a few years back-draw a line through every race not like today's race, say today is a 6 furlong dirt sprint for a claiming tag. Out wiht all routes, turf, allowance, etc. Exception-in routes, if the horse up close at the pace call, I only cross out the last two calls-this might be a clue to hidden form.
Now I just look at the speed figures of the sinilar races and decide who could win this race if they run back to their better numbers. I don't get too concerned about recent races, just what each horse can do when in shape. I thorw out horse who are just too slow on thier best day.
Now, I look for class dropers first. Class droppers at Pen, FL, etc, can be expected to improve recent figures. I look for class manuvers, too-say last race was 5,000 open, today's race is 6500 NW1,9 months. This is drop for me.
I look for "tired" horses - more than 5 races in the last 100 days is a big negative for me. I love throwing out the favorites with the highest last out speed figures if they have been over raced.
I like horse that have been freshened and are coming back in their second or third or fourth start. I like distance switches, equipment changes, recent works, anything that might be a clue that the horse is going to run back to his numbers today.
If I think a horse is going to improve today, I will select pacelines from his better races and then let the velocity match ups take care of seperating them.
With cheaper horses, you have to expect that they will bounce in and out of shape-beware short prices on horse who are look sharp but might be over-used.
Using the sheets type numbers is helpful-I use the HTR version which only show the last 10 races, not lifetime performances, but that is enough. I like to see the figure pattern starting to go to the left, indicating improvement- often this is disguised by a pro finish in highe class, but the numbers are what count, not finish positions or lengths beaten.
Be creative in selecting both your contenders and and pacelines-the work is not only worth it, it is fun.
Sometime you will get beat by horses that make you go "HUH????" You just have to shrug it off and move on to the next race.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by TravisVOX
Tom how do you find the smaller tracks playable? I'm working Mountaineer tonight, and I find myself throwing the dart as to what horse is gonna do it. Do you have a rule of thumb that you follow?

Mountaineer is about Trainers scoring......that is it. follow the trainers and you will win more at MNR. But it takes a lot of time to do it right.........that's why I never play there anymore. The more you know about capping the harder it is to play the mountain. there are some who seem to love it........not this guy.....

[maxwell]

I play only the SoCal circuit as I don't have the time or patience for mud or huge fields with more scratches than runners.

N.Y used to drive me around the bend with multiple entries ( 1a, 2b, etc.) and an a.e. list longer than my arm.

I cringe at the poor Md clm. races out West but at least it doesn't take long to 'cap them :confused:

[brdman12]

Very interesting. We all see things a little differently. I see the last few days Moutaineer has averaged around $150 per exacta, while Pimlico averaged around $20, and Bay Meadows around$40. I will be taking a long look at Mountaineer this weekend, as that number is very high for any track.