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View Full Version : Let's handicap 10/8 Laurel Park Race 9 (Maiden 5.5 T)


letswastemoney
10-05-2014, 11:43 PM
I'll write down my notes first, and you can write down your ideas below!

No morning line yet.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=LRL&race=9&param1=7380&param2=656&param3=1377576)

1) Prince Bernardini - Two major strikes against this colt. One: Bernardini isn't a turf sire. Two: Bernardini progeny like longer distances. It's a good thing this horse is entered because he will take money as a Motion trainee.

2) Love Your Humor - He ran well on turf at Canterbury Park, but this seems like a much stiffer test. I can understand why people might like him.

3) Melting Pot - No turf starts. His only good dirt effort came at a track I've never heard of, as I don't know what Tim stands for.

4) Grandiflora - Last start insignificant since it came on dirt. Two starts back, he rallied strongly in a 5F turf race at Pimlico to lose by less than a length, after the opening quarters went in 23 and 47. I'm not sure what the strength of that field was, at least not without seeing TimeformUS PPs, but he looks good on BRIS.

5) Pacific Theater - Last start is insignificant since it came on dirt. At least he has some 5.5F turf experience, and at Saratoga too. But, he failed to hit the board in either of his two 5.5F efforts. He should hit the board here against lesser horses.

6) Svindahl - Nothing special at first glance for this first time starter. Dig into his pedigree though, and you will find that he's a sibling of Tom's Tribute. Can't ignore based on that information alone.

7) Chasing Fire - First time starter as well. Considering he cost 3k, I'm going to assume there is nothing special in the pedigree.

8) Troubled Waters - Some good turf experience for this Demonic sibling, although it came at longer distances. The 7.5F turf race two starts back might sound like a sprint, but it's still two turns. As a son of Giant's Causeway, I'm not sure 5.5F is the best distance for him, but he can hit the board.

9) Glitter n' Jazz - Two 5F turf starts at Mountaineer and two off the board finishes. I want to think there's nothing here. The trainer switch might help.

10) Five Thirty - I guess his dam won on turf...in her seventh start at Colonial. It was his dam's lone career win. I'm going to assume there is no talent here...unless someone can make a better case.

Selection: Grandiflora

Ocala Mike
10-05-2014, 11:56 PM
Tim = Timonium (Maryland State Fair). They run a 7-day meet over a bullring track.

Too early to think about this race, but I may offer a "technical analysis" based on the betting 20 mins. before post if I'm on-line.

Robert Fischer
10-06-2014, 08:48 AM
pp8 Troubled Waters @ 2-1 or higher

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 01:14 PM
Here is the ML. I may or may not play. We'll see.

lamboguy
10-08-2014, 01:48 PM
i think the 8th at Belmont is a very interesting race because most are coming off a layoff. i went for #6 VINCEREMOS because he is training better than the last time i saw him.

Stillriledup
10-08-2014, 02:09 PM
Gimme the rail horse, a few turf breezes at the Spa, one throwout line, ready for action here.

cutchemist42
10-08-2014, 02:21 PM
:9: Flashing some early speed in first two tries. Wonder if new trainer might help

:8: First attempt at this distance, faced a pretty fast pace for a turf route last race.

:5: First race as 4 year old, 2nd with new trainer. Going back to turf where had prior success.

:4: 2nd off layoff where first was dirt attempt, now back to turf. Has shown early speed and talent.

:2: Shipper from CBY. Last attempt on turf looks good and now shortening up, not sure that helps though.

:1: 2nd time starter, 1st turf. Early speed in first attempt in a miden field that looked like had good horses in Sar. Capable on turf?.



Going with the win on the :1: , ML of 5/1 to see if turf is likeable.

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 02:25 PM
I guess a lot of handicappers still have faith in Bernardinis on turf! Statistics say his kids are a bad play on that surface.

But if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

johnhannibalsmith
10-08-2014, 02:30 PM
:4: :6:

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 02:34 PM
As an interesting side note, Prince Bernardini's second dam is the great Princess Rooney.

She won all these races:

PhantomOnTour
10-08-2014, 02:48 PM
Not the type of race I would play...looks untouchable with only one runner making his last start over the Lrl turf course.
Shippers, first time starters, first time turfers...no way.

If forced to bet I would go with #8 who looks to sit off a pretty quick and contested pace & roll right by them on the cut back.

lamboguy
10-08-2014, 04:31 PM
i think the 8th at Belmont is a very interesting race because most are coming off a layoff. i went for #6 VINCEREMOS because he is training better than the last time i saw him.ran a so so third, no reason to chase him next time for me.

Ocala Mike
10-08-2014, 04:53 PM
I said I'd be here 20 mins. before post with my DD price analysis:

Easy pick off the DD prices:

:2: to win.

:1: , :4: , :5: , :8: / :2: in exactas as the place bet.

woodtoo
10-08-2014, 05:01 PM
:4: Grandiflora one more step up.

Ocala Mike
10-08-2014, 05:15 PM
Missed the exacta by "that much."

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 05:20 PM
Here are the results

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 05:21 PM
I needed the 6 to run a little better, but at least I got some money back.

Robert Fischer
10-08-2014, 07:04 PM
sometimes race selection is more important than handicapping acumen

letswastemoney
10-08-2014, 10:04 PM
sometimes race selection is more important than handicapping acumenAlmost the sole reason I even considered the race was because I knew the Bernardini horse would finish out of the money, and I also knew he'd take action because of his breeding and trainer, and the fact he came from Saratoga.

I don't mind races with a lot of first time starters, or first time dirt/turf, as long as I'm familiar with the pedigree of the horses, or think I can research it effectively.

Ocala Mike
10-09-2014, 05:06 PM
the fact he came from Saratoga.




Yes, might be a negative indicator right now. Noted that two money burners ran out today, one at LRL and one at DEL, both from SAR, both Graham Motion.

STRONG STIPULATION, 7 LRL
HOBE WINS, 6 DEL