Red Mile Today

[mrroyboy]

Ok no picks but just some general comments to help with everyones bets.

Race 4 SKS looks like an easy winner. Might want to include Master of Law in exactas etc

Race 5 Shake it Cerry looks tough but Heaven's Door with Tetrick might be there. Another exacta play?

Race 8 I may actually bet Bee A magician here. Think she will do very well.

Race 9 Tough race Rocklamation always looks good but I have a sentimental favorite in this race No 3 Krispy Apple. Another of my all time favorite horses. Not saying she is a good bet but she has a shot and the value is there so maybe??
Race 10 Father Patrick looks best Nuncio looks second best but you might want to throw in the 2 Il Sogno Dream in your exactas and tris. Price will be there if he is second or third.

Race 11 All I can say is this is not a 2 horse race like many people think. If Sweet Lou had an inside post I would like him but with the PP draw it's tough. Clear Vision definitely has a shot and Modern Legend has a shot too. As well as "The old man" Foiled again. Not an easy race.

Good luck to all.

[cmp92]

Sebastian K lost two in a row. I think these guys smell blood in the water and maybe some of the big miles are catching up to Sebastian K.

[badcompany]

I want the picks of the guy who bet that exacta, with the 99-1 and the 11-1, down to $254. ;)

[mrroyboy]

Wasn't me. That's for sure. I lost with Bee a Magicain by like a head so I can't complain that much.

[cmp92]

Wasn't me. That's for sure. I lost with Bee a Magicain by like a head so I can't complain that much.
She ran a big race today.

Nuncio just upset Father Patrick.

[mrroyboy]

Just proves the point. No such thing as a lock.

[baconswitchfarm]

I want the picks of the guy who bet that exacta, with the 99-1 and the 11-1, down to $254. ;)



If you read on here you will learn that the guys who bet 7 seconds after the start of every race, from multiple tracks, were responsible for that. In my opinion they must really suck because they have only been able to make this race and the one at yonkers pay bad this year. If I had that edge I would hope I could hit over 2 races a year that well. :bang:

[badcompany]

If you read on here you will learn that the guys who bet 7 seconds after the start of every race, from multiple tracks, were responsible for that. In my opinion they must really suck because they have only been able to make this race and the one at yonkers pay bad this year. If I had that edge I would hope I could hit over 2 races a year that well. :bang:


How do you know it was only those two?

It's only glaringly obvious when it's a longshot number. Not so much so when it's a $25 exacta that should've paid $35.

[baconswitchfarm]

How do you know it was only those two?

It's only glaringly obvious when it's a longshot number. Not so much so when it's a $25 exacta that should've paid $35.


Because it is idiotic. Just do a quick study any day. Watch every race of the day. Write down your bets 7 seconds after the start of every race. Most harness pools have 5k or less in them. Now imagine there are twenty guys[as reported here] that have unlimited bankrolls[as reported here] and are betting 7 seconds after the start[as reported here.] If each guy bet a 20 exacta box that would be a 400 exacta in a pool paying out 4k. If that scenario were true then no exacta that lined up could ever pay over $20, at any track with that handle,[which is most.] Since numbers line up every day and pay more than $20 I can draw the conclusion that what is reported is not true by simple observation.

[badcompany]

I didn't "report" that there were 20 guys, or that they had an unlimited bankroll. So, I can't address that.

However, if I could bet 7 seconds after race the race started, I wouldn't necessarily bet a line up number.

There could be a situation where 3 three horses leave hard, insuring fast fractions. So, boxing the closers might be the way to go.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that betting 7 seconds after the bell insures winning, but it is an advantage.

[Stillriledup]

Whether people bet after the start or not, all that is needed is to gloss over the Red Mile results charts, look at field sizes, look at Win odds and kind of do a "once over" to see if the exotics prices "jive" what what they SHOULD have paid.

If exotics are paying "too low" at this place, its probably a good idea instead to bet a track where if you hit an exa, tri or super, you get paid what you're supposed to get paid.

[cmp92]

Whether people bet after the start or not, all that is needed is to gloss over the Red Mile results charts, look at field sizes, look at Win odds and kind of do a "once over" to see if the exotics prices "jive" what what they SHOULD have paid.

If exotics are paying "too low" at this place, its probably a good idea instead to bet a track where if you hit an exa, tri or super, you get paid what you're supposed to get paid.
100% right. Unfortunately, your options are reduced to either WEG or the Meadowlands.

[mrroyboy]

If people are betting after the bell etc it will screw up the pools. The point is there's not a lot we can do about it except maybe boycott that track or whatever. But remember just like suspicious bet downs they don't always win.

[Ray2000]

2 points

1. Betting after the bell is as old as the hills.

Back in the Eighties at The Meadows (RTD will know who I'm talking about but no need to use names here), A gambler had an 'arrangement' with a specific teller at the $50 window (which had very few people in line, usually no one) where the gambler would watch the race live from the balcony and as the gate swung open, hand signal the teller to cancel or let it ride on a prearranged wager.

Eventually they got caught, the teller got fired and the gambler was barred.


2.
Statistically it's almost impossible to compare payoffs on exactas vs win odds on the same 2 horses, because so few races (that hit) are involved
and what you really need is the specific exacta combo pool amounts for all races, and that's hard to come by.

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE=badcompany]I didn't "report" that there were 20 guys, or that they had an unlimited bankroll. So, I can't address that.

However, if I could bet 7 seconds after race the race started, I wouldn't necessarily bet a line up number.

There could be a situation where 3 three horses leave hard, insuring fast fractions. So, boxing the closers might be the way to go.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that betting 7 seconds after the bell insures winning, but it is an advantage.[/QUOTE


Seven seconds for twenty players are the numbers given in multiple threads here. You could bet line ups or closers. It is claimed these players bet 7 seconds after the start on every simulcast signal in the world. Since people claim to know on here, I haven offered thousands in rewards to anyone who can provide video evidence. I have the connections to have this stopped if true. But alas, only crickets . Nobody wants the free money. :lol:

[Stillriledup]

[QUOTE=badcompany]I didn't "report" that there were 20 guys, or that they had an unlimited bankroll. So, I can't address that.

However, if I could bet 7 seconds after race the race started, I wouldn't necessarily bet a line up number.

There could be a situation where 3 three horses leave hard, insuring fast fractions. So, boxing the closers might be the way to go.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that betting 7 seconds after the bell insures winning, but it is an advantage.[/QUOTE


Seven seconds for twenty players are the numbers given in multiple threads here. You could bet line ups or closers. It is claimed these players bet 7 seconds after the start on every simulcast signal in the world. Since people claim to know on here, I haven offered thousands in rewards to anyone who can provide video evidence. I have the connections to have this stopped if true. But alas, only crickets . Nobody wants the free money. :lol:

So you're saying people don't bet after the start? Im confused at what you're trying to say.

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE=baconswitchfarm]

So you're saying people don't bet after the start? Im confused at what you're trying to say.


A poster on this site claims multiple tracks allow 20 guys to bet seven seconds after the start of every race in America. It was personally witnessed. I offered a large reward for video of this so that we can put a stop to it. The rewards still out there unclaimed. Then every six months a number pays bad and it is attributed to these guys. If someone will let me bet that late in every race at every track I bet I can make more than one number every six months pay bad. Just think what twenty guys could do.

[lamboguy]

[QUOTE=Stillriledup]


A poster on this site claims multiple tracks allow 20 guys to bet seven seconds after the start of every race in America. It was personally witnessed. I offered a large reward for video of this so that we can put a stop to it. The rewards still out there unclaimed. Then every six months a number pays bad and it is attributed to these guys. If someone will let me bet that late in every race at every track I bet I can make more than one number every six months pay bad. Just think what twenty guys could do.just because you are a man with the connections to get things down, i am not asking you for any of your money.

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru122113.pdf

now please read down to the part in the article that proclaims when the stop wagering time was and what the exact wagering time were on the $202 worth of winning bets on the Yonkers race.

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE=baconswitchfarm]just because you are a man with the connections to get things down, i am not asking you for any of your money.

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru122113.pdf

now please read down to the part in the article that proclaims when the stop wagering time was and what the exact wagering time were on the $202 worth of winning bets on the Yonkers race.


I will quote it for you. "The question is whether or not there was past posting. According to official records this wasn't the case." Then not a peep tor six months. These must be the worst past posters of all time to never hit big again.


As for the money, you can give it to charity and stop cheating in the sport. A win win for all humanity.

[mrroyboy]

There is no argument here. There are things that need to be fixed by racing officials ,tracks, etc. If they don't they will lose many customers. I am just saying if we let any of this **** up our minds we won't be able to handicap anymore. I assume everyone here wants to make money.
So best of luck and skill to all. And for that guy that cut off my chat good luck to you too. :)

PS: Especially MY mind.