Hudson 150k - Bel Race 10

[PhantomOnTour]

One heck of a race lined up.
Eleven NY breds entered, including a few who have run well vs GrStks foes.

Two immediate win players are :4: Weekend Hideaway and :5: Big Business

The former will have serious pace pressure to withstand and still persevere for the win.
The latter may get a dream set up and pick them up.
Neither will offer much value.

I will look to a few late runners that may offer value, and try to get them into the exotics.
This race has many E/P types (although the #4 looks the quickest of the quick) and the 6.5f distance should bring casualties.

:2: West Hills Giant has been a lil pet favorite of mine, and I will try him again if the price is right. With the expected pace and a good ride he can get some. Last two times he went turf to dirt with a slight cutback he ran well, and has a solid record on dirt vs NY breds. Don't think he's good enough to win but can surely get a piece. Weight shift from #4 compared to the last time they met.....ML 12-1 is okay with me.
:11: Crafty Dreamer may be a bit of a stretch, but if he is kept in a stalking/midpack spot he may get some also. Loves Bel, working lights out, has a few back races that are good enough for an exotics slot.

Tough race - who ya' got ?

[PhantomOnTour]

No dice - let a strong and obvious contender get away from me in the #7.
He took it to them from the bell and got away with reasonable fractions, game over.

[Tall One]

No dice - let a strong and obvious contender get away from me in the #7.
He took it to them from the bell and got away with reasonable fractions, game over.


Serling liked the :7: , but I didnt care for the way he was coming into this one. I went with the Captain (again :bang: ) but despite his less than stellar 2nd off effort, if he draws inside next time, might be worth a second look.

[PhantomOnTour]

Serling liked the :7: , but I didnt care for the way he was coming into this one. I went with the Captain (again :bang: ) but despite his less than stellar 2nd off effort, if he draws inside next time, might be worth a second look.
I took a long look at that #7, and he had the numbers to do exactly what he did on Saturday...but he just had "that look" in my opinion.
That look of a runner who would contend early and back off due to a fast and contested pace. Never happened - he was strong and basically kicked their ass.
Good pick by Andy, and he got a nice price at about 5-1.

[raybo]

Yeah, the 7 was definitely a win contender, and the 5 wasn't out of reach for 2nd and the exacta ($71.50).

Here's what the Black Box showed for that race (this is the "Remote Devices" view which is a smaller footprint than the normal BB view):

[Tall One]

I took a long look at that #7, and he had the numbers to do exactly what he did on Saturday...but he just had "that look" in my opinion.
That look of a runner who would contend early and back off due to a fast and contested pace. Never happened - he was strong and basically kicked their ass.
Good pick by Andy, and he got a nice price at about 5-1.


Definitely a :ThmbUp: to TLG...

And I gave him that look, but I just didnt "see it." My elementary figs I use showed he definitely had a chance, but i was blinded by the :10:, and thought the :7: would get caught up early, but still hold on late.

Redboard or not, here was my tri play:

:10: /:2: :3: :5: /:2: :3: :5: :7:


I believe what I should've done was spend a little more time scrutinizing the pace in the :7: 's last race, and how does it factor today.

[Tall One]

Looking back at the Equibase pp's I use:

Four works since last.

Back to back 5F moves, including back to back bullets.

Fastest half mile at today's distance (:44.88) last out.


Wired a six horse field in a 6F S.B. stake on a "Good" inner track 01/16/14.

07/05, led to the stretch in the 7F BEL Sprint , and ends up running 4th outta nine losing by 6 1/2

08/15, at today's distance, runs 5th, outta nine, beat by 2 1/2, after battling for lead until the stretch..finished behind WH, BB, WHG all 1-2-3.

Now, that aside, when I was studying this race Friday, and Saturday, I saw a horse that will battle for the lead, but may or may not be able to hold on again today. I had the :4: :6: :9: and :10: with higher EP numbers than the :7: but i MISSED that :44 and change 1/2 until this evening.. :faint: