Bel R8 - testing Davidowitz

[PhantomOnTour]

In his book Betting Thoroughbreds, Davidowitz says a 3yr old giving weight to older runners under Alw conditions has virtually no shot to win.

Constitution is 1-9 odds in the upcoming Bel race while conceding weight to an older runner....he totes 120lbs and #3 gets in at 118lbs.
I will make a small play against him with the :1: :3:

EX:
1-3 w 1-2-3-6
WIN:
1-3

[davew]

I pegged this race as a possible bad bridgejunper race

[Stillriledup]

Amazing call by both of you!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Amazing call by both of you!

No doubt. Constitution doesn't even hit the board.

Gonna be a really nice paying Trifecta for a short field.

[PhantomOnTour]

I get a win bet on a 3-1 and miss the exacta...and...and...how come no show bet !?
:bang:

DAVIDOWITZ !

[Stillriledup]

Constitution stumbled briefly at start, but he seemed to be moving oddly, very pronounced head nod, maybe it was because he was under such a hard hold, but his "Action" wasn't as smooth as you would expect on a 2-5 shot.

[stormreveler]

I had Easter Gift on top too. Was killing me as his odds plummeted in the final minutes. And I also neglected to make a show bet.

Did get the double and halfway home on the Pick 4 at least.

[Stillriledup]

I get a win bet on a 3-1 and miss the exacta...and...and...how come no show bet !?
:bang:

DAVIDOWITZ !

Taking 2-5 on ANYONE these days is a no no, but people keep betting these chalks down to ridiculous odds. Nobody is worth 2-5, especially a fancy horse off a long layoff who might be "prepping" for bigger and better.

[horses4courses]

Wow - it's a shame that the jumper didn't bet six figures to show.

I'm not a fan of Davidowitz, but that's a pretty solid angle.
It certainly does come around very often.

There was more to this, though, than a mere weight-for-age reversal.
Constitution was coming off an extended layoff after a significant injury.

My guess is that it's 50/50 we see him run again.

[burnsy]

Taking 2-5 on ANYONE these days is a no no, but people keep betting these chalks down to ridiculous odds. Nobody is worth 2-5, especially a fancy horse off a long layoff who might be "prepping" for bigger and better.

That's why average people can win at this, if they use their noggin. Why do you think I laugh when the jugheads come on here to tell people how great some of these horses are. If you are counting on winning with horses like this and are not betting thousands on them.....do something else....just be a fan, because you will be one of those people that never win. He booted some of those "California Chromies" and the like....let them go on and on....who cares? They are doing the people that can think a service. That's who you DON'T want to be when you bet. Ohhhhh, Constitutions back...gotta bet him. The question should be.......where the hell was he? Should I take 2-5 on this crap? That's what the people that do good think......... :bang: BC is coming up, there will be rants about how great some of these are........at even money or so. 1 out of 3 will win and people like this will never see the 10-1 or higher horse that makes the whole weekend....never changes...study the public, even the public handicappers...they won't let you down...... :lol:

[AndyC]

I would love to see the stats on this angle since his book was written in 1995. Personally I would much prefer an accomplished 3 yo late in the season versus an unaccomplished older horse regardless of weight. I am skeptical that Davidowitz had much hard evidence to back up his angle.

[thaskalos]

I would love to see the stats on this angle since his book was written in 1995. Personally I would much prefer an accomplished 3 yo late in the season versus an unaccomplished older horse regardless of weight. I am skeptical that Davidowitz had much hard evidence to back up his angle.
I am skeptical that Davidowitz is really who he pretends to be. :)

[classhandicapper]

I would love to see the stats on this angle since his book was written in 1995. Personally I would much prefer an accomplished 3 yo late in the season versus an unaccomplished older horse regardless of weight. I am skeptical that Davidowitz had much hard evidence to back up his angle.

I never tracked that stat, but over the years I've seen 3yos win despite carrying top weight.

Since 3yos are not at their physical maturity, spotting weight to an elder translates into a significant spot. But if the gap between the horses is large enough, this stat would never stop me from betting the 3yo.

I think Constitution's loss was more of a matter of being off a layoff from an injury and not coming back 100%.

[lamboguy]

in a non 2 life allowance i would thing the 3 year old wins more often, in a 2x or higher is another story.

facing older horses in tough allowance races for the first time is a tough task for the 3 year ole.

[AndyC]

in a non 2 life allowance i would thing the 3 year old wins more often, in a 2x or higher is another story.

facing older horses in tough allowance races for the first time is a tough task for the 3 year ole.

I think every race should be dealt with on a case by case basis.

To me a good betting angle is not something created by a racing secretary but something done by a trainer or horse's performance. An old example might be a claimed gelding held out past required jail time and brought back at a higher level.

[chadk66]

I am skeptical that Davidowitz is really who he pretends to be. :)Davidowitz was the handicapper for the Minneapolis Star Tribune in the early days of Canterbury when I trained there. My personal opinion is he is a major wind bag. No personality and just wasn't a good handicapper. At least not was he posted in the paper. Chances are he bet differently but he had a pretty low percentage.

[dirty moose]

What page was this on? I haven't read it in a while.

[PhantomOnTour]

What page was this on? I haven't read it in a while.
page 186 in the Theory Versus Experience chapter

[kingfin66]

I am skeptical that Davidowitz is really who he pretends to be. :)

Is Davidowitz still active in the industry?

[Robert Goren]

Davidowitz was a writer who wrote about handicapping a long time ago. Beyer was a handicapper who wrote some books a long time ago. There is a big difference.

[Tom]

Both followed the same path at about the same time.
They met at Saratoga and both published handicapping books not too far apart. One focused on figures and the other focused on a broader approach.

Very little difference between the two.

[acorn54]

i think he sells a tip sheet through twin spires, if memory serves me. i know alot of "famous" horse "experts" do, if you go there you can check them out at
the twin spires site under "handicapping"