Awesome Again

[jettroofer]

Was Smith hurt from the spill on the :3: in the7th? Who rides Shared Belief if he is?

[Tom]

Takes more than a spill and a ride through the parking lot to stop Mike. ;)

[jettroofer]

Apparently so. I was heavy on Fed Biz.....maybe just looking for an additional edge. In all seriousness, glad he isn't hurt. Haven't heard about WS's jock. Hope he's ok as well.

[MNslappy]

Trakus data, distance ran in feet:

Shared Belief - 6070

Fed Biz - 6004

Footbridge - 6013

Majestic Harbor - 6055

Imperative - 6029

Mystery Train - 6034

Sky Kingdom - 6055

[MNslappy]

G1 Awesome AgainTimeformUS Speed Figures:

Shared Belief 114
Fed Biz 115
Footbridge 111

on Twitter, CJ said "If our figures included ground loss, particularly ground loss in relation to pace, Shared Belief would easily be 125+"

[jettroofer]

There was no question SB was kept 4-5 wide nearly the entire trip. Especially around the final turn. That horse is a beast. Makes you wonder how the TC would've played out.

[Tom]

I think he got a lot out that race.
Impressive overcoming that wide trip and the stench of the other rider glued to him.

[classhandicapper]

I wasn't as impressed with Shared Belief as everyone else. He was clearly best, but if I had a legitimate Grade 1 horse I wouldn't be afraid of him.

Fed Biz is a nice horse, but he's a Grade 2 horse.

Footbridge is not even a Graded winner.

The rest of that field is kind of in and out depending on surface and trip.

He lost a lot of ground relative to the 2nd horse, but several other good horses ran with wide trips at SA yesterday and didn't seem to have a major impact on them. Maybe they weren't all as wide as SB, but I'm not so sure the ground loss should be taken as literally as the extra feet traveled. It may have been a disadvantage, but I don't think being outside was such a terrible thing yesterday.

The wagering problem for the Classic is that IMO the horses in the east aren't all that much.

I mean, Zivo is a really nice horse. But it seems like just a few weeks ago some people were arguing that he was very overbet in the Commentator Stakes for NY Breds. Now he's suddenly a leading older horse?

Itsmyluckyday didn't look like a world beater yesterday.

Moreno is nice, but he caught a few favorable tracks that helped him until yesterday.

Long River has raced against the grain in several recent races, but he's been a Grade 3 horse.

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong, but I wouldn't put either in the world beater category as 3yos. They are solid 3yos that seem to fit with these older horses because the older horses are not that good.

[Rex Phinney]

The classic looks more wide open than ever.

I have to think Baffert is going to try Bayern there now, he was a neck away from beating Shared Belief with Fed Biz a horse he believes isn't as good as Bayern.

Tonalist and Zivo had good days, but just how easy is it to throw your $$$ behind them outside of NY or even Belmont?

Moreno and Itsmyluckyday are nice horses but surely only capable of winning when EVERYTHING goes their way

Have to think California Chrome's best running is done, though he figures to improve off his last I can't see him moving forward that much

Shared Belief still looks the best, even though he didn't beat much yesterday if you think about it he is the only horse of these to win a race this year without everything going his way

[cj]

I wasn't as impressed with Shared Belief as everyone else. He was clearly best, but if I had a legitimate Grade 1 horse I wouldn't be afraid of him.

Fed Biz is a nice horse, but he's a Grade 2 horse.

Footbridge is not even a Graded winner.

The rest of that field is kind of in and out depending on surface and trip.

He lost a lot of ground relative to the 2nd horse, but several other good horses ran with wide trips at SA yesterday and didn't seem to have a major impact on them. Maybe they weren't all as wide as SB, but I'm not so sure the ground loss should be taken as literally as the extra feet traveled. It may have been a disadvantage, but I don't think being outside was such a terrible thing yesterday.


I think you are greatly underestimating his trip. He wasn't only wide, he was forced wide and being harassed while up close to a fairly hot pace. He was then wide again around the second turn while the pace was still strong. All wide isn't the same; his was pretty bad.

[clocker7]

In the Classic, SB's main competition will be a deep class of top shelf 3 yos that have run successfully at 10 -12 furlongs while carrying 126 lbs. Instead of dealing with lesser horses having less stamina qualities, (while receiving weight) like he has been this year.

This 3 yo old class is remarkably intact and has better longer distance performers in it, compared to the last two years, imo.

[thespaah]

Point understood. However, when the math comes into play 66 feet is about 3.5 strides.
After looking at the replay, SB was 'bothered' a couple of times, but it did not look significant.
If anything, I would be willing to concede that the trainer's instructions were to keep the horse outside and away from trouble.
That shows me that Hollendorfer believed SB could win even with a tough trip.

[letswastemoney]

I thought Shared Belief's race yesterday was incredible. More impressive than any other race in his career.

I wasn't sold after his 2 year old season.

I wasn't sold after he beat up on Candy Boy again at Los Alamitos.

I thought his win in the Pacific Classic was good, although he received a perfect setup.

In this one, Shared Belief didn't get a good trip. He was carried wide on the first turn and stayed wide, while fairly close to a hot pace. He looked beaten on the turn. Yet, he still won.

And now, no one else is impressed? It was an A+ effort. I'm not a fan, but I liked his race yesterday quite a bit.

[Rex Phinney]

I think some people have a Jaded picture of some of the Classic runners.

Wicked Strong has never won past 9 furlongs.

All 3 of Tonalist meaningful wins are at Belmont.

California Chrome is way removed from top form.

Bayern and Moreno don't have a prayer at 10F

[Rex Phinney]

Point understood. However, when the math comes into play 66 feet is about 3.5 strides.
After looking at the replay, SB was 'bothered' a couple of times, but it did not look significant.
If anything, I would be willing to concede that the trainer's instructions were to keep the horse outside and away from trouble.
That shows me that Hollendorfer believed SB could win even with a tough trip.

You are downplaying a lot of things there. Listen to Mike Smith after the race, he's been around a while and he knew exactly what was going on. Sky kingdom was out there on a kamikaze mission.

[onefast99]

You are downplaying a lot of things there. Listen to Mike Smith after the race, he's been around a while and he knew exactly what was going on. Sky kingdom was out there on a kamikaze mission.
Your last sentence sums it up best!

[Rex Phinney]

Your last sentence sums it up best!

Being there live it was pretty nasty, right out of the gate before they even got to the turn the 3 was leaning out on the 4, Smith first tried hustling SB then slowing him, the 3 mirrored Everything he did in order to block the inside

[thespaah]

I think the Classic sets up to produce a winner of a race that falls apart.
I'm wondering if in the minds of trainers going in will be reconsidering tactics.
We could all end up shocked what we might witness 100 yards our of the gate.
One thing is on my mind is that the betting favorite will be at least 3-1.
That's GOOD....

[cj]

I think the Classic sets up to produce a winner of a race that falls apart.
I'm wondering if in the minds of trainers going in will be reconsidering tactics.
We could all end up shocked what we might witness 100 yards our of the gate.
One thing is on my mind is that the betting favorite will be at least 3-1.
That's GOOD....

I think there is about 0% chance Shared Belief is 3 to 1 or higher.

[Rex Phinney]

I think the Classic sets up to produce a winner of a race that falls apart.
I'm wondering if in the minds of trainers going in will be reconsidering tactics.
We could all end up shocked what we might witness 100 yards our of the gate.
One thing is on my mind is that the betting favorite will be at least 3-1.
That's GOOD....

I agree with you. I like Shared Belief but I see something like Candy Boy or Tapiture winning, maybe a Euro invader, Majestic Harbor picking up the pieces. It will be the last thing that any of us expect.

[classhandicapper]

I think you are greatly underestimating his trip. He wasn't only wide, he was forced wide and being harassed while up close to a fairly hot pace. He was then wide again around the second turn while the pace was still strong. All wide isn't the same; his was pretty bad.

I think you are misunderstanding or overstating what I am saying.

I am saying there is evidence the outside paths were a little better than the inside paths yesterday. If so, that would offset some of the theoretical impact of ground loss and energy use running out there. He may have been running further, but since he was doing it on a slightly better part of the track than the rail, the net of it had less effect that 66 feet.

IMO, had he run on the rail he would have won by more, but it wouldn't have been ~ 7+ lengths of ground loss plus depleted energy being used hard and harassed. Maybe 3-5 lengths??? A solid effort for sure, but less than the literal interpretation I am reading.

But that's why there's gambling. I could easily be wrong in my interpretation of how SA was playing yesterday. If I am, then he ran great. He also may not have been totally wound up yesterday.

I'm looking at the BC Classic as "he's clearly the favorite", but I'm less afraid of betting against him now. I think people are going to overrate that effort. I can see a scenario where he runs well and still gets beat by a legit Grade 1 horse with a moderately better trip.

[Robert Fischer]

I haven't "spent any energy" determining the quality of that field, but Shared Belief was probably between 3 and 10 lengths better.

[classhandicapper]

I haven't "spent any energy" determining the quality of that field, but Shared Belief was probably between 3 and 10 lengths better.

IMO track bias is way more nuanced subject than just "good rail" or "bad rail" as described in the early books on the subject.

There are rails that dictate results, rails that move horses up/down, and rails that are just very subtly different than the outside paths.

Sometimes it's 2 paths that are golden, but if you are outside that it's a disaster. Sometimes it's 2 or even 3 paths along the rail that are a disaster and you are best off out in the 4 path.

Sometimes the jockeys are keeping the horses well out on the track in the backstretch, but you have to be on the rail on the turn or you can't make up any ground.

Sometimes the rail is clearly golden on the turn, but you can swing out in the stretch and you are fine.

Sometimes the track looks honest except in the stretch where horses are dying on the rail and then re-rallying f they come off and go outside.

I've seen a few sloppy tracks over the years where I was fairly sure the best riders were aiming for a specific tire track that had the firmest ground.

I saw one recently at a small track that blew my mind. All the riders were aggressively moving to the rail in the backstretch, but as soon as they got to the turn they purposely went out into the 3 or 4 path to avoid the rail. Then they they were willing to drift back in during the stretch drive. No one was rallying inside on the turn.

It's a very tough subject, which makes it both good and bad. It's good because there are constant disagreements, which in turn means if your opinion is good you can find value. It's bad because it's tough to figure out what, if anything, was going on a lot of the time. They card so many turf races these days, you don't get much of a sample of races to evaluate. Brad Thomas is a pretty good guy to read on Twitter or listen to at Monmouth.

[Tom]

Who ran well that wide around the first turn?

[SandyW]

You are downplaying a lot of things there. Listen to Mike Smith after the race, he's been around a while and he knew exactly what was going on. Sky kingdom was out there on a kamikaze mission.

Are you talking about the cry baby Mike Smith who has been known to pull a few tricks in a race himself.

[Robert Fischer]

IMO track bias is way more nuanced subject than just "good rail" or "bad rail" as described in the early books on the subject.

There are rails that dictate results, rails that move horses up/down, and rails that are just very subtly different than the outside paths.

Sometimes it's 2 paths that are golden, but if you are outside that it's a disaster. Sometimes it's 2 or even 3 paths along the rail that are a disaster and you are best off out in the 4 path.

Sometimes the jockeys are keeping the horses well out on the track in the backstretch, but you have to be on the rail on the turn or you can't make up any ground.

Sometimes the rail is clearly golden on the turn, but you can swing out in the stretch and you are fine.

Sometimes the track looks honest except in the stretch where horses are dying on the rail and then re-rallying f they come off and go outside.

I've seen a few sloppy tracks over the years where I was fairly sure the best riders were aiming for a specific tire track that had the firmest ground.

I saw one recently at a small track that blew my mind. All the riders were aggressively moving to the rail in the backstretch, but as soon as they got to the turn they purposely went out into the 3 or 4 path to avoid the rail. Then they they were willing to drift back in during the stretch drive. No one was rallying inside on the turn.

It's a very tough subject, which makes it both good and bad. It's good because there are constant disagreements, which in turn means if your opinion is good you can find value. It's bad because it's tough to figure out what, if anything, was going on a lot of the time. They card so many turf races these days, you don't get much of a sample of races to evaluate. Brad Thomas is a pretty good guy to read on Twitter or listen to at Monmouth.

If you see something there, maybe you have an edge. :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Who ran well that wide around the first turn?

Beholder ran 49 feet further than the place horse stalking a lively pace but still ran a Beyer figure similar to her other recent efforts this year.

Calculator ran 50 feet further than American Pharoah running relatively close to the pace yet ran a 5 point new top in a very fast race and lost by less this time than last time. Last he didn't lose nearly as much ground.

Shared Belief ran 66 feet further........

Majestic Presence ran 70 feet further than Angela Renee yet ran a 4 point Beyer top relative to her last where she mostly saved ground.

Other horses on the day also ran well outside, but with less extreme ground loss.

Trips like these are generally a huge disadvantage, yet all these horses ran well in terms of expectations and Beyer figures. If you want, you can explain it all away as Beholder running to her peak form, the 2 years old horses moving up sharply on dirt or just developing, and other horses that were just best.

The other possibility is that being wide was not as bad as usual. Those paths may have been a little better. So maybe split the difference????

Shared Belief's trip was the worst of the batch. So no matter how you slice it he ran well and should have won by open lengths. I am simply suggesting it may hot have been quite as impressive as the first glance.

Impressive? Yes.

Heroic? Maybe not.

[Tom]

True, but that wide on the first turn?

[Rex Phinney]

Beholder ran 49 feet further than the place horse stalking a lively pace but still ran a Beyer figure similar to her other recent efforts this year.

Calculator ran 50 feet further than American Pharoah running relatively close to the pace yet ran a 5 point new top in a very fast race and lost by less this time than last time. Last he didn't lose nearly as much ground.

Shared Belief ran 66 feet further........

Majestic Presence ran 70 feet further than Angela Renee yet ran a 4 point Beyer top relative to her last where she mostly saved ground.

Other horses on the day also ran well outside, but with less extreme ground loss.

Trips like these are generally a huge disadvantage, yet all these horses ran well in terms of expectations and Beyer figures. If you want, you can explain it all away as Beholder running to her peak form, the 2 years old horses moving up sharply on dirt or just developing, and other horses that were just best.

The other possibility is that being wide was not as bad as usual. Those paths may have been a little better. So maybe split the difference????

Shared Belief's trip was the worst of the batch. So no matter how you slice it he ran well and should have won by open lengths. I am simply suggesting it may hot have been quite as impressive as the first glance.

Impressive? Yes.

Heroic? Maybe not.

2 of the 3 you cited lost? Not sure what that says about the outer paths. The one horse you cited that did come back to win was Beholder, and well, she is Beholder.

American Pharaoh did all the hard work in his race and still won on the inside, by open lengths.

You also have to think even those horses using the outside where left to run their own race out there, Smith spent the first 6 furlongs of the race either trying to outpace Sky Kingdom or slow down enough to let him pass. The first time they came by Smith surely wasn't riding like a guy who expected to be 5 wide on each turn, he was clearly trying to get in front of Sky Kingdom and stalk Fed Biz, so he probably used more horse than he would have liked. Just before the first turn Smith lets off the gas which Espinoza mirrors in order to move both horses outward, this is right about when Fed Biz gets away and Mystery Train moves in, after which Fed Biz was able to run the second and then the third quarter both slower than the one before.

The race wasn't pretty nor heroic, but it was a nasty trip for a horse that came back to win, I can't recall any horse this year that won with a trip like that even if they where a 1/5 favorite.

[onefast99]

Being there live it was pretty nasty, right out of the gate before they even got to the turn the 3 was leaning out on the 4, Smith first tried hustling SB then slowing him, the 3 mirrored Everything he did in order to block the inside
Bob Baffert trains both Sky Kingdom and Fed Biz, but told the Santa Anita publicity office he had nothing to do with the tactics employed by Espinoza.

"These guys are fierce competitors," Baffert said, alluding to Espinoza, Smith, and others in the jockey colony. "I see it happen to my horses when you have a good one. I didn't tell Victor to do that. He stayed away from my other horse, Fed Biz…Game On Dude (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/game-on-dude/2007?source=BHonline), that's why I retired him, because he was starting to get mugged, every race. I didn't cry about it. I just retired him."

"I don't know exactly what Victor was doing," Smith said Sunday. "My horse overcame it and showed a lot of fight. He finished the race strong and he had to work for it after being taken out (wide).

Really Bob?

[Stillriledup]

Bob Baffert trains both Sky Kingdom and Fed Biz, but told the Santa Anita publicity office he had nothing to do with the tactics employed by Espinoza.

"These guys are fierce competitors," Baffert said, alluding to Espinoza, Smith, and others in the jockey colony. "I see it happen to my horses when you have a good one. I didn't tell Victor to do that. He stayed away from my other horse, Fed Biz…Game On Dude (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/game-on-dude/2007?source=BHonline), that's why I retired him, because he was starting to get mugged, every race. I didn't cry about it. I just retired him."

"I don't know exactly what Victor was doing," Smith said Sunday. "My horse overcame it and showed a lot of fight. He finished the race strong and he had to work for it after being taken out (wide).

Really Bob?

I'm sure the CHRB knows whether or not Baffert has ever given a jock instructions and how often he does it. If he's the type of trainer who says "good luck" and gives them a leg up, than what he says is believeable. If he's a control freak who gives instructions every race, than we have a different issue altogether.

[classhandicapper]

True, but that wide on the first turn?

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

[GMB@BP]

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

I have rarely seen horses in high level races go 5 wide on a fast pace on both turns win...........I have seen it in maiden races where the horse is just that much superior but not in a race like this.'

The best argument to him losing next month is that this was a very taxing race, on ability he just seems better than the rest of the horses running.

[Stillriledup]

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.

[ronsmac]

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.Rags to Riches in a race at Santa Anita.It May have been 2 or 3 race's before her Belmont win.

[Stillriledup]

Rags to Riches in a race at Santa Anita.It May have been 2 or 3 race's before her Belmont win.

This wasnt the race you are talking about, but its R-TO-Rs maiden win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlBmhIdCeDY

[classhandicapper]

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.

Watch Big Brown in the Ky Derby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g

He was 4 wide and 4 wide from the 20 post and then drew off by 5 lengths. Maybe not quite as extreme a trip, but he earned a monstrous figure on TG/Sheets and it wasn't even close finish. He drew off. That was a day I thought the outside paths were better without the rail being "dead". He didn't run back to the "ground loaded figure" and of course they all claimed he bounced. But that kind of thing happens at CD and a few other tracks more often than people think. Granted, it's way rarer at SA.

[classhandicapper]

I have rarely seen horses in high level races go 5 wide on a fast pace on both turns win...........I have seen it in maiden races where the horse is just that much superior but not in a race like this.'

The best argument to him losing next month is that this was a very taxing race, on ability he just seems better than the rest of the horses running.

I agree that it is not common and that the race was taxing.

My current thinking is that I am not going to concede the race to him or pass because he's going to be too short a price to take. I plan on using him on top, but only IF I can find really good value underneath him in exotics. Since I suspect his performance was not quite as good as everyone thinks, I will also try to beat him on some tickets with those same horses.

[Stillriledup]

Watch Big Brown in the Ky Derby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g

He was 4 wide and 4 wide from the 20 post and then drew off by 5 lengths. Maybe not quite as extreme a trip, but he earned a monstrous figure on TG/Sheets and it wasn't even close finish. He drew off. That was a day I thought the outside paths were better without the rail being "dead". He didn't run back to the "ground loaded figure" and of course they all claimed he bounced. But that kind of thing happens at CD and a few other tracks more often than people think. Granted, it's way rarer at SA.

For some reason, SB's wide/wide was different than BB's and any others, it's hard to explain, but it seems like the wideness of SB was more extreme just because he seemed to be working hard to keep up to that spot. BB seemed to be rolling "in hand" and not really working all that hard, SB seemed to be working hard if that makes sense.

[ronsmac]

This wasnt the race you are talking about, but its R-TO-Rs maiden win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlBmhIdCeDYI believe it was the Las Virgenes. If i remember correctly she was 5 wide on both turns. I bet against her and she still beat me.

[Stillriledup]

I believe it was the Las Virgenes. If i remember correctly she was 5 wide on both turns. I bet against her and she still beat me.

yes it was. Tried to find video of that was but wasn't able to.

[classhandicapper]

For some reason, SB's wide/wide was different than BB's and any others, it's hard to explain, but it seems like the wideness of SB was more extreme just because he seemed to be working hard to keep up to that spot. BB seemed to be rolling "in hand" and not really working all that hard, SB seemed to be working hard if that makes sense.

It does make sense and I agree it matters.

When I post these kinds of thoughts the conversations often seem to veer off towards some extreme black or white conclusion that can miss the point of what I am saying .

It's not a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. the trip wasn't that bad.

It's a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. it was a very tough trip.

Beyer gave him a 101 figure.

For discussion's sake let's add 13 points for ground loss and another 5-10 for the fact that he was chasing a lively pace, working hard, and getting harassed while wide. That would make him a 119-124 horse.

Suppose I said I think he's actually more of a 110-115 horse at this stage.

I'm acknowledging the tough trip and his quality, but suggesting he's not quite a super horse yet.

[GMB@BP]

It does make sense and I agree it matters.

When I post these kinds of thoughts the conversations often seem to veer off towards some extreme black or white conclusion that can miss the point of what I am saying .

It's not a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. the trip wasn't that bad.

It's a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. it was a very tough trip.

Beyer gave him a 101 figure.

For discussion's sake let's add 13 points for ground loss and another 5-10 for the fact that he was chasing a lively pace, working hard, and getting harassed while wide. That would make him a 119-124 horse.

Suppose I said I think he's actually more of a 110-115 horse at this stage.

I'm acknowledging the tough trip and his quality, but suggesting he's not quite a super horse yet.


I think thats fair.

I think he is about 30-35% to win, maybe slightly higher.....without seeing the field and posts of course. If he is 5/2 that would seem like a good bet, and he wont be, so I will look somewhere else.

No horse is 100% to win, so its very easy to say I dont like a horse........it really should be in context to price.

If SB was 20/1 how many here would really like him to win that race!

[Cratos]

I agree with you. I like Shared Belief but I see something like Candy Boy or Tapiture winning, maybe a Euro invader, Majestic Harbor picking up the pieces. It will be the last thing that any of us expect.

There might be a “sleeper” out there for the BC Classic, but at this time I am taking Shared Belief and Tonalist.

Therefore how good was Shared Belief performance in the Awesome Again Stakes?

From the naked eye it might not be obvious, but using Trakus data the performance was monstrous to say the least.

This horse started approximately 6 path widths from the rail and crossed the line about 4 ½ path widths from the rail.

However what is significant to understand is that if the data is normalized for of all the horses in the race, he would have a time nearly 1 second faster than the second fastest time while running 15 feet further.

[ronsmac]

There might be a “sleeper” out there for the BC Classic, but at this time I am taking Shared Belief and Tonalist.

Therefore how good was Shared Belief performance in the Awesome Again Stakes?

From the naked eye it might not be obvious, but using Trakus data the performance was monstrous to say the least.

This horse started approximately 6 path widths from the rail and crossed the line about 4 ½ path widths from the rail.

However what is significant to understand is that if the data is normalized for of all the horses in the race, he would have a time nearly 1 second faster than the second fastest time while running 15 feet further.Monstrous? That's brave.

[Rex Phinney]

Monstrous? That's brave.

It just plays to the fact that right now most horses don't win unless everything goes their way. Look at the races this year, pretty much every big race was won by a horse who was talented enough to win but still needed the perfect trip.

California Chrome got a couple
Bayern got a couple
Tonalist, Moreno, the list goes on.

[ronsmac]

It just plays to the fact that right now most horses don't win unless everything goes their way. Look at the races this year, pretty much every big race was won by a horse who was talented enough to win but still needed the perfect trip.

California Chrome got a couple
Bayern got a couple
Tonalist, Moreno, the list goes on.Our ideas of monstrous are a little different, but that's what makes the world go round. I thought it was solid race with a slightly compromised trip. He never showed his previous explosiveness, I believe if he ran his best race, he'd have won clear even after being wide against that field. Maybe he'll be better in the classic because he will have to be.

[Tom]

Tonalist and SB have shown some courage and some class.
CC shows he is not much of a race horse unless he gets it all his way, dittos Moreno. Look it his while records - he got lucky one time. Tonalist has show the ability to rate, close and lead, and he does it without drugs. That alone show get him HOY.

[classhandicapper]

Tonalist and SB have shown some courage and some class.
CC shows he is not much of a race horse unless he gets it all his way, dittos Moreno. Look it his while records - he got lucky one time. Tonalist has show the ability to rate, close and lead, and he does it without drugs. That alone show get him HOY.


I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

[Rex Phinney]

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

I would argue that the West Coast trainers are just better at it, they do it more, there has to be some advantage to the fact that all year long trainers are sending West Coast horses back east to run. Really the only time the east coast trainers do it is for the BC or a random race here or there.

One thing I always watch, is this the first time a horse has been on an airplane? Maybe it sounds crazy but think about it, just about every horse in California has probably been on a plane before it even runs a race, coming from Florida or Kentucky. Sometimes you get east coast horses who will go from NY to California, their first time on a plane and do it just a few days before a very tough race.

[GMB@BP]

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

I dont know about that, guys like Pletcher and Clement have had lots of success when shipping............they just dont do it much.

[classhandicapper]

I dont know about that, guys like Pletcher and Clement have had lots of success when shipping............they just dont do it much.

It makes sense to look at it trainer by trainer. I'd focus on ships from NY to CA for the Breeder's Cup (or maybe another really high level stakes on dirt like that). Excluding the synthetic years, I can recall a lot of short priced eastern based horses throwing in sub par races or outright clunkers (some with my money) in some of the early years. I was there for one of them years ago and they all seemed to bomb. Maybe back then it was a different surface???

[Stillriledup]

It makes sense to look it trainer by trainer, but I'd focus on ships east to west for the Breeder's Cup (or maybe another really high level stakes on dirt like that). Even excluding the synthetic years, I can recall a lot of short priced eastern based horses throwing in sub par races or outright clunkers (some with my money). I was there for on one them years ago.

The stereotype is that its harder to ship east to west, but maybe there's just such a bigger sample of West to East types that if one falters, we don't think about it as much. An east to West ship might be more rare and thus, we notice a flop more?

I don't know the answers, but i do know that if i see an East to West shipper, i don't want to see him right off the plane, i want to see him in Calif for weeks getting acclimated. If he just ships in for the race, i'm much more critical (in my own mind) of his chances.

[Rex Phinney]

From a pure hours gained/ lost or miles traveled perspective it is absolutely impossible for it to be harder to travel east to west. Anybody saying that is trying to explain away a bad performance.

Unless you think it has to do with the Earth's gravitational pull or something aliens do while planes are in the air there is no reason to think that.

Somewhere the Euro's with Breeders Cup trophies are laughing.

[Cratos]

I believe the negative impact in shipping from east to west versus west to east is track size and track geometry.

In the east you have the “bigger” racetracks which are easier to adapt too than the “smaller” 1 mile western racetracks.

On the contrary, the “smaller” western racetracks take more of an adjustment for the horses shipping in from the east.

Looking at the major eastern racetracks and you have Belmont Park at 1 ½ miles, Saratoga, Gulfstream Park, and Arlington Park (Midwest) at 1 1/8 miles with both Pimilco and Churchill Downs being 1 mile ovals, but with long straightaways for a 1 mile racetrack.

The exceptions in the east are Woodbine and Monmouth; they are laid out much like the western race tracks.

[classhandicapper]

I just checked the recent couple of years. The NY horses did very well in 2012. There were a couple of disappointments in 2013.

By the time the Classic rolls around there will be plenty of horses from NY to observe to see if they are running back to their form or not.

[taxicab]

This was a good race for SB.
He showed a nice bit of heart winning this one.
It was by far his best effort to date.
I think trainer Baffert owes Espinoza one.
There's no way in the world Espinoza would risk losing favor in the Baffert barn by riding the race he did.
Don't forget, Espinoza rides perhaps the shortest priced horse on BC Saturday(American Pharoah) for Baffert.
Victor wasn't going to do anything out of the ordinary on any of BB horses without checking first.
In terms of the ride itself Espinoza didn't break any rules in any way,shape,or form.
People may not like was Victor did......that's too bad.
There's no rule in horse racing that says a jockey has to bend over backwards to be nice during the running of a race.
Just watch Rajiv Maragh/Calvin Borel/Martin Pedroza ride day in and day out......they take every edge they can(including making it real uncomfortable on heavy chalk).
The fact that the Stewards suspended Espinoza is a joke.
Back to SB....
He doesn't appear to care for Santa Anita.
He just doesn't travel the same way over SA as he does the synthetics.
One other thing that could be a cause for concern for SB is the way he's been "pinwheeling" his left front when he's been set down in the stretch.
Two races in a row the pinwheeling has appeared.....not good.
This might explain SB drifting in a bit at the top of the stretch his in his last couple.

[ronsmac]

This was a good race for SB.
He showed a nice bit of heart winning this one.
It was by far his best effort to date.
I think trainer Baffert owes Espinoza one.
There's no way in the world Espinoza would risk losing favor in the Baffert barn by riding the race he did.
Don't forget, Espinoza rides perhaps the shortest priced horse on BC Saturday(American Pharoah) for Baffert.
Victor wasn't going to do anything out of the ordinary on any of BB horses without checking first.
In terms of the ride itself Espinoza didn't break any rules in any way,shape,or form.
People may not like was Victor did......that's too bad.
There's no rule in horse racing that says a jockey has to bend over backwards to be nice during the running of a race.
Just watch Rajiv Maragh/Calvin Borel/Martin Pedroza ride day in and day out......they take every edge they can(including making it real uncomfortable on heavy chalk).
The fact that the Stewards suspended Espinoza is a joke.
Back to SB....
He doesn't appear to care for Santa Anita.
He just doesn't travel the same way over SA as he does the synthetics.
One other thing that could be a cause for concern for SB is the way he's been "pinwheeling" his left front when he's been set down in the stretch.
Two races in a row the pinwheeling has appeared.....not good.
This might explain SB drifting in a bit at the top of the stretch his in his last couple.By far his best effort? Huh