Oddball Exacta Cherry Picking

[FocusWiz]

Last year I started coding something in Excel but stopped when I could not identify a technique to cherry pick exactas based on a combination of my handicapping and some perception of value (which I would say is now lost in some very convoluted formulas).

This spring I found the technique I was looking for and, although I am now able to complete this task, I did not notate well what I was trying to accomplish (though I left only 18 rows to accomplish this computation). I took a best guess that I was looking for either high values or low values and came up with something that is producing some odd results.

I thought I would share these today since they are producing some odd picks which are not what I would have expected.

Here is the Delaware 6th:

5/8,2,7
8/9,2,5
2/8,5
9,7/8

[FocusWiz]

Swish on that one.


Belmont 7th:

5/4
6/4,2
4/6
9/6
9/4

[FocusWiz]

Strike two, but I did not say this picks them all, but it picks odd combinations. It seems to pick a combination of long and short prices. It had a couple of winners earlier and missed two that would have been rather good if the race had finished a tad sooner. Here are the Delaware 7th Exacta picks:

4/8,1
1/8
8/ALL

[FocusWiz]

Strike 3, but I want to keep swinging...so I won't leave the box, just yet.

Here is the 8th at Belmont:

2/1
1,4,7/5
5/1,2

[FocusWiz]

Okay....a win....anyone can pick chalk, but it is a win, even though it is a losing win. Generally, my rule would be not to play against a horse bet down like that if it is in my top two picks (which were 1 and 2), but for today, I am not enforcing that rule. Here's the Delaware 8th:

5/3,6
6,3/5

[FocusWiz]

Another loser....here is an example of the oddball picks:


9/1,7,5,10,2,8,12
7/9
15/2
15/5

Forgot...Belmont 9th

[FocusWiz]

All losers (as usual).

I do not play Arabians, but here is what was picked for the 9th at Delaware:

2/1,7,5

[FocusWiz]

It got the numbers but not the order (and who couldn't have picked the numbers).

Anyway, there is a strange glitch in the selection process where it did not report a significant selection earlier. Let me see if I can fix it for the next race at Penn National.

[FocusWiz]

Let's try these for Penn National Race 1:

4/1,11,6,9
5/8,6,3
8/4,6,5,3
11/4
3,6,9/4

[FocusWiz]

Pen Race 1 followed the usual pattern, but I have hope for Race 2 and beyond.

Exactas

4/7,3
7/4
2/4,7

[FocusWiz]

Major hard drive problems right now....here is Penn Race 3:

4/6,1
6/2
6/4

[FocusWiz]

Gradually recovering from hard drive disaster. Here is Woodbine Race 2:

4/6,2,1
6/4

[FocusWiz]

Penn National Race 4:

6/2,1,7,3
2/4
7/6
4/2
3/6

[FocusWiz]

Mountaineer Race 7
2/7
7/2
3/2,7

[FocusWiz]

Woodbine 6th

6/7,1,2,4
7/6

[FocusWiz]

Evangeline 7th
3/5,4,1,9
4/6
6/4
5/3

[FocusWiz]

Charles Town Race 6
5/6,7
6/7
7/6,5

[FocusWiz]

Evangeline 7th
3/5,4,1,9
4/6
6/4
5/3Due to the Delay at Evangeline, I am adding these:

1/3
9/1
9/6

[FocusWiz]

Penn National Race 9

2/5,7
5/6
6/5

[FocusWiz]

Woodbine Race7

3/8
6/2,8,3
8/2,6
2,3/8
2/3

[FocusWiz]

Hard Drive Problems are resolved....was on the phone for 2 hours with support.

Not sure what this says, but I know I should not be betting Evangeline on a Sloppy track when I handicapped for a dry one.

Penn National Race 2 2/7 paid 16.40 for a 6.40 profit
Penn National Race 3 Total Loss -8.00
Woodbine Race 2 Total Loss -8.00
Penn National Race 4 Total Loss -16.00
Mountaineer Race 7 Total Loss -8.00
Woodbine Race 6 Total Loss -10.00
Evangeline Race 7 Total Loss -20.00
Charles Town Race 6 6/7 Paid 80.80 for a 70.00 profit
Penn National Race 9 -8 Just missed on the 5/6 Total Loss -8.00

[FocusWiz]

Win on the 2/3 at Woodbine -16 + 49.80 for an 33.80 profit.

We should not play Evangeline in the slop, and it is not necessarily wise to play against a bet down horse like the #2, but here is what was picked:

6/5
2/1,5,6,7

[FocusWiz]

Charles Town Race 7
6/3
1/3,7,8
3/1,6,7

[FocusWiz]

Win on the 2/3 at Woodbine -16 + 49.80 for an 33.80 profit.

We should not play Evangeline in the slop, and it is not necessarily wise to play against a bet down horse like the #2, but here is what was picked:

6/5
2/1,5,6,7This was the 8th at Evangeline. Another total loss

[FocusWiz]

Charles Town Race 7
6/3
1/3,7,8
3/1,6,7I had the 6/3 at the back stretch (which would have been nice) but settled for the 3/1 paying 31.00 for a 17.00 profit.

[FocusWiz]

Woodbine Race 8
9/5,4,7
1/9,3
2,3/1
4,5,11/9

[FocusWiz]

Evangeline in the slop, let's play this anyway....

7/1,8,5
2/6,7,8
6/8,7,2
1/7
9/4

[FocusWiz]

Woodbine Race 8
9/5,4,7
1/9,3
2,3/1
4,5,11/9I don't believe this one... the 5/9 paid 82.60 for a profit of 62.60

[FocusWiz]

Charles Town Race 8

1/2
2/1,6
6/1,2

[FocusWiz]

Evangeline in the slop, let's play this anyway....

7/1,8,5
2/6,7,8
6/8,7,2
1/7
9/4Another interesting race.

I had it until the disqualification.

[FocusWiz]

Charles Town Race 8

1/2
2/1,6
6/1,2Another total loss

[FocusWiz]

So, overall down $38.50 on $276.00 in wagers (some of them a bit too bizarre). On my ADW, I actually show a profit since I could not wager when I was on the phone with the tech support people. I may try this again with a bit more subdued wagering.