Bayern: Can he win at a mile and a quarter

[Bob S.]

Bayern has been brilliant running at distances from 7 furlongs to a mile and an eighth. But he has failed miserably both times going further in distance. He will be one of the favorites in this upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win this race going a mile and a quarter?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/bayern-can-he-win-at-a-mile-and-a-quarter/

[Exotic1]

Bayern has been brilliant running at distances from 7 furlongs to a mile and an eighth. But he has failed miserably both times going further in distance. He will be one of the favorites in this upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win this race going a mile and a quarter?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/bayern-can-he-win-at-a-mile-and-a-quarter/

Good post.

Bayern is also entered in the BC Dirt Mile.

[Secondbest]

Bayern has been brilliant running at distances from 7 furlongs to a mile and an eighth. But he has failed miserably both times going further in distance. He will be one of the favorites in this upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win this race going a mile and a quarter?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/bayern-can-he-win-at-a-mile-and-a-quarter/
no

[classhandicapper]

IMO, his races at longer than 9F are a toss because of trip in the Preakness and pace/bias in the case of the Travers. However, his 2 impressive wins at 9F were bias and pace aided. So I'm going to stick to my guns and say he's most likely a sprinter/miler that can win going longer in the right field or on the right surface. Unless SA is biased for the Classic, I'm leaving him off the board. If it is speed biased, I'm still leaving him off the top slot unless it's an extreme bias and he draws very well.

[cj]

IMO, his races at longer than 9F are a toss because of trip in the Preakness and pace/bias in the case of the Travers. However, his 2 impressive wins at 9F were bias and pace aided. So I'm going to stick to my guns and say he's most likely a sprinter/miler that can win going longer in the right field or on the right surface. Unless SA is biased for the Classic, I'm leaving him off the board. If it is speed biased, I'm still leaving him off the top slot unless it's an extreme bias and he draws very well.

With Moreno and even Big Cazanova going, he has virtually no chance.

[Tom]

Go in the Mile and be happy.

[cj]

With Moreno and even Big Cazanova going, he has virtually no chance.

That said, I'd run in the Classic if he were mine. Nobody cares about the Dirt Mile winner unless they cashed a bet.

[Cratos]

With Moreno and even Big Cazanova going, he has virtually no chance.
Agree

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion, Bayern is clearly the best of his crop and has the potential to become the best horse we have seen since Curlin..

If he tries 1 ¼ or longer, I will back him enthusiastically, since based on pedigree and running style (!), I believe he will be proven highly suitable for these distances.

[cj]

In my opinion, Bayern is clearly the best of his crop and has the potential to become the best horse we have seen since Curlin..

If he tries 1 ¼ or longer, I will back him enthusiastically, since based on pedigree and running style (!), I believe he will be proven highly suitable for these distances.

Hard for me to put him ahead of Tonalist. Dogged him in the Travers and finished a decent 3rd while Bayern was nearly eased.

[DeltaLover]

Hard for me to put him ahead of Tonalist. Dogged him in the Travers and finished a decent 3rd while Bayern was nearly eased.

Tonalist is probably the other top colt of this crop; in paper he is probably the most accomplished so far. When it comes to comparing against B, I need to ignore Travers in order to maintain my high expectations on him...

I have the feeling that B will improve as he matures while the same will not be the case for his rivals.

I am not sure why, but this colt, reminds me of Quality Road, who was capable for the best and worst every time he was running; still I believe B has the potential to become a better horse...

[letswastemoney]

Pedigree will not be the reason Bayern loses the Classic.

He simply needs an uncontested lead, and I can't see him outsprinting both Moreno and Big Cazanova to get that either.

[Robert Fischer]

Bayern can get the distance, and his "A" race can win with a good trip.

However, his "B" race is off-the-board, and the pace figures to compromise his trip.

[Stillriledup]

For what its worth, which is probably nothing, Baffert had Game on Dude flop in the BC Classic while running Beyer figs way south of 100 when he was normally running figures in the 115 range. Now, i don't know what the difference is for the BC Classic vs "every other race" but Baffert's "best horse" didnt race his best in this particular race on this particular day.

Now, i don't know if that will translate to Bayern or not, but i think its at least worth considering and asking "why did GOD flop in the BC Classic on his home track and run a Beyer fig 20 pts slower than he normally runs".

[classhandicapper]

Hard for me to put him ahead of Tonalist. Dogged him in the Travers and finished a decent 3rd while Bayern was nearly eased.

Bayern has more natural speed and Tonalist has the deeper reserves of stamina.

The track at Saratoga that day, the way the race developed, and the fact that Bayern was on the rail all favored Tonalist's stamina.

However, a perfect scenario for Bayern at SA may not get the job done even if he finishes ahead of Tonalist that day.

Plus, like you said there are other quality speeds which makes that perfect scenario less likely. He would have draw inside on a golden rail speed day and the other speeds would have draw way outside and either get left or not get into it from way outside. That's a lot of "ifs".

[classhandicapper]

For what its worth, which is probably nothing, Baffert had Game on Dude flop in the BC Classic while running Beyer figs way south of 100 when he was normally running figures in the 115 range. Now, i don't know what the difference is for the BC Classic vs "every other race" but Baffert's "best horse" didnt race his best in this particular race on this particular day.

Now, i don't know if that will translate to Bayern or not, but i think its at least worth considering and asking "why did GOD flop in the BC Classic on his home track and run a Beyer fig 20 pts slower than he normally runs".

I think it's the innate quality of the horse. Some horses have tremendous speed and can carry it to very fast final time figures if they get an easy trip, but they lack the reserves to sustain anything like their best number when they have to fight off challenges, get a tough trip. or the track is very demanding.

Some horses don't have as much speed, but they have such deep reserves they can grind out a win against horses that usually run faster speed figures if the race is highly competitive or the track very demanding.

Some horses have both the speed and reserves (those are generally the champions).

[DeltaLover]

I think it's the innate quality of the horse. Some horses have tremendous speed and can carry it to very fast final time figures if they get an easy trip, but they lack the reserves to sustain anything like their best number when they have to fight off challenges, get a tough trip. or the track is very demanding.

Some horses don't have as much speed, but they have such deep reserves they can grind out a win against horses that usually run faster speed figures if the race is highly competitive or the track very demanding.

Some horses have both the speed and reserves (those are generally the champions).

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I think that all of us are pretty much aligned with your views..

I still have to say, that what is most interesting for betting purposes, is exactly the situations where the stereotype image of a specific horse will be reversed and under specific circumstances he will behave in a completely different way than any time before..

[GMB@BP]

Tonalist is probably the other top colt of this crop; in paper he is probably the most accomplished so far. When it comes to comparing against B, I need to ignore Travers in order to maintain my high expectations on him...

I have the feeling that B will improve as he matures while the same will not be the case for his rivals.

I am not sure why, but this colt, reminds me of Quality Road, who was capable for the best and worst every time he was running; still I believe B has the potential to become a better horse...


and where would shared belief rank with those two at the top of your list?

[JustRalph]

He looks the part

I watched a workout on twitter yesterday......he looked great

[Frost king]

So if Bayern should be fortunate enough to win or lose a photo in the race, and Shared Belief and California Chrome finish behind him, is he Champion 3yr old?

[pandy]

If the track surface at Santa Anita is speed biased again, as it was for three of the last four Breeders Cup days, then Bayern can indeed get the distance.

[Redboard]

Speed horses on the dirt are always interesting and any capper worth his/her salt can’t ignore runners like Bayern. Sure he can win, it’s a horse race and anything can happen. The question should be, what is the mathematical probability that he will win? One thing for sure, if either Moreno or Big Cazanova scratch, his probability goes up.

[Stillriledup]

If the track surface at Santa Anita is speed biased again, as it was for three of the last four Breeders Cup days, then Bayern can indeed get the distance.
Speed was incredible the other day, bad horses were battling 44 flat and nobody could pass. There were no "Sweepers" that had any shot....so, i don't think it can get worse for the BC, it will either stay the same or become more closing.

Speed bias was the "talk" of Friday's BC card last year, i thought i remember reading somewhere that they altered the track overnight so Saturday wouldnt' be so biased, but i wasn't able to find an article on if they actually did or not.

http://www.breederscup.com/article/beholder-speed-bias-talk-fridays-card

[pandy]

They did work on the track after Friday's racing was horrible. But both Friday and Saturday were speed biased in the prior BC at Santa Anita, so I am not confident that they'll have a fair track. Since 2007, when they installed the Cushion track, the track has been horrendous. The Cushion track was a disaster and since they went back to dirt the track has often been way too hard and speed favoring. Hard to understand why they can't fix it.

[Thebigguy]

Here is what happens in the Classic..... I already know, so dont forget this.
One of these two things will happen. Bayern goes out and wires. Bayern goes out and Moreno pushes hard they kill each other and Cigar Street gets first run on everyone and wins at like 12-1. IMO Moreno is the bey to the race. If he lets Bayern go early the race is over, Bayern jogs. If he engages early the race is over, Cigar Street jobs.
Who else can win but Bayern or Cigar Street?

[Thebigguy]

So if Bayern should be fortunate enough to win or lose a photo in the race, and Shared Belief and California Chrome finish behind him, is he Champion 3yr old?

If Bayern wins the Classic he is HOY. Same can be said for Belief, Chrome and Tonalist.

[Rex Phinney]

They did work on the track after Friday's racing was horrible. But both Friday and Saturday were speed biased in the prior BC at Santa Anita, so I am not confident that they'll have a fair track. Since 2007, when they installed the Cushion track, the track has been horrendous. The Cushion track was a disaster and since they went back to dirt the track has often been way too hard and speed favoring. Hard to understand why they can't fix it.

Wow any other hate you want to sling at them?

The track is a completely different surface than last year. Not sure if you know that or not, your comment surely seems like you are ignorant to that fact.

Will Take Charge lost the race by a nose last year, his running style was not what I would call one dimensional speed. The track was plenty fair.

As for the topic at hand, Bayern can win this race, At 5-1 or higher I'd take a shot on him.

Tonalist is going to at some point have to win a race outside the Belmont zip code. As it is he looks like a great horse on that track and an ok one everywhere else.

[bks]

That said, I'd run in the Classic if he were mine. Nobody cares about the Dirt Mile winner unless they cashed a bet.

He'd be very tough in either the Mile or the Sprint, though I'd love to see him take money in the Classic where he has absolutely no shot.

His best distance is probably 7F.

[thespaah]

Bayern has been brilliant running at distances from 7 furlongs to a mile and an eighth. But he has failed miserably both times going further in distance. He will be one of the favorites in this upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win this race going a mile and a quarter?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/bayern-can-he-win-at-a-mile-and-a-quarter/
I view Bayern as a one dimensional type that needs the lead from the gate or to be just off for the first half mile. If not, the horse has not shown he can win.
However, as memory serves, the BC Classic is not without winners which have led every call. Black Tie Affair in 1991. Ghostzapper as well.
So we'll see.

[taxicab]

Pedigree will not be the reason Bayern loses the Classic.

He simply needs an uncontested lead, and I can't see him outsprinting both Moreno and Big Cazanova to get that either.

Isn't that the truth.....
Bayern has Slew on the top side and the last great American distance dude on the bottom (Alydar).

In terms of the horse, he better learn how to rate a bit if Moreno/Big Caz both run in the race.


http://www.pedigreequery.com/bayern4

[burnsy]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I think that all of us are pretty much aligned with your views..

I still have to say, that what is most interesting for betting purposes, is exactly the situations where the stereotype image of a specific horse will be reversed and under specific circumstances he will behave in a completely different way than any time before..

Everything is odds....that's all well and good at a nice price. If you are taking what's going to be offered on this horse.....after seeing him back up badly vs. these at this distance. Go ahead, not for me unless its at least 6-1. Even then I would just use in exactas. He is another Game on Dude, if he gets pushed hard, at this distance, he will wilt. So far, the stereotype on this horse is proven. Can't take an "overbet" on that. If track is jigged up like is usually is he might better rating.....but this horse usually runs worse when he's overbet.

[DeltaLover]

and where would shared belief rank with those two at the top of your list?

Obviously another top horse of the crop... Still I need to see him against the crème to form a better opinion...

[DeltaLover]

He is another Game on Dude, if he gets pushed hard, at this distance, he will wilt.

But this exactly the point I am trying to make... It seems very possible to me this kind of behaviour to change!

[Mineshaft]

Bayern has been brilliant running at distances from 7 furlongs to a mile and an eighth. But he has failed miserably both times going further in distance. He will be one of the favorites in this upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win this race going a mile and a quarter?

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/bayern-can-he-win-at-a-mile-and-a-quarter/





Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Appy]

I tend to agree with Delta here in that I consider Bayern to be a marvel of his age group, with qualities sufficient to enable him to win at any distance. However, the question is whether or not he has mastered each of the skills necessary for him to win at the different distances in the variety of race shapes that are possible. I suspect his connections hinder that likelihood and would therefore prefer to see him go in the mile.

[Cratos]

Obviously another top horse of the crop... Still I need to see him against the crème to form a better opinion...
I must have missed it, but what has Bayern proved? Yes, he has two good victories, but both came over surface-resistance friendly tracks and against hyped competition.

I not stating that Shared Belief is the "second coming" , but in my opinion he has done more than Bayern to this point.

Also to answer the question whether Bayern can get 1-1/4 miles and the answer is yes, but I don't see him getting a "winning 1-1/4 miles" in this year's BC Classic.

[RXB]

But this exactly the point I am trying to make... It seems very possible to me this kind of behaviour to change!

Actually, it's not. Frontrunners tend to win less often as age, class and distance increase.

I think Bayern might be a bit stamina-challenged in a legit G1 pace & class scenario at 9f, never mind 10f. Talented horse but in my estimation he's a miler first and foremost.

Running up the score at 9f against second-level 3YO's-- especially when able to control the early pace in 47-high half-miles-- is not remotely comparable to going 10f against legit open G1 company. We saw what happened in the Travers when Bayern got tested for pace, class and stamina in the same race.

[PhantomOnTour]

I must have missed it, but what has Bayern proved? Yes, he has two good victories, but both came over surface-resistance friendly tracks and against hyped competition.

I not stating that Shared Belief is the "second coming" , but in my opinion he has done more than Bayern to this point.

Also to answer the question whether Bayern can get 1-1/4 miles and the answer is yes, but I don't see him getting a "winning 1-1/4 miles" in this year's BC Classic.
Completely agree.

How is it that Bayern is a "marvel of his age group" when he needs a clear early lead and soft trip in order to win?
Has he overcome any in-race adversity and still won, like Shared Belief has?
In my opinion he's a brilliantly fast pussy; someone like Shackleford would have ground him into the dirt.
No way he wins the Classic unless SA is a paved highway and the other speed doesn't go.

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion, Bayern is clearly the best of his crop and has the potential to become the best horse we have seen since Curlin..

If he tries 1 ¼ or longer, I will back him enthusiastically, since based on pedigree and running style (!), I believe he will be proven highly suitable for these distances.

Yes !!!! HE DID IT :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[iceknight]

Yes !!!! HE DID IT :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp: NO he didnt. Might have as well scratched Moreno and Shared Belief and then made Bayern run this race It is a NON Victory

[DeltaLover]

NO he didnt

Hmm!! Now I am puzzled! Did the teller make a mistake when I cashed my bet?

Do I have to return the $$???

http://themindofagambler.com/bayern-bc-2014.jpg

[Tom]

Winning a race like he did says nothing about his class.
He got lucky.
So did you.

Take your money and be glad the race was destroyed at the break.

[DeltaLover]

Winning a race like he did says nothing about his class.
He got lucky.
So did you.



From time to time I deserve it :)

[iceknight]

Hmm!! Now I am puzzled! Did the teller make a mistake when I cashed my bet?
Do I have to return the $$??? Cashing the bet has nothing to do with winning a race fair and square. I note that Bayern is an absolute top quality horse who *could* won the race without causing that mishap, a la, ghostzapper's win back in 2004. Had he done that he would have proven himself without a doubt. Instead, due to his move (as well as Toast of New York's moves), the race will always have an asterisk against it as far as I am concerned. He won the PA derby in record time and he ran this race in superb time too. But this will never rank alongside Skipaway or Cigar or Ghostzapper's BC wins (which I believe each were records in their times) and they were all clear victories.
Cheers on cashing your ticket! You had some nice hedging there with all those other exactas!

[ultracapper]

Didn't hedge Toast of NY however. That's a big WHEH!!!!! That would have been a drag.

Congrats. Nice hit.

[Greyfox]

Winning a race like he did says nothing about his class.
He got lucky.
So did you.

Take your money and be glad the race was destroyed at the break.


That stretch battle between Bayern, Toast of NY, and California Chrome was epic.
Great class shown in that showdown.
Absolutely epic.

[ultracapper]

Remember for future handicapping, if CC can't get the lead in the upper stretch, he probably won't. He had no excuse for not winning that race Saturday. He should have gotten over the top. Whenever I handicap a race with him in it, until he proves different, my first question concerning him will be, can he take command in upper stretch? If the answer is no, he'll be underneath on my tickets. HOY is probably wrapped up if he finishes that move. He had no excuse not to.

[DeltaLover]

Didn't hedge Toast of NY however. That's a big WHEH!!!!! That would have been a drag.

Congrats. Nice hit.

True.. I was quick to eliminate this horse and obviously this was a huge mistake.

[classhandicapper]

Remember for future handicapping, if CC can't get the lead in the upper stretch, he probably won't. He had no excuse for not winning that race Saturday. He should have gotten over the top. Whenever I handicap a race with him in it, until he proves different, my first question concerning him will be, can he take command in upper stretch? If the answer is no, he'll be underneath on my tickets. HOY is probably wrapped up if he finishes that move. He had no excuse not to.


It's possible that 10F is not CA Chrome's best distance. I've thought that was a possibility since the Derby. He was able to win the Derby, but he looked better late in the Preakness and at 9F. Then he threw in a mediocre race at 12F in the Belmont.

10F might be the limit of what he's capable of.

I sort of agree. His chance of winning at 10F are probably better if someone else is trying to close him down than the other way around. He doesn't have the same kick going longer.

[Robert Fischer]

Chrome is a good horse. He came into the Preakness in razor-sharp form. He got good trips. His quality, and his tactical-speed edge, carried over very well into the first 2 jewels of the Triple Crown.