How to handicap when the track turns sloppy?

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I, no matter the sport, have trouble on the off going. If it is harness racing, thoroughbreds or the greyhounds, I can throw my previous selected plays out the door when the rains come.

Does anyone have any idea on how to get over this hurdle of being a stupid loser on the off going?

[The Inside Scoop]

You should stay away on nights when the track is sloppy. Most handicapping goes out the window on sloppy tracks. If you still insist on wagering, look to see how the track is playing over the course of the night. If the speed is good, play all the speed. If the speed is bad, throw out all the speed. If you do this for a living, sloppy tracks are good nights to do something else, your bankroll will thank you in the long run.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

You should stay away on nights when the track is sloppy. Most handicapping goes out the window on sloppy tracks. If you still insist on wagering, look to see how the track is playing over the course of the night. If the speed is good, play all the speed. If the speed is bad, throw out all the speed. If you do this for a living, sloppy tracks are good nights to do something else, your bankroll will thank you in the long run.

Thank you Scoop.

When doing online race predictions, I always take it on the chin on those days. I even went to the weather report (especially at the "Spa" in flat racing) and I usually end up guessing wrong and it doesn't rain the race is not pulled off the turf. I just take it as a given that in all statistics, one has to accept the inevitable, the off going will hurt bottom line (both in stats and cash if betting)..

[Stillriledup]

I didnt realize slop mattered in harness racing, i know that if thoroughbreds have sloppy tracks you should stay away or bet very small, but in harness racing? It never dawned on me that you do anything different.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I didnt realize slop mattered in harness racing, i know that if thoroughbreds have sloppy tracks you should stay away or bet very small, but in harness racing? It never dawned on me that you do anything different.
The best example today is Sebastian K, the Swedish Wonder Horse that took this Continent by storm. He has only two losses. One in the slop at Mohawk and his most recent start at Hoosier Park after a rain storm hit the track. He has beaten all others on fast tracks and set the world record (all age, all size tracks) at Pokie, all fast tracks.

I have heard that some horses cannot grab the racing surface when wet while others claim that if they treat the shoes with barium, the horse will gain the traction.

I just don't know which horses move up on an off going and others go down.

I really like The Inside Scoop's thoughts on to see how the track is playing. It might be more of a track bias than the horse's ability on the off going. After all the cushion on the track will dictate the front end speed holding up or be a tiring front end speed.

[The Inside Scoop]

There are a lot of horses that do not like the mud being thrown in their face and really struggle on an off track. Drivers as well have difficulty racing in the mud with the vision difficulty. You are also correct in your assumption that some slip in the mud and don't get ahold of the track. All in all for me, too many variables on an off track, so its usually stay away from the windows those nights.

I do think that races in the mud should be noted in the standardbred programs as a stat on each horse, like they are done for the thoroughbreds.

I know in the thoroughbreds, there are certain breeds that excel in the mud. Conquistadore Cielo's offspring back in the day were deadly. Seattle Slew's were also great mudders. Meadowlakes are another breed that comes to mind as well as Mr Prospectors. Back further here in Canada, Royal Chocolate offspring were superior mudders. I don't follow the thoroghbreds much these days but I am sure that a few of the thoroughbred handicappers could name some of the new breeds that are good mudders.

[traynor]

I, no matter the sport, have trouble on the off going. If it is harness racing, thoroughbreds or the greyhounds, I can throw my previous selected plays out the door when the rains come.

Does anyone have any idea on how to get over this hurdle of being a stupid loser on the off going?

Sometimes simple is best. Whether harness, thoroughbred, or greyhound, animals are reluctant to persevere when having mud and slop thrown in their faces. The only entry that doesn't apply to is the one in front. Find the entry most likely to be in the lead early, and go from there.

For horses--that have a mortal fear of poor footing--the tendency is even more pronounced. They are genetically hard-wired to follow (NOT pass) the most sure-footed of the group.

Looking for "entries that previously performed well on off-tracks" may be self-defeating. Those entries may have "done well" because none of the other entries did much of anything at all.

That is not a spurious comment. I spent considerable time researchng the topic (including a LOT of time with Virginia Butler, who specialized in handicapping the northwestern tracks and the off-tracks prevalent there).

[traynor]

Not to go off topic, but since you mentioned greyhounds, do you know of anyone who has written a text parsing app for the online programs for greyhounds? That is, an app that converts the format available online to a plain text CSV file?

[wilderness]

I do think that races in the mud should be noted in the standardbred programs as a stat on each horse, like they are done for the thoroughbreds.

In the old days (pre-Trackmaster) there were some horses that were designated as mudders in the old programs with an X next to their name.

It was however very rare, and I'm not sure if the local oddsmaker make this determination, or another.

Trotters (gait) are generally more solid bets on off-tracks.
Their shoeing is generally heavier and more difficult to balance than pacers. Keeping track of talented trot-trainers does offer some key plays.

[lucpark]

don't think it matters much on a mile track,,

I think a half track needs much attention in the slop..jmo`

[mrroyboy]

I think off tracks affect t-breds more than harness horses but again you would like to see some who have performed well on off tracks in the past.

[lamboguy]

there are certain horses that move up on certain types of wet tracks. while muddy and sloppy are both wet, they do play different for horses.

i happened to have posted a horse a few weeks ago that i knew loves the slop, but will not run in mud. the horse went off 13-1 but only ran second. but that is how i caught that type of a price. by my numbers that horse should have been about 5/2

[Sea Biscuit]

don't think it matters much on a mile track,,

I think a half track needs much attention in the slop..jmo`


Welcome to the forum Lucpark.

For all those who don't know lucpark is a standardbred owner of many horses and a very interesting personality.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Not to go off topic, but since you mentioned greyhounds, do you know of anyone who has written a text parsing app for the online programs for greyhounds? That is, an app that converts the format available online to a plain text CSV file?
Sorry I don't but the next contest I enter I will post that question to the group as they do have a public message board that is running live with the contest. I just signed up for October... Saturday night is the next one at Tri State.. http://www.bigjackpotbetting.com/contesthome.jsp

[traynor]

Sorry I don't but the next contest I enter I will post that question to the group as they do have a public message board that is running live with the contest. I just signed up for October... Saturday night is the next one at Tri State.. http://www.bigjackpotbetting.com/contesthome.jsp

Thanks! I appreciate it.

[lucpark]

Welcome to the forum Lucpark.

For all those who don't know lucpark is a standardbred owner of many horses and a very interesting personality.

thank you nice to be here:)

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Sorry I don't but the next contest I enter I will post that question to the group as they do have a public message board that is running live with the contest. I just signed up for October... Saturday night is the next one at Tri State.. http://www.bigjackpotbetting.com/contesthome.jsp

Sorry I didn't remember in time. I just entered the same sequence of numbers up and back to just enter the contest so that I could post that question and failed to enter the chat room while the contest was going on. All these upsets today in college football took my mind away from racing.

Funny thing is that I finished 134th with $69 in winnings (win and place contest) with four winners and one place. 15 races and 60 bucks total in wagers...so I ended up in the black without even looking at the program. Go figure.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Thanks! I appreciate it.
Sorry Traynor, I replied to the wrong post... my bad..

I will try again next week. Might even bet those guesses, anything that produces a profit has to be good.