Bad favorites at Santa Anita. Get on the gravy train.

[Stillriledup]

People at SA these days are POUNDING the chalk to ridiculous levels. Yesterday's first race there was a 3-5 with Bejarano and i still have no idea how the horse was 3-5. Today, you had Fascinating (the horse) in the 4th at 1-2 odds off a "100 year" layoff with a jock who is notorious for "riding easy" on layoff horses and the public couldn't get enough.

Jimbaran Bay in race 2 yesterday was, i think, 6-5 or 7-5 at the gate which was probably the "proper" price as he did appear to be the most likely winner, and someone just hammered him down to 3-5 which was obviously a bad price, most likely winner or not.

There IS value in the game, you just gotta stay away from these heavy chalk horses, i remember "back in the day" horses were rarely under 1-1 unless they were super horses. I mean, Wise Dan was 4-5 which basically means no horse should be under 4-5 unless its Secretariat.

If you see 3-5 or less, bet the race and bet against that horse, especially if its not a star horse in a stakes race, no overnight claimer type should be that short of odds.

[letswastemoney]

Fascinating is Bodemiester's little sister.

I didn't play the race, but Baffert trains them hard so I can see how the public bet her.

[Stillriledup]

Fascinating is Bodemiester's little sister.

I didn't play the race, but Baffert trains them hard so I can see how the public bet her.

Seems like the overbet chalks are either a top trainer a top jock or both.

People betting humans and paying a premium for "name" connections.

[workharder]

Nice nice! I see!

[ultracapper]

Don't bet against the 3/5 in the 5th coming up at SA today. That colt is the real deal. There is no note of it in the DRF pps, but that colt broke rather sluggish last time also. It was very interesting seeing hired gun Nakatani on him last time for a trainer that uses him once a year or so, and it was a give away of what is to come as Nakatani has always been very good with inexperienced racers. The horse to his immediate outside has thrown 2 wins that he had in pocket away in his last 2 starts. He had Test Ride by a head with 20 yards to go and momentum and just let Test Ride take it from him. Bad, bad sign.

Anyhow, #4 Alfa Bird in the 5th at SA today is Even with 15 minutes to post and he should prove to be one of the legitimate short priced favorites.

#7 Well Lawyered started his career at Saratoga with Pletcher, was well backed, and took a year off and moved west. Any of the followers of NY racing remember if there was any buzz about this horse in 2012? Also, is there any relationship between Pletcher and Terranova? John Terranova had this one out west and probably had a string in California post-Del Mar 2013. Was it a string of Pletchers?

[ultracapper]

Ohhh, Joe Talamo. Wrong place, wrong time. Never get stuck on the rail when you're 3 lengths the best.

This is why you never bet on horses at that short a price. Anything can happen, and even if they do win, you don't make anything. It's a total no win situation.

[menifee]

Ohhh, Joe Talamo. Wrong place, wrong time. Never get stuck on the rail when you're 3 lengths the best.

This is why you never bet on horses at that short a price. Anything can happen, and even if they do win, you don't make anything. It's a total no win situation.


Talamo absolutely killed me in the p6. That ride was so bad. Horse was 5 lengths better than that field.

[taxicab]

Talamo is tricky.
I always get the sense he leaves his horses with too much to do.
He's a jockey that will be hurt by the synthetics going by the wayside.

[ultracapper]

Talamo absolutely killed me in the p6. That ride was so bad. Horse was 5 lengths better than that field.

It was a losing ride, that's for certain. That one is entirely on the jock.

[redeye007]

whoever is making the oddsline at Santa Anita is an idiot. check out mondays 10-13-14 oddsline at Santa Anita for race 6 a 10 horse field
1 4-1, 2. 4-1, 3. 7-2, 4. 8-1 , 5. 8-1, 6. 8-1, 7.8-1, 8. 8-1, 9. 12-1, 10. 8-1

6 horses all at identical odds of 8-1 , 3 horses at 4-1, and a 12-1. my grandmother could make a more accurate oddsline. this may be the work of John White and if so he needs to be put to pasture. Brisnet figures have virtually no value anymore as it seems like you will always come up with the lowest odds using them so evidently they are being used to make the oddslines. I think that reading deep into the past performances can yield some good value plays rather than employing commercial speed, pace , and class figures, translated using commercial handicapping software as you are bound to land on the same plays as the masses. Handifast software found on this site is an excellent tool though.

[cfcrider]

I love Formulator's option to turn off M/L.