Top Horse Analytics: 10/01/2014 BEL

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after scratches have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- normally within three hours
- with Top Horse winning payoffs highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL,CD,GP,SA
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU,DMR,KEE,OP,SAR,TAM

[Augenj]

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Race Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

10/01/14, BEL, Race 1, 12.50 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :6: Star Magnolia [2-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
095.8992 :7: Mononoke [4-1] Castellano J / Martin Carlos F.
093.3850 :2: Andromeda's Risk [8-1] Maragh R / Brown Bruce R.
092.9867 :4: Rosemarie [10-1] Rodriguez I O / Chin Peter A.
092.6127 5 Charming Eyes [9/2] Franco M / Rodriguez Rudy R.
087.8218 3 Take the Zeppole [12-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
*Scratch* 1 Shesgotthemoves [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Nevin Michelle

10/01/14, BEL, Race 2, 1.21 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $46,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5) - Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Bold Runner [9/2] Castellano J / Quartarolo Anthony T.
099.3008 :4: Perfect Stormy [20-1] Silvera R / Reiff Eugene
096.1989 :7: Cee No More [30-1] Arroyo A S / Mazza Joseph W.
*Scratch* :9: Special Ops [5-1] Rosario J / Clement Christophe
*Scratch* 8 American Strong [3-1] Bravo J / Clement Christophe
*Scratch* 6 Professor Pegasus [15-1] Rodriguez I O / Zito Nicholas P.
*Scratch* 3 Tree Fire [15-1] Velasquez C H / Scott Phillip
*Scratch* 2 Stockholder [5-1] Alvarado J / Shirreffs John A.
*Scratch* 1a Jimmy Fillpot [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 1 Freights Bay [5/2] Franco M / Rodriguez Rudy R.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 3, 1.52 ET
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1.39.01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Cara Marie [2-1] Castellano J / Dutrow Anthony W.
098.3991 :6: I'm a Lucky Girl [6-1] Delgadillo J / Lynch Cathal A.
096.4306 :1: Cover Up [5/2] Rosario J / McGaughey III Claude R
095.3532 :3: Puca [3-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
092.2115 4 Caroline's Spirit [10-1] Ortiz J L / Hennig Mark A.
090.9034 2 Summer Forever [8-1] Luzzi M J / Toner James J.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 4, 2.23 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Southern Sunshine [2-1] Rosario J / Mott William I.
099.8367 :10: First Summation [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe
098.3630 :8: Gu Gu Beans [6-1] Castellano J / Quartarolo Anthony T.
097.8506 :3: Joshans Giant [6-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda
096.8150 1 Ainteasybeinggreen [12-1] Luzzi M J / Gargan Danny
096.3461 4 Rose Quartz [12-1] Bravo J / Orseno Joseph F.
095.3548 9 Super City [12-1] Arroyo A S / O'Brien Colum
093.4889 11 Marriedtomichael [15-1] Rodriguez I O / Brown Bruce R.
093.1036 12 Rice and Beans [30-1] Mejias L / Gutierrez Jaime
*Scratch* 7 Bi Light of Day [15-1] Worrie A S / Hertler John O.
*Scratch* 6 Sheepish [50-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Shevy Michael J.
*Scratch* 5 Glenbrook [30-1] Davis D / Turner. Jr. William H.
*Scratch* 13 Moldavite [12-1] Hampshire. Jr. J F / Allard Edward T.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 5, 2.54 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Island Candy [4/5] No Rider Yet / Rice Linda
099.9874 :7: Seven Stars [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Dutrow Anthony W.
097.6694 :4: Ready's Legend [3-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
094.0063 :10: Fall Into Faith [20-1] Garcia W A / Arriaga Antonio
092.6120 6 Kiss Cat [8-1] No Rider Yet / Ferraro James W.
*Scratch* 9 Eurokay by Me [4-1] Rosario J / Barker Edward R.
*Scratch* 8 Outer Orbit [7/2] Ortiz J L / Schettino Dominick
*Scratch* 3 Wildichi [50-1] Blake J / Goberdhan Chandradat
*Scratch* 2 Under Scrutiny [6-1] Arroyo A S / Ubillo Rodrigo A.
*Scratch* 1 Chow Fun [5-1] Maragh R / Levine Bruce N.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 6, 3.25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $56,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Nuffsaid Nuffsaid [5/2] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
098.5920 :1: Bobby Jo [2-1] Castellano J / Levine Bruce N.
093.6279 :6: La Bella Valeria [5-1] Velazquez J R / Englehart Chris J.
093.0704 :7: Rock Me Mama [10-1] Alvarado J / Metivier Richard
092.2835 5 Painted Poney [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
091.0793 3 Off My Cloud [8-1] Franco M / Esler Nicholas
089.0396 2 Madre Ditutticapi [6-1] Arroyo A S / Antonucci Jena M.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 7, 3.56 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Blue Pigeon [9/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe
097.0224 :1a: Hidden Vow [5/2] Castellano J / Brown Bruce R.
095.8746 :6: Saltine Warrior [6-1] Velazquez J R / Weaver George
093.3729 :4: Hooked Forever [12-1] Franco M / Ryerson James T.
092.1235 8 Papa Freud [15-1] Vallellanes J P / Toscano. Jr. John T.
092.0619 5 Social Rebellion [15-1] Arroyo A S / Ryan Derek S.
091.2425 9 Pegasus Red [20-1] Worrie A S / Barrera. III Oscar S.
*Scratch* 7 King Gettigan [3-1] Rosario J / Gullo Gary P.
*Scratch* 3 Archer Hill [4-1] Alvarado J / Lewis Lisa L.
*Scratch* 1 Royal Posse [5/2] No Rider Yet / Brown Bruce R.

10/01/14, BEL, Race 8, 4.27 ET
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1.39.01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $77,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Three Alarm Fire [4/5] Rosario J / Albertrani Thomas
097.7930 :1: Encryption [3-1] Lopez P / Breen Kelly J.
094.9734 :5: The Brothers Rap [8-1] Ortiz J L / Baker Charlton
093.4044 :7: Lieutenant Seany O [10-1] Velasquez C H / Friedman Mitchell E.
093.1974 6 Mack Miller [12-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C.
092.2640 4 Lawmaker [10-1] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A.
090.2913 3 Street Gent [15-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gyarmati Leah

10/01/14, BEL, Race 9, 4.58 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: Krista's Persona [8-1] Lopez P / Esler Nicholas
099.6123 :1: Jadam [9/2] Franco M / Schettino Dominick
098.1168 :9: Summersault [6-1] Rosario J / Hennig Mark A.
098.0015 :10: Sky Fortune [15-1] Luzzi M J / Englehart Jeremiah C.
097.7849 11 Cool Temper [12-1] Ortiz J L / Romans Dale L.
097.2682 4 Where's the Risk [12-1] Velasquez C H / Gorham Michael E.
097.1021 15 Brockolini [10-1] Saez L / Morley Thomas
096.4326 5 Culminating [4-1] Lezcano J / Clement Christophe
094.9759 2 Classic Aussie [7/2] Bravo J / Orseno Joseph F.
094.7461 12 That Warrior Girl [20-1] Alvarado J / Ubillo Rodrigo A.
092.1821 7 Jules N Rome [15-1] Garcia W A / Schettino Dominick
*Scratch* 6 Color Vision [20-1] Arroyo A S / Ubillo Rodrigo A.
*Scratch* 3 Light Years Away [20-1] Davis D / Kelly Patrick J.
*Scratch* 16 Little G [8-1] Rice T B / Rice Kevin
*Scratch* 14 R Y Squadron [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C.
*Scratch* 13 Loon River [5-1] Ortiz J L / Sciacca Gary

[Augenj]

WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

10/01/14, BEL, Race 1, 12.50 ET
100.0000 :6: Star Magnolia [2-1] 1st - 3.50 2.60 2.10
095.8992 :7: Mononoke [4-1] 2nd - 2.80 2.40
093.3850 :2: Andromeda's Risk [8-1] 4th
092.9867 :4: Rosemarie [10-1]

10/01/14, BEL, Race 2, 1.21 ET
100.0000 :5: Bold Runner [9/2] 3rd - x.xx
099.3008 :4: Perfect Stormy [20-1] 1st - 14.60 x.xx x.xx
096.1989 :7: Cee No More [30-1] 2nd - x.xx x.xx
*Scratch* :9: Special Ops [5-1]

10/01/14, BEL, Race 3, 1.52 ET
100.0000 :5: Cara Marie [2-1]
098.3991 :6: I'm a Lucky Girl [6-1] 4th
096.4306 :1: Cover Up [5/2] 2nd - 3.60 2.40
095.3532 :3: Puca [3-1] 1st - 7.30 3.40 3.00

10/01/14, BEL, Race 4, 2.23 ET
100.0000 :2: Southern Sunshine [2-1] 3rd - 2.10 DH
099.8367 :10: First Summation [7/2] 2nd - 4.00 2.20
098.3630 :8: Gu Gu Beans [6-1] 3rd - 2.10 DH
097.8506 :3: Joshans Giant [6-1] 1st - 17.00 6.60 2.50

10/01/14, BEL, Race 5, 2.54 ET
100.0000 :5: Island Candy [4/5] 2nd - 3.50 2.10
099.9874 :7: Seven Stars [4-1] 3rd - 2.30
097.6694 :4: Ready's Legend [3-1]
094.0063 :10: Fall Into Faith [20-1] 1st - 43.80 10.40 3.50

10/01/14, BEL, Race 6, 3.25 ET
100.0000 :4: Nuffsaid Nuffsaid [5/2] 2nd - 3.30 2.60
098.5920 :1: Bobby Jo [2-1] 4th
093.6279 :6: La Bella Valeria [5-1] 1st - 13.20 5.50 3.80
093.0704 :7: Rock Me Mama [10-1]

10/01/14, BEL, Race 7, 3.56 ET
100.0000 :2: Blue Pigeon [9/5] 2nd - 2.30 2.10
097.0224 :1a: Hidden Vow [5/2] 1st - 7.20 3.10 2.20
095.8746 :6: Saltine Warrior [6-1] 3rd - 2.10 DH
093.3729 :4: Hooked Forever [12-1]

10/01/14, BEL, Race 8, 4.27 ET
100.0000 :2: Three Alarm Fire [4/5] 1st - 3.20 2.40 2.10
097.7930 :1: Encryption [3-1] 2nd - 2.70 2.40
094.9734 :5: The Brothers Rap [8-1] 3rd - 2.80
093.4044 :7: Lieutenant Seany O [10-1]

10/01/14, BEL, Race 9, 4.58 ET
100.0000 :8: Krista's Persona [8-1] 4th
099.6123 :1: Jadam [9/2]
098.1168 :9: Summersault [6-1]
098.0015 :10: Sky Fortune [15-1]

[saddle sore]

I will no longer call you're Analytics ....Anal-ytics :)....You have my respect. And i don't give out respect freely. You have too earn my respect.......From my exacta calculations using my box 4 horses based on a 2 exacta payout....You had a profit based on 8 races....120.30..:jump:...JOB WELL DONE.

[Augenj]

I will no longer call you're Analytics ....Anal-ytics :)....You have my respect. And i don't give out respect freely. You have too earn my respect.......From my exacta calculations using my box 4 horses based on a 2 exacta payout....You had a profit based on 8 races....120.30..:jump:...JOB WELL DONE.
Thanks, again. On Monday, I'm going to start publishing weekly win statistics on the tracks we calculate. It will include Favorite, Morning Line Favorite, Top Horse, and Conditional Top Horse. Some might find it interesting... or not. :D