Harness Racing far from perfect

[mrroyboy]

Of course there are problems at every track. But if your goal is to be a winning handicapper and to make money you have to take things in stride and move on. At Yonkers and Meadowlands you have these suspicious bet downs. That is my pet peeve. A horse from the 8 post or some 15-1 morning line type gets bet down to 2-1 or so. Sometimes these horses go wire to wire. Sometimes they don't. But what do I do about it? Nothing!!! I can't let it get me too upset because it will screw up the rest of the night.
I assume the people on this forum are serious betters so accept what is and your bottom line will thank you for it.

End of sermon from Preacher Roy. :D

[Vinman]

I've seen these "well bet for no apparent reason" horses win too.....very annoying. Only thing you can do is pass the race.



Vinman

[coachv30]

I got burned in a pick Five the other night at Hoosier. I hit the first two legs (Including an 11-1 shot). I have two horses going in the fourth leg (2 and 7). I look at the post time odds and I see the 3 horse (20/1 ML) going off as the 7/5 favorite.

This horse was running its third lifetime race. Never even in contention in its last two. No sign of early speed or late as well. Same driver as well as class level. This horse took the lead early first over and won by about 8 lengths. My 2 and 7 finished second and third. I ended up hitting the last two legs too. Payout was $1260 for 50 cents.

[badcompany]

With the current state of the game, it's amazing that anyone besides the trainers and drivers bets on the races.

I'm down to betting harness about 3 weeks a year, when I'm on vacation in Saratoga.

However, I often watch Yonkers races on the NYRA channel and almost never see anything that tempts me to bet. It usually see stuff that makes me glad I'm NOT betting.

[mrroyboy]

Like I said All we can do is move on.

[Vinman]

I second everything about Yonkers. I've moved on. Looking forward to playing Pompano starting this Saturday. They will have a 12% takeout Pick 4 with a 5K guarantee (which starts in November), a new Jackpot Super high five, 20 cent supers in every race, and their races will be on TVG. Looking forward to it.

Vinman

[traynor]

I've seen these "well bet for no apparent reason" horses win too.....very annoying. Only thing you can do is pass the race.



Vinman

I agree. The degree of ambiguity such races create can turn the best strategies upside down. It is most useful to recognize when that ambiguity is being generated, and pass the race. Harness handicapping is not for rainbow chasers. Passing a race is like picking 50% winners at even money final odds, without all the hassle.

[lucpark]

my hometown tracks ,,disgust me..
yet I still buy horses in this state ,,
call me crazy

[MutuelClerk]

I was burned last Thursday at Red Mile. Hit all four legs of the P4 and didn't get paid. The horse I loved in the first leg and used as a solo became a horse racing for purse money only ( transformer, Lasix issues). He would have been between 3-1 and 4-1. Didn't really like the favorite. Used the one horse who ran second in the exacta at 12-1. Because the favorite didn't run second I missed the P4. Exacta, tri's, WP bets refunded. Had to advance wager, went to watch my nephew play JV football. Frustrating.

[Stillriledup]

Of course there are problems at every track. But if your goal is to be a winning handicapper and to make money you have to take things in stride and move on. At Yonkers and Meadowlands you have these suspicious bet downs. That is my pet peeve. A horse from the 8 post or some 15-1 morning line type gets bet down to 2-1 or so. Sometimes these horses go wire to wire. Sometimes they don't. But what do I do about it? Nothing!!! I can't let it get me too upset because it will screw up the rest of the night.
I assume the people on this forum are serious betters so accept what is and your bottom line will thank you for it.

End of sermon from Preacher Roy. :D

Harness racing morning line's are pathetic for the most part, so don't think that because a 10-1 ML goes off 2-1 its "bet down" most of the time it just means the ML guy screwed up.

[cmp92]

Harness racing morning line's are pathetic for the most part, so don't think that because a 10-1 ML goes off 2-1 its "bet down" most of the time it just means the ML guy screwed up.
Some of the small tracks refuse to go any lower than 2-1 or 5-2 ML (Pocono is one). At least WEG and the Big M try to be reasonable...

[mrroyboy]

Agree. I said that before ML makers are limited as to what they can do by the track management. But when I say "suspicious bet downS" I mean horses that look pretty bad on paper not just on the morning line.
We all know what I am talking about. I am just saying to accept the reality in order to make money. Pass those races like Tray says or whatever. If we let these things get to us we will wind up in a straight jacket!!!

[Poindexter]

As a background, I used to play harness racing very seriously when I was much younger(teens through about the age of 25) here in Southern California. When harness racing left Southern California, I went on to other things such as chasing carryovers at the flats.....I always loved harness racing, and don't ask me why, but with the exception of a handful of occasions(I used to dabble once in a while at cal expo since I was familiar with all the drivers/trainers....But never really got involved with it until his year. This year(about 25 years later) I have been taking on primarily Balmoral, I will probably get involved with Meadowlands when it comes back. I must say that I am really enjoying the sport, far more than I enjoy the thoroughbreds. I know this sports has a very bad reputation. I go to barn to wire and it really saddens me too read all the anger and negativity spewed there. I read about how they used to have huge crowds.....the sport is dying......the sport is fixed....Drugs are rampant......

I guess I should just mail in a check instead of trying to bet the sport. I am sorry, do not see it that way. Not saying the sport is easy, not saying that you do not have to work, but I do not see all of this drama I read about when I play the harness races. The best horses win the majority of the races. Oddballs pop up once in a while, but not horses that should be 30-1 winning for fun at 5/2. I am just not seeing much of that. I am not saying that a horse who was once an invite horse has had some time off and 3rd off of a layoff gets hammered in a nw 4000 and cruises, but that is not a shock. That is a horse that was once good, that obviously the connections know he is sharp again and he is primed to dominate a much inferior field. Will I catch him in the pick 4, maybe not, but will I see how live he is in the betting and use him, of course. You can't ignore the tote and survive at any form of horse racing. As far as lighlty raced horses popping up, that is so commonplace with thoroughbreds it is ridiculous. 10th by 31 lengths in debut add lasix and blinkers, drop in class and run off at 7/2. That crap goes on in all racing, always has always will.

Now I am first to admit I do not play 7 tracks a night(I would rather play 1 track well then 5 tracks poorly and this is exactly what would happen if I played 5 tracks). So I do not see most of what you guys see. That being said, in my limited experience this year, I must disagree with the numerous negative attacks I see on harness racing.

Now I will say there is one thing I do not like that I see at Balmoral a lot and that is tucks. In my early years of harness racing, it seemed like every other race somebody was hung out to dry. At Balmoral, that is an extremely rare occurence. Even tonight in a $90,000 purse stake race, John De Long driving the favorite, gives up a 2 hole tuck to a longshot and guess what that horse went on to beat him(and would have beat him whether he broke stride late or not). You just do not give a 2 hole tuck on the favorite unless you are going to quarter move. That is just plain stupidity. If it was a $6000 purse I would say that he was probably not trying, but the was a 90,000 stakes race and he made this bonehead move, and he is the 2nd best driver out there(I think they have like 6 good drivers period on that circuit). The point is that that would have been a classic example of a "stiff" except that there is no way he wasn't 100 % live in a $90,000 stakes race.

The point being it is easy to draw conclusions, but everything is not always what it seems. I think your chances of succeeding on the betting end are far better if you focus on the goal of winning (using the tote board as a tool), then it is worrying about so and so juiced this horse and so and so stiffed this horse and you never know who is trying or who is juiced up....All that will do is lead to deep confusion and losing. The proof is in the results. If you are able to win or use rebates and bonuses and carryovers to get you ahead of the game, why worry about the occasional drugged up horse or stiff job. If you see a horse that is stiffed, keep an eye on him in the future,your payday may just come in a week or 2. If you constantly are losing more the track take or more, you are doing something wrong and you either figure it out what it is or go onto another game or enjoy losing, whatever your fancy. I just think there is far more value in trying to learn from your mistakes than there is in trying to make excuses for why you are losing. I just do not see the whole point of attacking everybody in harness racing as so many do.

[Sinner369]

As a background, I used to play harness racing very seriously when I was much younger(teens through about the age of 25) here in Southern California. When harness racing left Southern California, I went on to other things such as chasing carryovers at the flats.....I always loved harness racing, and don't ask me why, but with the exception of a handful of occasions(I used to dabble once in a while at cal expo since I was familiar with all the drivers/trainers....But never really got involved with it until his year. This year(about 25 years later) I have been taking on primarily Balmoral, I will probably get involved with Meadowlands when it comes back. I must say that I am really enjoying the sport, far more than I enjoy the thoroughbreds. I know this sports has a very bad reputation. I go to barn to wire and it really saddens me too read all the anger and negativity spewed there. I read about how they used to have huge crowds.....the sport is dying......the sport is fixed....Drugs are rampant......

I guess I should just mail in a check instead of trying to bet the sport. I am sorry, do not see it that way. Not saying the sport is easy, not saying that you do not have to work, but I do not see all of this drama I read about when I play the harness races. The best horses win the majority of the races. Oddballs pop up once in a while, but not horses that should be 30-1 winning for fun at 5/2. I am just not seeing much of that. I am not saying that a horse who was once an invite horse has had some time off and 3rd off of a layoff gets hammered in a nw 4000 and cruises, but that is not a shock. That is a horse that was once good, that obviously the connections know he is sharp again and he is primed to dominate a much inferior field. Will I catch him in the pick 4, maybe not, but will I see how live he is in the betting and use him, of course. You can't ignore the tote and survive at any form of horse racing. As far as lighlty raced horses popping up, that is so commonplace with thoroughbreds it is ridiculous. 10th by 31 lengths in debut add lasix and blinkers, drop in class and run off at 7/2. That crap goes on in all racing, always has always will.

Now I am first to admit I do not play 7 tracks a night(I would rather play 1 track well then 5 tracks poorly and this is exactly what would happen if I played 5 tracks). So I do not see most of what you guys see. That being said, in my limited experience this year, I must disagree with the numerous negative attacks I see on harness racing.

Now I will say there is one thing I do not like that I see at Balmoral a lot and that is tucks. In my early years of harness racing, it seemed like every other race somebody was hung out to dry. At Balmoral, that is an extremely rare occurence. Even tonight in a $90,000 purse stake race, John De Long driving the favorite, gives up a 2 hole tuck to a longshot and guess what that horse went on to beat him(and would have beat him whether he broke stride late or not). You just do not give a 2 hole tuck on the favorite unless you are going to quarter move. That is just plain stupidity. If it was a $6000 purse I would say that he was probably not trying, but the was a 90,000 stakes race and he made this bonehead move, and he is the 2nd best driver out there(I think they have like 6 good drivers period on that circuit). The point is that that would have been a classic example of a "stiff" except that there is no way he wasn't 100 % live in a $90,000 stakes race.

The point being it is easy to draw conclusions, but everything is not always what it seems. I think your chances of succeeding on the betting end are far better if you focus on the goal of winning (using the tote board as a tool), then it is worrying about so and so juiced this horse and so and so stiffed this horse and you never know who is trying or who is juiced up....All that will do is lead to deep confusion and losing. The proof is in the results. If you are able to win or use rebates and bonuses and carryovers to get you ahead of the game, why worry about the occasional drugged up horse or stiff job. If you see a horse that is stiffed, keep an eye on him in the future,your payday may just come in a week or 2. If you constantly are losing more the track take or more, you are doing something wrong and you either figure it out what it is or go onto another game or enjoy losing, whatever your fancy. I just think there is far more value in trying to learn from your mistakes than there is in trying to make excuses for why you are losing. I just do not see the whole point of attacking everybody in harness racing as so many do.

Very good points...........Pointdexter...........you hit the center when you stated that you do not want to be the 3rd horse because you will get trapped or has to be 1st over........you're other points being patience and waiting for the next race is so true because unlike thoroughbreds the harness horses are back racing next week; they do not lay off for a month like the thoroughbreds.

[pandy]

Anyone who wants to win consistently betting harness can just use the methods in my book, Trotpicks: Modern Harness Handicapping. The only downfall is that at some tracks you can't make big bets because there isn't enough money in the pools.

[mrroyboy]

All these points are right.
I am mainly talking to myself. I have to accept everything and handicap the races. Long haul I should do ok. Sort of like not going on tilt in Poker which is my main profession.
So good luck to all and thanks for your opinions and comments.

[Poindexter]

Anyone who wants to win consistently betting harness can just use the methods in my book, Trotpicks: Modern Harness Handicapping. The only downfall is that at some tracks you can't make big bets because there isn't enough money in the pools.

Pandy, I took your advice (amazing amazon reviews). This will be the first book on Horse Racing I have read in many years. I will put up a review when I am done(give me about 3 months :lol: ). I am really the perfect test case for your book because I am just relearning the game all over. I feel like I have a pretty good handle on it right now. The game seems pretty similar to me after all these years, but will be interesting to see what "modern" ideas I gain from your book and what it does for my performance.

[mrroyboy]

Pandy's book is good. Might need to be updated.

[pandy]

Pandy, I took your advice (amazing amazon reviews). This will be the first book on Horse Racing I have read in many years. I will put up a review when I am done(give me about 3 months :lol: ). I am really the perfect test case for your book because I am just relearning the game all over. I feel like I have a pretty good handle on it right now. The game seems pretty similar to me after all these years, but will be interesting to see what "modern" ideas I gain from your book and what it does for my performance.

Thanks, hope it helps, it should.

[badcompany]

I wonder how many new harness fans have been brought into the game in the last 10 years.

I'd put the over/under at 1.

[mrroyboy]

You might be right. Too bad.

[MutuelClerk]

Can I bet under?