PERSONAL HANDICAPPING MEANS, METHODS, DATA, TOOLS

[PIC6SIX]

I would like to know what cappers, especially those who enter contests like NTRA, Vegas contests and online contests, use to do their capping. How many use workout reports, commercial handicapping vendor products, i.e., trainer reports, HTR Programs, computer programs, Trackmaster, commercial speed figures, Ragozin Sheets and etcetera. I am old school and just trying to determine if there is a better way.

[workharder]

Agreed so much info out there. . Hard to tell what's most accurate. For the most part I hear drf forms are the best. And that what I use. But I heard some people say equibase is the best

[appistappis]

daily racing form and a pen.

[thaskalos]

The big difference isn't in the tools. It's in the user.

[PIC6SIX]

I have been playing more than 45 years using pen and pencil and read all the books anyone can name Taulbot, Ainslie, Maul, Beyer, yada yada yada. I have had a few big hits over the years. Now I play a lot of online contests. Recently, after returning from a European vacation, I cannot pick a winner. At the same time I see some contest player hitting 6 of 8 races all at 5:1 and over. Luck plays a part in this game but maybe I am out of touch with the cyber world if that is the better way to analyse the races now???????? Your comments appreciated.

[clemkadiddle]

The only professional (an old-timer that passed away 30 years ago) I ever knew told me that you have stay on top of racing everyday. He told me that racing "changes"...what works today might not work tomorrow. Only by staying on top of it can you begin to anticipate the "change" and adjust to it.

He never did elaborate much after that. He said that if I put the work into it that I need to succeed, I will see what he meant.

Personally, I still don't know what he meant. Trainers use all sorts of things like shifts in distance, surface, track condition, class, etc. to see where their charges are best suited to compete and hopefully win.

Everyone has "hot" streaks and "cold" streaks. Perhaps you are in the "cold" streak. When that happens to me, I stop playing for awhile. I read my books again and start applying myself to the races that I played to see where I went wrong.

One also has to develop a "feel" for horse flesh. For example, winning is an all-out effort that is difficult to repeat, yet many of us finding ourselves backing the repeat winner and losing time and time again. Oh...we occasionally cash a ticket but overall this becomes a losing proposition.

We also don't try to "stay within" our element. Said differently, to select specific races based on personal comfort level. For me, I only choose dirt races of 8 to 10 furlongs with a field that is chiefly portrayed by races of the same type. I stay out when I see significant class drops because they can go either way. Also signs that can be troublesome are turf to dirt switches and horses returning from a significant time on the bench (which will benefit front runners).

Lastly, I would say that you need to develop your own "pace calculation method" because pace does make the race. Try to isolate each discernible segment of the race to get a feel for when the horse is speeding up or slowing down as well as looking for that high volume pace segment that winds into a natural slowing down. Only then will you get a feel for what really goes on in the race and that you will also understand while I stick to dirt "middle routes" (as stamina in the late stages is important).

Word of caution: Beyer Speed Figures and BRIS speed figures differ greatly in how they are calculated and are based on the theory of "parallel time" which I consider as flawed. I do use them however to calculate the track variant. I have also found that figures generated on a dirt track with a "sy" racing condition can be discounted 90% and should only be used when there is no other choice.

Hope this helps...

[Redboard]

Many successful cappers study video religiously, I believe. You have to examine each trip to see if there was a reason for a bad performance. Think Shared Belief in the BCC. And as Clem mentioned, pace figures are important. I've heard many people rave about the LPs and EPs. Although I just use the standard DRF myself, I've never had the urge or need to spend a lot of time on it.
Maybe if you explained exactly what you use now, you might get more suggestions from more experienced punters about how to improve.

[Sinner369]

There is no right or wrong answer.......like some of the replies above me I have read most of the books, videos and lectures on handicapping and I know most of the theories.

But I do know that you have to develop your own "system"......your own way of handicapping.......if you are not successful then you have to modify (change) "your system".

And there is no perfect system.....you just have to modify or add to your way of handicapping.......constantly.

[Milkshaker]

About 25 years ago as a beginning enthusiast I made speed figures, largely according to Andy Beyer's methods. Although I now look back on those figures and realize how crude my efforts were, I still, to this day, see great value in hunkering down with a race meet's worth of charts, different colored pens, and several legal pads to sift through to see what pops up. Often, you find tidbits of value that weren't even vaguely related to what you were looking for in the first place.

I guess my point is that today, there are faster, more streamlined ways to glean useful data and make speed (or pace or whatever) figures. But when you go the "modern" route (ie running a computerized query through a database) instead of "doing it by hand" with old school pen & paper & charts, you are trading the benefit of quick calculations at the expense of missing out on other useful nuggets.

Today I am almost exclusively a trainer-pattern player. Although I respect that other 'cappers use speed/pace figures with great results, I have little daily use for figures today. I can, however, directly trace my interest in trainer patterns to my time spent engaged in the discipline of digging through charts (pdf charts are what I use now) that I cultivated back when I was a wannabe figure-maker.

And I'm sure guys who use database handicapping will bring up the point that time spent NOT having to dig through charts is time better spent applying skills elsewhere. That is a valid point. Just stating what has worked for me.

[mishka]

Is it your handicapping which is the issue, or is it the bets you are making? It seems to be very common to read posters who say they are good handicappers but can't structure good bets. Good bets don't necessarily come automatically, naturally and innately from good handicapping. Maybe you are actually a good handicapper but the betting end may need to be worked on.

[Some_One]

Is it your handicapping which is the issue, or is it the bets you are making? It seems to be very common to read posters who say they are good handicappers but can't structure good bets. Good bets don't necessarily come automatically, naturally and innately from good handicapping. Maybe you are actually a good handicapper but the betting end may need to be worked on.

That person is just lying to themselves about their handicapping skill.

[Stillriledup]

The only professional (an old-timer that passed away 30 years ago) I ever knew told me that you have stay on top of racing everyday. He told me that racing "changes"...what works today might not work tomorrow. Only by staying on top of it can you begin to anticipate the "change" and adjust to it.

He never did elaborate much after that. He said that if I put the work into it that I need to succeed, I will see what he meant.

Personally, I still don't know what he meant. Trainers use all sorts of things like shifts in distance, surface, track condition, class, etc. to see where their charges are best suited to compete and hopefully win.

Everyone has "hot" streaks and "cold" streaks. Perhaps you are in the "cold" streak. When that happens to me, I stop playing for awhile. I read my books again and start applying myself to the races that I played to see where I went wrong.

One also has to develop a "feel" for horse flesh. For example, winning is an all-out effort that is difficult to repeat, yet many of us finding ourselves backing the repeat winner and losing time and time again. Oh...we occasionally cash a ticket but overall this becomes a losing proposition.

We also don't try to "stay within" our element. Said differently, to select specific races based on personal comfort level. For me, I only choose dirt races of 8 to 10 furlongs with a field that is chiefly portrayed by races of the same type. I stay out when I see significant class drops because they can go either way. Also signs that can be troublesome are turf to dirt switches and horses returning from a significant time on the bench (which will benefit front runners).

Lastly, I would say that you need to develop your own "pace calculation method" because pace does make the race. Try to isolate each discernible segment of the race to get a feel for when the horse is speeding up or slowing down as well as looking for that high volume pace segment that winds into a natural slowing down. Only then will you get a feel for what really goes on in the race and that you will also understand while I stick to dirt "middle routes" (as stamina in the late stages is important).

Word of caution: Beyer Speed Figures and BRIS speed figures differ greatly in how they are calculated and are based on the theory of "parallel time" which I consider as flawed. I do use them however to calculate the track variant. I have also found that figures generated on a dirt track with a "sy" racing condition can be discounted 90% and should only be used when there is no other choice.

Hope this helps...

I love this post, its really interesting to hear a horseplayer make comments that the game was changing in the 1970s or 1980s when he told you this, i completely agree that things have changed in the way you need to approach horseflesh evaluation in the last decade, and if you just stick with what works, it will eventually change on you. The key is to not lose all your money before you figure what changed.

[Charli125]

For me personally, and I play in a lot of contests, I use several tools. Basically the same tools I use in my every day betting.

Jcapper: This is a database software that imports past performance data, builds a database of that data, and allows me to query and create models to highlight horses that offer positive ROI bets. It's not a black box or anything, but it cuts down on research I want to do, and enables me to cut down on the daily handicapping I do since my models will clearly show me why I should be interested in the horse, and what I can expect in terms of ROI.

TimeformUS PP's: I think these are the best PP's in the business, and I use them, along with my report from the above software in all of my daily betting.

Workout Reports: I started using workout reports in CA since it was a circuit I wasn't playing, yet it was on almost every contest. Personally I think Toby Turrell and Donald Harris do a great job on the CA circuit. Bruno does a good job on NY and KY.

Video: I use video more for contests since there's a limited number of races I need to watch. Wouldn't be worth my time in my every day betting, though I use it on my bigger plays above a certain unit level.

The only variance between daily handicapping and contest handicapping, is the amount of video I watch, and that's only for the bigger dollar contests. I find it works best to stick with what you know as opposed to changing up your strategy for a tournament. While you'll most likely be looking for bigger prices in a tournament, the same basic handicapping methods you normally use should suffice.

[Charli125]

Today I am almost exclusively a trainer-pattern player. Although I respect that other 'cappers use speed/pace figures with great results, I have little daily use for figures today. I can, however, directly trace my interest in trainer patterns to my time spent engaged in the discipline of digging through charts (pdf charts are what I use now) that I cultivated back when I was a wannabe figure-maker.

And I'm sure guys who use database handicapping will bring up the point that time spent NOT having to dig through charts is time better spent applying skills elsewhere. That is a valid point. Just stating what has worked for me.

And I echo what he said. Different strokes, different folks. Just use what works for you. My approach is completely different from his, though both can and do work.

[GatetoWire]

I'm a bit old school and I use the traditional tools of Form, Class, Speed and Pace mixed in with Trainer Angles, lots of video Trip Handicapping, Sire Ratings and Pedigree data.

The key to success IMO is knowing which tool is most important in each race and then how to successfully wager for profit in that race. For that I use a combination of teaching from James Quinn (Handicapping), Barry Meadow and Dave Schwartz (Line making, contender selection and wagering options)

Quinn sums up the selection process very well
Do the Horses fit the eligibility conditions or class levels, of the race?
If the horses deliver a positive effort, can they run fast enough to win?
Have the horses arrived in acceptable improving or peaked form?
Will the horses be comfortable with the probable pace?

The biggest thing I have learned is that in order to be really successful it requires a lot of time, effort and the ability to be sharp every day you play.
I find my losing streaks are often the result of my own time constraints or how much focus and effort I am able to put in. I've realized that if I don't have the time to really prepare and be ready then I probably need to skip because my ROI will likely not be were it needs to be.

Just my 2 cents

[pandy]

In order to come out ahead at the end of the year, you usually need several exotic scores. Perhaps there are exceptions to this, I know there are people on this forum who claim that they only bet to win. Personally, I've met many winning horse players and not one of them is a win bettor.

These exotic scores are usually generated by a key horse, such as a longshot winner, or, a double digit overlay that you hook up successfully in an exotic wager.

In order to hit these key horses, it helps if you are not locked into just one way of looking at a race (which is virtually impossible because a $10,000 claiming sprint at Mountaineer can't be handicapped the same way you would handicap $50,000 claiming race at Belmont).

Personally, I like to use multiple approaches, especially when betting something like a Pick 3, or superfecta. In a Pick 3 or 4, you can use multiple angles to spot horses that have a good shot to win at a price.

For instance, I may bet a horse that has a competitive speed figure but for some reason is being overlooked in the wagering. I may bet a horse because it recorded good pace figures against tougher, is dropping, but is long odds. I may bet a horse because it had a difficult trip that was hard to recognize unless you watched the race carefully, and today it is a big overlay. I may bet a horse because it is a strong closer in a race (turf) that figures to be won by a closer and the price is overlaid.

But the common link between all of these is either OVERLAY or LONGSHOT overlay. You have to find good value horses and hope that you can hook them up correctly in exotics often enough to show a profit.