Let's handicap Keeneland 10/5 Race 7

[letswastemoney]

1) Sound Studio (12/1) - Although I like Curlin as a sire, they tend to improve after a start or two, and this first time starter doesn't have a win early trainer or an exciting worktab. Pass...

2) Audrey's Double (20/1) - I want to know why this filly cost $200k. For now, pass, unless the reason for that auction price is really great.

3) Loom (8/5) - She ran in a G2 at Churchill, and Milehigh Butterfly returned to run well in the G1 race for fillies here a few days ago, but the number for Loom's effort was slow. Also, even though Loom ran second to males two starts back, the number still came back slow. Reluctant pass, or use underneath.

4) Margaret's Song (12/1) - Taylor S might turn out to be a nice filly eventually, so this one can be forgiven for losing. I have no clue if she can stretch out.

5) Desert Valley (6/1) - Comes out of the same race as Margaret's Song. Again, you can probably forgive her for losing to Taylor S. Two starts back, she lost to Paige, probably an overrated filly, but I guess Paige ran well a few days ago.

6) My Alex Alexandra (50/1) - I'm not sure she'd even be favored in a bottom maiden claimer at this track.

7) Birdatthewire (4/1) - Lost her debut, in a sprint, but improvement can come with more distance as a daughter of Summer Bird and damsire Wagon Limit.

8) Title Winner (10/1) - Sprint debut is nothing special. Her dam was a sprinter, which is a concern in this route race.

9) Hopefaithjoy (5/2) - So-so debut in a sprint, but this is a route, and note her dam was a stakes horse that never won until they switched her to a route. Todd Pletcher trains, so the value may be questionable, although 5/2 would be fair.

Selection: Hopefaithjoy

Hopefaithjoy has a lot more potential than Loom on paper, so if Hopefaithjoy is 5/2 (I doubt it), a win bet might be fair.

[snickster]

1) Sound Studio

Would not throw this Curlin horse out in this relatively weak race.

2) Audry's Double

Ran decent effort on turf but looked like a slow race but that was on an off track. Could run better on dirt but this is unknown. Another one I would not throw completely out in this relatively weak field.

3) Loom

Claim to fame is 4th by 6 in Gr. 2 Pocahontas. Other two starts at IND look mediocre. That Pocahontas race was a grinding away plodder race and not really that impressive.

4) Margaret's Song

Toss - ran poorer race in first start than #3 at IND then came back to run poorer race than #5 at CD - two time loser.

5) Desert Valley

Ran decent race in first start at CD in a relatively fast time race and even running style; then came back to run in very fast fractional ELP race. Then ran mediocre race in next against Taylor S. But still looks like has some potential off of the ELP race.

6) My Alex Alexandra

Woke up in last race when dropped but steps back up and has not competed
well at this level - Toss.

7) Birdatthewire

Ran a decent race in first start but times of race were pretty slow for CD.

8) Title Winner

Caught a very fast 5F race 58/2 first time out where winner got a 94 speed rating. This looks like the toughest CD race run by any in this race. Now stretches out where does not have to show that much speed to win. Looking for a big effort on stretchout,

9) Hopefaithjoy

Has obvious class relative to this field coming from SAR. That was a pretty decent race running evenly for 83K MSW but the times were relatively slow and she was not close up; Looks like a good horse but nothing that special other than SAR in his PP's.

My picks:

#8 Comes out of toughest CD race and now stretches out where should do a lot better.

#5 Desert Valley out of tough ELP race two back where ran just off pace and finished 4 behind Paige in 1:09/4.

#9 Hopefaithjoy from SAR in tough race too but did not show that much run as was pretty far back all the way around but should do better in stretch out and with SAR class.

[Valuist]

I thought Birdatthewire ran a pretty good race back on Sept. 7. Several horses toward the inside were bothered quite a bit at the start and she was one of those bothered. Then makes a long sustained move toward the inside only to hang in final furlong. Still undecided whether the outer paths were better than day. Not sure the rail was dead but it wasn't especially good. Horses like this often show solid improvement from education of first start. By Summer Bird (by Birdstone) one could expect improvement two turning.

[Robert Fischer]

It's a tough race for me to find value in. I'll give it a shot anyway.


Big 3 = :3: :9: :7:

Longshot$ =:4: :8:


- If the 9 goes off 2nd choice, she's probably the pick. If she works a decent trip she should be right there. The Grade 2 on the form of the 3(a solid contender) will probably entice bettors, moving a tiny bit of value on the 9 and 7.
Maybe worth a look @ 9,7 in doubles and exactas?

4 is a price where you could see some lights go on, or she could have problems. She'll either be 1/3 of these odds in a MSW next out, or she'll be on the path to MC.
8 got a good workout in her debut while racing slightly green. She was not abused.

[jahura2]

It's a tough race for me to find value in. I'll give it a shot anyway.


Big 3 = :3: :9: :7:

Longshot$ =:4: :8:


- If the 9 goes off 2nd choice, she's probably the pick. If she works a decent trip she should be right there. The Grade 2 on the form of the 3(a solid contender) will probably entice bettors, moving a tiny bit of value on the 9 and 7.
Maybe worth a look @ 9,7 in doubles and exactas?

4 is a price where you could see some lights go on, or she could have problems. She'll either be 1/3 of these odds in a MSW next out, or she'll be on the path to MC.
8 got a good workout in her debut while racing slightly green. She was not abused.
:7: :9: :3:
I think Pletchers horse will be bet pretty heavily as Johnny V had 5 winners yesterday. The novice KEE fans love to bet the chalk. Looking for the 7 on the stretch out, will also use the 3,4,9 in horizontal bets.

[acorn54]

didn't see much to chew on in this race, pletcher-velasquez, turn the page

[Ocala Mike]

Will go with 2nd-timer :7: to graduate.

Exacta boxes - :2: :7: , :3: :7: , :7: :8: , :7: :9: .

[Jingle]

I like the 9 & 7.

Exacta:9-7 over the 5-2.

Tri: 9 with 7-5-2
Tri: 7 with 9-5-2

Good Luck.

[Tom]

:9: :3: :7:

[Robert Fischer]

The filly that was supposed to be an 'underlay' :3: LOOM, opens @ 6-1 :ThmbDown:

time to reassess

pretty much have toss the 3 here IMO.

the 5 is another showing a little bit different action than I anticipated, although she's a filly that I thought would be a bad value in general.

[Robert Fischer]

practice for a race w/out much evident value
$10 ex 9 w. 24578 =$50
$10 ex 24578 w/9 =$50


$100 shw on 9

some value supers
30cent spr 9 --2458--7--23458 =$3.20
30cent spr 9 --7--2458--23458 =$3.20

$206.40

[Robert Fischer]

didn't see much to chew on in this race, pletcher-velasquez, turn the page

good call Acorn54

Turned out to be a value-less mismatch, and (early and) late money piled on to take away any value from the winner.

practice for a race w/out much evident value
$10 ex 9 w. 24578 =$50
$10 ex 24578 w/9 =$50


$100 shw on 9

some value supers
10cent spr 9 --2458--7--23458 =$3.20
10cent spr 9 --7--2458--23458 =$3.20

$206.40

-6.40. Embarrassingly bad strategy after the late money. If you had a to bet the race taking $4.40 to win was the best of the bad options.

ouch, that was ugly after the late money.

A break even exacta turned into a loss, A 2.80 shw fell to 2.40 and then 2.20.

Loom had a dream trip to run a non-threatening 3rd.

Sharp money at Keeneland in a race that was already too tough to play on paper.

[letswastemoney]

I ended up skipping as well after thinking about it a bit more. I'll try to find a different one to give a full analysis.

[letswastemoney]

I like the 9 & 7.

Exacta:9-7 over the 5-2.

Tri: 9 with 7-5-2
Tri: 7 with 9-5-2

Good Luck.
Almost

[raybo]

Had 3 ranked 1st in Class and 2nd in Power, and 9 ranked 2nd in Class and 1st in Power. I don't get into projecting young horses to add distance, or get it the first time they try. I would definitely have passed this race.

[letswastemoney]

Had 3 ranked 1st in Class and 2nd in Power, and 9 ranked 2nd in Class and 1st in Power. I don't get into projecting young horses to add distance, or get it the first time they try. I would definitely have passed this race.Hopefaithjoy definitely had a superb route pedigree, mainly because of her dam. I don't think sprint figures matter much if the horse isn't bred for sprints.

Her dam is R Lady Joy (anyone remember her?)

Here is the link to her dam's Equibase page.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=6512932&registry=T