Let's handicap Belmont 10/13 Race 9 (turf fillies...that have run before!)

[letswastemoney]

Yes, every filly in this field has made at least a few starts! All 3 year olds going 1 mile.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=9&param1=6210&param2=897&param3=1196316)

:1: Cash For Ever (IRE) (8/1) - Only 2 starts, one in Europe and one here. Castellano is a huge plus, but there are better horses in this race unless she improves in her third career start (which is entirely possible).

:2: Hot and Spicy (30/1) - Broke her maiden in the spring at Gulfstream, then lost all four starts since, all in Canada. Inclined to pass...

:3: Secret Someone (12/1) - It's unusual for A.P. Indys to like turf. This one has done okay on the surface with two recent wins, and even beat Dancing House in the last one. Lezcano is a great turf jockey. I guess she must be considered.

:4: Lady Lara (6/1) - I'm shooting myself in the foot by pointing this out, but it's pretty sick for a 3 year old filly to finish on even terms with Trade Storm, the older horse Woodbine Mile winner. It's a bit disappointing to see no lasix for tomorrow's race. Despite that, the pick.

:5: Distorted Beauty (10/1) - Hey she beat Cash For Ever. Like with Secret Someone's sire, it's a bit unusual to see an Invasor handle turf so well. Probably not good enough at this stage though.

:6: Walk Close (8/1) - There's nothing wrong with finishing 4th by 2 lengths against Ball Dancing. Maybe an underneath horse to use.

:7: Ubiquitous Mantle (IRE) (50/1) - Deserves to be 50/1. I just can't see it happening for her.

:8: Kenzadargent (FR) (3/1) - Obviously loaded with talent, judging from her Euro races and her 2 for 2 record in the States. This will be the toughest field she has faced in this country, but she has good connections including top jockey Rosario. The second choice.

:9: Sandiva (IRE) (5/1) - Her flat race at Del Mar looks puzzling, as she has run well in Europe. The turf course at Del Mar is like a putting green, so it's possible she didn't like it. Either pass or underneath.

:10: Munirah (10/1) - At this point, just doesn't look fast or classy enough. Barely won at Monmouth over Sumba Sunset and She's Not Here. Although She's Not Here is a nice filly whose dam is a sister to Zenyatta, she probably would struggle against these, so I'll assume the same here.

:11: Indian Rainbow (IRE) (4/1) - Some extremely fast races in France and Germany, but without seeing a recognizable name like Trade Storm, it's a bit more difficult to judge those races. Still, seems like a top three prospect here.

Selection: :4: Lady Lara
Next Best: :8: Kenzadargent, :11: Indian Rainbow
For underneath purposes: :3: Secret Someone, :6: Walk Close, :9: Sandiva

But, now that I've gone through the entire process of looking at this race, I'm a bit concerned Lady Lara will lose something in the process of coming over here, switching to Bill Mott and not having lasix, so maybe a skip race.

[biggestal99]

9 drops in a beautiful spot here, gets vitamin L, pletcher, has run well off layoffs before.

A cramer revival hoss.

Allan

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

:1: Cash For Ever (IRE) (8/1) - I really like this filly and tried to talk myself into her as the semi-mystery that has a bit of a resume here and figures to be a solid price. It looks like she genuinely ran a big race last time, but facing a better bunch here - she figures to really need more than last along with a healthy dose of luck if she replicates her most recent running style.

:2: Hot and Spicy (30/1) - Gray Ontario-bred made some coin utilizing her statebred (province-bred) status at Woodbine. Nice filly, but strongly doubt that she's quite this good.

:3: Secret Someone (12/1) - Stepped it up in her last trio when moving to turf, but those are maiden races and entry level allowance so this is an obvious test here. I want to like her, but she looks like a half-a-clutz. Every race has her losing footing, being awkward, checked, tight break... bad luck is when it happens unexpectedly. When it seems a pattern, it probably isn't luck and I doubt she can get herself in trouble early and overcome it in this spot.

:4: Lady Lara (6/1) - I don't know what to make of this filly. She looks like a pretty serious player if her English form translates here. Trying to watch some of these races, my problem with her is she rarely really ever looks like a winner in those races. One I'd probably have to use on biggest tickets, but couldn't tag her as a winner.

:5: Distorted Beauty (10/1) - If I like the rail horse I guess I am supposed to like this one but I think she got a fairly ideal trip and ride in that victory. Sat just off a pace in which there was a bit of mid-race breather and then got first run on everyone and held sway. I can easily see her sitting a very similar trip here and run well, but I think she must improve some and she seems as though she's found her peak and maintained it - which probably means she's a cut below with her usual.

:6: Walk Close (8/1) - I would expect the return to a flat mile to be a help to this filly - put a bit more punch in her last three-sixteenths - but this doesn't really look like a turf mile that will be hotly contested on the front. Of course, her "a other than" win was more of a grinding effort under similar circumstances, so it isn't enough to dismiss her. It still seems like if the race holds together that it might be asking a bit too much of her here unless almost nobody does a lot of running.

:7: Ubiquitous Mantle (IRE) (50/1) - I guess the positive to mention here is that I suppose there's a chance that this one could decide to ship hard and figure that is the best chance in this spot. I'm not sure that counts for a lot in terms of her performance, but it would seem a brave lonely lead might be her only hope and if so, she will impact the race to some degree.

:8: Kenzadargent (FR) (3/1) - Looks a big step up here out of optional claiming company and into stakes company off of a pair of pretty easy wins. But, it sure looks like they were hell-bent on taking the conservative approach with her by aiming low, winning big, and hopefully building confidence. She made almost $200k in a dozen starts before ever showing up here and most of those look like damn good races, so I don't really think she's necessarily stepping up in any way other than off her last two. At this point in history, it sure looks as though she was supposed to win those last two - just too damn good. So this seems like where she belongs, but it also seems like a lot of potentially good horses with a past resembling hers are going to be much more appealing on the tote.

:9: Sandiva (IRE) (5/1) - She's been all over to Ireland, England, France and run well just about everywhere she's gone - until she got to Del Mar for the San Clemente. She didn't run badly, but it wasn't a race with a lot of clues to what she's all about. After the race, she shows works from off the track at the training center. Maybe nothing to it, maybe they were working their way east and that was a sensible depot. Or maybe they thought she needed that off-track environment. Maybe the Lasix is on for a reason. A lot of pluses and a lot of questions, a formula that steers me off if she's among the harder hit on the tote.

:10: Munirah (10/1) - She has yet to do anything wrong but seems easy to dismiss. That may be premature. She wins a debut sprinting, then stretches out and moves to turf for start number two and runs a strong second in allowance company. Moves up again to stakes company, stretches farther, and wins again. Yeah, we're talking glamorous Presque Isle, Delaware, and somewhere in Jersey - but unlike a lot of others in here - she has actually met every challenge, every new task, sometimes several serious ones at a time - and looked good every step of the way. At 10-1, no thanks. At 30-1, maybe, and definitely underneath if I were playing that way.

:11: Indian Rainbow (IRE) (4/1) - As hard as this race is to decipher and feel terribly strong about anyone, the more I looked into this filly, the more I liked her. German racing throws a whole new wrinkle into the chaos, but her race in the Group II 1000 Guineas was really a hell of a race. I have no real idea what the other 46 participants are, but the top three finishers looked like serious business, especially out of the final bend all the way to the wire. A real friggin' race. And the winner, Calyxa, is apparently a pretty solid little filly. Some of that filly's rivals that she finished close behind in other Group races there - Priore Phillip and Lucky Lion in particular - look like damn fine racehorses. I think this is a quality filly that has run with some quality fillies. I don't really know, but I think. I don't know what the price will be here and that would of course push off or on the train, but I just suspect that she might get overlooked a bit and could be a really, really nice filly.


Selection: :11: Indian Rainbow (key)


For exotic purposes: :1: , :5: , :8: , :10:


Tough race and not my cup of tea as a race to play, but always fun to go through the motions of looking at a field like this.

Copied your quote again like last time to make my formatting job 99% easier. Interesting race for sure and fun to look at to boot.

[Aerocraft67]

:4:
Class edge over the field at face value, particularly last two BRIS scores, which will draw attention. Faster more consistently than the 11 and a better win prospect. Question is, can she keep form in her first American race. Won last race with second best figure logged by these lately. I’d bet her to win as a 6-1 fourth choice for sure, but don’t think she’ll go off at that, and not sure how low I’d go. Second choice at 4-1?

:11:
Hard to get past that big Timeform speed figure last out, but comment lines do not inspire confidence as a win prospect. Logical underneath.

:9:
Already has a North American race logged, unlike the 4 and 11. Previous form looks about as good as the other imports, won four back. But class scores trending downward, and comments imply she’s peaked at a level just below the 4. Serling is on her. Getting her footing on the American turf and returning to previous form quicker than the other “firsters” could win this. Maybe a saver exacta for the 4.

:8:
Runs about as well as the other imports in Europe, then wins two races with lower speed figs in New York, although a legit class score in last. Could have an edge over the “American firsters” accordingly, but the 4 and 9 have won with classier scores in Europe. The projected favorite; could play her underneath if going “deep” vertically., but happy to use the 4 or 9 over her.

:6:
Won third and fourth back at figs resembling the penultimate win of the 8, last two were faster against tougher. Another step up puts her in contention.

:1:
Shows early promise, but early. Nice to have in the mix with odds. Rail seems to have unfavorable bias here, though

:4: Win
:4: / :9: , :11: Exacta
:9: / :4: Exacta

A trifecta is probably too ambitious, but maybe:
:4: , :9: / :4: , :9: , :11: / :4: , :6: , :8: , :9: ,:11:

[johnhannibalsmith]

guess for the sake of tickets, I'll go:

$20 W :11:

$1 tri: 11/1,4,5,8,9,10 ( key 1st and 2nd) = $60

[johnhannibalsmith]

guess for the sake of tickets, I'll go:

$20 W :11:

$1 tri: 11/1,4,5,8,9,10 ( key 1st and 2nd) = $60

Errrr... watching the load, I'm thinking thrice. :D

[PhantomOnTour]

Gimme the NY bred #5

[Aerocraft67]

Errrr... watching the load, I'm thinking thrice. :D

Managed to cancel my :4: / :11: exacta with that loading tantrum.

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice job Aerocraft...you nailed my #5 at a good price.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Well that was ugly all the way around. Idiot behind the gate and that ride leads me to believe the jock might share a brain with her.

Good call on the :4: !

[Aerocraft67]

Nice job Aerocraft...you nailed my #5 at a good price.

I can't believe she paid $21.20. Hope you and JHSmith had the :5: underneath; great find, I did not see her.

[letswastemoney]

I can't believe :4: Lady Lara went off at 9/1. When I saw that, I had to put a few dollars to win, and she won!

Like I wrote above, she finished on even terms with Trade Storm. Trade Storm would be 4/5 in a field like this (because most older horses that have won open G1s would be a massive favorite if they were hypothetically allowed into a restricted 3 year old filly race).

[Robert Fischer]

:4: Lady Lara (6/1) - I'm shooting myself in the foot by pointing this out, but it's pretty sick for a 3 year old filly to finish on even terms with Trade Storm, the older horse Woodbine Mile winner. It's a bit disappointing to see no lasix for tomorrow's race. Despite that, the pick.
:4:
Class edge over the field at face value, particularly last two BRIS scores, which will draw attention. Faster more consistently than the 11 and a better win prospect. Question is, can she keep form in her first American race. Won last race with second best figure logged by these lately. I’d bet her to win as a 6-1 fourth choice for sure, but don’t think she’ll go off at that, and not sure how low I’d go. Second choice at 4-1?
:ThmbUp:

[stormreveler]

I can't believe :4: Lady Lara went off at 9/1. When I saw that, I had to put a few dollars to win, and she won!

Like I wrote above, she finished on even terms with Trade Storm. Trade Storm would be 4/5 in a field like this (because most older horses that have won open G1s would be a massive favorite if they were hypothetically allowed into a restricted 3 year old filly race).

Yeah, that was a great call on matching Trade Storm. Just got to look at the chart now and I am similarly stunned she paid $21.20. That seemed like the kind of thing that would get picked up on during the betting and I figured 3-1 or 7-2.

Well done.