Poindexter
10-04-2014, 07:23 PM
Balmoral Saturday.
The late pick 4 looks a little expensive (and concerned about the drivers in the last race), so I am going to pass the last pick 4 and I am just going to put up some random thoughts on the entire Balmoral card for Saturday night. Good Luck.
1st) 2-4-5-8 look like the main contenders, if the 2 is anywhere close to his morning line of 12-1 will likely key him. I will forgive his last at Maywood where he was 8th at the ¾ pole at Maywood at 55-1. Prior was a big effort 1st over basically even in a 55.4 last ½
2nd) off my ratings looks like a 2 horse race 5 & 6. Duneside Louie dominated with a 57 second middle ½ and held off a well bet invader from Hoosier. Daves Art had a fairly good trip, but closed really well and cruised while not even being asked.
3rd ) I think the 3-6 look to be the horse here. Always talking put in a 55 second middle half before tiring late, Lizzabelle was roughed up from the 9 hole in last, was overland from the 7 hole 2 back. Now takes a huge drop in class.
4th) A few of these regressed in last. Going to go with #2 Hot Rod Pete who rail rode and closed nicely in 55.3 last ½ . The only horse with a comparable figure on my figures is Little Hank 2 back, but he gapped cover and was terrible in last.
5th) Off my numbers this is a wide open 5 horse field(the 4 being a toss). Visually #3 Sleazeburger n Fries, looked really good(his first start on Lasix) winning easily but earning a fairly moderate figure. Do not have a lot of interest here.
6th) #5 Ready ran out of his mind in his last improving about 3 seconds off his previous performance on my numbers. His last race makes him best and think he will probably offer a pretty decent price. The obvious other contenders are the 6 Native Lights who was used hard 1st quarter came 1st out far turn but was not match for Ready, Aces Again-who was bet like he was something special 9/6 and ran even more special. Since he was scrathed sick and trailed a field at Hoosier. Lifetime Mattjic, obviously benefitted from the hot pace in last but he really closed well.
7th) No news here. Obviously the 5-6-7 are the 3 contenders rest would be a huge surprise. Too bad Ice Scraper not in here would make the race a lot more interesting. Have a hunch that Fort Silky might get away with a very comfortable pace and will look to play him if he offers any kind of a price. Im a Bonesera broke early losing about 3 lengths early lagged well behind the field and really motored home impressively, the beat the weaker members of this field. Al Hammered obviously will be 3/5 and cannot be faulted, but the 7 post may leave him with a little more work to do tonight.
8th) 7-8. These two are tons the best in this field right now but both must contend with the outside post. Doubt there will be much value in here.
9th) 3-5-7 look like the obvous 3 contenders(trip will determine outcome). The 8 Major Monet if he can salvage some kind of trip has an outside look. I think the 2 & 4 might receive some kind of respect at the window, I think the others are better.
10th) 1-3-4-5-9-Fairly wide open affair. I think the #9 off his last is probably the horse to beat and he can leave, but the 10 hole is tough and he is a horse that needs some kind of a trip. He has proven 1st over doesn’t work for him. Not much separating the other contenders.
11th)1-2-3-4-6-7-9-Another wide open affair. I give the best figure off his last to Western Slammer who rail rode and motored home vs cheaper. Made some nice moves in prior 2 races as well. Timewell raced poorly in last but now switches barn and maybe can improve for new connections I can make a case for each of the other contenders as well.
12th)1-3-4 Think Rockin Rumble is the horse to beat in here. Strong 55.3 middle ½ held off the #1 in here, just could not hold off the trip horses. I give him a strong rating for the race and think if he doesn’t break, he should probably get the job done. #1 Meadowbrook Samson-was bet to 7/5 in last off of some strong hoosier park form, but failed to duplicate it when 1st over(may not like being 1st over). Obviously will be a big danger if he can rail ride and get a clear run, or possibly with a 2nd over trip. Wildcat Bobby, seems to be getting back into fairly good form, is capable of racing well 1st over if need be and has solid figures for this level. Biggest knock is he often gets rough gate when battling in the lane. Note did not menton #10 who earned a good figure in last. I would use him if not for the 10 post(just can't see him overcoming it to win.
13th) 2-3-4-5-6-7-Another wide open affair. The two horses that look best to me are Dots Big Boy who has a 7% driver(in only 138 drives) and I am just not familiar with at all and Majestic Royale who has a provisional driver with a handful of drives. With proven drivers I would probably double the race with those 2, but without, makes for a tough betting affair. Dots Big Boy made a monster close swinging wide late far turn from far back, while Majestic Royale, had a huge 55.1 middle half and think the next 1/8th was probably very fast as well before completely collapsing late.
The late pick 4 looks a little expensive (and concerned about the drivers in the last race), so I am going to pass the last pick 4 and I am just going to put up some random thoughts on the entire Balmoral card for Saturday night. Good Luck.
1st) 2-4-5-8 look like the main contenders, if the 2 is anywhere close to his morning line of 12-1 will likely key him. I will forgive his last at Maywood where he was 8th at the ¾ pole at Maywood at 55-1. Prior was a big effort 1st over basically even in a 55.4 last ½
2nd) off my ratings looks like a 2 horse race 5 & 6. Duneside Louie dominated with a 57 second middle ½ and held off a well bet invader from Hoosier. Daves Art had a fairly good trip, but closed really well and cruised while not even being asked.
3rd ) I think the 3-6 look to be the horse here. Always talking put in a 55 second middle half before tiring late, Lizzabelle was roughed up from the 9 hole in last, was overland from the 7 hole 2 back. Now takes a huge drop in class.
4th) A few of these regressed in last. Going to go with #2 Hot Rod Pete who rail rode and closed nicely in 55.3 last ½ . The only horse with a comparable figure on my figures is Little Hank 2 back, but he gapped cover and was terrible in last.
5th) Off my numbers this is a wide open 5 horse field(the 4 being a toss). Visually #3 Sleazeburger n Fries, looked really good(his first start on Lasix) winning easily but earning a fairly moderate figure. Do not have a lot of interest here.
6th) #5 Ready ran out of his mind in his last improving about 3 seconds off his previous performance on my numbers. His last race makes him best and think he will probably offer a pretty decent price. The obvious other contenders are the 6 Native Lights who was used hard 1st quarter came 1st out far turn but was not match for Ready, Aces Again-who was bet like he was something special 9/6 and ran even more special. Since he was scrathed sick and trailed a field at Hoosier. Lifetime Mattjic, obviously benefitted from the hot pace in last but he really closed well.
7th) No news here. Obviously the 5-6-7 are the 3 contenders rest would be a huge surprise. Too bad Ice Scraper not in here would make the race a lot more interesting. Have a hunch that Fort Silky might get away with a very comfortable pace and will look to play him if he offers any kind of a price. Im a Bonesera broke early losing about 3 lengths early lagged well behind the field and really motored home impressively, the beat the weaker members of this field. Al Hammered obviously will be 3/5 and cannot be faulted, but the 7 post may leave him with a little more work to do tonight.
8th) 7-8. These two are tons the best in this field right now but both must contend with the outside post. Doubt there will be much value in here.
9th) 3-5-7 look like the obvous 3 contenders(trip will determine outcome). The 8 Major Monet if he can salvage some kind of trip has an outside look. I think the 2 & 4 might receive some kind of respect at the window, I think the others are better.
10th) 1-3-4-5-9-Fairly wide open affair. I think the #9 off his last is probably the horse to beat and he can leave, but the 10 hole is tough and he is a horse that needs some kind of a trip. He has proven 1st over doesn’t work for him. Not much separating the other contenders.
11th)1-2-3-4-6-7-9-Another wide open affair. I give the best figure off his last to Western Slammer who rail rode and motored home vs cheaper. Made some nice moves in prior 2 races as well. Timewell raced poorly in last but now switches barn and maybe can improve for new connections I can make a case for each of the other contenders as well.
12th)1-3-4 Think Rockin Rumble is the horse to beat in here. Strong 55.3 middle ½ held off the #1 in here, just could not hold off the trip horses. I give him a strong rating for the race and think if he doesn’t break, he should probably get the job done. #1 Meadowbrook Samson-was bet to 7/5 in last off of some strong hoosier park form, but failed to duplicate it when 1st over(may not like being 1st over). Obviously will be a big danger if he can rail ride and get a clear run, or possibly with a 2nd over trip. Wildcat Bobby, seems to be getting back into fairly good form, is capable of racing well 1st over if need be and has solid figures for this level. Biggest knock is he often gets rough gate when battling in the lane. Note did not menton #10 who earned a good figure in last. I would use him if not for the 10 post(just can't see him overcoming it to win.
13th) 2-3-4-5-6-7-Another wide open affair. The two horses that look best to me are Dots Big Boy who has a 7% driver(in only 138 drives) and I am just not familiar with at all and Majestic Royale who has a provisional driver with a handful of drives. With proven drivers I would probably double the race with those 2, but without, makes for a tough betting affair. Dots Big Boy made a monster close swinging wide late far turn from far back, while Majestic Royale, had a huge 55.1 middle half and think the next 1/8th was probably very fast as well before completely collapsing late.